The Fantastic 50: Week 7 Playoff Odds

Image

Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

Based on Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 formula, here’s a look at the 2012 postseason odds with four games to go…


_______________________________________________________________________

This Week’s Fantastic 50

_______________________________________________________________________

This Week’s
Predictions

_______________________________________________________________________

These numbers are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the
regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  For those
interested in more details about the methodology and results, they were
published here.  If you can’t access that site, but would like a copy of
the paper, then send me an e-mail.

In parenthesis are conditional Harbin point values and conditional
playoff probabilities, based on how many games a team wins.  For
example, 7W-18.9H-63% would mean that if that team wins exactly 7 games,
they would have an estimated 18.9 Harbin points and a 63% chance of
earning a berth.

This Week’s
Playoff Odds

Region 1 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 23.75)
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 99% (7W-99% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
South (Willoughby) 99% (8W-88% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Mentor 99% (7W-63% 8W-97% 9W-100% )
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 98% (7W-21% 8W-82% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
St Edward (Lakewood) 97% (6W-14% 7W-70% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
North Royalton 87% (7W-6% 8W-57% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Warren G Harding (Warren) 66% (7W-6% 8W-65% 9W-99% )
Mayfield 42% (6W-4% 7W-80% 8W-100% )
Euclid 30% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-95% )
Cleveland Heights 24% (7W-1% 8W-6% 9W-92% )
Boardman (Youngstown) 22% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-96% )
Shaker Heights 19% (8W-1% 9W-30% )
Solon 6% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-99% )
Midpark (Middleburg Heights) 4% (8W-1% 9W-35% )
Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights) 3% (6W-1% 7W-55% )

Region 2 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 22.10)
Avon Lake 98% (6W-27% 7W-78% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Whitmer (Toledo) 96% (7W-24% 8W-83% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 96% (5W-6% 6W-75% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 93% (5W-5% 6W-68% 7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Glenoak (Canton) 90% (6W-20% 7W-81% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Hudson 88% (5W-4% 6W-13% 7W-74% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Nordonia (Macedonia) 84% (6W-3% 7W-50% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Brunswick 56% (6W-3% 7W-30% 8W-94% )
Findlay 53% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-63% 9W-100% )
Hoover (North Canton) 24% (6W-3% 7W-45% 8W-99% )
Green 9% (6W-1% 7W-13% 8W-83% )
Wadsworth 5% (6W-1% 7W-29% 8W-99% )
Anthony Wayne (Whitehouse) 4% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-84% )
Elyria 3% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-80% )

Region 3 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 22.10)
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 99% (8W-71% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Olentangy (Lewis Center) 99% (7W-76% 8W-97% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 98% (8W-49% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Dublin Scioto (Dublin) 97% (6W-12% 7W-84% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 83% (7W-8% 8W-90% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Westerville South (Westerville) 67% (7W-6% 8W-85% 9W-100% )
Westerville Central (Westerville) 63% (6W-1% 7W-19% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 62% (5W-2% 6W-30% 7W-99% )
St Charles (Columbus) 49% (6W-6% 7W-47% 8W-95% )
Olentangy Liberty (Powell) 29% (7W-1% 8W-32% 9W-100% )
Lincoln (Gahanna) 29% (7W-4% 8W-78% 9W-100% )
Reynoldsburg 15% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-95% )
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 5% (7W-1% 8W-33% )
Troy 4% (6W-1% 7W-51% )

Region 4 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 23.20)
Colerain (Cincinnati) 99% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Wayne (Huber Heights) 99% (6W-41% 7W-93% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Springboro 97% (7W-3% 8W-56% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 91% (5W-26% 6W-86% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Lakota West (West Chester) 88% (7W-17% 8W-78% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Sycamore (Cincinnati) 72% (6W-2% 7W-28% 8W-86% 9W-100% )
Lakota East (Liberty Township) 67% (6W-8% 7W-61% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 51% (5W-1% 6W-48% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Withrow (Cincinnati) 32% (7W-2% 8W-85% )
Elder (Cincinnati) 31% (5W-12% 6W-93% 7W-100% )
Centerville 20% (6W-1% 7W-28% 8W-99% )
Lebanon 19% (7W-1% 8W-68% )
Loveland 16% (6W-1% 7W-26% 8W-97% )
Xenia 7% (7W-1% 8W-71% )
Miamisburg 3% (6W-1% 7W-59% 8W-100% )
La Salle (Cincinnati) 2% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-80% )
Oak Hills (Cincinnati) 2% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-57% )

Region 5 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 17.75)
Chardon 99% (7W-95% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Tallmadge 99% (5W-25% 6W-96% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
New Philadelphia 97% (7W-40% 8W-94% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Roosevelt (Kent) 95% (6W-14% 7W-64% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Aurora 91% (7W-31% 8W-87% 9W-100% )
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 89% (5W-4% 6W-34% 7W-96% 8W-100% )
Louisville 74% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-71% 8W-99% )
Howland (Warren) 56% (6W-4% 7W-55% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Copley 50% (5W-3% 6W-22% 7W-86% 8W-100% )
Madison 32% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-51% 8W-100% )
Ellet (Akron) 6% (7W-1% 8W-37% )
West Geauga (Chesterland) 5% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-99% )
Lake (Uniontown) 2% (4W-2% 5W-66% 6W-100% )
Garfield (Akron) 2% (6W-1% 7W-54% )

Region 6 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.85)
Central Catholic (Toledo) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Columbian (Tiffin) 99% (8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Midview (Grafton) 99% (7W-39% 8W-87% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Perrysburg 96% (6W-29% 7W-76% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Madison Comprehensive (Mansfield) 77% (6W-4% 7W-31% 8W-87% 9W-100% )
Avon 73% (6W-3% 7W-12% 8W-69% 9W-100% )
Rogers (Toledo) 72% (6W-8% 7W-49% 8W-97% )
Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) 71% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-67% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Norwalk 50% (7W-2% 8W-23% 9W-97% 10W-100% )
Westlake 39% (6W-1% 7W-19% 8W-92% 9W-100% )
Lexington 8% (6W-1% 7W-29% 8W-98% )
Highland (Medina) 6% (6W-2% 7W-61% )
Maumee 6% (6W-1% 7W-61% )

Region 7 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.24)
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 99% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 99% (7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Zanesville 99% (7W-75% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Licking Heights (Pataskala) 99% (9W-99% 10W-100% )
New Albany 84% (6W-27% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Beechcroft (Columbus) 79% (6W-8% 7W-95% 8W-100% )
Brookhaven (Columbus) 63% (6W-1% 7W-40% 8W-100% )
Mount Vernon 49% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-74% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Hamilton Township (Columbus) 44% (7W-1% 8W-32% 9W-97% )
Canal Winchester 17% (6W-1% 7W-43% 8W-100% )
Teays Valley (Ashville) 17% (5W-1% 6W-20% 7W-99% )
Walnut Ridge (Columbus) 16% (6W-1% 7W-72% )
Mifflin (Columbus) 10% (7W-1% 8W-40% 9W-100% )
Ashland 9% (6W-3% 7W-65% )
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 7% (6W-1% 7W-9% 8W-97% )
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 5% (7W-3% 8W-96% )

Region 8 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 19.45)
Turpin (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-96% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 99% (6W-97% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 98% (7W-14% 8W-68% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 92% (7W-6% 8W-72% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Northwest (Cincinnati) 91% (7W-12% 8W-78% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Franklin 88% (6W-8% 7W-38% 8W-93% 9W-100% )
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 85% (6W-4% 7W-50% 8W-98% )
Western Brown (Mount Orab) 75% (7W-1% 8W-17% 9W-79% 10W-99% )
Celina 39% (7W-3% 8W-34% 9W-97% )
Anderson (Cincinnati) 13% (5W-1% 6W-46% 7W-100% )
Edgewood (Trenton) 13% (7W-2% 8W-70% 9W-100% )
Harrison 4% (5W-1% 6W-18% 7W-100% )

Region 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.90)
Chagrin Falls 99% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Niles Mc Kinley (Niles) 99% (6W-35% 7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Ravenna 99% (5W-69% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
John Hay (Cleveland) 96% (6W-12% 7W-86% 8W-99% )
Woodridge (Peninsula) 92% (6W-24% 7W-93% 8W-99% )
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 76% (5W-8% 6W-43% 7W-90% 8W-100% )
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 66% (6W-3% 7W-31% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Buchtel (Akron) 53% (5W-1% 6W-68% 7W-100% )
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 30% (5W-1% 6W-26% 7W-98% )
Norton 23% (6W-1% 7W-45% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) 14% (6W-1% 7W-40% )
Benedictine (Cleveland) 14% (4W-1% 5W-4% 6W-34% 7W-93% )
Field (Mogadore) 10% (4W-1% 5W-10% 6W-93% )
Rocky River 9% (4W-1% 5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-97% )
Southeast (Ravenna) 8% (6W-1% 7W-12% 8W-100% )
Crestwood (Mantua) 5% (4W-1% 5W-11% 6W-99% )
Hubbard 2% (6W-1% 7W-25% 8W-100% )
Jefferson Area (Jefferson) 2% (7W-1% 8W-8% )

Region 10 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.20)
Napoleon 100% (6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Bellevue 99% (6W-76% 7W-99% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Urbana 99% (7W-66% 8W-97% 9W-99% )
Perkins (Sandusky) 91% (6W-13% 7W-57% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Bryan 86% (7W-6% 8W-41% 9W-98% 10W-100% )
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 82% (6W-40% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 69% (4W-1% 5W-60% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 60% (4W-4% 5W-66% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Elida 59% (6W-5% 7W-57% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Independence (Columbus) 21% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-69% )
Clyde 14% (5W-1% 6W-13% 7W-92% )
River Valley (Caledonia) 12% (7W-1% 8W-50% )
Indian Lake (Lewistown) 5% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-87% )

Region 11 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 17.67)
Marlington (Alliance) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
West Holmes (Millersburg) 99% (6W-85% 7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Poland Seminary (Poland) 87% (5W-1% 6W-27% 7W-86% 8W-99% )
Granville 87% (6W-2% 7W-20% 8W-88% 9W-99% )
Maysville (Zanesville) 77% (6W-2% 7W-31% 8W-86% 9W-100% )
Licking Valley (Newark) 73% (6W-6% 7W-64% 8W-99% )
Steubenville 69% (6W-11% 7W-83% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Struthers 62% (5W-6% 6W-44% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 39% (7W-1% 8W-39% 9W-99% )
Philo (Duncan Falls) 29% (7W-5% 8W-85% 9W-100% )
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 25% (4W-45% 5W-99% 6W-100% )
Dover 21% (6W-2% 7W-81% 8W-100% )
Cambridge 9% (6W-1% 7W-17% 8W-98% )
John Glenn (New Concord) 7% (6W-1% 7W-51% 8W-100% )
West Branch (Beloit) 4% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-96% )
Canton South (Canton) 3% (7W-2% 8W-56% 9W-100% )
Carrollton 2% (7W-1% 8W-41% )
New Lexington 2% (6W-1% 7W-2% 8W-88% )

Region 12 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.15)
Circleville 100% (6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 99% (7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Athens (The Plains) 99% (7W-77% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 99% (6W-32% 7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Gallia Academy (Gallipolis) 90% (6W-29% 7W-82% 8W-99% )
Shawnee (Springfield) 58% (5W-3% 6W-30% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 52% (6W-2% 7W-47% 8W-99% )
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 42% (6W-6% 7W-64% 8W-100% )
Goshen 37% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-60% 8W-99% )
Washington (Washington Court House) 32% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-80% 8W-100% )
Mc Clain (Greenfield) 17% (6W-3% 7W-50% 8W-99% )
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 15% (4W-1% 5W-20% 6W-99% )
Kenton Ridge (Springfield) 14% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-80% 8W-100% )
Logan Elm (Circleville) 14% (5W-4% 6W-58% 7W-100% )
Jackson 12% (4W-1% 5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-93% )
Eaton 11% (7W-4% 8W-71% )
Miami Trace (Washington Court House) 3% (6W-19% 7W-100% )
Taft (Cincinnati) 3% (6W-1% 7W-19% )

Region 13 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.60)
Brookfield 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Norwayne (Creston) 99% (7W-66% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Triway (Wooster) 96% (7W-49% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Liberty (Youngstown) 89% (6W-14% 7W-36% 8W-88% 9W-100% )
Hawken (Gates Mills) 81% (6W-1% 7W-30% 8W-91% 9W-100% )
Lakeview (Cortland) 65% (5W-1% 6W-27% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Streetsboro 60% (5W-6% 6W-65% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Manchester (Akron) 57% (5W-1% 6W-39% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Northwestern (West Salem) 38% (7W-3% 8W-84% 9W-100% )
Beachwood 34% (6W-1% 7W-58% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 26% (5W-1% 6W-26% 7W-96% )
Cardinal (Middlefield) 18% (6W-1% 7W-39% 8W-99% )
Tuslaw (Massillon) 17% (6W-4% 7W-68% )
Sandy Valley (Magnolia) 8% (6W-6% 7W-86% 8W-100% )
Black River (Sullivan) 4% (6W-1% 7W-11% )
Edgewood (Ashtabula) 4% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-100% )

Region 14 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 16.15)
Genoa Area (Genoa) 99% (8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 99% (8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 99% (7W-95% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
North Union (Richwood) 99% (8W-64% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Galion 94% (7W-33% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 93% (6W-51% 7W-91% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Kenton 57% (6W-4% 7W-64% 8W-99% )
Oak Harbor 46% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-84% 9W-100% )
Huron 39% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-28% 8W-97% )
Upper Sandusky 29% (6W-1% 7W-17% 8W-79% )
Clearview (Lorain) 24% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-29% 8W-97% )
Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 8% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-98% )
Eastwood (Pemberville) 7% (6W-1% 7W-77% )
Otsego (Tontogany) 2% (6W-1% 7W-16% )

Region 15 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 11.32)
Ironton 100% (5W-100% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
St Clairsville 100% (9W-100% 10W-100% )
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 99% (6W-100% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Minford 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Harrison Central (Cadiz) 99% (6W-77% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Piketon 95% (5W-14% 6W-66% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Martins Ferry 95% (5W-13% 6W-43% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 29% (4W-4% 5W-50% 6W-98% )
Fairland (Proctorville) 26% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-60% )
Zane Trace (Chillicothe) 24% (4W-8% 5W-62% 6W-100% )
Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 10% (4W-1% 5W-28% 6W-99% )
Unioto (Chillicothe) 10% (5W-3% 6W-49% 7W-100% )
Chesapeake 4% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-55% )
Coshocton 2% (4W-14% 5W-100% )

Region 16 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 16.40)
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 100% (9W-100% 10W-100% )
Westfall (Williamsport) 99% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 98% (7W-70% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Milton-Union (West Milton) 94% (7W-20% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 79% (6W-2% 7W-39% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Batavia 69% (8W-13% 9W-88% 10W-100% )
Brookville 64% (6W-3% 7W-42% 8W-94% 9W-100% )
Norwood 50% (6W-1% 7W-17% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Madeira (Cincinnati) 48% (7W-1% 8W-18% 9W-94% )
Shroder (Cincinnati) 38% (7W-3% 8W-42% 9W-99% )
Waynesville 24% (6W-1% 7W-3% 8W-81% )
Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) 16% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-49% 8W-100% )
Blanchester 15% (6W-1% 7W-27% 8W-99% )
Carlisle 3% (8W-6% )

Region 17 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.40)
Kirtland 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 99% (6W-85% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Crestview (Columbiana) 99% (8W-89% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 98% (6W-48% 7W-87% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Columbiana 94% (6W-8% 7W-58% 8W-93% 9W-99% )
Ursuline (Youngstown) 78% (4W-38% 5W-92% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Memorial (Campbell) 35% (4W-1% 5W-4% 6W-30% 7W-93% )
Bellaire 32% (5W-3% 6W-16% 7W-86% 8W-100% )
Barnesville 14% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-81% 8W-100% )
Fort Frye (Beverly) 13% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-84% )
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 8% (6W-1% 7W-20% )
South Range (North Lima) 8% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-91% )
Southern (Salineville) 7% (7W-1% 8W-34% )
Berkshire (Burton) 5% (4W-1% 5W-1% 6W-67% )
United (Hanoverton) 3% (7W-1% 8W-48% )
Independence 3% (6W-8% 7W-75% )

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.87)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 99% (7W-83% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Northwood 99% (8W-69% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 99% (7W-45% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Western Reserve (Collins) 94% (7W-38% 8W-92% 9W-99% )
Columbia (Columbia Station) 83% (6W-1% 7W-18% 8W-85% 9W-99% )
Liberty Center 77% (6W-1% 7W-49% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 70% (7W-1% 8W-55% 9W-99% )
Archbold 53% (6W-1% 7W-12% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Carey 31% (6W-1% 7W-8% 8W-88% )
Jefferson (Delphos) 30% (7W-1% 8W-74% 9W-100% )
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 22% (6W-1% 7W-28% 8W-97% )
Spencerville 20% (7W-1% 8W-78% )
Tinora (Defiance) 14% (8W-1% 9W-18% )
Seneca East (Attica) 2% (7W-1% 8W-44% )
New London 2% (7W-1% 8W-52% )

Region 19 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 12.14)
Wheelersburg 99% (6W-83% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Oak Hill 98% (6W-65% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 97% (6W-79% 7W-89% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Valley (Lucasville) 94% (7W-10% 8W-79% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Loudonville 84% (5W-7% 6W-75% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Wynford (Bucyrus) 81% (6W-39% 7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 57% (5W-6% 6W-39% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
East Knox (Howard) 48% (5W-6% 6W-84% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 33% (6W-1% 7W-22% 8W-99% )
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 21% (5W-2% 6W-71% 7W-100% )
Federal Hocking (Stewart) 20% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-88% 9W-100% )
Fredericktown 20% (5W-3% 6W-55% 7W-99% )
Centerburg 17% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-90% )
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 12% (6W-1% 7W-17% 8W-95% )
Crooksville 6% (4W-1% 5W-5% 6W-73% )
Bucyrus 6% (4W-1% 5W-6% 6W-82% 7W-100% )
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 4% (6W-11% )

Region 20 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.40)
Coldwater 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Covington 100% (9W-100% 10W-100% )
Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) 99% (8W-97% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Dayton Christian (Miamisburg) 98% (7W-59% 8W-72% 9W-98% 10W-99% )
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 98% (8W-48% 9W-96% 10W-100% )
Pleasant (Marion) 81% (7W-7% 8W-79% 9W-100% )
Versailles 46% (6W-2% 7W-63% 8W-99% )
West Jefferson 40% (7W-1% 8W-60% 9W-100% )
Triad (North Lewisburg) 37% (7W-3% 8W-39% 9W-100% )
Madison Plains (London) 35% (6W-4% 7W-35% 8W-96% )
Miami East (Casstown) 27% (6W-1% 7W-15% 8W-94% )
Clark Montessori (Cincinnati) 11% (6W-1% 7W-3% 8W-78% 9W-100% )
Mariemont (Cincinnati) 9% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-88% )
Dixie (New Lebanon) 8% (6W-1% 7W-21% 8W-99% )
Anna 3% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-100% )
Adena (Frankfort) 3% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-99% )
Huntington (Chillicothe) 3% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-93% )
Paint Valley (Bainbridge) 2% (6W-3% 7W-72% )

Region 21 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.98)
Mogadore 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Malvern 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Shadyside 99% (7W-65% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
John F Kennedy (Warren) 98% (5W-63% 6W-84% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 98% (5W-75% 6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Fairport Harding (Fairport Harbor) 95% (4W-33% 5W-73% 6W-96% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Catholic Central (Steubenville) 87% (4W-12% 5W-56% 6W-93% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 60% (6W-16% 7W-89% 8W-100% )
Tuscarawas Central Catholic (New Philadelphia) 23% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-53% 8W-99% )
Leetonia 21% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-70% 8W-99% )
East Canton 6% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-57% 7W-100% )
Wellsville 6% (5W-2% 6W-48% 7W-100% )
Mineral Ridge 4% (5W-1% 6W-13% 7W-81% )

Region 22 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 9.00)
Leipsic 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Mc Comb 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 99% (5W-100% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Arlington 99% (6W-91% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Delphos St John’s 94% (4W-38% 5W-89% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 84% (5W-7% 6W-40% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Calvert (Tiffin) 83% (4W-23% 5W-87% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
St Paul (Norwalk) 62% (4W-1% 5W-19% 6W-79% 7W-99% )
Toledo Christian (Toledo) 23% (5W-1% 6W-36% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Edon 22% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-62% )
Crestview (Convoy) 13% (4W-1% 5W-12% 6W-90% 7W-100% )
Ayersville (Defiance) 11% (4W-1% 5W-5% 6W-77% 7W-100% )
Mohawk (Sycamore) 2% (4W-1% 5W-15% 6W-97% )
Monroeville 2% (4W-1% 5W-58% )

Region 23 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.40)
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 100% (5W-100% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Newark Catholic (Newark) 99% (5W-92% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Danville 99% (6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Trimble (Glouster) 99% (7W-92% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) 99% (6W-89% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Notre Dame (Portsmouth) 90% (6W-18% 7W-77% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 77% (5W-1% 6W-47% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
River (Hannibal) 55% (5W-6% 6W-29% 7W-78% )
Eastern (Reedsville) 39% (5W-1% 6W-21% 7W-95% 8W-100% )
Fairfield Christian Academy (Lancaster) 24% (6W-2% 7W-31% 8W-86% )
Plymouth 8% (5W-2% 6W-28% 7W-96% )
Sciotoville Community (Portsmouth) 4% (5W-1% 6W-30% 7W-100% )

Region 24 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.48)
Ada 99% (7W-92% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
St Henry 99% (5W-92% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 99% (5W-70% 6W-86% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Bradford 99% (6W-50% 7W-92% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Minster 96% (5W-57% 6W-90% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Fort Loramie 95% (6W-38% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 58% (4W-19% 5W-73% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
Southeastern Local (South Charleston) 53% (5W-4% 6W-28% 7W-86% 8W-100% )
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 37% (5W-1% 6W-26% 7W-97% )
Jefferson Township (Dayton) 24% (5W-10% 6W-74% )
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 22% (4W-1% 5W-9% 6W-91% )
Oyler (Cincinnati) 15% (4W-50% 5W-95%)

_______________________________________________________________________

We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *