Who We Say Wins in Week 14: Picking the State Semifinal Winners

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Here’s who we say wins…

For the third year in a row we’re changing our focus from flesh to formulas.
After going against pickers from the Dayton Daily and ThisWeek during
the regular season we’re back to challenge the Fantastic 50 formula in
the postseason. How’d we do in Week 13? And do we like your team’s chances in Week 14?


For the third year in a row we’re changing our focus from flesh to formulas.
After going against pickers and staff from the Dayton Daily and ThisWeek News during
the regular season we’re back to challenge Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 in
the postseason.

After tieing the first two weeks, the Fan50 finally got the best of me. DP’s formula went 19-5 in regional finals, while I went 16-8.

Click here to see who the Fantastic 50 says will win in Week 14.

Here’s my human vote…

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State Semifinals

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D-I: Mentor (12-1) vs Toledo Whitmer (13-0)

Location: Mansfield Arlin Field

Outlook: There
may not be a hotter team in Ohio right now than Mentor. The Cardinals
are averaging 55 points in playoff wins over Warren Harding, St. Edward
and St. Ignatius. The catalyst is Mr. Football candidate Mitch Trubisky.
The senior QB and North Carolina commit has thrown for 1,245 yards and
13 TDs and run for 324 yards and five TDs in three playoff games. He’s
thrown for 41 TDs this season. During the summer, Mentor head coach
Steve Trivisonno told us this could be the best offensive unit the
Cardinals have ever had. Right now they’re backing that up. If you can
call a team that’s won three straight regional titles a surprise,
Whitmer is it. The Panthers lost several D-I recruits, their head coach
and a record-setting QB (transfer) from last year’s team. All they’ve
done is go undefeated. Whitmer is one of two Three Rivers Athletic
Conference teams in Final Fours (Toledo Central Catholic is in D-II).
The Panthers have lost the last two regional finals to the eventual
state champion (St. Ignatius and St. Edward).

Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50 Pick: Whitmer
Cal Preps Pick:
Whitmer
Eric Frantz Pick:
Mentor

D-I: Pickerington North (12-1) vs Moeller (10-3)

Location: Dayton Welcome Stadium

Outlook:
Moeller was ranked No. 1 in the preseason National Guard JJHuddle
Division I Power Poll but lost games to St. Edward, St. Xavier and Elder
during a five-game stretch that left them 6-3. Since then the Crusaders
have won four straight, including victories over nationally ranked
Louisville Trinity and Colerain (in last week’s regional final). Despite
owning 14 regional titles, Moeller is in the state semifinals for the
first time since 1997. Pickerington North is in the state semifinals for
the first time ever. In fact, the Panthers hadn’t won a playoff game
until three weeks ago. Pick North was the No. 1 team in Central Ohio for
nine of the 10 weeks of the JJHuddle NBC4 Power Poll. The game will
feature five Big Ten recruits, including a pair on Northwestern running
backs in Pick North’s Godwin Igwebuike and Moeller’s Keith Watkins. Both
these teams are clicking at the right time.

Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50: Pickerington North
Cal Preps Pick: Moeller
Eric Frantz Pick: Moeller

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D-II: Toledo Central Catholic (12-1) vs Aurora (12-1)

Location: Huron HS

Outlook: TCC
spent a good chunk of the season at No. 1 in the National Guard
JJHuddle Power Poll before a Week 10 loss to D-I state semifinalist
Whitmer dropped them. Each week that blemish looks less important. The
Irish have one of the state’s top offenses feuled by junior QB DSeShone
Kizer (a top 2014 recruit nationally) and senior RB Amir Edwards. Aurora
is in the state semifinals for the fourth time in seven years. Greenmen
junior QB George Bollas is no slouch. Last week he ran for 250 yards
and four TDs in Aurora’s win over Chardon. Bollas is a state wrestling
qualifier. The Greenmen won the D-III state title in 2008 and despite
bumping up to D-II last season have made the Final Four both years.
During the season/playoffs Aurora has seen some dynamic offenses
(Chagrin Falls, New Philadelphia, Kent Roosevelt), but TCC will be the
best they’ve seen.

Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50: TCC
Cal Preps Pick: TCC
Eric Frantz Pick: TCC

D-II: New Albany (11-2) vs Trotwood-Madison (11-2)

Location: Piqua Alexander Stadium

Outlook: Of
all the team’s left in the state tournament, none has more D-I commits
on its roster than Trotwood. Take that for what it’s worth. The Rams
opened the season with high expectations but fell to 1-2 after three
weeks and had to win in Week 10 just to make the playoffs. That being
said, Trotwood is one win away from it’s third straight D-II state
final. The defending state champions are riding the running game of
senior Isreal Green (1,512 yards/21 TDs) and junior Ashton Jackson (996
yards/19 TDs). Green needs 488 yards to reach 2,000 for the third
straight season. Freshman QB Messiah DeWeaver has delivered (10 TDs/2
INTs) in six starts. New Albany counters with the most dynamic player on
the field – senior Darron Lee. A QB/DB who is headed to Ohio State, Lee
returned a punt for a TD, threw two TDs passes, ran for a TD and had an
interception in the closing minute of last week’s 32-30 win over
Marion-Franklin. New Albany’s defense produced 10 sacks against
Marion-Franklin. Getting similar pressure on DeWeaver is key. The Eagles
are in the Final four for the second time and first since 2006 (made it
in D-III).  NA senior RB Alan Watson is a hammer.

Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50: Trotwood
Cal Preps Pick: Trotwood
Eric Frantz Pick: Trotwood

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D-III: Akron SVSM (11-2) vs Dover (11-2)

Location: Massillon Paul Brown Tiger Stadium 

Outlook:
After starting out 2-2 with losses to Ashland and Tri-Valley in weeks 2
and 4, Dover has won nine straight. The Tornadoes got a huge monkey off
their back last week when they finally won their first regional title
with a 48-21 win over West Holmes. Dover had been 0-5 in regional finals
the last six years. QB Mason Mamarella accounted for six TDs (three
running, three passing) and the Tornadoes forced six turnovers in their
win over West Holmes. Akron SVSM is in the state semifinals for the
ninth time but first since 2001. The Irish’s lone losses this year were
to Massillon Washington and Mooney. In SVSM’s 54-14 regional semifinal
win over Hubbard, senior WR Jordan Hargrove broke LeBron James’ school
single-season record for receptions (57).

Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50: Akron SVSM
Cal Preps Pick: Akron SVSM
Eric Frantz Pick: Akron SVSM

D-III: Thurgood Marshall (12-1) vs Bellevue (12-1)

Location: Ohio Wesleyan University

Outlook: Marshall
became the first Dayton City League school to win a regional football
title with its 60-20 win over Athens in the Region 12 final. Main
question…can Bellevue stop Marshall’s ground game? In three playoff
games the Cougars have scored 60, 68 and 67 points. Against Athens,
Marshall had 654 yards rushing. Senior RB Denzel Norvell led the way
with 302 yards and five TDs on 27 carries. Bellevue – led by senior QB
Jalen Santoro – can score plenty of points of its own (avg. 38 per
game). The Redmen are making their third Final Four appearance and first
since 2001. Bellevue is 0-2 in its previous two state semis.

Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50: Thurgood Marshall
Cal Preps Pick: Thurgood Marshall
Eric Frantz Pick: Thurgood Marshall

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D-IV: Norwayne (13-0) vs St. Clairsville (13-0)

Location: Massillon Paul Brown Tiger Stadium

Outlook: This
might be the hardest game to pick of the 12 state semis. There’s a lot
to like about both teams, especially the offenses, which have each
produced Top 10 all-time scoring seasons. Norwayne has 680 points this
season, which ranks sixth all-time for a single-season. St. Clairsville
has scored 637 points, which is tied for 10th all-time. Senior RB Jon
Zimmerly, senior wide receiver Brady Berger and junior QB Joe Dreher
lead the Norwayne machine. Zimmerly has rushed for 2,076 yards, Berger
has 1,333 yards receiving and Dreher has thrown for a Wayne County
record 3,608 yards. Norwayne’s defense is pretty good too. The Bobcats
capped the first 10-0 season in school history by forcing seven
turnovers in a Week 10 win over West Salem Northwestern. Speaking of
history, St. Clairsville is in the Final Four for the first since 1986
and won its first OVAC title since 1990. The Red Devils have their own
outstanding offense led by senior quarterback Matt Kinnick, senior wide
receiver Dan Monteroso (Boston College) and junior RB Jaylon Brown.
Junior LB Michael Ferns has already committed to Michigan.

Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50: Norwayne
Cal Preps Pick: Norwayne
Eric Frantz Pick: Norwayne

D-IV: Clinton-Massie (13-0) vs Hartley (13-0)

Location: Northmont HS

Outlook:
Did we mention scoring? Clinton-Massie beat Milton-Union 35-7 in the
Region 16 final and has 731 points this season. That ties the state
record set by Marion Pleasant in 2001. The only difference? Pleasant
scored 731 in 15 games. Junior RB Bayle Wolfe is the Falcons main
threat. Sophomore K Callum Jones has already set a state record for PATs
(94) in a season. Hartley has been the No. 1 ranked D-IV team in the
National Guard JJHuddle Power Poll all year. The Hawks are led by senior
RBs Ju’Wuan Woodley (Toledo) and Marcellus Calhoun. Junior WR Alonzo
Saxton has D-I offers (Illinois, Purdue, Toledo, Wisconsin,
Northwestern, Cincinnati, Indiana) and senior TE Jacob Matuska is headed
to Notre Dame. Junior QB Jared Brandewie is a good one. Both Massie and
Hartley were knocked out of the playoffs by Kenton last year. The Hawks
were state champions in 2010.

Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50: Hartley
Cal Preps Pick: Hartley
Eric Frantz Pick: Hartley

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D-V: Kirtland (13-0) vs Liberty Union (11-2)

Location: Canton Fawcett Stadium

Outlook:
Trailing Youngstown Ursuline 24-0 at halftime and with just 23 yards of
offense, Kirtland’s 27-game win streak looked to be in jeopardy. That’s
when the Hornets flipped the switch. The defending state champions
outscored the Irish 38-13 in the second half (converted four 2-point
conversions) and won the Region 17 title 38-37. Kirtland has now won 40
of its last 41 games overall. Senior RB Damon Washington leads the
attack. Liberty Union is the biggest surprise in any division. The Lions
were 3-2 at one point this season but have won eight straight. Last
week’s win over Lucasville Valley was a little surprising considering a
couple LU starters missed the game with injuries, including Central
District Defensive Player of the Year Luke Hannan (senior DL).

Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50: Kirtland
Cal Preps Pick: Kirtland
Eric Frantz Pick: Kirtland

 

D-V: Coldwater (13-0) vs Liberty-Benton (12-1)

Location: Lima Senior HS

Outlook: Coldwater
has been the No. 1 team in the National Guard JJHuddle Power Poll all
season and has a senior class that’s getting ready to play in its 59th
high school football game. The Cavs have played in the last three D-V
state finals and are one win away from making it four straight. Senior
QB Austin Bruns has been spectacular this season, having thrown for
2,682 yards, 31 TDs and just three interceptions. He’s also rushed for
12 TDs and 565 yards. The Cavaliers own the state’s longest streak of
consecutive playoff berths at 16 and have allowed just 83 points in 13
games. Liberty-Benton is an OT loss to D-VI state semifinalist McComb
away from being undefeated. The Eagles, however, trailed Patrick Henry
21-8 in the fourth quarter last week before using two key interceptions –
one returned 100 yards for a TD and the other returned to the PH
1-yardline – to turn the tide. L-B QB Mitch Linhart is a good one.

Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50: Coldwater
Cal Preps Pick: Coldwater
Eric Frantz Pick: Coldwater

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D-VI: Mogadore (13-0) vs Newark Catholic (11-2)

Location: New Philadelphia HS

Outlook: This
is a meeting between two traditional titans. Mogadore has been to the
playoffs 26 times, has 49 playoff wins, 16 regional titles and three
state championships. Newark Catholic is in the playoffs for the 32nd
time and has 66 postseason wins, 21 regional titles and eight state
titles. This game is tough to call. Both teams have marquee
game-changers and horses in senior RB Gary Strain (Mogadore) and senior
RB/DB Kevin Bourne (Newark Catholic). Classic match-up in more ways than
one.

Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50: Mogadore
Cal Preps Pick:
Mogadore
Eric Frantz Pick: Mogadore

 

D-VI: McComb (13-0) vs Marion Local (11-2)

Location: Wapakoneta HS

Outlook: Marion
Local’s playoff success is absurd. The Flyers have been to the playoffs
15 times and have won 11 regional titles. Their overall postseason
record is 46-9. ML is the defending state champion and has employed a
new spread offense this season built around junior QB Adam Bertke, a D-I
prospect. Sophomore RB Jacey Goettemoller has been huge. McComb
actually has more postseason berths (16) than Marion Local. Senior RB
Jerry Brown is the most electric player in Ohio in D-VI. It’ll take a
huge effort from him to combat the Flyers.

Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50: McComb
Cal Preps Pick: McComb
Eric Frantz Pick: Marion Local

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State Finals

EF Picks 2012: TBD
EF Picks 2011: 3-3 (50%)
EF Picks 2010: 4-2 (67%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: TBD
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 5-1 (83%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010:

2012 EF STATE SEMIFINAL PICKS

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State Semifinals

EF Picks 2012: TBD
EF Picks 2011: 9-3 (75%)
EF Picks 2010: 8-4 (67%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: TBD
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 6-6 (50%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 7-5 (58%)

2012 EF STATE SEMIFINAL PICKS

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Regional Finals

EF Picks 2012: 16-8 (67%)
EF Picks 2011: 20-4 (83%)
EF Picks 2010: 17-7 (71%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 19-5 (79%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 18-6 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 16-8 (67%)

2012 EF REGIONAL FINAL PICKS

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Regional Semifinals

EF Picks 2012: 39-9 (81%)
EF Picks 2011: 31-17 (65%)
EF Picks 2010: 35-13 (73%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 39-9 (81%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 35-13 (73%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 37-11 (77%)

2012 EF REGIONAL SEMIFINAL PICKS

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Regional Quarterfinals

EF Picks 2012: 72-24 (75%)
EF Picks 2011: 76-20 (79%)
EF Picks 2010: 72-24 (75%)

DP FAN 50 Picks 2012: 72-24 (75%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2011: 82-14 (85%)
DP FAN 50 Picks 2010: 77-19 (80%)

2012 EF REGIONAL QUARTERFINAL PICKS

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Regular Season Wrap

DAYTON DAILY NEWS
Last Week: (6-0)
Season: (44-16, 73%)
Talk
about a comeback. Down three games with six to go I made up ground and
caught Greg Billing in Week 10. It took a perfect performance and that’s
what I got. Have to thank Northmont, Piqua and Springfield Shawnee for
thier big wins.

DDN 2012 Pickers Final Standings
Eric Frantz (JJHuddle Managing Editor) 44-16
Greg Billing (Dayton Daily News Reporter) 44-16
Mike Hartsock (WHIO TV Sports Director) 35-25

Click Here
to see WHIO Pick Six Stats

COLUMBUS THISWEEK PICKS
Last Week: (14-1)
Season: (114-36, 76%)
I went out with a
bang with another 14-1 week, but it wasn’t enough to catapult into the
upper echelon. I finished mid-pack. Not bad for the first year, but not
good either.

ThisWeek Pickers Final Standings:
Andy Resnik (ThisWeek staff writer) 122-28
Jarrod Ulrey (ThisWeek staff writer) 121-29
Aaron Blankenship (ThisWeek staff writer) 117-33
Don Delco (ThisWeek web producer) 116-34
John Hulkenberg (ThisWeek staff writer) 115-35
Patrick Dolan (ThisWeek staff writer) 115-35
Eric Frantz (JJHuddle Managing Editor) 114-36
Scott Hennen (ThisWeek staff writer) 114-36
Lee Cochran (ThisWeek Managing Editor/Sports and Photography) 111-39
Brad Emerine (ThisWeek staff writer) 109-42
Dave Purpura(ThisWeek staff writer)  91-29

Click Here
to see ThisWeek Staff Wrap

OHIO 12 PACK
Last Week: (7-5)
Season: (87-33, 73%)
I
may have gone 20-1 combined in the DDN and TWN contests, but I finsihed
a disappointing 7-5 in the 12-pack. Just shows you how deep Ohio is
this year – and how rivalry games can go either way.

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