Ohio HS Football Playoff Berth Predictions, Possibilities and Percentages…Who is in? Who needs another win?

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According to playoff point guru Drew Pasteur, 138 teams have secured playoff berths. Here’s who they are and what region they reside…CLICK HERE.

That being said…here’s how the field shapes up (and who might fill it out) heading into Week 10.

These numbers are based on at least 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  Only teams with a playoff berth probability of at least 2% are shown, until very late in the season.  For those interested in more details about the methodology and results, they were published here.  If you can’t access that site, but would like a copy of the paper, then send me an e-mail.

In parenthesis are conditional Harbin point values and conditional playoff probabilities, based on how many games a team wins.  For example, 7W-18.9H-63% would mean that if that team wins exactly 7 games, they would have an estimated 18.9 Harbin points and a 63% chance of earning a berth.

2013 Playoff Teams Prediction Results
Week #4: 186/224 (83%)
Week #5: 195/224 (87%)
Week #6: 196/224 (88%)
Week #7: 203/224 (91%)
Week #8: 210/224 (94%)
Week #9: 217/224 (97%)

2012 Playoff Teams Prediction Results
Week #2: 133/192 (69%)
Week #3: 145/192 (76%)
Week #4: 143/192 (74%)
Week #5: 155/192 (81%)
Week #6: 161/192 (84%)
Week #7: 166/192 (86%)
Week #8: 173/192 (90%)
Week #9: 175/192 (91%)

Region 1 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 16.58)
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 100%
St Edward (Lakewood) 100%
Mentor 100%
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 100%
Elyria 100%
Hudson 100%
Wadsworth 100%
Westerville Central (Westerville) 100%
Berea-Midpark (Berea) 100%
Olentangy Liberty (Powell) 100%
Solon 99% (6W-99% 7W-100% )
Lorain 99% (6W-97% 7W-99% )
Perry (Massillon) 98% (6W-98% 7W-100% )
Glenoak (Canton) 94% (6W-84% 7W-100% )
Strongsville 76% (6W-74% 7W-100% )
Whitmer (Toledo) 71% (6W-46% 7W-100% )
Brunswick 56% (6W-1% 7W-100% )
Jackson (Massillon) 3% (6W-6% )
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 1% (4W-2% )
Hoover (North Canton) 1% (4W-1% )
Euclid 1% (4W-1% )
Stow-Munroe Falls (Stow) 1% (7W-1% )

Region 2 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.65)
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 100%
Lincoln (Gahanna) 100%
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 100%
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 100%
Centerville 100%
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 100%
Colerain (Cincinnati) 100%
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 100%
Wayne (Huber Heights) 100%
Lakota East (Liberty Township) 100%
Miamisburg 100%
Springboro 100%
Elder (Cincinnati) 99% (6W-99% 7W-100% )
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 92% (5W-64% 6W-100% )
Mason 83% (7W-5% 8W-99% )
Central Crossing (Grove City) 80% (6W-20% 7W-91% )
Westerville South (Westerville) 24% (5W-2% 6W-26% )
Lebanon 15% (6W-99% )
Lakota West (West Chester) 6% (5W-33% )
Upper Arlington (Columbus) 1% (6W-14% )
Lancaster 1% (7W-1% )

Region 3 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.74)
Bedford 100%
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 100%
South (Willoughby) 100%
Madison 100%
Mayfield 100%
Maple Heights 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% )
Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights) 99% (7W-84% 8W-100% )
Garfield Heights 82% (8W-31% 9W-90% )
North Olmsted 13% (6W-1% 7W-24% )
Riverside (Painesville) 7% (7W-31% )
Rhodes (Cleveland) 1% (8W-1% )

Region 4 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 20.10)
Nordonia (Macedonia) 100%
Perrysburg 100%
Midview (Grafton) 100%
Highland (Medina) 100%
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 99% (6W-99% 7W-100% )
Avon 99% (8W-99% 9W-100% )
Fremont Ross (Fremont) 95% (6W-46% 7W-99% )
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 89% (6W-25% 7W-99% )
Springfield (Holland) 10% (6W-1% 7W-14% )
Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 6% (6W-7% )
Ellet (Akron) 1% (8W-1% )

Region 5 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 16.65)
Olentangy (Lewis Center) 100%
Watkins Memorial (Pataskala) 100%
Wooster 100%
Teays Valley (Ashville) 100%
Dublin Scioto (Dublin) 99% (5W-96% 6W-99% )
Worthington Kilbourne (Columbus) 95% (6W-64% 7W-99% )
Hamilton Township (Columbus) 73% (6W-29% 7W-100% )
Ashland 62% (5W-42% 6W-62% )
Mount Vernon 50% (5W-13% 6W-90% )
Northland (Columbus) 18% (7W-1% 8W-100% )
Dublin Jerome (Dublin) 2% (5W-24% )
Bradley (Hilliard) 1% (6W-1% )
Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) 1% (5W-1% )

Region 6 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.45)
Lima Senior (Lima) 100%
La Salle (Cincinnati) 100%
Harrison 100%
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 100%
Kings (Kings Mills) 100%
Northwest (Cincinnati) 99% (6W-98% 7W-100% )
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 94% (5W-93% 6W-100% )
Loveland 86% (6W-8% 7W-100% )
Glen Este (Cincinnati) 16% (5W-9% 6W-17% )
Butler (Vandalia) 3% (5W-93% )
Xenia 2% (6W-2% )
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 1% (5W-1% )
Anderson (Cincinnati) 1% (5W-7% )

Region 7 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.60)
Chardon 100%
Tallmadge 100%
Louisville 100%
Aurora 100%
Hubbard 100%
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 100%
Poland Seminary (Poland) 99% (8W-99% 9W-100% )
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 69% (7W-49% 8W-100% )
Revere (Richfield) 31% (6W-51% )
Archbishop Hoban (Akron) 1% (7W-4% )
Howland (Warren) 1% (7W-1% )

Region 8 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.45)
Bowling Green 100%
Central Catholic (Toledo) 100%
Clyde 100%
Norwalk 100%
Perkins (Sandusky) 100%
Buckeye (Medina) 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% )
Madison Comprehensive (Mansfield) 93% (6W-79% 7W-99% )
Columbian (Tiffin) 89% (6W-51% 7W-98% )
Rocky River 11% (5W-1% 6W-39% )
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 4% (4W-28% )
Maumee 3% (4W-2% 5W-100% )
Napoleon 1% (6W-1% )

Region 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.85)
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 100%
Jackson 100%
Dover 100%
Granville 100%
Logan Elm (Circleville) 100%
Athens (The Plains) 100%
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 98% (7W-96% 8W-100% )
New Philadelphia 68% (7W-39% 8W-100% )
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 22% (6W-1% 7W-23% )
Chillicothe 11% (7W-16% )
Sheridan (Thornville) 1% (8W-1% )

Region 10 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 17.42)
Wapakoneta 100%
Western Brown (Mount Orab) 100%
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 100%
Bellefontaine 100%
Kenton Ridge (Springfield) 100%
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 100%
Bellbrook 98% (7W-94% 8W-100% )
Talawanda (Oxford) 47% (7W-60% )
Franklin 24% (6W-40% )
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 20% (6W-20% )
New Richmond 7% (7W-21% )
Taft (Cincinnati) 2% (7W-2% )
Shawnee (Springfield) 1% (6W-1% )

Region 11 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.60)
Benedictine (Cleveland) 100%
Crestwood (Mantua) 100%
Woodridge (Peninsula) 100%
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 100%
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 99% (5W-99% 6W-100% )
Bay (Bay Village) 87% (6W-87% 7W-100% )
Field (Mogadore) 79% (7W-69% 8W-100% )
Perry 50% (6W-91% )
Chagrin Falls 45% (6W-99% )
Lakeview (Cortland) 36% (7W-99% )
Jefferson Area (Jefferson) 2% (8W-7% )
West Branch (Beloit) 1% (6W-1% )

Region 12 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.60)
Bellevue 100%
Kenton 100%
Triway (Wooster) 100%
Port Clinton 100%
Wauseon 100%
Genoa Area (Genoa) 99% (8W-99% )
Galion 93% (6W-91% 7W-100% )
Keystone (La Grange) 76% (7W-1% 8W-99% )
River Valley (Caledonia) 20% (6W-1% 7W-20% )
Firelands (Oberlin) 9% (7W-62% )
Bryan 3% (6W-1% 7W-3% )
Scott (Toledo) 1% (8W-1% )
Lake (Millbury) 1% (8W-1% )

Region 13 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 16.33)
Beechcroft (Columbus) 100%
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 100%
Steubenville 100%
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 100%
Maysville (Zanesville) 99% (8W-99% 9W-100% )
Licking Valley (Newark) 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% )
Bexley (Columbus) 89% (7W-59% 8W-99% )
Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 53% (8W-53% )
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 48% (5W-1% 6W-100% )
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 10% (8W-12% )

Region 14 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 17.50)
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 100%
Norwood 100%
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 100%
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 100%
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 100%
Taylor (Cleves) 100%
Circleville 64% (6W-25% 7W-100% )
Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) 38% (5W-1% 6W-41% )
Miami Trace (Washington Court House) 37% (6W-1% 7W-41% )
Monroe 31% (7W-33% )
Indian Hill (Cincinnati) 18% (6W-83% )
Minford 12% (7W-36% )
Unioto (Chillicothe) 1% (9W-1% )

Region 15 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.00)
Liberty (Youngstown) 100%
Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 100%
Ursuline (Youngstown) 100%
Gilmour Academy (Gates Mills) 99% (7W-97% 8W-99% )
Beachwood 98% (5W-97% 6W-100% )
Crestview (Columbiana) 97% (5W-74% 6W-99% )
United (Hanoverton) 88% (6W-54% 7W-99% )
Girard 68% (7W-2% 8W-99% )
Cardinal (Middlefield) 30% (7W-2% 8W-41% )
Black River (Sullivan) 13% (5W-55% )
Independence 5% (5W-4% 6W-100% )
East Palestine 2% (5W-8% )
Harrison Central (Cadiz) 1% (5W-1% )

Region 16 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.45)
Chippewa (Doylestown) 100%
Huron 100%
Pleasant (Marion) 100%
Coldwater 100%
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 100%
Eastwood (Pemberville) 99% (8W-98% 9W-100% )
Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 77% (6W-14% 7W-100% )
Columbia (Columbia Station) 59% (8W-3% 9W-68% )
Delta 53% (8W-1% 9W-78% )
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 11% (7W-1% 8W-14% )

Region 17 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.05)
Coshocton 100%
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 100%
Ironton 100%
St Clairsville 100%
Wheelersburg 100%
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 99% (6W-99% 7W-100% )
Martins Ferry 99% (8W-99% 9W-100% )
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 63% (8W-63% )
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 37% (7W-22% 8W-100% )

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.60)
Madeira (Cincinnati) 100%
Badin (Hamilton) 100%
Greeneview (Jamestown) 100%
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 100%
Shroder (Cincinnati) 100%
West Jefferson 99% (5W-97% 6W-99% )
Mariemont (Cincinnati) 98% (6W-95% 7W-99% )
Waynesville 98% (6W-93% 7W-99% )
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 2% (6W-81% )
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 2% (6W-49% )
North Union (Richwood) 1% (6W-1% )
Brookville 1% (5W-1% )

Region 19 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.19)
Kirtland 100%
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 100%
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 100%
Loudonville 100%
Mc Donald 100%
Mogadore 100%
Springfield (New Middletown) 89% (7W-72% 8W-100% )
Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) 89% (7W-7% 8W-100% )
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 8% (7W-9% )
Smithville 6% (7W-9% )
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 6% (7W-6% )
South Range (Canfield) 1% (7W-1% )

Region 20 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.90)
Wynford (Bucyrus) 100%
Tinora (Defiance) 100%
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 100%
Spencerville 100%
Crestview (Convoy) 100%
Van Buren 79% (7W-5% 8W-98% )
Carey 69% (8W-1% 9W-99% )
Wayne Trace (Haviland) 66% (8W-66% )
Ayersville (Defiance) 48% (8W-42% 9W-100% )
Jefferson (Delphos) 34% (7W-1% 8W-99% )
Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) 2% (8W-7% )
Gibsonburg 1% (9W-2% )

Region 21 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.46)
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 100%
Fredericktown 100%
Valley (Lucasville) 100%
Centerburg 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% )
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% )
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 99% (7W-96% 8W-100% )
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 94% (8W-11% 9W-99% )
Oak Hill 37% (7W-37% )
Belpre 36% (8W-38% )
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 26% (5W-99% )
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 6% (7W-6% )
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 2% (6W-97% )

Region 22 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 12.05)
Miami East (Casstown) 100%
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 100%
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 100%
Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) 100%
Minster 100%
Twin Valley South (West Alexandria) 95% (7W-92% 8W-100% )
Anna 43% (6W-81% )
Mechanicsburg 39% (7W-3% 8W-100% )
Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) 31% (6W-3% 7W-34% )
Versailles 31% (6W-69% )
Madison Plains (London) 26% (5W-1% 6W-99% )
St Henry 19% (6W-41% )
Ada 17% (6W-97% )

Region 23 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 8.90)
Mapleton (Ashland) 100%
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 100%
St Paul (Norwalk) 100%
Wellsville 100%
Plymouth 100%
Toronto 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% )
Lucas 99% (5W-99% 6W-100% )
Mathews (Vienna) 52% (6W-3% 7W-100% )
St Mary Central Catholic (Sandusky) 46% (5W-12% 6W-49% )
Catholic Central (Steubenville) 2% (6W-2% )
Richmond Heights 1% (6W-11% )
Trinity (Garfield Heights) 1% (3W-2% )

Region 24 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 7.25)
Calvert (Tiffin) 100%
Arlington 100%
Columbus Grove 100%
Mc Comb 100%
Pandora-Gilboa (Pandora) 100%
Toledo Christian (Toledo) 100%
Leipsic 73% (4W-5% 5W-99% )
St John’s (Delphos) 51% (4W-51% )
Edgerton 40% (5W-56% )
Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 29% (4W-98% )
Hicksville 3% (5W-3% )
Mohawk (Sycamore) 2% (5W-3% )
Cory-Rawson (Rawson) 1% (4W-69% )
North Baltimore 1% (5W-1% )
Buckeye Central (New Washington) 1% (5W-1% )
Edon 1% (4W-1% )
Danbury (Lakeside) 1% (4W-1% )

Region 25 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.98)
Paint Valley (Bainbridge) 100%
Caldwell 100%
Trimble (Glouster) 100%
Shadyside 100%
Tuscarawas Central Catholic (New Philadelphia) 99% (7W-70% 8W-99% )
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 98% (6W-98% 7W-100% )
Harvest Preparatory (Canal Winchester) 98% (7W-42% 8W-99% )
Danville 57% (6W-68% )
Frontier (New Matamoras) 47% (6W-17% 7W-55% )
Millersport 1% (8W-46% )

Region 26 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 9.00)
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 100%
Fort Recovery 100%
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 100%
Miami Valley Christian (Cincinnati) 100%
Troy Christian (Troy) 96% (6W-90% 7W-100% )
Covington 90% (5W-20% 6W-99% )
Triad (North Lewisburg) 87% (5W-68% 6W-87% )
Fort Loramie 86% (6W-29% 7W-100% )
Riverside (De Graff) 21% (6W-3% 7W-100% )
Gamble Montessori (Cincinnati) 18% (5W-37% )
New Miami (Hamilton) 1% (7W-100% )
Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 1% (4W-1% )
Upper Scioto Valley (Mc Guffey) 1% (5W-7% )

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