The Fantastic 50: Week 9 Playoff Odds…Only 80 spots left up for grabs?

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Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

Based on Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 formula, here’s a look at the 2012 postseason odds with two games to go…Drew says 69 teams have already “clinched” and that realistically, there are just 80 spots left up for grabs.


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This Week’s Fantastic 50

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This Week’s
Predictions

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These numbers are based on 25,000 simulations of the remainder of the
regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  For those
interested in more details about the methodology and results, they were
published here.  If you can’t access that site, but would like a copy of
the paper, then send me an e-mail.

In parenthesis are conditional Harbin point values and conditional
playoff probabilities, based on how many games a team wins.  For
example, 7W-18.9H-63% would mean that if that team wins exactly 7 games,
they would have an estimated 18.9 Harbin points and a 63% chance of
earning a berth.

This Week’s
Playoff Odds

After Week #8

*69 teams have clinched a berth
*112 teams have a 99% or better chance, leaving 80 berths realistically in play
*265 are fighting for one of those 80 berths, and 194 teams have a 2% or better chance

Region 1 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 21.35)
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 100%
St Edward (Lakewood) 100%
Mentor 100%
North Royalton 100%
Warren G Harding (Warren) 100%
South (Willoughby) 100%
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 99% (7W-69% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
North Olmsted 71% (6W-1% 7W-23% 8W-83% )
Cleveland Heights 18% (7W-1% 8W-27% )
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 5% (8W-5% )
Mayfield 4% (6W-10% )

Region 2 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 21.24)
Glenoak (Canton) 100%
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 100%
Whitmer (Toledo) 100%
Avon Lake 100%
Nordonia (Macedonia) 99% (7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 99% (6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Hudson 96% (7W-44% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Hoover (North Canton) 47% (6W-1% 7W-56% 8W-100% )
Findlay 23% (7W-2% 8W-30% )
Green 8% (7W-42% )
Elyria 7% (7W-1% 8W-87% )
Jackson (Massillon) 6% (5W-1% 6W-30% )
Brunswick 5% (6W-1% 7W-9% )
Twinsburg 5% (6W-1% 7W-59% )
Wadsworth 4% (6W-1% 7W-70% )

Region 3 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 21.47)
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 100%
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 100%
Olentangy (Lewis Center) 99% (7W-94% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 99% (8W-85% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Dublin Scioto (Dublin) 99% (6W-23% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 82% (7W-23% 8W-85% )
Westerville South (Westerville) 74% (7W-2% 8W-88% )
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 60% (6W-7% 7W-100% )
Lincoln (Gahanna) 39% (8W-77% 9W-100% )
Westerville Central (Westerville) 21% (7W-17% 8W-100% )
St Charles (Columbus) 18% (6W-1% 7W-60% )
Olentangy Liberty (Powell) 6% (7W-1% 8W-69% )

Region 4 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 23.25)
Colerain (Cincinnati) 100%
Springboro 99% (8W-86% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Wayne (Huber Heights) 99% (6W-53% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Lakota West (West Chester) 99% (8W-81% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 98% (6W-97% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Elder (Cincinnati) 85% (5W-21% 6W-91% 7W-100% )
Sycamore (Cincinnati) 71% (7W-1% 8W-62% 9W-99% )
Loveland 36% (6W-3% 7W-97% )
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 34% (5W-1% 6W-37% 7W-100% )
Withrow (Cincinnati) 29% (7W-1% 8W-65% )
Lebanon 21% (7W-1% 8W-89% )
Centerville 14% (6W-1% 7W-22% )
Miamisburg 6% (6W-1% 7W-34% )
Lakota East (Liberty Township) 5% (6W-1% 7W-64% )
Mason 3% (6W-1% 7W-9% )

Region 5 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.10)
Tallmadge 99% (6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Roosevelt (Kent) 99% (7W-60% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Aurora 99% (8W-98% 9W-100% )
Chardon 99% (6W-67% 7W-94% 8W-100% )
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 98% (6W-62% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
New Philadelphia 94% (7W-47% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Howland (Warren) 79% (6W-10% 7W-51% 8W-99% )
Ellet (Akron) 51% (7W-11% 8W-64% )
Madison 47% (6W-3% 7W-81% )
Copley 34% (5W-2% 6W-13% 7W-90% )

Region 6 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.95)
Central Catholic (Toledo) 100%
Columbian (Tiffin) 100%
Avon 99% (7W-81% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Westlake 99% (7W-84% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) 99% (7W-83% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Midview (Grafton) 97% (7W-36% 8W-88% 9W-99% )
Perrysburg 95% (6W-13% 7W-87% 8W-99% )
Madison Comprehensive (Mansfield) 46% (7W-1% 8W-61% 9W-99% )
Highland (Medina) 28% (6W-1% 7W-81% )
Norwalk 21% (7W-3% 8W-14% 9W-99% )
Rogers (Toledo) 9% (6W-1% 7W-13% )
Maumee 5% (6W-1% 7W-33% )

Region 7 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 19.75)
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 100%
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 100%
Zanesville 100%
Licking Heights (Pataskala) 100%
New Albany 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% )
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 85% (6W-1% 7W-32% 8W-99% )
Beechcroft (Columbus) 82% (6W-1% 7W-70% 8W-100% )
Canal Winchester 64% (7W-31% 8W-100% )
Brookhaven (Columbus) 37% (7W-1% 8W-99% )
Walnut Ridge (Columbus) 19% (6W-1% 7W-25% )
Ashland 11% (6W-1% 7W-31% )

Region 8 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.35)
Northwest (Cincinnati) 100%
Turpin (Cincinnati) 100%
Franklin 99% (7W-96% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 99% (5W-92% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 98% (8W-77% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 95% (7W-30% 8W-92% 9W-100% )
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 92% (7W-37% 8W-100% )
Western Brown (Mount Orab) 65% (8W-2% 9W-63% 10W-100% )
Celina 28% (7W-5% 8W-66% )
Butler (Vandalia) 12% (6W-6% 7W-99% )
Edgewood (Trenton) 7% (7W-1% 8W-60% )
Kings (Kings Mills) 2% (5W-1% 6W-8% )

Region 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.72)
Chagrin Falls 100%
Niles Mc Kinley (Niles) 100%
Ravenna 99% (6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
John Hay (Cleveland) 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% )
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 98% (6W-65% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Woodridge (Peninsula) 97% (6W-26% 7W-89% 8W-100% )
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 80% (7W-62% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Hubbard 43% (6W-11% 7W-66% )
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 30% (6W-13% 7W-99% )
Rocky River 13% (6W-3% 7W-100% )
Jefferson Area (Jefferson) 12% (7W-1% 8W-15% )
Buchtel (Akron) 12% (6W-35% )
Southeast (Ravenna) 5% (7W-3% 8W-100% )
Norton 3% (6W-1% 7W-75% )
University School (Hunting Valley) 2% (6W-13% )
Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) 2% (6W-5% )

Region 10 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.05)
Bellevue 100%
Napoleon 100%
Bryan 99% (9W-99% 10W-100% )
Urbana 99% (8W-99% 9W-100% )
Perkins (Sandusky) 99% (7W-100% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 96% (5W-51% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Elida 80% (6W-4% 7W-78% 8W-100% )
River Valley (Caledonia) 48% (7W-1% 8W-62% )
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 26% (6W-7% 7W-99% )
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 24% (5W-27% 6W-95% )
Independence (Columbus) 15% (6W-1% 7W-81% )
Clyde 5% (6W-6% )
Indian Lake (Lewistown) 5% (6W-1% 7W-82% )

Region 11 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.55)
Marlington (Alliance) 100%
West Holmes (Millersburg) 100%
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 99% (7W-31% 8W-89% 9W-99% )
Dover 96% (6W-71% 7W-90% 8W-100% )
Steubenville 84% (6W-19% 7W-94% 8W-100% )
Maysville (Zanesville) 77% (7W-7% 8W-47% 9W-100% )
Granville 72% (7W-1% 8W-66% 9W-100% )
Poland Seminary (Poland) 65% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-87% )
Struthers 49% (5W-1% 6W-82% 7W-100% )
Philo (Duncan Falls) 26% (8W-52% 9W-100% )
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 16% (4W-3% 5W-97% )
Canton South (Canton) 10% (7W-1% 8W-34% )
Licking Valley (Newark) 4% (7W-5% )

Region 12 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.30)
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 100%
Circleville 100%
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 100%
Athens (The Plains) 99% (7W-92% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Gallia Academy (Gallipolis) 89% (6W-2% 7W-81% 8W-100% )
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 77% (6W-21% 7W-57% 8W-100% )
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 65% (5W-1% 6W-40% 7W-97% )
Mc Clain (Greenfield) 38% (6W-7% 7W-58% )
Shawnee (Springfield) 29% (6W-4% 7W-99% )
Logan Elm (Circleville) 27% (5W-10% 6W-90% )
Kenton Ridge (Springfield) 27% (6W-3% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Jackson 24% (6W-5% 7W-96% )
Miami Trace (Washington Court House) 14% (6W-16% 7W-100% )
Taft (Cincinnati) 5% (7W-14% )
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 5% (5W-28% )

Region 13 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.50)
Brookfield 100%
Norwayne (Creston) 99% (8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Streetsboro 94% (6W-80% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Northwestern (West Salem) 94% (7W-59% 8W-91% 9W-100% )
Hawken (Gates Mills) 93% (7W-13% 8W-93% 9W-100% )
Liberty (Youngstown) 92% (7W-7% 8W-89% 9W-100% )
Manchester (Akron) 87% (5W-6% 6W-81% 7W-100% )
Tuslaw (Massillon) 59% (5W-1% 6W-28% 7W-99% )
Lakeview (Cortland) 36% (6W-4% 7W-99% )
Triway (Wooster) 15% (6W-1% 7W-17% )
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 13% (5W-1% 6W-50% )
Beachwood 9% (7W-17% 8W-100% )
Edgewood (Ashtabula) 4% (6W-1% 7W-11% )
Cardinal (Middlefield) 3% (6W-1% 7W-39% )

Region 14 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.45)
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 100%
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 100%
North Union (Richwood) 100%
Genoa Area (Genoa) 99% (8W-83% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 98% (7W-97% 8W-100% )
Galion 91% (7W-23% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Clearview (Lorain) 71% (6W-30% 7W-53% 8W-99% )
Kenton 54% (6W-15% 7W-90% )
Huron 24% (6W-2% 7W-35% )
Oak Harbor 24% (7W-4% 8W-99% )
Eastwood (Pemberville) 15% (6W-1% 7W-79% )
Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 13% (6W-4% 7W-99% )
Upper Sandusky 7% (7W-10% )
Ontario (Mansfield) 4% (6W-1% 7W-14% )

Region 15 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 11.55)
Ironton 100%
Piketon 100%
St Clairsville 100%
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 100%
Minford 100%
Harrison Central (Cadiz) 86% (5W-4% 6W-33% 7W-92% )
Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 68% (4W-9% 5W-63% 6W-100% )
Zane Trace (Chillicothe) 57% (4W-22% 5W-86% )
Martins Ferry 47% (5W-2% 6W-93% 7W-100% )
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 14% (4W-3% 5W-67% )
Bloom-Carroll (Carroll) 11% (4W-7% 5W-99% )
Chesapeake 11% (5W-1% 6W-37% )
Unioto (Chillicothe) 7% (5W-1% 6W-36% )

Region 16 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.98)
Westfall (Williamsport) 100%
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 100%
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Norwood 99% (7W-97% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Batavia 99% (9W-98% 10W-100% )
Milton-Union (West Milton) 63% (7W-14% 8W-99% )
Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) 52% (6W-5% 7W-55% 8W-100% )
Madeira (Cincinnati) 43% (8W-4% 9W-98% )
Shroder (Cincinnati) 42% (7W-6% 8W-44% )
Brookville 40% (6W-1% 7W-45% 8W-100% )
Waynesville 37% (7W-3% 8W-99% )
Carlisle 17% (8W-28% )
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 6% (6W-1% 7W-56% )

Region 17 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.05)
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 100%
Crestview (Columbiana) 100%
Kirtland 100%
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 100%
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 99% (7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Ursuline (Youngstown) 99% (5W-95% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
Bellaire 98% (6W-90% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Columbiana 68% (6W-1% 7W-73% 8W-98% )
South Range (North Lima) 15% (7W-2% 8W-81% )
Fort Frye (Beverly) 8% (7W-1% 8W-75% )
Memorial (Campbell) 8% (5W-1% 6W-10% )
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 3% (7W-5% )

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.95)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 100%
Northwood 100%
Archbold 99% (7W-47% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 93% (7W-44% 8W-99% )
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 79% (7W-1% 8W-60% 9W-100% )
Columbia (Columbia Station) 78% (7W-2% 8W-74% 9W-100% )
Wayne Trace (Haviland) 62% (8W-1% 9W-86% )
Western Reserve (Collins) 52% (7W-4% 8W-62% )
Spencerville 50% (7W-1% 8W-85% )
Liberty Center 39% (7W-10% 8W-100% )
Carey 32% (7W-2% 8W-84% )
Seneca East (Attica) 10% (7W-1% 8W-24% )
Jefferson (Delphos) 6% (7W-1% 8W-98% )

Region 19 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 11.60)
Wynford (Bucyrus) 100%
Oak Hill 100%
Wheelersburg 100%
Loudonville 99% (6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Valley (Lucasville) 99% (8W-97% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 96% (6W-82% 7W-95% 8W-100% )
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 61% (6W-8% 7W-37% 8W-100% )
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 56% (6W-1% 7W-59% 8W-99% )
East Knox (Howard) 35% (5W-1% 6W-86% 7W-100% )
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 22% (5W-2% 6W-95% )
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 13% (6W-19% )
Fredericktown 7% (5W-1% 6W-53% )
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 4% (7W-26% )
Bucyrus 4% (5W-5% 6W-85% )
Federal Hocking (Stewart) 2% (7W-1% 8W-79% )

Region 20 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.15)
Coldwater 100%
Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) 100%
Covington 100%
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 99% (8W-94% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Dayton Christian (Miamisburg) 99% (8W-68% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Triad (North Lewisburg) 72% (7W-1% 8W-72% 9W-100% )
Dixie (New Lebanon) 66% (6W-3% 7W-65% 8W-100% )
West Jefferson 60% (7W-1% 8W-88% )
Pleasant (Marion) 53% (7W-2% 8W-79% )
Versailles 32% (6W-2% 7W-90% )
Miami East (Casstown) 13% (6W-1% 7W-17% )
Mariemont (Cincinnati) 2% (6W-5% )

Region 21 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 12.05)
Mogadore 100%
John F Kennedy (Warren) 100%
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 100%
Malvern 100%
Shadyside 100%
Fairport Harding (Fairport Harbor) 99% (5W-95% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 99% (6W-66% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Catholic Central (Steubenville) 98% (6W-92% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Leetonia 3% (6W-1% 7W-11% )

Region 22 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 9.75)
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 100%
Delphos St John’s 100%
Leipsic 100%
Mc Comb 100%
St Paul (Norwalk) 98% (5W-69% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Arlington 96% (5W-30% 6W-78% 7W-98% )
Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 90% (6W-20% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Calvert (Tiffin) 87% (4W-26% 5W-91% 6W-100% )
Edon 11% (6W-1% 7W-23% )
Ayersville (Defiance) 7% (5W-1% 6W-83% )
Toledo Christian (Toledo) 4% (5W-1% 6W-86% )
Monroeville 3% (5W-31% )
Crestview (Convoy) 2% (4W-1% 5W-6% )

Region 23 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 11.19)
Danville 100%
Trimble (Glouster) 100%
Newark Catholic (Newark) 100%
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 100%
Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) 99% (6W-72% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 71% (6W-9% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Notre Dame (Portsmouth) 66% (6W-2% 7W-31% 8W-100% )
River (Hannibal) 65% (6W-29% 7W-86% )
Fairfield Christian Academy (Lancaster) 63% (6W-1% 7W-50% 8W-99% )
Eastern (Reedsville) 34% (6W-7% 7W-70% )

Region 24 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 9.85)
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 100%
Ada 100%
Fort Loramie 100%
St Henry 99% (5W-95% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Bradford 99% (6W-95% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Minster 98% (6W-95% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 87% (5W-17% 6W-57% 7W-98% )
Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 43% (4W-30% 5W-99% 6W-100% )
Jefferson Township (Dayton) 42% (6W-59% 7W-99% )
Southeastern Local (South Charleston) 20% (6W-25% 7W-99% )
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 6% (5W-61% )
New Miami (Hamilton) 3% (6W-39% 7W-100% )
Oyler (Cincinnati) 3% (4W-44% )

_______________________________________________________________________

We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

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