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  • sfkflounder
    Reply to Northwest Ohio Athletic League 2014
    sfkflounder
    I understand kids graduate every year and teams look different every year but the league losing QB's like Schimoeller, Suntken, and Wyse (who have all started for 3 years) is going to have some affect...
    Today, 02:46 PM
  • NC Rattlesnake
    Reply to Connect the post
    NC Rattlesnake
    water fall
    Today, 02:10 PM
  • bird
    Reply to Cincinnati Reds 2014
    bird
    Reds are up 2-1 heading to the ninth inning. Sam LeCure is due up fourth this inning. He just struck out the side on 11 pitches in the eighth inning, his first inning of work. Assuming his spot doesn't...
    Today, 02:08 PM

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  • The Orioles signed Reds outfielder Xavier Paul to a minor league contract. Paul's a good bat off the bench, but with the signing of Shoemacher, the jobs of Robinson, Paul and possibly Heisey are in doubt. The Reds have to go on the cheap in a few positions, and the bench is an easy one.

    Comment


    • Nice article about Bronson Arroyo on ESPN:

      http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove13/st...gn-dotted-line

      He's obviously a very thoughtful guy. Every Reds writer has said he's the best guy to interview in the locker room, and they'll really miss him when he leaves. Hard to get a sense on where he'll be in 2014 as of right now.

      Comment


      • 14Red
        14Red commented
        Editing a comment
        Fantastic article. Bronson's like the old dog in the neighborhood, at first he didn't fit in Cincy, remember the fondness he kept telling the Cincy meida about the east coast and Boston, then the blister on his finger from playing the guitar too much. But over the years, he's mellowed and really become a clubhouse leader in Cincy. The Reds couldn't give him away 5 years ago, and he became one of their most reliable starters the last few seasons.
        The Reds will play the waiting game with Bronson. Not sure the market will come down as far as the Reds need it to, but then again, without a trade, the Reds currently have 5 starters. There just isn't a market for a 37 years old soft tossing right hander who's a #4 or #5 starter.

      • 82wolve82
        82wolve82 commented
        Editing a comment
        Name 5 teams that had a better #4 starter than Arroyo last year. Name 3 teams that had a better #5. You can't.

        Your #4 starter will get 30+ starts, just as many as your #1. Your #5 starter will get at least 25 depending on how the schedule breaks. I'm stunned that Arroyo is not getting more action from any team that has money and is pretending to have a chance for the playoffs.

    • According to John Fay, Walt Jocketty is sounding like things are pretty quiet for the Reds and likely to stay that way:

      http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...oves-unlikely/

      So with about six weeks until spring training gets under way, let's take Jocketty at his word. How would the Reds look with the current lineup? Missing Choo is going to create a black hole. I'm not counting on Hamilton to fill it too well but would love to be wrong. Better hitting from Cozart and Frazier would help make up for it as well. Phillips will need to be better. Votto may have to rely less on walks. And how do the Reds fill the hole in the rotation that Arroyo's departure leaves?

      Comment


      • Well here are some thoughts on the Reds' outlook for next year, and it's hard to disagree with too much of it:

        http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2014/1/4...reat-to-the-nl

        While the Reds should have a good team and could contend for the postseason, it's hard to see them winning the division unless a lot of things go their way.

        Comment


        • These articles are worthless. We all know the Reds have not significantly upgraded, no stunning revelation there. But this is baseball, you don't need to just go spend money to get better. Jhonny Peralta??? I'll hold out on deeming him an upgrade. He's a career American Leaguer who does not field very well. The Cardinals are built on pitching, defense and timely hitting. The Cardinals WILL NOT, I repeat, WILL NOT hit out of their minds with runners in scoring position like last season. It's not possible. Many of their players played way over their heads. They do have great young pitching, I'll give them that. But are they truely long time major leaguers, or are did they just have some beginners luck? The Pirates, I think they may be closer to the 74 win team two years ago than the 94 win team they were last year. Can they do it two years in row?
          My synopsis is the Reds will contend in the Central. They have the offense, defense and especially pitching to get the job done.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by 14Red View Post
            These articles are worthless.
            Just because you don't agree with them doesn't mean they're worthless.

            Originally posted by 14Red View Post
            We all know the Reds have not significantly upgraded, no stunning revelation there. But this is baseball, you don't need to just go spend money to get better.
            Agree...somewhat.

            Originally posted by 14Red View Post
            Jhonny Peralta??? I'll hold out on deeming him an upgrade. He's a career American Leaguer who does not field very well.
            Last year, from the SS position the Cardinals were 29th in the majors in batting average (.222), 27th in OBP (.280), and 27th in OPS (.580).

            Last year, Jhonny Peralta hit .303, had a .358 on-base percentage, and a .815 OPS. He could have a bad year at the plate and he will still be a big upgrade.

            Last year, from the SS position the Cardinals had a .979 fielding percentage. Peralta's fielding percentage was .991. That's not the best defensive metric, but it certainly doesn't suggest that he won't be a defensive upgrade as well.

            Originally posted by 14Red View Post
            The Cardinals are built on pitching, defense and timely hitting. The Cardinals WILL NOT, I repeat, WILL NOT hit out of their minds with runners in scoring position like last season. It's not possible. Many of their players played way over their heads. They do have great young pitching, I'll give them that. But are they truly long time major leaguers, or are did they just have some beginners luck?
            They won't hit with RISP the way they did last year. But I wouldn't bank on "beginners luck" being the reason that they were so good last year.

            Originally posted by 14Red View Post
            The Pirates, I think they may be closer to the 74 win team two years ago than the 94 win team they were last year. Can they do it two years in row?
            On what are you basing your prediction? They might not win 94 games this year, but they've won more games each season for the past three years.

            Originally posted by 14Red View Post
            My synopsis is the Reds will contend in the Central. They have the offense, defense and especially pitching to get the job done.
            They will likely contend but they're definitely not the favorites this year. A lot depends on the health of certain players, but on paper the Reds have less pitching and less hitting than they did last year.

            Comment


            • Here is how I assess the Reds off-season and chances for 2014. They did not make a lot of moves because they do not need a lot of moves. Like any team, the Reds need to have their key guys stay healthy, and have their younger guys improve a little.

              Given how much time they missed in 2013, having Ludwick and Cueto healthy in 2014 are two huge "additions". Cingrani was in the rotation for at least two-thirds of the season (maybe 18-20 starts?) so we are not plugging him in for Arroyo, we are plugging in Cueto for Arroyo. I'll take that any day if Johnny is healthy.

              In the OF, instead of asking Hamilton to replace Choo offensively, which he cannot possibly do, lets see how we feel about having Hamilton and Ludwick replace Choo and the LF platoon. The "dream team" LF platoon of Heisey/Paul/Robinson split about 600 ABs almost evenly, and they combined for approximately .245 BA / .315 OBP / 7 SB / 16 HR / 63 RBI . We all know Choo's numbers were awesome. Combine his numbers with the LF numbers and for the combined LF/CF spots we have about .265 BA / .370 OBP / 27 SB / 37 HR / 117 RBI. If healthy, I think the Hamilton/Ludwick combo can match the BA and RBI numbers, they will probably fall short in the HR and OBP categories, and will blow away the SB number.

              The young guys (Cozart / Frazier / Mesoraco) need to make incremental improvements. Lets get Frazier and Mesoraco from .235 up to about .250. Both will add to their HR / RBI totals if they do so. Let's pencil in .250 / 24 HR / 75 RBI for Frazier and .245 / 20 HR / 65 RBI for Mesoraco. These are not incredible stretches. As for Cozart, I personally think he is on the cusp of stardom. I don't think September was a fluke - he is getting it figured out. He is a great athlete, plays great defense, and I think he jumps from .255 to about .270 this year, with 17 HR, 70 RBI, and his first All-Star appearance.

              Assuming reasonably good health, I'd say 91-93 wins for the Reds feels about right.

              I have the Cardinals in the same range. Glad they lost Beltran, but they still have a great team (Holliday, Molina, Craig, Adams, Peralta) and their young pitching is awesome. "Beginners luck" might be the silliest idea ever posted here. They have 6 young studs all throwing 95+ with wicked stuff. 1 or 2 of them might have a drop off, but they are here to stay.

              As for the Pirates, given the age and talent of their best players, they are not going away either. But I do think their pitching had some good fortune last year, some guys had career years. I'd say they are 86-88 wins, certainly not in the 74 range. McCutcheon, Marte, Alvarez, Walker and Martin are the real deal.

              Should be another great summer. I wish it were starting now. Tired of freezing my rear-end off.

              Comment


              • Those are some good points.

                Cingrani made 18 starts last year. We'll see if he's ready to go up to 30 starts...if indeed he does wind up in the rotation.

                Cueto's health is a huge factor. If healthy he is one of the NL's best. But last year he was supposed to be healthy three or four times only to go back to the DL. Most troubling is that nobody on the Reds' medical team really seemed to have any idea what the problem was.

                Ludwick and Hamilton are big question marks; Ludwick due to age (he will turn 36 during the year) and Hamilton due to inexperience and suspicion about his ability to get on base.

                I'd love for Mesoraco, Frazier, and Cozart to all improve this year (and I'd hesitate to call them "young" - Frazier will be 28 this year, Cozart will turn 29 during the season). While they may not need to make huge jumps, it's still a lot to think that all three guys are going to improve from last year. You're more optimistic about Cozart than I am. I'd love to be wrong.

                Your checklist is assuming that a lot of things go right - Cingrani can be more efficient and last the whole year, Cueto comes back healthy, Ludwick is solid for the whole year, Hamilton makes a successful transition, Mesoraco/Frazier/Cozart all improve. Even if they do all of these things I don't see them beating the Cardinals but probably the Pirates.

                And let's not forget some of the other players:
                - Phillips needs to be better than he was last year
                - Votto's defining characteristic cannot be his ability to draw walks
                - Chapman must be used more effectively

                Only 39 days until pitchers and catchers report!

                Comment


                • A lot of things went right for the Cardinals last year, more than you would suspect. I look for the karma to go away from them a little. Votto's productivity has to be better (mind you, not his on base percentage, his productivity). Yes, there are a lot of things the Reds need to go right to be there in September, but judging the market and contracts, it has to be that way. The national reporters don't see it that way. They think the Reds can play the money game with all free agents. As much as we wanted to keep Choo, it was not possible. I think we'll be pleasantly surprised with Hamilton's ability to create runs for this team. He may only hit .250, but when he's on base, he'll score more because he's always in scoring position.

                  Comment


                  • Which national reporters thought the Reds were going to re-sign Choo? They're all noting that he's gone, but I don't know of any who thought the Reds were going to be able to bring him back.

                    A lot went right for the Cardinals last year...because they're good. Yes their .330 average with RISP was ridiculous and won't be repeated again, but they had the fifth-best ERA in the NL last year, including the second-best ERA among starters.

                    St. Louis' NL ranks in runs scored over the past three years: 1st, 2nd, 1st.

                    If you're relying on "karma" and "beginners luck" to bring the Cardinals back to earth, then you're already hoping for a wild card spot. The Reds have good players, but the Cardinals' are better.

                    Seeing as Billy Hamilton only hit .256 at Louisville last year, I would be extremely happy if he were able to hit .250 this year.

                    Comment


                    • 14Red
                      14Red commented
                      Editing a comment
                      If I recall in the article attached a few posts ago, the writer mentioned the Reds were quiet in the free agent signings. My response is yes, and they have to be. Don't have the Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers money to just throw out there.
                      Before you hand the division over to the Cardinals, let's just play this one out. We've got as much talent as they do. I firmly believe that.

                    • bird
                      bird commented
                      Editing a comment
                      I'm not handing anything to the Cardinals, but I'm acknowledging that they will be the division favorites for a reason, the same way the Reds were division favorites in 2011 and 2012 for a reason.

                  • Let's all enjoy Homer Bailey this year, in what will likely be his last season with the Reds...

                    http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...-be-difficult/

                    This is not exactly news, but Jocketty has essentially confirmed it.

                    Comment


                    • You usually don't jump to conclusions bird, but you did here.

                      GMs frequently use a public forum to affect a negotiation. Jocketty said that Bailey is going to be "difficult to sign", but he also said in that article that Bailey has done very well, and that Bailey is currently the only player (of those up for arbitration) that the Reds are pursuing for a long term deal. So he is establishing publicly that the Reds like Bailey, the Reds want Bailey long term, but he has concerns about the price tag. This is a negotiation tactic. Walt's pretty good at this.

                      Having said that, if Bailey's sole goal is maximum $$, he may be gone after this season. I'm sure the Reds need to work within a budget, and they probably won't spend huge/long-term on Latos, Cueto and Bailey. But if Cueto has another dodgy year health-wise, I think the Reds will pony up the money for Homer.

                      Comment


                      • bird
                        bird commented
                        Editing a comment
                        I don't think it's just about the Reds ponying up the money for Bailey. From what I've heard he's just not to keen on staying in Cincinnati. We'll see; I'm perhaps looking for this type of article because I'm slanted towards the idea that Bailey wants to leave Cincinnati.

                    • The madness continues in baseball. The Dodgers signed Clayton Kershaw to a record, 7 year, $215 million dollar contract. No doubt Kershaw is one of the top pitchers in baseball, but I thought of one name, actually two, when I heard of this. Barry Zito and Kevin Brown. Both signed huge contracts in the last 10-15 years, only for their original teams to be kicking themselves just a few years into the contracts. Why? Pitchers, especially power pitchers, don't last that long. The Rays signed David Price, their stud, to a one year $14 million dollar contract. That's much more team friendly.

                      Comment


                      • bird
                        bird commented
                        Editing a comment
                        You'd make a great GM. For the Astros.

                        You think the Dodgers could have signed Kershaw to a one year deal? Or a two year deal? Or for anything in the neighborhood of $14 million? Keep dreaming. And with the Dodgers' coffers, there is no need to.

                        And here are a few notes on the David Price deal:

                        http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-bi...0164--mlb.html

                        http://mlb.si.com/2014/01/16/david-p...d-arbitration/

                        Doesn't sound like he's going to be anywhere near $14M per year after this season.

                        Barry Zito is anything but a power pitcher, he was almost 29 when he signed his deal with the Giants, and he didn't break down. He just wasn't any good.

                        If you're talking about the contract Kevin Brown signed with the Dodgers, he was 33 when he signed that contract.

                        Kershaw is only 25. When this current contract is up, he will be younger than Kevin Brown was at the START of his 7-year contract with the Dodgers.

                        Tom Verducci is generally critical of these long term contracts, but he thinks the Dodgers did fairly well with the Kershaw contract.

                        http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb...ers-extension/

                        Moral of the story:
                        1) Starting pitchers are expensive.
                        2) If you want to get the prime of an elite player's career, you're probably going to have to sign him to a contract that will take him beyond that prime. Though I'm not sure Kershaw won't still be in the prime of his career at the end of this contract.
                        Last edited by bird; 01-16-2014, 09:40 PM.

                    • Reds announced a few signings today, nothing earth shattering. Sam LeCure, 2 year deal for $3 mill, signed Chris Heisey to a 1 year, $1.76 mill deal and Alfredo Simon to a 1 year deal. All team friendly, good contracts. Not sure where Heisey fits into the puzzle, probably be the 4th or 5th outfielder.

                      Comment


                      • Reds agree to a contract with starting pitcher Mike Leake. 1 year, $6 million. This is an excellent contract for both the Reds and Leake. At times, Leake was the Reds most consistent pitcher. Baby Bronson, as he's healthy and takes the ball nearly every start.

                        Comment

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