The Fantastic 50: Regional Championship Football Odds

These probabilities are based on at least 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season and playoffs; for each team, the percentage chance of winning the region is shown.  Teams whose chance of winning is below 0.5% are not shown.

Region 1 Championship Probabilities
St Edward (Lakewood) 38%
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 32%
Mentor 18%
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 8%
Hudson 2%
Westerville Central (Westerville) 2%

Region 2 Championship Probabilities
Colerain (Cincinnati) 33%
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 26%
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 15%
Wayne (Huber Heights) 9%
Lakota West (West Chester) 3%
Elder (Cincinnati) 3%
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 3%
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 2%
Centerville 2%
Fairfield 1%
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 1%
Northmont (Clayton) 1%

Region 3 Championship Probabilities
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 50%
Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights) 29%
Bedford 8%
Madison 5%
South (Willoughby) 4%
Roosevelt (Kent) 2%
Brush (Lyndhurst) 2%
Riverside (Painesville) 1%

Region 4 Championship Probabilities
Highland (Medina) 29%
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 26%
St Francis De Sales (Toledo) 18%
Nordonia (Macedonia) 10%
Avon 8%
Ellet (Akron) 5%
Perrysburg 3%
Avon Lake 1%

Region 5 Championship Probabilities
Zanesville 27%
New Albany 25%
Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) 25%
Worthington Kilbourne (Columbus) 12%
St Charles (Columbus) 7%
Dublin Scioto (Dublin) 4%

Region 6 Championship Probabilities
Loveland 61%
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 32%
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 3%
Kings (Kings Mills) 1%
Withrow (Cincinnati) 1%
Harrison 1%
Northwest (Cincinnati) 1%

Region 7 Championship Probabilities
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 78%
Hubbard 9%
Aurora 5%
Poland Seminary (Poland) 4%
Louisville 2%
West Geauga (Chesterland) 1%
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 1%
Marlington (Alliance) 1%

Region 8 Championship Probabilities
Central Catholic (Toledo) 75%
Perkins (Sandusky) 16%
Clyde 6%
Columbian (Tiffin) 3%
Norwalk 1%

Region 9 Championship Probabilities
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 35%
New Philadelphia 19%
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 17%
Dover 11%
Athens (The Plains) 9%
Chillicothe 7%
Brookhaven (Columbus) 1%
Logan Elm (Circleville) 1%

Region 10 Championship Probabilities
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 32%
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 27%
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 20%
Wapakoneta 17%
Franklin 3%
Shawnee (Springfield) 1%

Region 11 Championship Probabilities
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 61%
Chagrin Falls 22%
Struthers 10%
Benedictine (Cleveland) 5%
Woodridge (Peninsula) 1%
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 1%

Region 12 Championship Probabilities
Kenton 68%
Genoa Area (Genoa) 13%
Bryan 8%
River Valley (Caledonia) 7%
Wauseon 3%
Galion 1%
Triway (Wooster) 1%

Region 13 Championship Probabilities
Licking Valley (Newark) 30%
Steubenville 27%
Philo (Duncan Falls) 18%
Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 12%
John Glenn (New Concord) 7%
Maysville (Zanesville) 3%
Bloom-Carroll (Carroll) 2%
Bexley (Columbus) 1%

Region 14 Championship Probabilities
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 33%
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 30%
Valley View (Germantown) 13%
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 7%
Urbana 6%
Circleville 4%
Miami Trace (Washington Court House) 4%
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 2%

Region 15 Championship Probabilities
Ursuline (Youngstown) 63%
Crestview (Columbiana) 14%
Manchester (Akron) 9%
Beachwood 4%
Fairless (Navarre) 4%
Liberty (Youngstown) 3%
Gilmour Academy (Gates Mills) 3%
Black River (Sullivan) 1%

Region 16 Championship Probabilities
Coldwater 51%
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 23%
Eastwood (Pemberville) 10%
Northwestern (West Salem) 6%
Huron 5%
Loudonville 4%
Columbia (Columbia Station) 2%

Region 17 Championship Probabilities
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 84%
Wheelersburg 11%
Martins Ferry 2%
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 2%
St Clairsville 1%

Region 18 Championship Probabilities
North Union (Richwood) 28%
West Jefferson 25%
Badin (Hamilton) 18%
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 16%
Waynesville 6%
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 6%
Madeira (Cincinnati) 1%

Region 19 Championship Probabilities
Kirtland 62%
South Range (North Lima) 16%
Mogadore 7%
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 6%
Brookfield 4%
Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) 3%
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 2%

Region 20 Championship Probabilities
Tinora (Defiance) 31%
Jefferson (Delphos) 22%
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 18%
Wayne Trace (Haviland) 15%
Crestview (Convoy) 7%
Ada 4%
Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) 2%

Region 21 Championship Probabilities
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 60%
Newark Catholic (Newark) 24%
Valley (Lucasville) 14%
Centerburg 1%
Bellaire 1%

Region 22 Championship Probabilities
Mechanicsburg 30%
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 24%
Miami East (Casstown) 19%
Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) 11%
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 7%
Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) 6%
National Trail (New Paris) 2%
Williamsburg 1%

Region 23 Championship Probabilities
St Paul (Norwalk) 41%
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 39%
Danville 17%
Wellsville 2%

Region 24 Championship Probabilities
Delphos St John’s 30%
Mc Comb 26%
Arlington 21%
Leipsic 10%
Calvert (Tiffin) 7%
Hicksville 3%
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 2%
Edon 1%

Region 25 Championship Probabilities
Shadyside 50%
Trimble (Glouster) 24%
Catholic Central (Steubenville) 22%
Malvern 3%
Caldwell 1%

Region 26 Championship Probabilities
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 81%
Triad (North Lewisburg) 9%
Covington 8%
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 1%

Results from Previous Years

In 2012, I predicted 11 of the 24 regional champions, as compared to 8 teams seeded #1 that won their regions.  The champs that I didn’t have listed first or second in their regions were STVM (19%, #6 seed) in R9, Bellevue (16%, #2 seed) in R10, Moeller (9%, #3 seed) in R4, Liberty Union (7%, #6 seed) in R19, and Mentor (4%, #4 seed) in R1.

Prior to the 2011 playoffs, my region championship predictions were correct in 12 of the 24 regions.  Only one team listed below 10% won a region, but it was quite a surprise, as Hicksville was listed with a 0.8% chance to win Region 18.

In 2010, before the playoffs began, I correctly predicted 10 of the 24 region winners, while only 5 teams seeded #1 won their regions.  19 of the 24 winners were listed first or second in my regional odds.  Of the seven teams that I had as odds-on favorites (better than 50/50), six of the seven won their regions.  The longshots were Wayne (6%, #8 seed) in Region 4 and Buchtel (6%, #5 seed) in Region 9.

In 2009, these odds correctly predicted 14 of the 24 region winners; by comparison, only 7 teams seeded #1 won their regions.  Of the twelve teams that I had listed with 50% or better chances, all twelve won their regions.  There were some longshots that won their regions: Ottawa-Glandorf (8%, #5 seed) in Region 14, Grove City Christian (3%, #6 seed) in Region 23, and Marion-Franklin (2%, #8 seed) in Region 7.

In 2008, 21 of the 24 regional champions were teams that I had listed either first or second in the region at the start of the playoffs. Archbishop Hoban (6% in R5), Sunbury Big Walnut (14% in R10), and Columbus Eastmoor Academy (8% in R12) were the three longshot winners.

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