The Fantastic 50: Week 6 Playoff Odds

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Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

Based on Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 formula, here’s a look at the 2012 postseason odds with five games to go…


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This Week’s Fantastic 50

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This Week’s
Predictions

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These numbers are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the
regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  For those
interested in more details about the methodology and results, they were
published here.  If you can’t access that site, but would like a copy of
the paper, then send me an e-mail.

In parenthesis are conditional Harbin point values and conditional
playoff probabilities, based on how many games a team wins.  For
example, 7W-18.9H-63% would mean that if that team wins exactly 7 games,
they would have an estimated 18.9 Harbin points and a 63% chance of
earning a berth.

This Week’s
Playoff Odds

Region 1 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 23.70)
St Edward (Lakewood) 98% (6W-23% 7W-86% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 98% (7W-20% 8W-85% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
South (Willoughby) 97% (8W-42% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 97% (7W-48% 8W-94% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
North Royalton 91% (7W-8% 8W-54% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Mentor 86% (7W-18% 8W-89% 9W-100% )
Cleveland Heights 74% (7W-1% 8W-11% 9W-73% 10W-100% )
Warren G Harding (Warren) 57% (7W-5% 8W-56% 9W-100% )
Shaker Heights 28% (7W-1% 8W-4% 9W-55% )
Mayfield 16% (6W-2% 7W-63% 8W-100% )
Boardman (Youngstown) 16% (6W-1% 7W-21% 8W-97% )
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 14% (8W-3% 9W-99% )
North Olmsted 13% (6W-1% 7W-1% 8W-7% 9W-58% )
Solon 9% (6W-1% 7W-19% 8W-99% )
Midpark (Middleburg Heights) 2% (8W-2% 9W-44% )
Euclid 2% (7W-2% 8W-98% )

Region 2 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 21.60)
Avon Lake 99% (6W-53% 7W-94% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 96% (5W-24% 6W-85% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Whitmer (Toledo) 96% (7W-19% 8W-86% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 95% (5W-14% 6W-84% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Hudson 88% (6W-15% 7W-70% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Glenoak (Canton) 88% (5W-5% 6W-24% 7W-85% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Brunswick 85% (6W-13% 7W-61% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Nordonia (Macedonia) 63% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-55% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Findlay 33% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-44% 9W-99% )
Hoover (North Canton) 15% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-39% 8W-96% )
Wadsworth 9% (6W-2% 7W-46% 8W-99% )
Green 9% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-31% 8W-93% )
Elyria 8% (6W-1% 7W-15% 8W-91% )
Anthony Wayne (Whitehouse) 8% (6W-1% 7W-16% 8W-88% )
Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 5% (6W-1% 7W-36% )

Region 3 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 22.45)
Olentangy (Lewis Center) 99% (7W-87% 8W-97% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 99% (8W-62% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 86% (7W-12% 8W-85% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Westerville South (Westerville) 85% (7W-4% 8W-74% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 82% (7W-4% 8W-49% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Lincoln (Gahanna) 72% (7W-7% 8W-68% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 71% (5W-2% 6W-20% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
St Charles (Columbus) 69% (6W-6% 7W-44% 8W-92% 9W-99% )
Dublin Scioto (Dublin) 51% (6W-2% 7W-34% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Olentangy Liberty (Powell) 40% (7W-2% 8W-46% 9W-100% )
Westerville Central (Westerville) 34% (6W-1% 7W-18% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Reynoldsburg 5% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-98% )
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 4% (7W-1% 8W-28% )

Region 4 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 23.45)
Colerain (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-78% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Springboro 98% (7W-7% 8W-70% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Wayne (Huber Heights) 97% (6W-21% 7W-78% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Lakota West (West Chester) 87% (7W-12% 8W-71% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Lebanon 58% (7W-4% 8W-45% 9W-99% )
Elder (Cincinnati) 58% (5W-6% 6W-84% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Lakota East (Liberty Township) 56% (6W-5% 7W-51% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 55% (4W-1% 5W-9% 6W-64% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Sycamore (Cincinnati) 49% (6W-1% 7W-9% 8W-58% 9W-99% )
Loveland 39% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-69% 9W-100% )
Centerville 35% (6W-3% 7W-44% 8W-99% )
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 27% (5W-1% 6W-46% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Withrow (Cincinnati) 24% (7W-1% 8W-58% )
La Salle (Cincinnati) 12% (6W-1% 7W-7% 8W-74% 9W-99% )
Mason 2% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-95% )

Region 5 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.10)
Chardon 99% (7W-93% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Tallmadge 96% (5W-19% 6W-94% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
New Philadelphia 91% (7W-23% 8W-75% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Roosevelt (Kent) 88% (6W-8% 7W-56% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 85% (5W-1% 6W-29% 7W-94% 8W-100% )
Copley 79% (5W-12% 6W-50% 7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Louisville 76% (5W-2% 6W-14% 7W-65% 8W-99% )
Aurora 69% (7W-9% 8W-74% 9W-99% )
Howland (Warren) 61% (6W-6% 7W-57% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Madison 30% (6W-4% 7W-45% 8W-100% )
West Geauga (Chesterland) 14% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-95% 8W-100% )
Lake (Uniontown) 6% (4W-1% 5W-40% 6W-98% )
Ellet (Akron) 2% (7W-1% 8W-23% )

Region 6 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.84)
Central Catholic (Toledo) 99% (7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Midview (Grafton) 99% (7W-60% 8W-96% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Columbian (Tiffin) 97% (7W-36% 8W-80% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Perrysburg 86% (6W-10% 7W-81% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Avon 80% (6W-3% 7W-28% 8W-90% 9W-100% )
Madison Comprehensive (Mansfield) 56% (6W-2% 7W-29% 8W-91% 9W-100% )
Norwalk 51% (6W-1% 7W-9% 8W-47% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Westlake 51% (6W-3% 7W-30% 8W-93% 9W-100% )
Rogers (Toledo) 47% (6W-1% 7W-22% 8W-84% )
Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) 45% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-69% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Lexington 32% (6W-2% 7W-45% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Highland (Medina) 30% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-68% 8W-99% )
Maumee 20% (6W-3% 7W-74% 8W-100% )
Clay (Oregon) 4% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-33% 8W-100% )

Region 7 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.40)
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 99% (7W-82% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Zanesville 99% (7W-78% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Licking Heights (Pataskala) 99% (8W-61% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 97% (6W-11% 7W-76% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
New Albany 82% (5W-2% 6W-27% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Beechcroft (Columbus) 82% (6W-11% 7W-93% 8W-100% )
Brookhaven (Columbus) 56% (6W-1% 7W-38% 8W-99% )
Teays Valley (Ashville) 41% (5W-1% 6W-29% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Hamilton Township (Columbus) 30% (6W-1% 7W-3% 8W-44% 9W-98% )
Mount Vernon 25% (6W-3% 7W-65% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Ashland 24% (6W-3% 7W-55% 8W-99% )
Walnut Ridge (Columbus) 22% (6W-2% 7W-76% 8W-100% )
Canal Winchester 17% (6W-1% 7W-43% 8W-99% )
Mifflin (Columbus) 10% (7W-1% 8W-38% 9W-100% )
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 8% (6W-1% 7W-12% 8W-97% )
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 3% (6W-1% 7W-7% 8W-93% )

Region 8 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.90)
Turpin (Cincinnati) 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 99% (5W-87% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 98% (7W-15% 8W-81% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Northwest (Cincinnati) 96% (6W-25% 7W-30% 8W-91% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 90% (6W-21% 7W-73% 8W-99% )
Franklin 88% (6W-14% 7W-61% 8W-97% 9W-100% )
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 85% (7W-13% 8W-81% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Western Brown (Mount Orab) 60% (7W-1% 8W-26% 9W-88% 10W-100% )
Celina 45% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-50% 9W-99% )
Edgewood (Trenton) 18% (6W-1% 7W-9% 8W-78% 9W-100% )
Ross (Hamilton) 5% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-65% )
Amelia (Batavia) 3% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-72% )
Harrison 3% (5W-1% 6W-34% 7W-100% )
Wilmington 2% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-63% )
Anderson (Cincinnati) 2% (5W-2% 6W-58% 7W-100% )
Wapakoneta 2% (7W-1% 8W-17% )

Region 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.97)
Chagrin Falls 99% (6W-44% 7W-93% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Niles Mc Kinley (Niles) 98% (5W-7% 6W-33% 7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Ravenna 98% (5W-52% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Woodridge (Peninsula) 93% (5W-4% 6W-31% 7W-95% 8W-100% )
John Hay (Cleveland) 63% (6W-6% 7W-62% 8W-99% )
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 57% (6W-4% 7W-25% 8W-94% 9W-100% )
Field (Mogadore) 56% (4W-1% 5W-22% 6W-94% 7W-100% )
Buchtel (Akron) 55% (5W-1% 6W-65% 7W-99% )
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 45% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-37% 7W-98% )
Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) 44% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-64% 8W-100% )
Benedictine (Cleveland) 38% (4W-1% 5W-5% 6W-41% 7W-94% 8W-100% )
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 25% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-67% 8W-99% )
Rocky River 8% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-99% )
Norton 6% (6W-1% 7W-59% 8W-100% )
Southeast (Ravenna) 5% (6W-1% 7W-16% 8W-100% )
Hubbard 5% (6W-1% 7W-24% 8W-98% )
Crestwood (Mantua) 3% (4W-1% 5W-23% 6W-99% )

Region 10 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.22)
Bellevue 99% (6W-75% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Napoleon 99% (5W-27% 6W-93% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Urbana 99% (7W-68% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Elida 95% (6W-24% 7W-79% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Bryan 88% (7W-15% 8W-63% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 82% (5W-3% 6W-40% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 79% (4W-10% 5W-77% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Perkins (Sandusky) 57% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-43% 8W-94% 9W-99% )
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 43% (4W-2% 5W-68% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Independence (Columbus) 24% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-72% )
Clyde 16% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-85% )
River Valley (Caledonia) 9% (6W-1% 7W-2% 8W-53% )
East (Columbus) 4% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-7% 8W-86% )
Indian Lake (Lewistown) 3% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-83% )

Region 11 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 17.50)
Marlington (Alliance) 99% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
West Holmes (Millersburg) 99% (6W-94% 7W-98% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Struthers 93% (5W-18% 6W-73% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Granville 90% (6W-2% 7W-28% 8W-88% 9W-99% )
Licking Valley (Newark) 81% (6W-10% 7W-73% 8W-99% )
Steubenville 68% (5W-2% 6W-26% 7W-79% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Poland Seminary (Poland) 47% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-77% 8W-100% )
Maysville (Zanesville) 44% (6W-1% 7W-22% 8W-79% 9W-99% )
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 38% (7W-1% 8W-38% 9W-99% )
Philo (Duncan Falls) 27% (6W-1% 7W-12% 8W-92% 9W-100% )
Cambridge 23% (6W-2% 7W-46% 8W-100% )
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 23% (4W-46% 5W-100% 6W-100% )
Sheridan (Thornville) 18% (7W-11% 8W-92% 9W-100% )
Claymont (Uhrichsville) 15% (7W-1% 8W-16% 9W-92% )
Dover 13% (6W-2% 7W-87% 8W-100% )
Carrollton 7% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-79% 9W-100% )
Canton South (Canton) 3% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-64% 9W-100% )
Minerva 3% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-89% )
John Glenn (New Concord) 3% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-78% )
West Branch (Beloit) 2% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-98% )
New Lexington 2% (6W-1% 7W-13% 8W-92% )

Region 12 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.86)
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 99% (7W-91% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Circleville 99% (5W-51% 6W-94% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Athens (The Plains) 97% (6W-24% 7W-55% 8W-95% 9W-99% )
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 97% (6W-29% 7W-93% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Gallia Academy (Gallipolis) 76% (5W-1% 6W-20% 7W-76% 8W-99% )
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 64% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-70% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Goshen 55% (6W-3% 7W-49% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 43% (6W-1% 7W-29% 8W-98% )
Shawnee (Springfield) 36% (5W-1% 6W-26% 7W-93% 8W-100% )
Taft (Cincinnati) 28% (6W-1% 7W-33% 8W-96% )
Kenton Ridge (Springfield) 21% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-52% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Dunbar (Dayton) 21% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-93% 8W-100% )
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 15% (5W-9% 6W-90% 7W-100% )
Mc Clain (Greenfield) 10% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-40% 8W-95% )
Eaton 9% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-63% )
Logan Elm (Circleville) 8% (5W-3% 6W-42% 7W-99% )
Washington (Washington Court House) 8% (6W-2% 7W-49% 8W-100% )
New Richmond 6% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-64% )
Jackson 6% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-75% )

Region 13 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.95)
Brookfield 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Norwayne (Creston) 99% (7W-85% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Hawken (Gates Mills) 90% (6W-5% 7W-42% 8W-95% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Triway (Wooster) 81% (6W-2% 7W-50% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Lakeview (Cortland) 72% (5W-9% 6W-56% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Streetsboro 68% (5W-3% 6W-51% 7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Liberty (Youngstown) 61% (6W-5% 7W-32% 8W-92% 9W-100% )
Manchester (Akron) 56% (5W-3% 6W-61% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Sandy Valley (Magnolia) 44% (5W-1% 6W-25% 7W-92% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Northwestern (West Salem) 33% (6W-1% 7W-13% 8W-94% 9W-100% )
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 31% (4W-1% 5W-4% 6W-45% 7W-98% )
Beachwood 20% (6W-1% 7W-51% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Tuslaw (Massillon) 19% (5W-1% 6W-18% 7W-87% )
Cardinal (Middlefield) 10% (6W-2% 7W-34% 8W-99% )
Black River (Sullivan) 7% (6W-1% 7W-30% )
Edgewood (Ashtabula) 5% (5W-1% 6W-36% )

Region 14 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.55)
Genoa Area (Genoa) 99% (8W-97% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
North Union (Richwood) 99% (8W-78% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 99% (7W-69% 8W-96% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 99% (6W-49% 7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 93% (5W-32% 6W-76% 7W-94% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Huron 84% (5W-2% 6W-14% 7W-63% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Galion 65% (6W-1% 7W-20% 8W-89% 9W-100% )
Oak Harbor 39% (6W-1% 7W-19% 8W-88% 9W-100% )
Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 37% (4W-1% 5W-10% 6W-51% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Clearview (Lorain) 21% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-36% 8W-97% )
Kenton 19% (6W-3% 7W-64% 8W-100% )
Upper Sandusky 16% (6W-2% 7W-17% 8W-88% )
Otsego (Tontogany) 10% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-39% 8W-100% )
Eastwood (Pemberville) 6% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-89% )
Edison (Milan) 4% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-37% 8W-99% )
Northwestern (Springfield) 3% (6W-1% 7W-8% 8W-83% )
Clear Fork (Bellville) 2% (4W-1% 5W-7% 6W-61% )

Region 15 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 12.45)
Ironton 100% (5W-100% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
St Clairsville 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 99% (6W-89% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Minford 99% (6W-83% 7W-99% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Harrison Central (Cadiz) 99% (6W-38% 7W-84% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Martins Ferry 89% (5W-2% 6W-24% 7W-92% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Piketon 73% (5W-2% 6W-29% 7W-89% 8W-99% )
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 42% (4W-5% 5W-52% 6W-98% 7W-100% )
Zane Trace (Chillicothe) 26% (4W-2% 5W-39% 6W-98% 7W-100% )
Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 24% (4W-1% 5W-19% 6W-87% 7W-100% )
Unioto (Chillicothe) 21% (5W-1% 6W-25% 7W-86% 8W-100% )
Fairland (Proctorville) 12% (6W-2% 7W-29% )
Meadowbrook (Byesville) 4% (5W-1% 6W-20% 7W-83% 8W-100% )
Coshocton 2% (4W-7% 5W-87% )
Heath 2% (5W-1% 6W-39% 7W-100% )
Bloom-Carroll (Carroll) 2% (4W-1% 5W-39% 6W-95% )
Wellston 2% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-89% )

Region 16 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 16.08)
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 100% (9W-100% 10W-100% )
Westfall (Williamsport) 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-81% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Batavia 83% (7W-2% 8W-33% 9W-91% 10W-100% )
Brookville 81% (5W-2% 6W-26% 7W-80% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Milton-Union (West Milton) 70% (7W-15% 8W-92% 9W-99% )
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 57% (6W-2% 7W-44% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Madeira (Cincinnati) 54% (7W-5% 8W-38% 9W-98% )
Norwood 44% (6W-1% 7W-36% 8W-97% 9W-100% )
Carlisle 41% (7W-2% 8W-48% 9W-99% )
Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) 27% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-68% 8W-100% )
Waynesville 13% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-81% )
Shroder (Cincinnati) 13% (7W-1% 8W-39% 9W-100% )
Badin (Hamilton) 7% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-44% 8W-99% )
Blanchester 5% (6W-1% 7W-42% 8W-100% )
Valley View (Germantown) 3% (5W-3% 6W-80% 7W-100% )
Greeneview (Jamestown) 2% (7W-1% 8W-8% 9W-96% )

Region 17 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.72)
Kirtland 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 99% (7W-91% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Crestview (Columbiana) 99% (7W-33% 8W-80% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 98% (6W-44% 7W-93% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 95% (6W-31% 7W-74% 8W-97% 9W-100% )
Ursuline (Youngstown) 78% (4W-16% 5W-74% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Memorial (Campbell) 66% (5W-4% 6W-31% 7W-91% 8W-100% )
Columbiana 52% (6W-1% 7W-9% 8W-56% 9W-98% )
Barnesville 38% (6W-1% 7W-24% 8W-88% 9W-99% )
Southern (Salineville) 24% (6W-1% 7W-1% 8W-26% 9W-94% )
Bellaire 21% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-66% 8W-100% )
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 10% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-73% )
South Range (North Lima) 6% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-75% )
Independence 5% (6W-1% 7W-43% 8W-99% )
Fort Frye (Beverly) 5% (6W-1% 7W-3% 8W-50% )

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.60)
Northwood 99% (9W-99% 10W-100% )
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 99% (7W-74% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 99% (7W-75% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Columbia (Columbia Station) 83% (6W-2% 7W-24% 8W-92% 9W-100% )
Liberty Center 82% (6W-2% 7W-58% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Western Reserve (Collins) 67% (6W-1% 7W-11% 8W-80% 9W-99% )
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 66% (7W-2% 8W-61% 9W-99% )
Archbold 63% (6W-2% 7W-36% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 32% (6W-1% 7W-60% 8W-99% )
Jefferson (Delphos) 31% (7W-4% 8W-81% 9W-100% )
Tinora (Defiance) 27% (8W-1% 9W-42% )
Spencerville 19% (7W-2% 8W-71% 9W-100% )
Carey 19% (6W-1% 7W-19% 8W-95% )
Hicksville 3% (7W-5% )
Fairview (Sherwood) 2% (7W-1% 8W-12% )

Region 19 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 12.60)
Wheelersburg 99% (6W-82% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Wynford (Bucyrus) 99% (6W-31% 7W-93% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Oak Hill 96% (5W-9% 6W-55% 7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Valley (Lucasville) 95% (7W-24% 8W-85% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 95% (6W-44% 7W-76% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Loudonville 87% (4W-1% 5W-23% 6W-84% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
East Knox (Howard) 38% (4W-1% 5W-8% 6W-76% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Centerburg 35% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-87% 8W-100% )
Fredericktown 33% (4W-1% 5W-8% 6W-67% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 26% (5W-2% 6W-29% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Crooksville 24% (4W-1% 5W-7% 6W-66% 7W-99% )
Federal Hocking (Stewart) 21% (6W-1% 7W-15% 8W-85% 9W-100% )
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 18% (6W-1% 7W-11% 8W-95% )
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 15% (6W-1% 7W-19% 8W-93% )
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 7% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-61% 7W-100% )
Bucyrus 3% (4W-1% 5W-12% 6W-80% )
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 3% (5W-1% 6W-9% )
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 2% (5W-2% 6W-55% )

Region 20 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.86)
Coldwater 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Covington 99% (8W-61% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 96% (7W-6% 8W-40% 9W-93% 10W-100% )
Dayton Christian (Miamisburg) 95% (7W-17% 8W-64% 9W-97% 10W-100% )
Pleasant (Marion) 86% (7W-15% 8W-79% 9W-100% )
Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) 78% (7W-5% 8W-41% 9W-98% 10W-100% )
Madison Plains (London) 69% (6W-5% 7W-46% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Dixie (New Lebanon) 36% (6W-1% 7W-36% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
West Jefferson 32% (7W-1% 8W-48% 9W-99% )
Versailles 30% (6W-1% 7W-34% 8W-98% )
Miami East (Casstown) 26% (6W-1% 7W-11% 8W-89% 9W-100% )
Triad (North Lewisburg) 17% (7W-2% 8W-35% 9W-100% )
Anna 14% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-64% 8W-100% )
Clark Montessori (Cincinnati) 9% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-68% 9W-100% )
Mariemont (Cincinnati) 5% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-72% )
National Trail (New Paris) 2% (7W-1% 8W-42% 9W-100% )
Adena (Frankfort) 2% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-98% )
Paint Valley (Bainbridge) 2% (6W-3% 7W-59% )

Region 21 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.75)
Mogadore 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Malvern 100% (6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Shadyside 99% (7W-81% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
John F Kennedy (Warren) 99% (5W-68% 6W-93% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Fairport Harding (Fairport Harbor) 99% (5W-67% 6W-95% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 98% (5W-75% 6W-97% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Catholic Central (Steubenville) 67% (4W-6% 5W-38% 6W-86% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 59% (5W-3% 6W-31% 7W-92% 8W-99% )
East Canton 21% (4W-1% 5W-7% 6W-61% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Leetonia 14% (5W-2% 6W-21% 7W-78% 8W-97% )
Tuscarawas Central Catholic (New Philadelphia) 14% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-68% 8W-100% )
Conotton Valley (Bowerston) 6% (5W-1% 6W-21% 7W-87% )
Mineral Ridge 5% (5W-2% 6W-27% 7W-91% )
Mc Donald 4% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-16% 7W-76% )
Newbury 4% (5W-1% 6W-19% 7W-72% )
Strasburg-Franklin (Strasburg) 3% (4W-2% 5W-35% 6W-93% )
Wellsville 3% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-44% 7W-100% )
Windham 2% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-77% )

Region 22 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 9.35)
Leipsic 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Mc Comb 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Delphos St John’s 99% (4W-53% 5W-94% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 99% (5W-67% 6W-95% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Calvert (Tiffin) 93% (4W-30% 5W-89% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
St Paul (Norwalk) 76% (4W-1% 5W-23% 6W-82% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Edon 70% (6W-11% 7W-73% 8W-99% )
Arlington 63% (5W-4% 6W-28% 7W-96% 8W-100% )
Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 35% (5W-1% 6W-24% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Crestview (Convoy) 27% (4W-1% 5W-12% 6W-79% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Toledo Christian (Toledo) 16% (5W-1% 6W-30% 7W-99% )
Monroeville 7% (4W-1% 5W-29% 6W-96% )
Mohawk (Sycamore) 4% (4W-1% 5W-19% 6W-93% 7W-100% )
Ayersville (Defiance) 4% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-57% 7W-100% )
Arcadia 2% (5W-1% 6W-21% 7W-96% )

Region 23 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.88)
Trimble (Glouster) 99% (7W-82% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 99% (5W-78% 6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Newark Catholic (Newark) 99% (5W-80% 6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) 99% (6W-62% 7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Danville 99% (5W-66% 6W-95% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Notre Dame (Portsmouth) 78% (6W-2% 7W-46% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Harvest Preparatory (Canal Winchester) 73% (5W-4% 6W-57% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 62% (5W-1% 6W-25% 7W-91% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
River (Hannibal) 37% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-52% 8W-99% )
Eastern (Reedsville) 22% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-75% 8W-100% )
Fairfield Christian Academy (Lancaster) 17% (6W-1% 7W-18% 8W-76% )
Sciotoville Community (Portsmouth) 5% (5W-1% 6W-21% 7W-96% )
Plymouth 4% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-25% 7W-91% )
Grove City Christian (Grove City) 2% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-52% )

Region 24 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.29)
Ada 99% (7W-83% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
St Henry 99% (5W-75% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 89% (4W-8% 5W-24% 6W-90% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Fort Loramie 86% (5W-12% 6W-49% 7W-92% 8W-100% )
Bradford 84% (5W-2% 6W-25% 7W-78% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 80% (4W-15% 5W-70% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Southeastern Local (South Charleston) 65% (4W-1% 5W-11% 6W-47% 7W-94% 8W-100% )
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 61% (4W-1% 5W-4% 6W-45% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Minster 57% (4W-1% 5W-10% 6W-82% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Jefferson Township (Dayton) 43% (4W-1% 5W-22% 6W-88% 7W-100% )
Oyler (Cincinnati) 16% (4W-60% 5W-96% )
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 11% (4W-1% 5W-19% 6W-93% )
New Miami (Hamilton) 4% (5W-1% 6W-19% 7W-98% )
Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) 3% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-38% 7W-100% )

_______________________________________________________________________

We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

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