Who wins Regional and State titles according to Drew Pasteur's
Fantastic 50
rankings? Who do the numbers favor in Week 13? Here are the odds and numbers everyone wants to know...
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Division I Playoffs
#2 St Ignatius (Cleveland) (11-1) by 4 (61%) vs #5 Mentor (11-1)
#4 Whitmer (Toledo) (12-0) by 7 (67%) vs #6 Massillon Washington (Massillon) (11-1)
#7 Pickerington North (Pickerington) (11-1) by 11 (75%) vs #24 Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (10-2)
#3 Colerain (Cincinnati) (12-0) by 12 (77%) vs #10 Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-3)
Division II Playoffs
#32 Aurora (11-1) by 8 (69%) vs #75 Chardon (10-2)
#11 Central Catholic (Toledo) (11-1) by 8 (70%) vs #29 Avon (11-1)
#15 New Albany (10-2) by 8 (69%) vs #47 Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (11-1)
#18 Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (10-2) by 1 (52%) vs #19 Turpin (Cincinnati) (12-0)
Division III Playoffs
#36 St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (10-2) by 2 (56%) vs #46 Chagrin Falls (11-1)
#59 Bellevue (11-1) by 2 (55%) vs #71 Napoleon (11-0-1)
#52 West Holmes (Millersburg) (11-1) by 1 (53%) vs #60 Dover (10-2)
#51 Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (11-1) by 15 (83%) vs #158 Athens (The Plains) (11-1)
Division IV Playoffs
#63 Norwayne (Creston) (12-0) by 2 (56%) vs #78 Brookfield (12-0)
#16 Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (12-0) by 3 (57%) vs #30 Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (12-0)
#86 St Clairsville (12-0) by 11 (75%) vs #175 Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) (10-2)
#55 Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (12-0) by 15 (82%) vs #163 Milton-Union (West Milton) (10-2)
Division V Playoffs
#28 Ursuline (Youngstown) (8-4) by 6 (64%) vs #53 Kirtland (12-0)
#83 Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (11-1) by 10 (73%) vs #156 Patrick Henry (Hamler) (10-2)
#134 Valley (Lucasville) (12-0) by 9 (71%) vs #224 Liberty Union (Baltimore) (10-2)
#17 Coldwater (12-0) by 19 (89%) vs #126 Covington (12-0)
Division VI Playoffs
#121 Mogadore (12-0) by 11 (75%) vs #239 Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) (9-2)
#104 Mc Comb (12-0) by 4 (59%) vs #128 Delphos St John's (8-4)
#176 Newark Catholic (Newark) (10-2) by 1 (51%) vs #181 Danville (11-1)
#97 Marion Local (Maria Stein) (10-2) by 6 (64%) vs #138 St Henry (9-3)
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We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50 again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There's also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.
What is the
Fantastic 50?
The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state's top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.
Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams' ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn't too large. These rankings are
not intended to be "fair" in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.
Who
is Drew Pasteur?
Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina
version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.
Rankings and Predictions
Here are this week's Fantastic 50
rankings. Want to debate? Do it in the JJ forums.
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