[teach1coach2]

Here is the mathematics of Region 11 after week 10.
1. Marlington 30.2583 Will win and be #1.
2. Steubenville 28.0202 Will win and be #2. Way too many out of state teams. I am sure I am off some. Not enough for them to be #1 or drop to #3.
3. East Liverpool 25.5086 if win and 21.7258 if lose to Salem. Will be #3 or #4.
4. Sheridan 23.9500 Will win and be #3 or #4.
5. Minerva 21.7000 if win and 18.1000 if lose to Louisville. Will be #5, #8 or OUT.
6. Licking Valley 20.9700 Will win and be #5 or #6.
7. Edison 20.6418 Will win and be #6 or #7.
8. Dover 20.2500 Will win and be #7 or #8.
9. Salem 19.6500 if win and if lose to East Liverpool 15.0000 MUST win. #8 or OUT P.S. I see them getting very few L2 pointsweek 10 from teams they beat previously.
10. Granville 15.3000 if win. They are OUT either way. Way too many upsets needed for them to get in.

All others mathematically eliminated.

2 Big Games
Louisville and Minerva
East Liverpool and Salem.

Week 11 if #1-8 all win:
#8 Dover at #1 Marlington
#7 Edison at #2 Steubenville
#6 Licking Valley at #3 East Liverpool
#5 Minerva at #4 Sheridan

Week 11 if Minerva loses and East Liverpool wins
#8 Minerva at #1 Marlington
#7 Dover at #2 Steubenville
#6 Edison at #3 East Liverpool
#5 Licking Valley at #4 Sheridan

Week 11 if Minerva wins and East Liverpool loses
#8 Dover at #1 Marlington
#7 Edison at #2 Steubenville
#6 Licking Valley at #3 Sheridan
#5 Minerva at #4 East Liverpool

Week 11 if Minerva loses and East Liverpool loses (I predict this one)
#8 Salem at #1 Marlington
#7 Dover at #2 Steubenville
#6 Edison at #3 Sheridan
#5 Licking Valley at #4 East Liverpool

Methodology of mathematics: L1 points are easy. Win you get them and lose you don’t. L2 points of teams you beat previously is more difficult to predict. Predictions based on records and common opponents. In the vast majority of cases, the affect on overall points was so small it did not matter.

[teach1coach2]

Update below.

[teach1coach2]

Two games remain that determine the pairings in Region 11.
Edison vs. Indian Creek (rivals)
Granville vs. Newark Catholic (both teams defeated by Licking Valley).

A Granville win over D6 Newark Catholic gives Licking Valley 3.5 more L2 points (Finish behind Edison if Edison wins).
A Newark Catholic win over D3 Granville gives Licking Valley 5 more L2 points (Finish ahead of Edison if Edison wins).


If Edison loses (not the likely outcome) then
#8 Minerva at #1 Marlingon
#7 Dover at #2 Steubenville
#6 Salem at #3 Sheridan
#5 Licking Valley at #4 East Liverpool

If Edison wins and Granville beats Newark Catholic
#8 Dover at #1 Marlingon
#7 Salem at #2 Steubenville
#6 Licking Valley at #3 Sheridan
#5 Edison at #4 East Liverpool

If Edison wins and Newark Catholic beats Granville
#8 Dover at #1 Marlingon
#7 Salem at #2 Steubenville
#6 Edison at #3 Sheridan
#5 Licking Valley at #4 East Liverpool

So if you are hoping for the neighbor school battle between Licking Valley and Sheridan, then you want Edison and Newark Catholic to win Saturday night.