The Fantastic 50: State Championship Football Odds

These probabilities are based on at least 10,000 simulations of the playoffs. Only teams with at least a 0.2% (1-in-500) chance of winning a state title are listed.

In 2012, two of the state champions were at the top of their divisional listings after the regular season – Toledo Central Catholic in D-II and Coldwater in D-V. Marion Local was 4th in D-VI at 11.6%, Clinton-Massie 4th in D-IV at 10.3%, Akron SVSM was 7th in D-III at 6.2%, and the longshot was Archbishop Moeller, 11th in D-I at 0.4%.

In 2011, three of the six state champions were listed in the top two of their division at the end of the regular season (Trotwood-Madison first at 42%, Kirtland second at 17%, and Marion Local second at 22%). For the second year in a row, a true underdog won Division IV; this year it was Norwayne, which entered the playoffs at 1.0% (and 11th on the D-IV list).

In 2010, five state champions were listed in the top two of their division at the end of the regular season (St. Edward 1st at 36%, Maple Heights 2nd at 10%, Bishop Watterson 2nd at 22%, Ursuline 1st at 80%, and Delphos St. John’s 1st at 72%). However, in Division IV, Bishop Hartley was quite a long-shot listed 17th (of 32 teams) most likely to win that title, at 0.8%.

Also in 2009, five state champions were listed in the top two of their division (Winton Woods – tied for 2nd at 14%, Cardinal Mooney 1st at 45%, Archbishop Alter 1st at 55%, Ursuline 1st at 33%, and Norwalk St. Paul 2nd at 14%). The one surprise was D-I champ Hilliard Davidson, listed 9th at 4%.

Division 1 State Championship Probabilities
St Edward (Lakewood) 25.0%
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 22.0%
Colerain (Cincinnati) 16.2%
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 10.1%
Mentor 9.9%
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 6.4%
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 3.4%
Wayne (Huber Heights) 2.3%
Lakota West (West Chester) 0.7%
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 0.7%
Elder (Cincinnati) 0.7%
Hudson 0.6%
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 0.5%
Westerville Central (Westerville) 0.4%
Centerville 0.3%

Division 2 State Championship Probabilities
Loveland 26.8%
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 12.2%
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 11.0%
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 8.8%
Highland (Medina) 8.4%
Zanesville 7.6%
Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) 5.2%
New Albany 4.6%
Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights) 4.1%
St Francis De Sales (Toledo) 3.6%
Worthington Kilbourne (Columbus) 1.8%
Nordonia (Macedonia) 1.7%
Avon 1.1%
St Charles (Columbus) 0.9%
Ellet (Akron) 0.5%
Bedford 0.4%
Dublin Scioto (Dublin) 0.3%
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 0.2%

Division 3 State Championship Probabilities
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 45.1%
Central Catholic (Toledo) 38.9%
Perkins (Sandusky) 3.2%
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 2.5%
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 2.2%
Hubbard 1.7%
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 1.4%
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 0.8%
Wapakoneta 0.7%
Clyde 0.6%
Aurora 0.6%
New Philadelphia 0.5%
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 0.5%
Poland Seminary (Poland) 0.3%
Columbian (Tiffin) 0.3%
Dover 0.2%

Division 4 State Championship Probabilities
Kenton 42.4%
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 25.0%
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 5.6%
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 5.4%
Chagrin Falls 4.6%
Genoa Area (Genoa) 4.6%
Bryan 2.2%
Licking Valley (Newark) 1.7%
River Valley (Caledonia) 1.5%
Struthers 1.5%
Valley View (Germantown) 1.3%
Steubenville 1.2%
Philo (Duncan Falls) 0.5%
Benedictine (Cleveland) 0.5%
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 0.4%
Urbana 0.4%
Wauseon 0.3%

Division 5 State Championship Probabilities
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 56.8%
Coldwater 16.5%
Ursuline (Youngstown) 9.9%
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 5.0%
North Union (Richwood) 2.6%
Wheelersburg 2.2%
West Jefferson 1.9%
Eastwood (Pemberville) 1.2%
Badin (Hamilton) 0.6%
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 0.6%
Northwestern (West Salem) 0.5%
Crestview (Columbiana) 0.4%
Huron 0.4%
Manchester (Akron) 0.3%
Loudonville 0.2%

Division 6 State Championship Probabilities
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 37.0%
Kirtland 24.3%
Newark Catholic (Newark) 12.4%
Tinora (Defiance) 5.2%
Valley (Lucasville) 5.0%
Jefferson (Delphos) 4.2%
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 3.0%
South Range (North Lima) 2.6%
Wayne Trace (Haviland) 1.5%
Mechanicsburg 0.7%
Mogadore 0.6%
Crestview (Convoy) 0.6%
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 0.6%
Miami East (Casstown) 0.5%
Brookfield 0.3%
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 0.3%
Ada 0.3%
Centerburg 0.2%

Division 7 State Championship Probabilities
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 72.1%
Shadyside 4.9%
Covington 3.9%
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 3.8%
Triad (North Lewisburg) 3.4%
St Paul (Norwalk) 3.2%
Delphos St John’s 1.9%
Mc Comb 1.7%
Trimble (Glouster) 1.4%
Catholic Central (Steubenville) 1.3%
Arlington 1.0%
Danville 0.8%
Leipsic 0.3%

State Championship Odds by Region

Division I
Region 1 – 62%
Region 2 – 38%

Division II
Region 3 – 17%
Region 4 – 24%
Region 5 – 20%
Region 6 – 38%

Division III
Region 7 – 48%
Region 8 – 43%
Region 9 – 4%
Region 10 – 5%

Division IV
Region 11 – 32%
Region 12 – 51%
Region 13 – 4%
Region 14 – 13%

Division V
Region 15 – 11%
Region 16 – 24%
Region 17 – 59%
Region 18 – 6%

Division VI
Region 19 – 29%
Region 20 – 15%
Region 21 – 55%
Region 22 – 2%

Division VII
Region 23 – 8%
Region 24 – 5%
Region 25 – 8%
Region 26 – 80%

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