Frantz, Pasteur, CalPreps: Who We Say Wins (and Why) the D-VII Regional Semifinals

EFvsDP

For the past four years playoff point guru Drew Pasteur and I have engaged in a friendly competition of playoff pick’em. His Formula vs My Feel. It’s been good fun and highly competitive. This season it continues. Here’s a look at who we think wins in Week 12. As for Week 11? We tied 94-18 each. That’s the second time in three years we’ve tied in the regional quarters. My key wins? Colerain, Mapleton and Columbus DeSales. DP’s big wins? Columbiana Crestview, Bowling Green and West Liberty-Salem.

As always, enjoy or destroy.

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Eric Frantz vs Drew Pasteur Playoff Pick History

State Finals

EF Picks 2013: 4-3 (57%)
EF Picks 2012: 5-1 (83%)
EF Picks 2011: 3-3 (50%)
EF Picks 2010: 4-2 (67%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 3-4 (43%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 5-1 (83%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 5-1 (83%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: N/A

State Semifinal History

EF Picks 2013: 11-3 (79%)
EF Picks 2012: 7-5 (58%)
EF Picks 2011: 9-3 (75%)
EF Picks 2010: 8-4 (67%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 9-5 (64%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 6-6 (50%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 6-6 (50%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 7-5 (58%)

Regional Final History

EF Picks 2013: 24-4 (86%)
EF Picks 2012: 16-8 (67%)
EF Picks 2011: 20-4 (83%)
EF Picks 2010: 17-7 (71%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 25-3 (89%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 19-5 (79%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 18-6 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 16-8 (67%)

Regional Semifinal History

EF Picks 2013: 40-16 (71%)
EF Picks 2012: 39-9 (81%)
EF Picks 2011: 31-17 (65%)
EF Picks 2010: 35-13 (73%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 41-15 (73%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 39-9 (81%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 35-13 (73%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 37-11 (77%)

Regional Quarterfinal History

EF Picks 2014: 94-18 (84%)
EF Picks 2013: 93-19 (83%)
EF Picks 2012: 72-24 (75%)
EF Picks 2011: 76-20 (79%)
EF Picks 2010: 72-24 (75%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2014: 94-18 (84%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2013: 89-23 (79.5%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 72-24 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 82-14 (85%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 77-19 (80%)

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2014 D-VII REGIONAL SEMIFINAL PICKS

Region 23

1 Norwalk St. Paul (10-1) vs. 4 Ashland Mapleton (8-3) at Bellevue Stadium
EF: St. Paul
DP: St Paul (Norwalk) (10-1) by 16 (84%) vs Mapleton (Ashland) (8-3)
CP: St. Paul 38-21
*This is a rematch of a Week 9 Firelands Conference game won by SP 34-28. No one has played SP that close except for Huron, which beat the Flyers 14-7 in Week 3. Since then SP has won eight straight. They will make it nine. SP head coach Jon Livengood is one of the best there is. And hats off to Mapleton. The Mounties deserve this run/season.

2 Berlin Center Western Reserve (10-1) vs. 6 Lucas (7-4) at Orrville Red Rider Stadium
EF: Western Reserve
DP: Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (10-1) by 20 (90%) vs Lucas (7-4)
CP: Western Reserve 34-21
*Whew. Right Western Reserve fans? Toronto took it too close to the limit. And hats off to Lucas for avenging a Week 1 loss to Plymouth with a 37-34 Week 11 win over the Big Red. Looking for a difference maker? Try Lucas junior RB/LB Mason Galco who ran for 285 yards and three TDs last week. He also had a game-clinching INT with two minutes left.

Region 24

1 Arlington (10-1) vs. 4 McComb (8-3) at Findlay Donnell Stadium at 7 p.m.
EF: Arlington
DP: Arlington (10-1) by 10 (73%) vs Mc Comb (8-3)
CP: Arlington 31-14
*Rematch of a Week 9 game won by Arlington 38-7. Expect a closer score but the same result. This is Arlington’s region to lose. The Red Devils just beat a MAC team in the first round. Enough said.

2 Tiffin Calvert (9-2) vs. 3 Columbus Grove (7-4) at Findlay Donnell Stadium at 1:30 p.m.
EF: Calvert
DP: Calvert (Tiffin) (9-2) by 1 (52%) vs Columbus Grove (7-4)
CP: Columbus Grove 28-21
*Calvert got as high as No. 2 in the ONG JJH Power Poll during the regular season. Grove lost four straight in Weeks 4-7 before going on its current four game win streak. Calvert is the choice in a close one. Calvert senior Tyler Long is a difference maker and the best player on the field.

Region 25

1 Shadyside (10-0) vs. 4 Bainbridge Paint Valley (8-3) at Zanesville Maysville Athletic Complex
EF: Shadyside
DP: Shadyside (10-0) by 16 (85%) vs Paint Valley (Bainbridge) (8-3)
CP: Shadyside 26-17
*I was a big believer in Danville all seaseon long and now Shadyside is too. The Blue Devils took the Tigers to the limit last week before falling 27-24. Consider it a wake-up call for Shadyside. Paint Valley is no slouch. The Bearcats won their first playoff game since the 2003 team went to the regional finals last week with a convincing win over Tuscarawas Central Catholic. PV forced six turnovers, including four INTs by junior Anthony McFadden. This is not going to be an easy win for Shadyside, but it will get it done.

2 Glouster Trimble (11-0) vs. 3 Caldwell (11-0) at New Lexington High School
EF: Trimble
DP: Trimble (Glouster) (11-0) by 6 (64%) vs Caldwell (11-0)
CP: Trimble 35-26
*Caldwell and its undefeated record pose a serious challenge to Trimble, but the Tomcats will prevail against the best team they’ve faced to this point. A showdown with Shadyside – Southeast Ohio’s other premiere small school program – lingers.

Region 26

1 Maria Stein Marion Local (11-0) vs. 5 Fort Recovery (7-4) at Wapakoneta Harmon Field
EF: Marion Local
DP: #11 Marion Local (Maria Stein) (11-0) by 31 (98%) vs Fort Recovery (7-4)
CP: Marion Local 40-12
*Fort Recovery is in the midst of the greatest season in program history. Marion Local is in the midst of one of the greatest runs in state history. The Flyers are marching toward their fourth state title. Nothing is stopping them. Not even another MAC team. ML senior RB Jacey Goettemoeller is going to end his career as one of the most decorated small school football players in state history. Four rings outweighs a lot of individual records. Just a matter of time.

2 Sidney Lehman Catholic (9-2) vs. 6 Troy Christian (8-3) at Piqua Alexander Stadium, Purk Field
EF: Lehman Catholic
DP: Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (9-2) by 24 (94%) vs Troy Christian (Troy) (8-3)
CP: Lehman Catholic 46-20
*Lehman has been one of Ohio’s best surprises this season. The Cavaliers earned their seventh playoff berth in nine years and 13th overall and have proven to be the region’s second-best team to this point. Troy Christian is living a dream season under former Troy head coach Steve Nolan who gave the program new life last season. Veteran coach Dick Roll has Lehman peaking at the right time. The Cavs have won nine straight and had three scoring drives of two plays or less in their 42-7 quarterfinal win over small school stalwart Covington. One of those plays? A 99-yard TD run by RB Skylar Brown.

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