The Fantastic 50: Week 8 Playoff Odds

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Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

Based on Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 formula, here’s a look at the 2012 postseason odds with three games to go…


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This Week’s Fantastic 50

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This Week’s
Predictions

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These numbers are based on 25,000 simulations of the remainder of the
regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  For those
interested in more details about the methodology and results, they were
published here.  If you can’t access that site, but would like a copy of
the paper, then send me an e-mail.

In parenthesis are conditional Harbin point values and conditional
playoff probabilities, based on how many games a team wins.  For
example, 7W-18.9H-63% would mean that if that team wins exactly 7 games,
they would have an estimated 18.9 Harbin points and a 63% chance of
earning a berth.

This Week’s
Playoff Odds

Region 1 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 23.25)
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
South (Willoughby) 100% (9W-100% 10W-100% )
Mentor 99% (7W-91% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
North Royalton 99% (7W-37% 8W-97% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
St Edward (Lakewood) 99% (7W-85% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Warren G Harding (Warren) 94% (7W-27% 8W-85% 9W-100% )
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 93% (7W-44% 8W-87% 9W-99% )
Shaker Heights 41% (8W-4% 9W-58% )
Cleveland Heights 28% (7W-1% 8W-16% 9W-100% )
Mayfield 22% (6W-2% 7W-82% )
Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights) 9% (6W-1% 7W-85% )
North Olmsted 5% (7W-1% 8W-8% )
Boardman (Youngstown) 4% (6W-1% 7W-18% )
Solon 2% (6W-1% 7W-7% )
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 2% (8W-2% )

Region 2 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 21.55)
Whitmer (Toledo) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 99% (6W-98% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Nordonia (Macedonia) 99% (7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Glenoak (Canton) 99% (6W-72% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Avon Lake 90% (6W-29% 7W-80% 8W-99% )
Hudson 89% (6W-1% 7W-76% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 85% (5W-1% 6W-74% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Hoover (North Canton) 62% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-58% 8W-99% )
Findlay 37% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-63% )
Green 22% (7W-14% 8W-95% )
Brunswick 7% (6W-1% 7W-18% )
Elyria 3% (7W-2% 8W-78% )

Region 3 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 21.68)
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 99% (8W-94% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 99% (8W-90% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Olentangy (Lewis Center) 99% (7W-96% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 99% (7W-62% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Dublin Scioto (Dublin) 99% (6W-21% 7W-96% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Westerville Central (Westerville) 67% (6W-1% 7W-25% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 66% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-99% )
St Charles (Columbus) 61% (6W-4% 7W-63% 8W-99% )
Westerville South (Westerville) 29% (7W-1% 8W-74% )
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 28% (7W-1% 8W-61% )
Lincoln (Gahanna) 27% (7W-1% 8W-74% 9W-100% )
Olentangy Liberty (Powell) 23% (7W-1% 8W-36% 9W-100% )

Region 4 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 24.05)
Colerain (Cincinnati) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Springboro 99% (8W-72% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Lakota West (West Chester) 94% (7W-7% 8W-67% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Sycamore (Cincinnati) 88% (7W-18% 8W-79% 9W-99% )
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 72% (5W-12% 6W-82% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Wayne (Huber Heights) 71% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-77% 8W-99% )
Elder (Cincinnati) 65% (5W-3% 6W-81% 7W-100% )
Centerville 50% (6W-2% 7W-26% 8W-99% )
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 49% (6W-34% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Loveland 47% (6W-1% 7W-16% 8W-99% )
Withrow (Cincinnati) 25% (7W-1% 8W-63% )
Lebanon 22% (6W-1% 7W-1% 8W-83% )
Lakota East (Liberty Township) 12% (6W-1% 7W-17% 8W-99% )
Miamisburg 5% (6W-1% 7W-22% 8W-99% )

Region 5 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.10)
Chardon 99% (7W-94% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Tallmadge 99% (5W-18% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Roosevelt (Kent) 99% (7W-56% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Howland (Warren) 97% (6W-9% 7W-63% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 96% (6W-32% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Aurora 95% (7W-29% 8W-94% 9W-100% )
New Philadelphia 95% (7W-15% 8W-91% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Copley 58% (5W-3% 6W-15% 7W-80% 8W-100% )
Ellet (Akron) 32% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-59% )
Madison 22% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-33% )
Louisville 6% (6W-1% 7W-16% )

Region 6 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 20.62)
Central Catholic (Toledo) 99% (7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Columbian (Tiffin) 99% (8W-92% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Avon 98% (7W-47% 8W-86% 9W-100% )
Perrysburg 91% (6W-8% 7W-40% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) 90% (6W-4% 7W-49% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Midview (Grafton) 87% (7W-11% 8W-59% 9W-99% )
Westlake 83% (7W-18% 8W-87% 9W-100% )
Madison Comprehensive (Mansfield) 56% (7W-7% 8W-57% 9W-99% )
Norwalk 43% (8W-4% 9W-80% 10W-100% )
Rogers (Toledo) 41% (6W-1% 7W-11% 8W-75% )
Lexington 7% (7W-5% 8W-89% )
Maumee 3% (6W-1% 7W-23% )

Region 7 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.65)
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 99% (7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Licking Heights (Pataskala) 99% (9W-99% 10W-100% )
New Albany 99% (6W-54% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Zanesville 99% (7W-79% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Beechcroft (Columbus) 89% (6W-11% 7W-87% 8W-100% )
Brookhaven (Columbus) 57% (6W-1% 7W-34% 8W-99% )
Canal Winchester 44% (6W-1% 7W-43% 8W-99% )
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 28% (6W-1% 7W-16% 8W-99% )
Teays Valley (Ashville) 19% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-97% )
Walnut Ridge (Columbus) 17% (6W-1% 7W-64% )
Mount Vernon 17% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-77% 8W-100% )
Ashland 12% (6W-3% 7W-69% )
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 9% (7W-2% 8W-92% )
Hamilton Township (Columbus) 7% (7W-1% 8W-17% )
Mifflin (Columbus) 4% (7W-1% 8W-39% )

Region 8 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 19.05)
Turpin (Cincinnati) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Northwest (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-88% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 99% (7W-33% 8W-89% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 99% (5W-77% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 98% (7W-5% 8W-71% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Franklin 93% (6W-12% 7W-36% 8W-94% 9W-100% )
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 89% (6W-7% 7W-63% 8W-99% )
Celina 57% (7W-9% 8W-60% 9W-98% )
Western Brown (Mount Orab) 47% (8W-5% 9W-53% 10W-98% )
Butler (Vandalia) 11% (6W-4% 7W-94% )
Edgewood (Trenton) 4% (7W-1% 8W-67% )
Anderson (Cincinnati) 3% (5W-1% 6W-25% )

Region 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.31)
Chagrin Falls 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Ravenna 99% (5W-47% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
John Hay (Cleveland) 97% (6W-9% 7W-85% 8W-100% )
Woodridge (Peninsula) 94% (6W-19% 7W-87% 8W-99% )
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 94% (5W-8% 6W-61% 7W-96% 8W-100% )
Niles Mc Kinley (Niles) 88% (6W-28% 7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 62% (6W-1% 7W-30% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Hubbard 44% (6W-3% 7W-41% 8W-99% )
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 38% (5W-1% 6W-19% 7W-98% )
Jefferson Area (Jefferson) 21% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-28% )
Buchtel (Akron) 20% (5W-1% 6W-55% )
Rocky River 15% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-99% )
Norton 9% (6W-1% 7W-79% 8W-100% )
Southeast (Ravenna) 8% (7W-13% 8W-100% )
Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) 5% (5W-1% 6W-17% )
Field (Mogadore) 3% (5W-9% )
University School (Hunting Valley) 2% (5W-1% 6W-32% )

Region 10 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.70)
Napoleon 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Bryan 99% (8W-66% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Bellevue 99% (6W-49% 7W-94% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Urbana 99% (7W-48% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Perkins (Sandusky) 98% (7W-70% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 74% (6W-12% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 66% (4W-1% 5W-52% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 63% (4W-1% 5W-22% 6W-96% 7W-100% )
Elida 51% (6W-2% 7W-54% 8W-99% )
River Valley (Caledonia) 28% (7W-2% 8W-35% )
Independence (Columbus) 16% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-54% )
Indian Lake (Lewistown) 6% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-75% )
Buckeye Valley (Delaware) 2% (7W-1% 8W-60% )

Region 11 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 17.74)
Marlington (Alliance) 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
West Holmes (Millersburg) 99% (6W-62% 7W-98% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 90% (7W-16% 8W-66% 9W-99% )
Granville 87% (7W-15% 8W-93% 9W-100% )
Maysville (Zanesville) 85% (7W-12% 8W-83% 9W-100% )
Dover 80% (6W-4% 7W-89% 8W-100% )
Steubenville 53% (6W-12% 7W-81% 8W-100% )
Struthers 44% (4W-1% 5W-13% 6W-89% 7W-100% )
Philo (Duncan Falls) 42% (7W-3% 8W-90% 9W-100% )
Poland Seminary (Poland) 40% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-91% )
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 20% (4W-33% 5W-99% )
Canton South (Canton) 18% (7W-1% 8W-66% 9W-100% )
Carrollton 15% (7W-3% 8W-43% )
Licking Valley (Newark) 11% (6W-1% 7W-24% )
Cambridge 9% (6W-1% 7W-20% 8W-99% )
John Glenn (New Concord) 6% (6W-1% 7W-35% 8W-100% )

Region 12 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.30)
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% )
Circleville 100% (6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 99% (6W-96% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Athens (The Plains) 99% (7W-94% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Gallia Academy (Gallipolis) 93% (5W-2% 6W-34% 7W-87% 8W-100% )
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 64% (6W-4% 7W-63% 8W-99% )
Mc Clain (Greenfield) 59% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-70% 8W-99% )
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 44% (5W-2% 6W-12% 7W-90% )
Logan Elm (Circleville) 29% (5W-8% 6W-88% 7W-100% )
Eaton 23% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-94% )
Kenton Ridge (Springfield) 20% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-96% 8W-100% )
Jackson 16% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-97% )
Shawnee (Springfield) 15% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-99% )
Miami Trace (Washington Court House) 13% (5W-1% 6W-31% 7W-100% )
Goshen 12% (6W-2% 7W-48% )
Washington (Washington Court House) 3% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-96% )
Taft (Cincinnati) 3% (7W-19% )
Dunbar (Dayton) 3% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-96% )
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 3% (4W-1% 5W-12% )

Region 13 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.65)
Brookfield 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Norwayne (Creston) 99% (7W-53% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Liberty (Youngstown) 90% (6W-5% 7W-23% 8W-89% 9W-100% )
Hawken (Gates Mills) 85% (7W-12% 8W-82% 9W-100% )
Northwestern (West Salem) 83% (7W-50% 8W-77% 9W-100% )
Streetsboro 77% (5W-2% 6W-60% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Triway (Wooster) 68% (6W-2% 7W-30% 8W-99% )
Tuslaw (Massillon) 51% (5W-1% 6W-18% 7W-91% )
Manchester (Akron) 36% (5W-1% 6W-44% 7W-100% )
Beachwood 36% (6W-1% 7W-36% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 29% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-99% )
Lakeview (Cortland) 23% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-99% )
Cardinal (Middlefield) 16% (6W-1% 7W-28% 8W-99% )
Sandy Valley (Magnolia) 4% (6W-2% 7W-93% )

Region 14 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.00)
Genoa Area (Genoa) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
North Union (Richwood) 99% (8W-90% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 98% (6W-87% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Galion 95% (7W-38% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Oak Harbor 80% (6W-1% 7W-25% 8W-93% 9W-100% )
Clearview (Lorain) 44% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-37% 8W-98% )
Kenton 22% (6W-10% 7W-91% )
Huron 15% (6W-1% 7W-26% )
Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 12% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-99% )
Upper Sandusky 10% (6W-1% 7W-18% )
Eastwood (Pemberville) 7% (6W-2% 7W-91% )
Otsego (Tontogany) 7% (6W-1% 7W-32% )
Bath (Lima) 4% (6W-1% 7W-64% 8W-100% )
Ontario (Mansfield) 4% (6W-1% 7W-15% )

Region 15 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 11.73)
Ironton 100% (5W-100% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
St Clairsville 100% (9W-100% 10W-100% )
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 99% (6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Minford 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Piketon 97% (5W-21% 6W-54% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Harrison Central (Cadiz) 90% (6W-33% 7W-90% 8W-100% )
Martins Ferry 68% (5W-2% 6W-19% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Zane Trace (Chillicothe) 61% (4W-26% 5W-81% 6W-100% )
Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 58% (4W-13% 5W-80% 6W-100% )
Chesapeake 16% (5W-2% 6W-40% )
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 6% (4W-1% 5W-28% )
Unioto (Chillicothe) 2% (5W-1% 6W-36% )

Region 16 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 16.35)
Westfall (Williamsport) 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 99% (6W-17% 7W-85% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Batavia 98% (8W-78% 9W-96% 10W-100% )
Milton-Union (West Milton) 93% (7W-6% 8W-91% 9W-100% )
Norwood 81% (6W-1% 7W-21% 8W-97% 9W-100% )
Brookville 74% (6W-2% 7W-48% 8W-97% 9W-100% )
Madeira (Cincinnati) 56% (7W-1% 8W-16% 9W-98% )
Shroder (Cincinnati) 28% (7W-2% 8W-35% )
Waynesville 24% (7W-1% 8W-85% )
Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) 20% (6W-2% 7W-46% 8W-100% )
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 16% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-99% )
Carlisle 7% (7W-1% 8W-11% )
Badin (Hamilton) 4% (6W-1% 7W-7% )
Blanchester 2% (6W-1% 7W-12% )

Region 17 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.17)
Crestview (Columbiana) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Kirtland 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 98% (6W-50% 7W-80% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Ursuline (Youngstown) 90% (4W-37% 5W-90% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Columbiana 90% (6W-6% 7W-36% 8W-74% 9W-99% )
Bellaire 86% (5W-46% 6W-61% 7W-79% 8W-99% )
Memorial (Campbell) 23% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-58% )
Fort Frye (Beverly) 7% (6W-1% 7W-1% 8W-60% )
South Range (North Lima) 4% (6W-1% 7W-1% 8W-60% )

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.90)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Northwood 99% (8W-72% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 99% (7W-42% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Western Reserve (Collins) 95% (7W-14% 8W-88% 9W-100% )
Columbia (Columbia Station) 93% (6W-18% 7W-33% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 80% (7W-2% 8W-70% 9W-100% )
Liberty Center 78% (6W-1% 7W-25% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Archbold 51% (7W-7% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Spencerville 29% (7W-1% 8W-77% )
Carey 29% (7W-3% 8W-80% )
Tinora (Defiance) 17% (8W-1% 9W-27% )
Wayne Trace (Haviland) 15% (8W-1% 9W-76% )
Jefferson (Delphos) 7% (7W-2% 8W-96% )
Seneca East (Attica) 4% (7W-1% 8W-36% )
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 2% (6W-1% 7W-13% )

Region 19 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 12.00)
Oak Hill 99% (6W-100% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Wheelersburg 99% (6W-85% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Wynford (Bucyrus) 99% (6W-73% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Valley (Lucasville) 98% (8W-85% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Loudonville 96% (5W-8% 6W-76% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 86% (6W-57% 7W-82% 8W-100% )
East Knox (Howard) 63% (5W-2% 6W-89% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 49% (5W-4% 6W-89% 7W-100% )
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 48% (6W-2% 7W-25% 8W-99% )
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 22% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-99% )
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 12% (7W-18% 8W-96% )
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 8% (5W-1% 6W-24% )
Crooksville 7% (4W-1% 5W-4% 6W-83% )
Fredericktown 6% (5W-2% 6W-50% )
Bucyrus 2% (4W-1% 5W-7% 6W-84% )

Region 20 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.15)
Coldwater 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Covington 100% (9W-100% 10W-100% )
Dayton Christian (Miamisburg) 99% (7W-23% 8W-73% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 98% (8W-53% 9W-95% 10W-100% )
West Jefferson 71% (7W-3% 8W-76% 9W-100% )
Versailles 68% (6W-10% 7W-95% 8W-100% )
Triad (North Lewisburg) 58% (7W-5% 8W-59% 9W-100% )
Pleasant (Marion) 44% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-82% )
Mariemont (Cincinnati) 17% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-99% )
Madison Plains (London) 11% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-46% )
Paint Valley (Bainbridge) 11% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-96% )
Dixie (New Lebanon) 10% (6W-1% 7W-29% 8W-100% )
Miami East (Casstown) 5% (6W-1% 7W-19% )
Clark Montessori (Cincinnati) 3% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-99% )
National Trail (New Paris) 3% (7W-1% 8W-31% 9W-100% )

Region 21 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.90)
Mogadore 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Malvern 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Shadyside 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
John F Kennedy (Warren) 99% (6W-100% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Catholic Central (Steubenville) 99% (5W-95% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 99% (5W-83% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Fairport Harding (Fairport Harbor) 97% (4W-46% 5W-85% 6W-98% 7W-100% )
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 70% (5W-1% 6W-36% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Leetonia 14% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-55% )
Tuscarawas Central Catholic (New Philadelphia) 8% (5W-1% 6W-24% 7W-93% )
Conotton Valley (Bowerston) 3% (5W-1% 6W-18% 7W-100% )
Ledgemont (Thompson) 2% (5W-1% 6W-11% )
East Canton 2% (4W-1% 5W-1% 6W-79% )
Mineral Ridge 2% (5W-1% 6W-22% )

Region 22 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 9.30)
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Leipsic 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Mc Comb 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Arlington 96% (5W-50% 6W-85% 7W-98% )
Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 90% (6W-36% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Delphos St John’s 88% (4W-9% 5W-56% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
St Paul (Norwalk) 86% (4W-4% 5W-33% 6W-92% 7W-99% )
Calvert (Tiffin) 84% (4W-16% 5W-77% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
Edon 18% (6W-1% 7W-36% )
Ayersville (Defiance) 16% (5W-1% 6W-54% 7W-100% )
Crestview (Convoy) 13% (4W-1% 5W-9% 6W-99% )
Toledo Christian (Toledo) 5% (5W-1% 6W-90% 7W-100% )
Pandora-Gilboa (Pandora) 3% (5W-1% 6W-51% 7W-100% )

Region 23 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.30)
Danville 100% (6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Trimble (Glouster) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% )
Newark Catholic (Newark) 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 100% (6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) 99% (6W-81% 7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 88% (6W-40% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Notre Dame (Portsmouth) 78% (6W-12% 7W-70% 8W-99% )
River (Hannibal) 64% (5W-8% 6W-37% 7W-86% )
Eastern (Reedsville) 29% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-95% )
Fairfield Christian Academy (Lancaster) 27% (6W-1% 7W-31% 8W-89% )
Plymouth 13% (5W-1% 6W-29% 7W-99% )

Region 24 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.83)
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 100% (6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Ada 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Fort Loramie 100% (6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Bradford 99% (7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
St Henry 99% (4W-95% 5W-94% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Minster 92% (5W-39% 6W-82% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 76% (4W-40% 5W-89% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 76% (5W-6% 6W-38% 7W-98% )
Southeastern Local (South Charleston) 32% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-61% 8W-100% )
Jefferson Township (Dayton) 15% (5W-4% 6W-65% )
Oyler (Cincinnati) 5% (4W-52% )
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 4% (4W-1% 5W-33%)

_______________________________________________________________________

We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

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