The Fantastic 50: Week 4 Rankings

Based on Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 formula, what team – regardless of division – sits at No. 1 in Ohio? St. Ignatius? Colerain? St. Ed? St. X? Click here to see who the computers like.

We know how much Ohio high school football fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at. Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster, we’re proud to offer Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 again this fall. In addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the Fantastic 50?
The Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams, regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules, so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a 21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams, provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system, an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games. Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew Pasteur?
Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where he was a high school teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has published a North Carolina version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects postseason participants.

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This Week’s Game Predictions

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This Week’s Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
1) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (2-1, D1 R1) 159.2
2) St Edward (Lakewood) (3-0, D1 R1) 157.6
3) Colerain (Cincinnati) (3-0, D1 R2) 157.1
4) Centerville (3-0, D1 R2) 151.4
5) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (3-0, D1 R2) 151.0
6) Whitmer (Toledo) (1-2, D1 R1) 150.5
7) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (3-0, D1 R2) 149.0
8) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (3-0, D1 R2) 147.5
9) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (3-0, D1 R1) 146.3
10) Elder (Cincinnati) (3-0, D1 R2) 145.9
11) New Albany (3-0, D2 R5) 145.5
12) Central Catholic (Toledo) (3-0, D3 R8) 145.1
13) Kenton (3-0, D4 R12) 144.6
14) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (3-0, D2 R4) 144.2
15) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (1-1, D1 R2) 143.9
16) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (2-1, D1 R2) 142.7
17) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (3-0, D2 R6) 142.5
18) South (Willoughby) (3-0, D2 R3) 141.7
19) Mentor (2-1, D1 R1) 141.4
20) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (2-1, D2 R3) 141.2
21) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (3-0, D1 R1) 140.7
22) Avon (3-0, D2 R4) 140.4
23) Hudson (3-0, D1 R1) 140.1
24) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (3-0, D3 R7) 139.5
25) La Salle (Cincinnati) (3-0, D2 R6) 139.3
26) Loveland (3-0, D2 R6) 139.2
27) Nordonia (Macedonia) (3-0, D2 R4) 138.2
28) Springboro (2-1, D1 R2) 138.0
29) Wayne (Huber Heights) (2-1, D1 R2) 137.7
30) Sycamore (Cincinnati) (3-0, D1 R2) 137.6
31) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (2-1, D3 R10) 137.6
32) Coldwater (2-1, D5 R16) 137.5
33) Northmont (Clayton) (2-1, D1 R2) 137.0
34) Lakota West (West Chester) (2-1, D1 R2) 136.7
35) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (2-1, D4 R11) 136.2
36) Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) (2-1, D1 R2) 134.8
37) Westerville Central (Westerville) (2-1, D1 R1) 133.8
38) Highland (Medina) (3-0, D2 R4) 133.8
39) Glenoak (Canton) (2-1, D1 R1) 133.6
40) Solon (1-2, D1 R1) 133.4
41) Poland Seminary (Poland) (3-0, D3 R7) 133.3
42) Aurora (3-0, D3 R7) 132.8
43) Dublin Scioto (Dublin) (2-1, D2 R5) 132.5
44) Clyde (3-0, D3 R8) 132.4
45) Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) (3-0, D5 R18) 132.1
46) Fairfield (3-0, D1 R2) 131.9
47) Stow-Munroe Falls (Stow) (3-0, D1 R1) 131.8
48) Lake (Uniontown) (2-1, D2 R4) 131.7
49) Cleveland Heights (2-1, D1 R1) 131.1
50) Dover (3-0, D3 R9) 131.1

OHSAA Division I Rankings
1) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (2-1) 159.2
2) St Edward (Lakewood) (3-0) 157.6
3) Colerain (Cincinnati) (3-0) 157.1
4) Centerville (3-0) 151.4
5) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (3-0) 151.0
6) Whitmer (Toledo) (1-2) 150.5
7) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (3-0) 149.0
8) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (3-0) 147.5
9) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (3-0) 146.3
10) Elder (Cincinnati) (3-0) 145.9
11) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (1-1) 143.9
12) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (2-1) 142.7
13) Mentor (2-1) 141.4
14) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (3-0) 140.7
15) Hudson (3-0) 140.1

OHSAA Division II Rankings
1) New Albany (3-0) 145.5
2) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (3-0) 144.2
3) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (3-0) 142.5
4) South (Willoughby) (3-0) 141.7
5) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (2-1) 141.2
6) Avon (3-0) 140.4
7) La Salle (Cincinnati) (3-0) 139.3
8) Loveland (3-0) 139.2
9) Nordonia (Macedonia) (3-0) 138.2
10) Highland (Medina) (3-0) 133.8
11) Dublin Scioto (Dublin) (2-1) 132.5
12) Lake (Uniontown) (2-1) 131.7
13) Olentangy (Lewis Center) (3-0) 130.3
14) Ellet (Akron) (3-0) 130.2
15) Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights) (2-1) 129.8

OHSAA Division III Rankings
1) Central Catholic (Toledo) (3-0) 145.1
2) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (3-0) 139.5
3) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (2-1) 137.6
4) Poland Seminary (Poland) (3-0) 133.3
5) Aurora (3-0) 132.8
6) Clyde (3-0) 132.4
7) Dover (3-0) 131.1
8) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (2-1) 128.3
9) Perkins (Sandusky) (3-0) 128.1
10) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (1-1) 128.1
11) Columbian (Tiffin) (2-1) 127.5
12) Athens (The Plains) (3-0) 127.1
13) Wapakoneta (2-1) 125.8
14) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (1-2) 125.0
15) Tallmadge (2-1) 124.0

OHSAA Division IV Rankings
1) Kenton (3-0) 144.6
2) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (2-1) 136.2
3) Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) (2-1) 130.5
4) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (3-0) 129.7
5) Bryan (3-0) 127.3
6) Chagrin Falls (2-1) 126.6
7) Steubenville (3-0) 123.9
8) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (2-1) 123.0
9) Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) (3-0) 122.9
10) Genoa Area (Genoa) (3-0) 122.7
11) Miami Trace (Washington Court House) (3-0) 122.0
12) Valley View (Germantown) (3-0) 119.9
13) River Valley (Caledonia) (3-0) 119.9
14) Maysville (Zanesville) (3-0) 119.4
15) Urbana (3-0) 117.7

OHSAA Division V Rankings
1) Coldwater (2-1) 137.5
2) Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) (3-0) 132.1
3) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (2-1) 131.0
4) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (3-0) 125.1
5) Ursuline (Youngstown) (2-1) 123.0
6) Wheelersburg (3-0) 121.5
7) Eastwood (Pemberville) (2-1) 121.1
8) Crestview (Columbiana) (3-0) 120.3
9) St Clairsville (3-0) 119.5
10) Orrville (3-0) 118.5
11) Manchester (Akron) (3-0) 118.3
12) Loudonville (3-0) 117.8
13) Liberty Center (3-0) 117.4
14) Badin (Hamilton) (3-0) 117.0
15) Waynesville (2-1) 116.9

OHSAA Division VI Rankings
1) Kirtland (3-0) 123.6
2) Bishop Ready (Columbus) (3-0) 120.8
3) Ada (3-0) 118.4
4) Wayne Trace (Haviland) (3-0) 117.5
5) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (2-1) 116.6
6) Mogadore (3-0) 116.2
7) Valley (Lucasville) (3-0) 114.8
8) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (2-1) 113.9
9) St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) (2-1) 113.4
10) Jefferson (Delphos) (3-0) 112.7
11) Anna (2-1) 111.1
12) Tinora (Defiance) (2-1) 110.5
13) South Range (North Lima) (3-0) 110.2
14) Brookfield (3-0) 110.0
15) West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) (3-0) 109.8

OHSAA Division VII Rankings
1) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (3-0) 130.9
2) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (3-0) 118.6
3) Triad (North Lewisburg) (3-0) 114.3
4) Covington (3-0) 113.9
5) Leipsic (3-0) 111.9
6) Mc Comb (2-1) 110.0
7) Shadyside (3-0) 108.9
8) Danville (2-1) 108.1
9) Arlington (3-0) 107.8
10) Trimble (Glouster) (3-0) 107.0
11) Delphos St John’s (1-2) 106.7
12) Malvern (2-1) 106.4
13) Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (2-1) 103.8
14) Catholic Central (Steubenville) (3-0) 101.2
15) St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) (2-1) 99.5

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