The Fantastic 50: Week 7 Playoff Bracket Projections

Based on at least 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, here’s the most likely outcomes of conference championship races. Yep. You read that right. How cool? Very. Thanks to math guru Drew Pasteur, heading into the halfway point we can already breakdown the conference and league championship odds. Every Ohio race is broken down…

We know how much Ohio high school football fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at. Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster, we’re proud to offer Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 again this fall. In addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the Fantastic 50?
The Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams, regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules, so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a 21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams, provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system, an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games. Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew Pasteur?
Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where he was a high school teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has published a North Carolina version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects postseason participants.

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This Week’s Game Predictions

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This Week’s League Title Possibilities

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This Week’s Playoff Bracket Projections

During the regular season, these projections are based on the aggregate results of at least 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  For each team, a projected record is determined (based on the media number of wins across the simulations), followed by a projected Harbin point total (from the median number of Harbin points earned in finishing with the projected number of wins).

Region 1 Projections
1) St Edward (Lakewood) (8-1) 37.30
2) Hudson (9-1) 35.85
3) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (9-1) 30.25
4) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (9-1) 29.89
5) Mentor (8-2) 29.65
6) Westerville Central (Westerville) (8-2) 26.52
7) Cleveland Heights (9-1) 26.35
8) Stow-Munroe Falls (Stow) (8-2) 26.10
9) Elyria (8-2) 25.75
10) Marysville (8-2) 24.65
11) Wadsworth (8-2) 24.25
12) Whitmer (Toledo) (7-3) 22.89
13) Solon (6-4) 21.00
14) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (6-4) 20.86
15) Brunswick (6-4) 18.70
16) Green (6-4) 17.95

Region 2 Projections
1) Centerville (10-0) 43.38
2) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (10-0) 36.10
3) Colerain (Cincinnati) (10-0) 33.69
4) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (10-0) 32.42
5) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (8-2) 30.38
6) Lakota West (West Chester) (8-2) 29.65
7) Fairfield (9-1) 28.20
8) Elder (Cincinnati) (7-3) 28.11
9) Wayne (Huber Heights) (8-2) 27.22
10) Springboro (9-1) 26.45
11) Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) (8-2) 23.50
12) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (7-2) 20.78
13) Miamisburg (7-3) 19.10
14) Lebanon (7-3) 18.85
15) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (6-4) 18.40
16) Northmont (Clayton) (7-3) 18.19

Region 3 Projections
1) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (9-1) 28.83
2) Roosevelt (Kent) (9-1) 24.50
3) South (Willoughby) (8-2) 23.70
4) Madison (8-2) 20.70
5) Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights) (8-2) 19.30
6) Brush (Lyndhurst) (7-3) 18.40
7) Bedford (8-2) 18.10
8) North Olmsted (7-3) 14.60

Region 4 Projections
1) Avon (10-0) 29.15
2) Nordonia (Macedonia) (9-1) 29.05
3) Highland (Medina) (9-1) 26.45
4) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (8-2) 25.99
5) Ellet (Akron) (10-0) 24.85
6) Perrysburg (8-2) 23.00
7) Avon Lake (8-2) 22.50
8) Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) (7-3) 18.85

Region 5 Projections
1) New Albany (10-0) 35.60
2) Zanesville (10-0) 29.00
3) Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) (10-0) 27.65
4) Dublin Scioto (Dublin) (7-3) 24.25
5) Licking Heights (Pataskala) (9-1) 24.15
6) Worthington Kilbourne (Columbus) (8-2) 24.00
7) Northland (Columbus) (7-2) 20.94
8) Olentangy (Lewis Center) (8-2) 18.50

Region 6 Projections
1) Loveland (9-1) 31.65
2) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (9-1) 31.31
3) Northwest (Cincinnati) (9-1) 24.75
4) Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) (8-2) 22.60
5) Withrow (Cincinnati) (8-2) 19.90
6) La Salle (Cincinnati) (5-5) 17.53
7) Kings (Kings Mills) (6-4) 15.67
8) Harrison (6-4) 14.97

Region 7 Projections
1) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (9-1) 29.70
2) Hubbard (9-1) 28.25
3) West Geauga (Chesterland) (8-2) 27.20
4) Marlington (Alliance) (8-2) 25.20
5) Poland Seminary (Poland) (9-1) 25.20
6) Aurora (8-2) 19.90
7) Louisville (8-2) 19.70
8) Kenston (Chagrin Falls) (6-4) 19.15

Region 8 Projections
1) Central Catholic (Toledo) (10-0) 36.20
2) Clyde (9-1) 25.75
3) Perkins (Sandusky) (10-0) 23.60
4) Columbian (Tiffin) (9-1) 23.60
5) Norwalk (9-1) 22.75
6) Napoleon (7-3) 17.85
7) Padua Franciscan (Parma) (5-5) 13.10
8) Defiance (6-4) 11.90

Region 9 Projections
1) Athens (The Plains) (10-0) 28.10
2) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (9-1) 26.10
3) New Philadelphia (9-1) 22.65
4) Granville (8-2) 22.35
5) Chillicothe (9-1) 22.23
6) Brookhaven (Columbus) (7-3) 18.95
7) Sheridan (Thornville) (8-2) 18.95
8) Logan Elm (Circleville) (7-3) 18.05

Region 10 Projections
1) Western Brown (Mount Orab) (10-0) 23.99
2) Wapakoneta (9-1) 23.00
3) Shawnee (Springfield) (9-1) 22.05
4) Tippecanoe (Tipp City) (9-1) 22.05
5) Franklin (8-2) 20.90
6) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (6-3) 20.47
7) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (7-2) 19.11
8) Celina (8-2) 17.70

Region 11 Projections
1) Chagrin Falls (7-3) 21.35
2) Minerva (7-3) 19.80
3) Woodridge (Peninsula) (8-2) 19.50
4) Fairview (Fairview Park) (9-1) 17.95
5) Struthers (7-3) 17.90
6) Perry (6-4) 17.25
7) John Hay (Cleveland) (8-2) 17.15
8) Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) (6-4) 16.80

Region 12 Projections
1) Kenton (10-0) 28.75
2) River Valley (Caledonia) (9-1) 26.20
3) Genoa Area (Genoa) (10-0) 23.55
4) Bryan (10-0) 23.03
5) Galion (10-0) 22.00
6) Upper Sandusky (9-1) 18.45
7) Lake (Millbury) (8-2) 17.95
8) Wauseon (8-2) 17.84

Region 13 Projections
1) Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) (9-1) 24.50
2) Philo (Duncan Falls) (8-2) 19.60
3) Maysville (Zanesville) (8-2) 18.80
4) Licking Valley (Newark) (7-3) 16.25
5) Steubenville (7-3) 15.12
6) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (4-5) 15.00
7) Bloom-Carroll (Carroll) (6-4) 14.50
8) Bexley (Columbus) (7-3) 13.95

Region 14 Projections
1) Valley View (Germantown) (9-1) 25.35
2) Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) (8-2) 23.59
3) Miami Trace (Washington Court House) (8-2) 23.24
4) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (8-2) 22.57
5) Urbana (10-0) 21.25
6) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (8-2) 20.94
7) Wyoming (Cincinnati) (8-2) 19.20
8) Gallia Academy (Gallipolis) (7-3) 16.23

Region 15 Projections
1) Manchester (Akron) (8-2) 23.35
2) Fairless (Navarre) (8-2) 18.25
3) Liberty (Youngstown) (7-3) 15.65
4) Black River (Sullivan) (7-3) 15.60
5) Crestview (Columbiana) (8-2) 13.75
6) Beachwood (5-5) 13.45
7) Gilmour Academy (Gates Mills) (7-3) 12.20
8) Ursuline (Youngstown) (3-6) 12.17

Region 16 Projections
1) Columbia (Columbia Station) (10-0) 22.80
2) Coldwater (9-1) 22.55
3) Eastwood (Pemberville) (8-2) 20.06
4) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (10-0) 19.80
5) Northwestern (West Salem) (8-2) 18.15
6) Loudonville (9-1) 16.85
7) Huron (7-3) 16.75
8) Orrville (6-4) 14.90

Region 17 Projections
1) Wheelersburg (10-0) 27.05
2) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (8-2) 25.74
3) Liberty Union (Baltimore) (10-0) 25.60
4) St Clairsville (10-0) 24.92
5) Martins Ferry (8-2) 19.11
6) Fairland (Proctorville) (7-3) 15.90
7) Southeastern (Chillicothe) (6-4) 10.75
8) Ironton (3-7) 9.75

Region 18 Projections
1) Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) (10-0) 22.85
2) West Jefferson (9-1) 22.85
3) Madeira (Cincinnati) (9-1) 19.60
4) North Union (Richwood) (9-1) 18.10
5) Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) (6-4) 17.94
6) Badin (Hamilton) (7-3) 16.75
7) Mariemont (Cincinnati) (6-4) 13.75
8) Reading (6-4) 13.60

Region 19 Projections
1) Kirtland (10-0) 21.32
2) South Range (North Lima) (10-0) 20.45
3) Mogadore (9-1) 18.75
4) St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) (8-2) 17.54
5) Springfield (New Middletown) (8-2) 16.18
6) Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) (9-1) 15.59
7) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (7-3) 15.05
8) Brookfield (7-3) 14.33

Region 20 Projections
1) Jefferson (Delphos) (10-0) 21.85
2) Wayne Trace (Haviland) (10-0) 20.55
3) Tinora (Defiance) (8-2) 16.45
4) Ada (7-3) 15.10
5) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (7-3) 14.25
6) Crestview (Convoy) (7-3) 14.05
7) Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) (8-2) 14.00
8) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (6-3) 13.56

Region 21 Projections
1) Bishop Ready (Columbus) (9-1) 26.10
2) Valley (Lucasville) (9-1) 21.25
3) Newark Catholic (Newark) (8-2) 16.30
4) Centerburg (9-1) 16.00
5) Bellaire (6-4) 15.27
6) Columbus Academy (Gahanna) (7-3) 14.15
7) Monroe Central (Woodsfield) (7-3) 13.75
8) Oak Hill (8-2) 13.40

Region 22 Projections
1) Miami East (Casstown) (9-1) 17.90
2) West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) (9-1) 16.50
3) Tri-County North (Lewisburg) (8-2) 15.90
4) Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) (9-1) 15.33
5) Williamsburg (7-3) 14.68
6) Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) (8-2) 13.76
7) Mechanicsburg (7-3) 11.70
8) National Trail (New Paris) (7-3) 11.68

Region 23 Projections
1) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (10-0) 26.10
2) St Paul (Norwalk) (9-1) 17.90
3) Danville (8-2) 14.66
4) Lowellville (7-3) 13.27
5) Wellsville (7-3) 12.45
6) Mapleton (Ashland) (7-3) 11.95
7) Trinity (Garfield Heights) (5-5) 9.42
8) Mineral Ridge (6-4) 8.45

Region 24 Projections
1) Mc Comb (9-1) 16.75
2) St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) (7-3) 13.95
3) Arlington (8-2) 13.45
4) Leipsic (7-3) 11.27
5) Calvert (Tiffin) (5-5) 10.10
6) Pandora-Gilboa (Pandora) (7-3) 9.55
7) Edon (7-3) 8.85
8) Mohawk (Sycamore) (4-6) 7.95

Region 25 Projections
1) Shadyside (10-0) 23.30
2) Trimble (Glouster) (10-0) 22.95
3) Catholic Central (Steubenville) (9-1) 17.83
4) Malvern (9-1) 17.79
5) Southern (Racine) (8-2) 14.15
6) Caldwell (7-3) 10.35
7) Tuscarawas Central Catholic (New Philadelphia) (6-4) 9.57
8) Beallsville (6-4) 9.40

Region 26 Projections
1) Triad (North Lewisburg) (10-0) 23.05
2) Covington (10-0) 21.30
3) Paint Valley (Bainbridge) (10-0) 19.20
4) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (9-1) 18.10
5) Fort Loramie (9-1) 17.64
6) Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (8-2) 13.91
7) Notre Dame (Portsmouth) (8-2) 13.60
8) Cedarville (7-3) 10.70

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