The Fantastic 50: Week 7 Playoff Berth Odds

Based on at least 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, here’s the most likely outcomes of conference championship races. Yep. You read that right. How cool? Very. Thanks to math guru Drew Pasteur, heading into the halfway point we can already breakdown the conference and league championship odds. Every Ohio race is broken down…

We know how much Ohio high school football fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at. Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster, we’re proud to offer Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 again this fall. In addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the Fantastic 50?
The Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams, regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules, so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a 21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams, provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system, an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games. Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew Pasteur?
Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where he was a high school teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has published a North Carolina version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects postseason participants.

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This Week’s Game Predictions

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This Week’s League Title Possibilities

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This Week’s Playoff Berth Possibilities

These numbers are based on at least 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  Only teams with a playoff berth probability of at least 2% are shown.  For those interested in more details about the methodology and results, they were published here.  If you can’t access that site, but would like a copy of the paper, then send me an e-mail.

In parenthesis are conditional Harbin point values and conditional playoff probabilities, based on how many games a team wins.  For example, 7W-18.9H-63% would mean that if that team wins exactly 7 games, they would have an estimated 18.9 Harbin points and a 63% chance of earning a berth.

2012 Playoff Teams Prediction Results
Week #2: 133/192 (69%)
Week #3: 145/192 (76%)
Week #4: 143/192 (74%)
Week #5: 155/192 (81%)
Week #6: 161/192 (84%)
Week #7: 166/192 (86%)
Week #8: 173/192 (90%)
Week #9: 175/192 (91%)

Region 1 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.09)
St Edward (Lakewood) 100%
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 100%
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 100%
Hudson 100%
Cleveland Heights 99% (7W-91% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Westerville Central (Westerville) 99% (6W-89% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Mentor 99% (5W-23% 6W-97% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Stow-Munroe Falls (Stow) 99% (5W-23% 6W-85% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Marysville 98% (6W-75% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Elyria 97% (5W-11% 6W-77% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 93% (4W-21% 5W-76% 6W-94% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Wadsworth 90% (6W-31% 7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Whitmer (Toledo) 88% (5W-25% 6W-85% 7W-100% )
Solon 81% (4W-3% 5W-42% 6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Brunswick 70% (5W-15% 6W-77% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Green 58% (5W-3% 6W-63% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Warren G Harding (Warren) 50% (6W-11% 7W-91% 8W-100% )
Shaker Heights 32% (5W-1% 6W-13% 7W-76% 8W-100% )
Strongsville 21% (5W-2% 6W-50% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Medina 8% (5W-10% 6W-84% 7W-100% )
Jackson (Massillon) 6% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-21% )
Olentangy Liberty (Powell) 4% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-98% )
Glenoak (Canton) 3% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-72% )
North Royalton 3% (4W-1% 5W-54% 6W-100% )

Region 2 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.15)
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 100%
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 100%
Centerville 100%
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 100%
Colerain (Cincinnati) 100%
Lakota West (West Chester) 99% (5W-89% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Fairfield 99% (6W-59% 7W-97% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Elder (Cincinnati) 99% (5W-86% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Wayne (Huber Heights) 99% (5W-27% 6W-82% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Springboro 95% (6W-2% 7W-46% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 87% (6W-8% 7W-85% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 79% (5W-3% 6W-44% 7W-99% )
Miamisburg 79% (5W-5% 6W-19% 7W-83% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 72% (5W-10% 6W-76% 7W-100% )
Northmont (Clayton) 70% (6W-18% 7W-64% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Lebanon 68% (6W-5% 7W-84% 8W-100% )
Sycamore (Cincinnati) 50% (6W-1% 7W-24% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 34% (4W-2% 5W-55% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Oak Hills (Cincinnati) 21% (4W-1% 5W-8% 6W-89% 7W-100% )
Upper Arlington (Columbus) 20% (5W-1% 6W-88% 7W-100% )
Reynoldsburg 9% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-99% )
Lincoln (Gahanna) 6% (5W-1% 6W-63% 7W-100% )
Westerville South (Westerville) 5% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-99% )
Mason 2% (4W-1% 5W-29% 6W-100% )

Region 3 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.30)
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 100%
South (Willoughby) 99% (6W-100% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Roosevelt (Kent) 99% (6W-70% 7W-98% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights) 99% (6W-33% 7W-85% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Madison 99% (6W-44% 7W-94% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Bedford 97% (6W-32% 7W-82% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Brush (Lyndhurst) 92% (5W-30% 6W-87% 7W-99% )
Mayfield 47% (4W-23% 5W-84% 6W-100% )
North Olmsted 35% (5W-2% 6W-15% 7W-49% 8W-99% )
Riverside (Painesville) 19% (5W-1% 6W-29% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Westlake 5% (4W-1% 5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-95% )
Garfield Heights 4% (6W-1% 7W-15% )
Parma 2% (5W-2% 6W-69% )

Region 4 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 19.40)
Avon 100%
Highland (Medina) 99% (7W-90% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Nordonia (Macedonia) 99% (7W-88% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Ellet (Akron) 98% (8W-49% 9W-98% 10W-100% )
Perrysburg 95% (6W-27% 7W-86% 8W-100% )
Avon Lake 94% (6W-17% 7W-65% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 91% (6W-17% 7W-88% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
St Francis De Sales (Toledo) 37% (6W-1% 7W-41% 8W-99% )
Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 25% (6W-2% 7W-41% )
Midview (Grafton) 21% (7W-3% 8W-41% )
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 17% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-71% )
Lake (Uniontown) 14% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-96% )
Anthony Wayne (Whitehouse) 4% (6W-2% 7W-90% )
North Ridgeville 2% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-80% )
Bowsher (Toledo) 2% (7W-1% 8W-3% )

Region 5 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.95)
New Albany 99% (7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) 99% (8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Zanesville 99% (8W-100% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Dublin Scioto (Dublin) 97% (5W-31% 6W-96% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Licking Heights (Pataskala) 92% (7W-17% 8W-93% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Worthington Kilbourne (Columbus) 87% (6W-24% 7W-64% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Northland (Columbus) 76% (5W-1% 6W-23% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Olentangy (Lewis Center) 54% (7W-1% 8W-49% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
St Charles (Columbus) 43% (6W-1% 7W-26% 8W-94% )
Ashland 17% (6W-1% 7W-33% )
Walnut Ridge (Columbus) 11% (7W-1% 8W-19% )
Dublin Jerome (Dublin) 8% (5W-1% 6W-53% 7W-100% )
Hamilton Township (Columbus) 7% (6W-1% 7W-31% )
Bradley (Hilliard) 4% (6W-5% 7W-95% )
Watkins Memorial (Pataskala) 2% (6W-1% 7W-39% )

Region 6 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.60)
Loveland 100%
Northwest (Cincinnati) 99% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 99% (6W-88% 7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Withrow (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-89% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Kings (Kings Mills) 74% (5W-6% 6W-67% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
La Salle (Cincinnati) 69% (4W-22% 5W-91% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Harrison 40% (5W-2% 6W-44% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Anderson (Cincinnati) 36% (4W-3% 5W-67% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Glen Este (Cincinnati) 27% (5W-11% 6W-91% 7W-100% )
Butler (Vandalia) 16% (5W-2% 6W-42% 7W-96% )
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 15% (5W-14% 6W-90% 7W-100% )
Princeton (Cincinnati) 7% (4W-1% 5W-17% 6W-91% )
Turpin (Cincinnati) 6% (4W-1% 5W-20% 6W-100% )
Lima Senior (Lima) 5% (4W-1% 5W-4% 6W-62% 7W-100% )
Walnut Hills (Cincinnati) 2% (4W-1% 5W-32% )

Region 7 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 20.00)
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Hubbard 99% (6W-67% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
West Geauga (Chesterland) 99% (6W-83% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Poland Seminary (Poland) 99% (8W-87% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Marlington (Alliance) 96% (6W-25% 7W-91% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Aurora 76% (7W-6% 8W-66% 9W-99% )
Louisville 70% (7W-2% 8W-59% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 62% (5W-1% 6W-48% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Howland (Warren) 33% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-81% 8W-100% )
Alliance 24% (6W-1% 7W-39% 8W-99% )
Chardon 21% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-47% )
Tallmadge 12% (6W-3% 7W-78% 8W-100% )
Norton 3% (8W-1% 9W-46% )
Canton South (Canton) 3% (6W-1% 7W-30% 8W-100% )

Region 8 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 12.00)
Central Catholic (Toledo) 100%
Clyde 100%
Norwalk 100%
Perkins (Sandusky) 100%
Columbian (Tiffin) 100%
Napoleon 97% (4W-10% 5W-75% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Padua Franciscan (Parma) 59% (4W-20% 5W-86% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Defiance 45% (4W-3% 5W-16% 6W-58% 7W-100% )
Elida 34% (5W-2% 6W-29% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Buckeye (Medina) 24% (4W-1% 5W-4% 6W-43% 7W-98% )
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 15% (4W-56% 5W-98% )
Cloverleaf (Lodi) 11% (4W-26% 5W-92% )
Maumee 7% (4W-5% 5W-81% 6W-100% )
Rogers (Toledo) 2% (4W-1% 5W-54% )
University School (Hunting Valley) 2% (4W-3% 5W-79% )

Region 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.40)
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 100%
Athens (The Plains) 100%
Chillicothe 99% (8W-98% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Granville 82% (6W-1% 7W-49% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
New Philadelphia 79% (7W-4% 8W-46% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Dover 69% (6W-5% 7W-41% 8W-99% )
Brookhaven (Columbus) 64% (6W-4% 7W-77% 8W-99% )
Sheridan (Thornville) 58% (7W-5% 8W-81% 9W-99% )
Logan Elm (Circleville) 46% (6W-2% 7W-52% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 31% (6W-1% 7W-54% 8W-99% )
Mifflin (Columbus) 26% (6W-1% 7W-30% 8W-99% )
West Holmes (Millersburg) 24% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-41% 9W-100% )
Beechcroft (Columbus) 12% (6W-2% 7W-79% )
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 5% (5W-5% 6W-77% )
Carrollton 2% (6W-1% 7W-62% )

Region 10 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 17.25)
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 99% (5W-90% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Western Brown (Mount Orab) 99% (8W-95% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Wapakoneta 99% (7W-94% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Shawnee (Springfield) 96% (7W-33% 8W-94% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 95% (7W-8% 8W-84% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Franklin 82% (6W-8% 7W-80% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 82% (5W-2% 6W-33% 7W-99% )
Celina 59% (6W-1% 7W-17% 8W-83% 9W-100% )
Kenton Ridge (Springfield) 42% (6W-1% 7W-25% 8W-92% 9W-100% )
Bellefontaine 21% (5W-4% 6W-63% 7W-100% )
New Richmond 19% (8W-2% 9W-27% )
Ross (Hamilton) 3% (6W-1% 7W-15% )

Region 11 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 16.15)
Chagrin Falls 98% (5W-30% 6W-97% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Woodridge (Peninsula) 96% (6W-33% 7W-82% 8W-100% )
Minerva 93% (5W-19% 6W-78% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
John Hay (Cleveland) 91% (7W-51% 8W-92% 9W-100% )
Struthers 80% (5W-1% 6W-41% 7W-95% 8W-100% )
Fairview (Fairview Park) 78% (7W-4% 8W-45% 9W-98% )
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 67% (4W-1% 5W-17% 6W-77% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Perry 60% (5W-6% 6W-90% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Benedictine (Cleveland) 39% (5W-1% 6W-44% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 35% (4W-1% 5W-23% 6W-92% 7W-100% )
Lakeview (Cortland) 22% (6W-4% 7W-53% )
Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) 20% (5W-2% 6W-69% 7W-100% )
Streetsboro 8% (6W-1% 7W-19% 8W-100% )
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 5% (7W-1% 8W-12% )
Orange (Pepper Pike) 3% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-100% )
Northwest (Canal Fulton) 2% (5W-1% 6W-41% )

Region 12 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 17.90)
Kenton 100%
River Valley (Caledonia) 100%
Genoa Area (Genoa) 99% (8W-50% 9W-98% 10W-100% )
Bryan 98% (8W-56% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Galion 89% (8W-21% 9W-80% 10W-100% )
Wauseon 77% (7W-8% 8W-71% 9W-100% )
Upper Sandusky 68% (8W-13% 9W-83% 10W-100% )
Lake (Millbury) 60% (7W-8% 8W-68% 9W-100% )
Triway (Wooster) 53% (5W-1% 6W-36% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Highland (Sparta) 41% (7W-1% 8W-12% 9W-95% )
Bellevue 8% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-36% )
Clear Fork (Bellville) 3% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-97% )

Region 13 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.40)
Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 99% (6W-95% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Philo (Duncan Falls) 99% (6W-77% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Licking Valley (Newark) 94% (5W-50% 6W-58% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Maysville (Zanesville) 92% (6W-33% 7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Bexley (Columbus) 86% (5W-12% 6W-47% 7W-83% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Steubenville 77% (5W-2% 6W-42% 7W-83% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Bloom-Carroll (Carroll) 68% (4W-1% 5W-25% 6W-86% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 66% (4W-92% 5W-100% )
Claymont (Uhrichsville) 34% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-92% )
John Glenn (New Concord) 27% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-81% 8W-100% )
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 24% (5W-1% 6W-13% 7W-71% 8W-100% )
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 14% (4W-2% 5W-49% 6W-99% )
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 6% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-98% )
Edison (Richmond) 6% (5W-1% 6W-27% 7W-95% )
Meadowbrook (Byesville) 5% (7W-1% 8W-1% 9W-45% )

Region 14 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.45)
Urbana 98% (8W-26% 9W-83% 10W-99% )
Valley View (Germantown) 97% (7W-39% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 96% (6W-40% 7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Miami Trace (Washington Court House) 90% (6W-17% 7W-88% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 89% (6W-6% 7W-76% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 78% (6W-1% 7W-22% 8W-90% )
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 75% (6W-1% 7W-31% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Gallia Academy (Gallipolis) 41% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-78% )
Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) 32% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-51% 8W-99% )
Eaton 24% (7W-2% 8W-45% 9W-100% )
Carlisle 24% (6W-1% 7W-7% 8W-99% )
Circleville 22% (6W-4% 7W-64% 8W-100% )
Minford 20% (7W-1% 8W-44% 9W-100% )
Taylor (North Bend) 8% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-88% )
Oakwood (Dayton) 2% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-52% )
Meigs (Pomeroy) 2% (7W-1% 8W-71% )

Region 15 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 12.90)
Manchester (Akron) 100%
Fairless (Navarre) 97% (5W-19% 6W-76% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Black River (Sullivan) 93% (5W-16% 6W-64% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Beachwood 91% (4W-25% 5W-87% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Crestview (Columbiana) 85% (6W-1% 7W-28% 8W-89% 9W-100% )
Liberty (Youngstown) 78% (5W-7% 6W-59% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Gilmour Academy (Gates Mills) 61% (6W-4% 7W-43% 8W-91% 9W-99% )
Ursuline (Youngstown) 59% (4W-98% 5W-100% 6W-100% )
Girard 35% (5W-1% 6W-22% 7W-94% )
Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 30% (5W-3% 6W-49% 7W-99% )
Sandy Valley (Magnolia) 24% (5W-1% 6W-33% 7W-99% )
Harrison Central (Cadiz) 20% (4W-1% 5W-13% 6W-92% )
Independence 9% (6W-1% 7W-27% 8W-100% )
Champion (Warren) 7% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-88% )
Labrae (Leavittsburg) 4% (5W-1% 6W-33% 7W-100% )
Lutheran West (Rocky River) 2% (5W-1% 6W-37% 7W-100% )

Region 16 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 16.10)
Columbia (Columbia Station) 99% (8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Coldwater 99% (7W-96% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Eastwood (Pemberville) 99% (6W-17% 7W-94% 8W-100% )
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 92% (7W-15% 8W-45% 9W-92% 10W-100% )
Northwestern (West Salem) 90% (6W-2% 7W-37% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Huron 82% (6W-26% 7W-88% 8W-100% )
Loudonville 71% (7W-1% 8W-16% 9W-83% 10W-100% )
Orrville 51% (5W-4% 6W-38% 7W-89% 8W-100% )
Norwayne (Creston) 26% (6W-1% 7W-18% 8W-93% )
Pleasant (Marion) 20% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-93% )
Chippewa (Doylestown) 19% (6W-1% 7W-15% 8W-76% )
Archbold 17% (7W-2% 8W-50% 9W-99% )
Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 14% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-84% )
Waynedale (Apple Creek) 10% (6W-1% 7W-7% 8W-85% )
Liberty Center 8% (6W-1% 7W-48% 8W-100% )

Region 17 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.45)
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 100%
St Clairsville 100%
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 100%
Wheelersburg 100%
Martins Ferry 99% (6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Fairland (Proctorville) 99% (5W-98% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Southeastern (Chillicothe) 47% (4W-2% 5W-17% 6W-69% 7W-96% )
Ironton 43% (4W-96% 5W-100% )
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 35% (4W-2% 5W-36% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Zane Trace (Chillicothe) 27% (4W-1% 5W-12% 6W-83% )
Portsmouth 17% (4W-38% 5W-99% 6W-100% )
Westfall (Williamsport) 9% (4W-1% 5W-32% 6W-99% )
Union Local (Belmont) 8% (4W-1% 5W-67% 6W-99% )
Piketon 6% (4W-1% 5W-43% 6W-99% )
Wellston 4% (4W-1% 5W-28% 6W-91% )
South Point 3% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-38% )

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.80)
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 100%
West Jefferson 99% (6W-88% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
North Union (Richwood) 99% (7W-78% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Madeira (Cincinnati) 97% (7W-53% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 96% (4W-33% 5W-82% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Badin (Hamilton) 93% (5W-4% 6W-71% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Waynesville 62% (6W-5% 7W-53% 8W-97% )
Mariemont (Cincinnati) 48% (5W-5% 6W-64% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Reading 35% (5W-3% 6W-51% 7W-98% )
Brookville 23% (5W-1% 6W-21% 7W-96% 8W-100% )
Roger Bacon (St Bernard) 19% (4W-1% 5W-44% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Purcell Marian (Cincinnati) 9% (4W-1% 5W-10% 6W-75% 7W-100% )
Madison (Middletown) 8% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-94% )
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 8% (5W-1% 6W-46% 7W-100% )

Region 19 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.80)
Kirtland 100%
South Range (North Lima) 99% (8W-93% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Mogadore 99% (7W-88% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 98% (6W-43% 7W-91% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 91% (5W-2% 6W-44% 7W-95% 8W-100% )
Brookfield 87% (5W-1% 6W-38% 7W-86% 8W-99% )
Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) 80% (7W-18% 8W-68% 9W-95% 10W-100% )
Springfield (New Middletown) 71% (6W-12% 7W-39% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Mc Donald 67% (5W-1% 6W-19% 7W-75% 8W-99% )
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 4% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-85% )
Newcomerstown 3% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-78% )

Region 20 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.40)
Jefferson (Delphos) 100%
Wayne Trace (Haviland) 99% (8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Tinora (Defiance) 92% (7W-47% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 84% (6W-13% 7W-88% 8W-100% )
Ada 79% (6W-11% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) 70% (7W-9% 8W-87% 9W-100% )
Crestview (Convoy) 70% (6W-12% 7W-87% 8W-100% )
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 68% (6W-68% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Northwood 49% (7W-7% 8W-58% )
Ayersville (Defiance) 33% (7W-1% 8W-43% 9W-100% )
Carey 20% (6W-2% 7W-73% )
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 9% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-73% 8W-100% )
Seneca East (Attica) 8% (7W-1% 8W-32% )
Spencerville 7% (6W-1% 7W-42% 8W-100% )
Bluffton 7% (6W-1% 7W-64% )
Wynford (Bucyrus) 3% (6W-1% 7W-96% )

Region 21 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 12.34)
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 100%
Valley (Lucasville) 100%
Centerburg 99% (7W-89% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Newark Catholic (Newark) 98% (6W-66% 7W-94% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 93% (4W-8% 5W-34% 6W-79% 7W-99% )
Bellaire 91% (4W-27% 5W-81% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 70% (5W-2% 6W-29% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Oak Hill 65% (6W-1% 7W-31% 8W-88% 9W-100% )
Fort Frye (Beverly) 54% (7W-10% 8W-37% 9W-88% )
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 12% (5W-1% 6W-49% )
Crooksville 7% (5W-1% 6W-34% 7W-100% )
Fredericktown 5% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-96% )
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 3% (5W-1% 6W-13% 7W-73% )

Region 22 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.95)
Miami East (Casstown) 99% (7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-96% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 99% (6W-83% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Williamsburg 99% (5W-92% 6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) 98% (6W-48% 7W-89% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 98% (6W-53% 7W-77% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
National Trail (New Paris) 94% (5W-24% 6W-68% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Mechanicsburg 76% (5W-3% 6W-38% 7W-96% 8W-100% )
Versailles 9% (5W-1% 6W-25% )
Fayetteville 8% (5W-5% 6W-71% )
Minster 7% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-58% )
Twin Valley South (West Alexandria) 5% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-97% )
Anna 2% (4W-1% 5W-61% )

Region 23 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 9.42)
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 100%
Lowellville 99% (5W-100% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
St Paul (Norwalk) 99% (6W-96% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Danville 99% (6W-93% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Mapleton (Ashland) 99% (5W-61% 6W-91% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Wellsville 94% (5W-37% 6W-84% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Trinity (Garfield Heights) 51% (4W-17% 5W-65% 6W-96% 7W-100% )
Mineral Ridge 46% (5W-1% 6W-38% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Plymouth 32% (6W-6% 7W-63% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Leetonia 22% (4W-6% 5W-73% 6W-100% )
Mathews (Vienna) 17% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-45% 8W-89% )
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 16% (4W-93% 5W-100% )
Chalker (Southington) 12% (5W-2% 6W-23% 7W-81% )
John F Kennedy (Warren) 6% (4W-41% 5W-98% )
East Canton 2% (4W-1% 5W-10% 6W-75% )

Region 24 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 8.15)
Arlington 100%
Mc Comb 99% (6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 99% (4W-86% 5W-98% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Leipsic 90% (5W-35% 6W-77% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Edon 86% (5W-1% 6W-23% 7W-90% 8W-100% )
Calvert (Tiffin) 80% (4W-61% 5W-99% 6W-100% )
Hicksville 72% (4W-10% 5W-51% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Pandora-Gilboa (Pandora) 68% (5W-2% 6W-18% 7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Mohawk (Sycamore) 39% (4W-53% 5W-99% 6W-100% )
Delphos St John’s 34% (4W-1% 5W-26% 6W-94% )
Toledo Christian (Toledo) 29% (5W-3% 6W-50% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Perry (Lima) 2% (4W-6% 5W-96% )

Region 25 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 9.55)
Trimble (Glouster) 100%
Southern (Racine) 100%
Shadyside 100%
Catholic Central (Steubenville) 99% (6W-100% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Malvern 99% (6W-96% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Caldwell 71% (5W-7% 6W-43% 7W-87% 8W-100% )
South Gallia (Crown City) 64% (5W-8% 6W-52% 7W-94% 8W-100% )
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 44% (5W-3% 6W-23% 7W-92% 8W-100% )
Beallsville 40% (4W-1% 5W-6% 6W-53% 7W-93% )
Tuscarawas Central Catholic (New Philadelphia) 39% (4W-1% 5W-12% 6W-61% 7W-96% )
Frontier (New Matamoras) 18% (4W-1% 5W-31% 6W-96% 7W-100% )
Toronto 14% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-70% )
Fairfield Christian Academy (Lancaster) 3% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-32% )
Grove City Christian (Grove City) 3% (5W-1% 6W-20% )

Region 26 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 11.08)
Paint Valley (Bainbridge) 100%
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 100%
Triad (North Lewisburg) 100%
Covington 100%
Fort Loramie 99% (6W-83% 7W-99% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 99% (6W-71% 7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Notre Dame (Portsmouth) 96% (6W-42% 7W-81% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Cedarville 72% (5W-17% 6W-23% 7W-74% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Riverview East Academy (Cincinnati) 21% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-36% 8W-69% )
Miami Valley Christian Academy (Cincinnati) 9% (5W-2% 6W-10% 7W-54% )

 

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