The Fantastic 50: Week 3 Rankings

Based on Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 formula, what team – regardless of division – sits at No. 1 in Ohio? St. Ignatius? Colerain? St. Ed? St. X? Click here to see who the computers like.

We know how much Ohio high school football fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at. Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster, we’re proud to offer Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 again this fall. In addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the Fantastic 50?
The Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams, regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules, so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a 21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams, provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system, an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games. Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew Pasteur?
Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where he was a high school teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has published a North Carolina version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects postseason participants.

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This Week’s Game Predictions

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This Week’s Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
1) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (1-1, D1 R1) 159.5
2) Colerain (Cincinnati) (2-0, D1 R2) 157.1
3) St Edward (Lakewood) (2-0, D1 R1) 155.2
4) Whitmer (Toledo) (1-1, D1 R1) 151.4
5) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (2-0, D1 R2) 151.0
6) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (2-0, D1 R2) 150.2
7) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-0, D1 R2) 147.5
8) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (2-0, D1 R2) 147.4
9) Centerville (2-0, D1 R2) 147.3
10) Wayne (Huber Heights) (2-0, D1 R2) 146.4
11) New Albany (2-0, D2 R5) 143.6
12) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (1-1, D1 R2) 142.7
13) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (2-0, D1 R1) 142.6
14) Mentor (1-1, D1 R1) 142.0
15) Kenton (2-0, D4 R12) 141.7
16) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (2-0, D2 R4) 140.9
17) Central Catholic (Toledo) (2-0, D3 R8) 140.5
18) Hudson (2-0, D1 R1) 140.3
19) Cleveland Heights (2-0, D1 R1) 139.3
20) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (2-0, D3 R9) 138.8
21) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (2-0, D1 R1) 138.7
22) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (2-0, D2 R6) 138.4
23) Sycamore (Cincinnati) (2-0, D1 R2) 138.3
24) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (0-1, D1 R2) 137.8
25) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (2-0, D3 R7) 137.6
26) Nordonia (Macedonia) (2-0, D2 R4) 137.2
27) La Salle (Cincinnati) (2-0, D2 R6) 136.8
28) Dublin Scioto (Dublin) (2-0, D2 R5) 136.6
29) Loveland (2-0, D2 R6) 136.6
30) Avon (2-0, D2 R4) 136.2
31) South (Willoughby) (2-0, D2 R3) 136.1
32) Grove City (1-1, D1 R2) 136.0
33) Lakota East (Liberty Township) (2-0, D1 R2) 136.0
34) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (1-1, D4 R11) 135.3
35) Springboro (1-1, D1 R2) 135.1
36) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (1-1, D2 R3) 135.1
37) Fairfield (2-0, D1 R2) 134.1
38) Brunswick (2-0, D1 R1) 134.0
39) Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) (1-1, D1 R2) 133.8
40) Aurora (2-0, D3 R7) 133.8
41) Westerville Central (Westerville) (1-1, D1 R1) 133.5
42) Middletown (1-1, D1 R2) 133.4
43) Solon (1-1, D1 R1) 133.1
44) Olentangy (Lewis Center) (2-0, D2 R5) 132.8
45) Coldwater (1-1, D5 R16) 132.7
46) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (1-1, D3 R10) 132.2
47) Glenoak (Canton) (1-1, D1 R1) 132.2
48) Lakota West (West Chester) (1-1, D1 R2) 131.5
49) Highland (Medina) (2-0, D2 R4) 131.4
50) Stow-Munroe Falls (Stow) (2-0, D1 R1) 131.1

 


OHSAA Division I Rankings
1) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (1-1) 159.5
2) Colerain (Cincinnati) (2-0) 157.1
3) St Edward (Lakewood) (2-0) 155.2
4) Whitmer (Toledo) (1-1) 151.4
5) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (2-0) 151.0
6) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (2-0) 150.2
7) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-0) 147.5
8) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (2-0) 147.4
9) Centerville (2-0) 147.3
10) Wayne (Huber Heights) (2-0) 146.4
11) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (1-1) 142.7
12) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (2-0) 142.6
13) Mentor (1-1) 142.0
14) Hudson (2-0) 140.3
15) Cleveland Heights (2-0) 139.3

OHSAA Division II Rankings
1) New Albany (2-0) 143.6
2) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (2-0) 140.9
3) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (2-0) 138.4
4) Nordonia (Macedonia) (2-0) 137.2
5) La Salle (Cincinnati) (2-0) 136.8
6) Dublin Scioto (Dublin) (2-0) 136.6
7) Loveland (2-0) 136.6
8) Avon (2-0) 136.2
9) South (Willoughby) (2-0) 136.1
10) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (1-1) 135.1
11) Olentangy (Lewis Center) (2-0) 132.8
12) Highland (Medina) (2-0) 131.4
13) Withrow (Cincinnati) (2-0) 130.0
14) Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights) (2-0) 128.5
15) Perrysburg (1-1) 127.7

OHSAA Division III Rankings
1) Central Catholic (Toledo) (2-0) 140.5
2) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (2-0) 138.8
3) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (2-0) 137.6
4) Aurora (2-0) 133.8
5) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (1-1) 132.2
6) Poland Seminary (Poland) (2-0) 130.8
7) Perkins (Sandusky) (2-0) 130.0
8) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (1-1) 129.9
9) Dover (2-0) 128.4
10) New Philadelphia (2-0) 127.7
11) Clyde (2-0) 126.7
12) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (1-1) 125.5
13) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (1-1) 125.1
14) Columbian (Tiffin) (1-1) 122.5
15) Athens (The Plains) (2-0) 122.0

OHSAA Division IV Rankings
1) Kenton (2-0) 141.7
2) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (1-1) 135.3
3) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (2-0) 128.7
4) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (2-0) 128.6
5) Bryan (2-0) 126.1
6) Steubenville (2-0) 126.0
7) Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) (1-1) 125.7
8) Genoa Area (Genoa) (2-0) 125.3
9) Galion (2-0) 121.6
10) Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) (2-0) 121.5
11) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (1-1) 120.2
12) Chagrin Falls (1-1) 119.3
13) Bellevue (1-1) 118.5
14) Valley View (Germantown) (2-0) 117.9
15) Wauseon (2-0) 117.7

OHSAA Division V Rankings
1) Coldwater (1-1) 132.7
2) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (2-0) 129.2
3) Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) (2-0) 128.3
4) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (2-0) 124.4
5) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (1-1) 121.3
6) Ursuline (Youngstown) (1-1) 120.7
7) Wheelersburg (2-0) 118.9
8) Crestview (Columbiana) (2-0) 118.6
9) Manchester (Akron) (2-0) 118.1
10) Eastwood (Pemberville) (1-1) 116.8
11) Waynesville (1-1) 116.6
12) Canton Central Catholic (Canton) (1-1) 115.6
13) Northwestern (West Salem) (2-0) 115.5
14) Badin (Hamilton) (2-0) 115.1
15) Liberty Center (2-0) 114.8

OHSAA Division VI Rankings
1) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (2-0) 126.4
2) Kirtland (2-0) 125.5
3) Bishop Ready (Columbus) (2-0) 121.8
4) Ada (2-0) 118.6
5) Mogadore (2-0) 118.2
6) St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) (2-0) 116.2
7) Valley (Lucasville) (2-0) 113.8
8) Hillsdale (Jeromesville) (1-1) 112.3
9) West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) (2-0) 112.1
10) South Range (North Lima) (2-0) 112.0
11) Brookfield (2-0) 111.2
12) Wayne Trace (Haviland) (2-0) 110.0
13) Newark Catholic (Newark) (1-1) 109.8
14) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (1-1) 109.4
15) Wynford (Bucyrus) (1-1) 109.3

OHSAA Division VII Rankings
1) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (2-0) 128.9
2) Covington (2-0) 117.6
3) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (2-0) 116.3
4) Leipsic (2-0) 113.6
5) Mc Comb (1-1) 113.1
6) Danville (2-0) 111.2
7) Triad (North Lewisburg) (2-0) 108.0
8) John F Kennedy (Warren) (1-1) 107.2
9) Trimble (Glouster) (2-0) 107.2
10) Shadyside (2-0) 106.4
11) Delphos St John’s (0-2) 106.1
12) Malvern (1-1) 105.2
13) St Paul (Norwalk) (2-0) 103.9
14) Fort Loramie (2-0) 103.8
15) Arlington (2-0) 102.1

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