The Fantastic 50: Week 5 Playoff Odds

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Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

Based on Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 formula, here’s a look at the 2012 postseason odds – Yeah, we know…There are still six games to go in the regular season.


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This Week’s Fantastic 50

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This Week’s
Predictions

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These numbers are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the
regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  For those
interested in more details about the methodology and results, they were
published here.  If you can’t access that site, but would like a copy of
the paper, then send me an e-mail.

In parenthesis are conditional Harbin point values and conditional
playoff probabilities, based on how many games a team wins.  For
example, 7W-18.9H-63% would mean that if that team wins exactly 7 games,
they would have an estimated 18.9 Harbin points and a 63% chance of
earning a berth.

This Week’s
Playoff Odds

Region 1 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 23.39)
South (Willoughby) 97% (7W-8% 8W-43% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
St Edward (Lakewood) 95% (6W-13% 7W-85% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 95% (6W-20% 7W-62% 8W-96% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Mentor 91% (6W-4% 7W-35% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 90% (7W-12% 8W-74% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
North Royalton 86% (7W-11% 8W-70% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Warren G Harding (Warren) 73% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-78% 9W-100% )
Cleveland Heights 56% (8W-6% 9W-64% 10W-99% )
Boardman (Youngstown) 34% (6W-1% 7W-31% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Shaker Heights 26% (7W-1% 8W-11% 9W-58% )
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 18% (8W-7% 9W-99% )
Mayfield 13% (6W-5% 7W-60% 8W-99% )
Solon 10% (6W-1% 7W-28% 8W-99% )
Midpark (Middleburg Heights) 9% (7W-1% 8W-8% 9W-63% 10W-100% )
North Olmsted 5% (7W-1% 8W-11% 9W-70% )
Euclid 3% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-95% )

Region 2 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 22.35)
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 94% (5W-17% 6W-81% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Whitmer (Toledo) 90% (7W-15% 8W-74% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Avon Lake 85% (6W-9% 7W-54% 8W-97% 9W-100% )
Findlay 84% (6W-4% 7W-25% 8W-79% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Hudson 74% (6W-7% 7W-54% 8W-97% 9W-100% )
Brunswick 72% (6W-7% 7W-50% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 65% (5W-2% 6W-38% 7W-91% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Glenoak (Canton) 60% (6W-4% 7W-42% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Nordonia (Macedonia) 52% (6W-4% 7W-51% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Hoover (North Canton) 35% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-62% 9W-99% )
Anthony Wayne (Whitehouse) 29% (6W-1% 7W-12% 8W-84% 9W-100% )
Green 24% (6W-1% 7W-40% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Elyria 24% (6W-2% 7W-28% 8W-92% 9W-100% )
Wadsworth 6% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-40% 8W-99% )
Cuyahoga Falls 2% (6W-5% 7W-57% 8W-100% )
Jackson (Massillon) 2% (5W-3% 6W-30% 7W-89% )
Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 2% (6W-1% 7W-20% )
Twinsburg 2% (6W-1% 7W-18% 8W-95% )

Region 3 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 22.15)
Olentangy (Lewis Center) 99% (7W-61% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 98% (8W-55% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 86% (6W-1% 7W-30% 8W-92% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Westerville South (Westerville) 83% (7W-11% 8W-83% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 82% (7W-11% 8W-69% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Lincoln (Gahanna) 78% (6W-2% 7W-13% 8W-74% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 68% (5W-1% 6W-30% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
St Charles (Columbus) 63% (5W-6% 6W-40% 7W-90% 8W-99% )
Dublin Scioto (Dublin) 52% (6W-3% 7W-41% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Olentangy Liberty (Powell) 33% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-68% 9W-100% )
Westerville Central (Westerville) 26% (6W-2% 7W-32% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Reynoldsburg 9% (6W-1% 7W-9% 8W-93% 9W-100% )
Troy 7% (6W-1% 7W-8% 8W-78% )
Upper Arlington (Columbus) 4% (6W-1% 7W-9% 8W-100% )
Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) 4% (6W-1% 7W-2% 8W-64% )
Bradley (Hilliard) 3% (6W-1% 7W-8% 8W-90% 9W-100% )
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 3% (7W-1% 8W-22% )

Region 4 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 22.60)
Colerain (Cincinnati) 99% (6W-11% 7W-62% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Wayne (Huber Heights) 98% (6W-46% 7W-89% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Springboro 98% (7W-25% 8W-76% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 84% (5W-8% 6W-60% 7W-96% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Sycamore (Cincinnati) 83% (6W-6% 7W-33% 8W-86% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Lakota West (West Chester) 81% (7W-20% 8W-72% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Lebanon 51% (6W-1% 7W-12% 8W-54% 9W-99% )
Centerville 44% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-71% 8W-99% )
Elder (Cincinnati) 40% (4W-1% 5W-17% 6W-91% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Withrow (Cincinnati) 33% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-78% )
Lakota East (Liberty Township) 28% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-69% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Loveland 22% (6W-1% 7W-8% 8W-65% 9W-99% )
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 20% (5W-4% 6W-63% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Middletown 6% (6W-1% 7W-34% 8W-99% )
La Salle (Cincinnati) 5% (6W-2% 7W-31% 8W-91% 9W-100% )
Mason 4% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-34% 8W-98% )
Fairfield 2% (5W-4% 6W-65% 7W-100% )

Region 5 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 17.00)
Chardon 99% (6W-37% 7W-87% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Tallmadge 95% (4W-6% 5W-53% 6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Aurora 94% (6W-7% 7W-50% 8W-97% 9W-100% )
Howland (Warren) 87% (4W-1% 5W-21% 6W-70% 7W-97% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
New Philadelphia 84% (6W-9% 7W-40% 8W-82% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Roosevelt (Kent) 83% (5W-1% 6W-26% 7W-84% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Louisville 78% (5W-3% 6W-33% 7W-87% 8W-99% )
Madison 52% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-69% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Copley 42% (4W-1% 5W-11% 6W-57% 7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 24% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-88% 8W-100% )
Lake (Uniontown) 21% (4W-7% 5W-72% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
West Geauga (Chesterland) 15% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-32% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Garfield (Akron) 14% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-63% 8W-100% )
Canfield 4% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-86% 8W-100% )
Ellet (Akron) 4% (6W-1% 7W-3% 8W-46% )
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 2% (4W-1% 5W-14% 6W-93% )

Region 6 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.45)
Midview (Grafton) 98% (7W-39% 8W-88% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Columbian (Tiffin) 96% (6W-8% 7W-22% 8W-79% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Central Catholic (Toledo) 93% (6W-21% 7W-77% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Westlake 82% (6W-10% 7W-57% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Highland (Medina) 62% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-71% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Norwalk 59% (6W-1% 7W-13% 8W-55% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Avon 50% (6W-1% 7W-11% 8W-71% 9W-100% )
Maumee 49% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-65% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Madison Comprehensive (Mansfield) 45% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-47% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Rogers (Toledo) 44% (6W-1% 7W-29% 8W-92% )
Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) 39% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-72% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Lexington 35% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-79% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Perrysburg 30% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-71% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Cloverleaf (Lodi) 6% (6W-2% 7W-27% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Maple Heights 4% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-26% 8W-100% )
Berea 3% (4W-1% 5W-6% 6W-59% 7W-100% )
Shaw (East Cleveland) 2% (6W-1% 7W-41% 8W-100% )

Region 7 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 19.20)
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 99% (7W-72% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Zanesville 98% (7W-39% 8W-95% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Licking Heights (Pataskala) 94% (8W-35% 9W-95% 10W-100% )
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 93% (6W-1% 7W-55% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
New Albany 82% (5W-1% 6W-28% 7W-92% 8W-100% )
Hamilton Township (Columbus) 79% (7W-7% 8W-57% 9W-98% 10W-100% )
Beechcroft (Columbus) 77% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-86% 8W-100% )
Ashland 61% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-67% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Brookhaven (Columbus) 46% (6W-1% 7W-27% 8W-99% )
Teays Valley (Ashville) 20% (5W-1% 6W-19% 7W-86% 8W-100% )
Walnut Ridge (Columbus) 19% (6W-1% 7W-56% 8W-100% )
Canal Winchester 8% (6W-1% 7W-35% 8W-99% )
Mifflin (Columbus) 6% (7W-1% 8W-34% 9W-100% )
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 6% (6W-1% 7W-13% 8W-91% )
Mount Vernon 5% (6W-1% 7W-30% 8W-99% )
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 3% (6W-1% 7W-12% 8W-88% )
Wooster 2% (5W-1% 6W-26% 7W-93% )

Region 8 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 19.25)
Turpin (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-97% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 98% (4W-15% 5W-48% 6W-95% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 97% (7W-15% 8W-79% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 85% (6W-13% 7W-64% 8W-99% )
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 83% (7W-15% 8W-74% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Franklin 79% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-60% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Edgewood (Trenton) 75% (6W-2% 7W-20% 8W-73% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Western Brown (Mount Orab) 72% (7W-3% 8W-25% 9W-85% 10W-99% )
Northwest (Cincinnati) 69% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-61% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Celina 26% (6W-1% 7W-2% 8W-35% 9W-97% )
Wilmington 7% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-42% 9W-100% )
Piqua 2% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-59% )

Region 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.83)
Chagrin Falls 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Ravenna 98% (4W-3% 5W-64% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Niles Mc Kinley (Niles) 92% (5W-1% 6W-34% 7W-88% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Woodridge (Peninsula) 89% (5W-7% 6W-34% 7W-89% 8W-99% )
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 75% (6W-12% 7W-43% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Field (Mogadore) 71% (4W-1% 5W-33% 6W-97% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
John Hay (Cleveland) 55% (6W-5% 7W-57% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) 38% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-74% 8W-100% )
Buchtel (Akron) 32% (5W-1% 6W-67% 7W-100% )
Benedictine (Cleveland) 26% (5W-5% 6W-37% 7W-91% 8W-100% )
Hubbard 23% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-38% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Jefferson Area (Jefferson) 22% (6W-1% 7W-3% 8W-33% 9W-96% )
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 22% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-71% 8W-99% )
Crestwood (Mantua) 18% (4W-1% 5W-19% 6W-95% 7W-100% )
Southeast (Ravenna) 10% (6W-1% 7W-37% 8W-99% )
Bay (Bay Village) 7% (4W-1% 5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-87% 8W-100% )
Norton 7% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-89% 8W-100% )
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 7% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-42% 7W-97% )
Padua Franciscan (Parma) 5% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-42% 8W-90% )

Region 10 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.60)
Bellevue 99% (6W-72% 7W-95% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Napoleon 99% (5W-22% 6W-90% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Urbana 98% (6W-19% 7W-73% 8W-96% 9W-99% )
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 96% (4W-26% 5W-90% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Bryan 94% (7W-24% 8W-73% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Elida 92% (6W-26% 7W-78% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 72% (5W-2% 6W-34% 7W-96% 8W-100% )
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 36% (4W-2% 5W-55% 6W-98% 7W-100% )
River Valley (Caledonia) 28% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-61% 9W-99% )
Perkins (Sandusky) 27% (6W-3% 7W-33% 8W-87% 9W-100% )
Independence (Columbus) 21% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-68% 8W-100% )
East (Columbus) 18% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-18% 8W-81% 9W-100% )
Clyde 11% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-64% )
Bellefontaine 4% (4W-1% 5W-27% 6W-94% )

Region 11 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 17.89)
Marlington (Alliance) 99% (7W-89% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Granville 99% (7W-36% 8W-91% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
West Holmes (Millersburg) 90% (5W-5% 6W-35% 7W-83% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Struthers 88% (4W-1% 5W-19% 6W-81% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Steubenville 72% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-44% 8W-81% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 69% (4W-45% 5W-96% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
Sheridan (Thornville) 67% (7W-14% 8W-85% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Maysville (Zanesville) 49% (6W-3% 7W-31% 8W-82% 9W-100% )
Dover 32% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-84% 8W-100% )
Carrollton 26% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-55% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Licking Valley (Newark) 20% (6W-1% 7W-23% 8W-97% )
John Glenn (New Concord) 20% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-63% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Poland Seminary (Poland) 18% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-52% 8W-98% )
Claymont (Uhrichsville) 14% (6W-1% 7W-2% 8W-26% 9W-91% )
Minerva 12% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-78% 8W-100% )
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 12% (6W-1% 7W-3% 8W-50% 9W-99% )
Canton South (Canton) 4% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-59% 9W-100% )
Philo (Duncan Falls) 4% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-89% )
Cambridge 3% (6W-1% 7W-54% 8W-100% )

Region 12 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.55)
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 99% (7W-81% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Athens (The Plains) 96% (6W-18% 7W-57% 8W-91% 9W-99% )
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 94% (5W-3% 6W-25% 7W-88% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Circleville 70% (5W-5% 6W-47% 7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Gallia Academy (Gallipolis) 68% (5W-1% 6W-18% 7W-69% 8W-99% )
Goshen 65% (7W-15% 8W-70% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Kenton Ridge (Springfield) 60% (6W-4% 7W-44% 8W-94% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 40% (6W-1% 7W-20% 8W-93% )
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 34% (6W-3% 7W-53% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Logan Elm (Circleville) 31% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-41% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Taft (Cincinnati) 29% (6W-1% 7W-33% 8W-97% )
New Richmond 27% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-46% 8W-98% )
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 26% (4W-1% 5W-9% 6W-93% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Shawnee (Springfield) 21% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-84% 8W-100% )
Dunbar (Dayton) 18% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-77% 8W-100% )
Jackson 14% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-51% 8W-99% )
Eaton 4% (6W-1% 7W-3% 8W-47% )
Mc Clain (Greenfield) 2% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-16% 8W-79% )

Region 13 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.20)
Brookfield 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Norwayne (Creston) 99% (7W-83% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Lakeview (Cortland) 81% (4W-4% 5W-36% 6W-85% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Hawken (Gates Mills) 81% (6W-6% 7W-46% 8W-94% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Tuslaw (Massillon) 67% (4W-1% 5W-13% 6W-66% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Triway (Wooster) 66% (6W-9% 7W-73% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Manchester (Akron) 54% (5W-9% 6W-80% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Streetsboro 52% (4W-1% 5W-5% 6W-48% 7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 41% (4W-1% 5W-6% 6W-47% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Northwestern (West Salem) 37% (6W-3% 7W-40% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Sandy Valley (Magnolia) 32% (5W-1% 6W-27% 7W-92% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Liberty (Youngstown) 28% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-39% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Cardinal (Middlefield) 19% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-57% 8W-99% )
Beachwood 14% (6W-4% 7W-73% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Fairview (Fairview Park) 11% (4W-1% 5W-7% 6W-72% 7W-99% )
Black River (Sullivan) 5% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-45% )
Edgewood (Ashtabula) 3% (5W-1% 6W-31% 7W-100% )
Perry 3% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-53% 7W-100% )
Lutheran West (Rocky River) 2% (5W-1% 6W-19% 7W-88% )

Region 14 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 16.50)
Genoa Area (Genoa) 99% (7W-65% 8W-96% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 99% (6W-52% 7W-97% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
North Union (Richwood) 95% (8W-41% 9W-96% 10W-100% )
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 93% (6W-11% 7W-24% 8W-90% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Huron 79% (6W-4% 7W-40% 8W-94% 9W-100% )
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 78% (5W-6% 6W-48% 7W-88% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 75% (5W-6% 6W-38% 7W-88% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Kenton 47% (6W-4% 7W-59% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Clearview (Lorain) 45% (6W-2% 7W-19% 8W-70% 9W-99% )
Galion 43% (7W-9% 8W-71% 9W-99% )
Oak Harbor 19% (6W-1% 7W-9% 8W-67% 9W-100% )
Edison (Milan) 8% (6W-1% 7W-16% 8W-84% 9W-100% )
Otsego (Tontogany) 6% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-27% 8W-99% )
Clear Fork (Bellville) 4% (4W-1% 5W-4% 6W-45% 7W-98% )
Upper Sandusky 4% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-8% 8W-77% )
Ontario (Mansfield) 3% (6W-1% 7W-3% 8W-65% )

Region 15 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.27)
Ironton 100% (4W-100% 5W-100% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
St Clairsville 99% (7W-94% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Harrison Central (Cadiz) 99% (6W-29% 7W-76% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Martins Ferry 90% (5W-4% 6W-23% 7W-87% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 88% (5W-2% 6W-44% 7W-96% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Minford 87% (5W-3% 6W-24% 7W-72% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Zane Trace (Chillicothe) 58% (4W-1% 5W-16% 6W-71% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 45% (4W-4% 5W-45% 6W-97% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Piketon 40% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-63% 8W-99% )
Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 39% (4W-1% 5W-12% 6W-74% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Unioto (Chillicothe) 17% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-72% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Meadowbrook (Byesville) 11% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-64% 8W-97% 9W-100% )
Fairland (Proctorville) 7% (6W-2% 7W-23% 8W-97% )
Bloom-Carroll (Carroll) 5% (4W-1% 5W-7% 6W-62% 7W-98% )
Coshocton 5% (4W-2% 5W-43% 6W-100% )
Chesapeake 4% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-47% )

Region 16 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.57)
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-92% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Westfall (Williamsport) 99% (6W-76% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 81% (5W-1% 6W-20% 7W-90% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Milton-Union (West Milton) 63% (6W-1% 7W-41% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Madeira (Cincinnati) 57% (6W-1% 7W-11% 8W-55% 9W-99% )
Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) 54% (5W-2% 6W-16% 7W-77% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Carlisle 49% (7W-7% 8W-76% 9W-100% )
Brookville 48% (5W-1% 6W-23% 7W-79% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Batavia 46% (7W-2% 8W-12% 9W-58% 10W-99% )
Shroder (Cincinnati) 30% (7W-2% 8W-35% 9W-96% 10W-100% )
Waynesville 20% (6W-1% 7W-24% 8W-95% )
Norwood 13% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-42% 8W-97% 9W-100% )
Blanchester 11% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-66% 8W-100% )
Badin (Hamilton) 11% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-59% 8W-100% )
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 6% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-91% )
Valley View (Germantown) 5% (4W-1% 5W-6% 6W-87% 7W-100% )
Madison (Middletown) 4% (6W-1% 7W-43% 8W-99% )
Greeneview (Jamestown) 3% (7W-1% 8W-16% 9W-100% )

Region 17 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.50)
Kirtland 99% (7W-13% 8W-97% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 99% (6W-62% 7W-84% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Crestview (Columbiana) 99% (8W-70% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 98% (6W-33% 7W-87% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 94% (6W-18% 7W-58% 8W-92% 9W-99% )
Memorial (Campbell) 58% (5W-2% 6W-22% 7W-73% 8W-99% )
Columbiana 55% (7W-4% 8W-35% 9W-91% )
Ursuline (Youngstown) 50% (4W-3% 5W-37% 6W-92% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Bellaire 38% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-41% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 33% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-47% 9W-96% )
Independence 32% (6W-1% 7W-31% 8W-93% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Barnesville 28% (6W-1% 7W-17% 8W-79% 9W-100% )
Southern (Salineville) 10% (7W-1% 8W-14% 9W-83% )
United (Hanoverton) 3% (7W-1% 8W-3% 9W-76% )

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.00)
Northwood 99% (9W-99% 10W-100% )
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 99% (7W-69% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 97% (7W-24% 8W-92% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Archbold 75% (6W-6% 7W-44% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Hicksville 69% (6W-1% 7W-20% 8W-96% )
Liberty Center 67% (6W-3% 7W-41% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Columbia (Columbia Station) 56% (6W-1% 7W-22% 8W-85% 9W-100% )
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 56% (7W-2% 8W-38% 9W-99% )
Carey 52% (6W-2% 7W-34% 8W-93% 9W-100% )
Western Reserve (Collins) 48% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-56% 9W-97% )
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 40% (6W-4% 7W-58% 8W-99% )
Jefferson (Delphos) 18% (7W-1% 8W-33% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Tinora (Defiance) 5% (8W-1% 9W-58% )
Columbus Grove 5% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-72% )
Seneca East (Attica) 3% (7W-1% 8W-17% 9W-90% )
Elmwood (Bloomdale) 2% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-47% 9W-100% )
Spencerville 2% (7W-1% 8W-44% 9W-100% )
Evergreen (Metamora) 2% (6W-1% 7W-47% 8W-100% )

Region 19 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.50)
Wynford (Bucyrus) 99% (6W-17% 7W-84% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Valley (Lucasville) 96% (7W-27% 8W-78% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Oak Hill 95% (5W-3% 6W-40% 7W-93% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Wheelersburg 94% (5W-8% 6W-54% 7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Loudonville 90% (5W-24% 6W-82% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
East Knox (Howard) 86% (5W-7% 6W-64% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 84% (6W-11% 7W-60% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 39% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-84% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Fredericktown 35% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-43% 7W-95% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 17% (4W-1% 5W-1% 6W-28% 7W-93% 8W-100% )
Crooksville 15% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-43% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 13% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-80% 9W-100% )
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 10% (5W-1% 6W-13% 7W-87% )
Federal Hocking (Stewart) 8% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-9% 8W-62% 9W-97% )
Crestview (Ashland) 5% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-75% )
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 4% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-82% )
Centerburg 4% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-69% 8W-100% )
Smithville 3% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-50% 8W-100% )
Bucyrus 3% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-46% 7W-94% )

Region 20 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.80)
Coldwater 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Covington 99% (7W-33% 8W-76% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 98% (7W-21% 8W-68% 9W-98% 10W-100% )
Dayton Christian (Miamisburg) 86% (7W-11% 8W-47% 9W-91% 10W-99% )
Pleasant (Marion) 83% (6W-3% 7W-27% 8W-84% 9W-99% )
Dixie (New Lebanon) 77% (6W-3% 7W-58% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Madison Plains (London) 66% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-52% 8W-95% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
West Jefferson 56% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-72% 9W-100% )
Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) 49% (7W-4% 8W-40% 9W-97% 10W-100% )
Miami East (Casstown) 22% (6W-1% 7W-19% 8W-93% 9W-100% )
Anna 17% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-63% 8W-99% )
Triad (North Lewisburg) 17% (6W-1% 7W-7% 8W-54% 9W-100% )
Versailles 12% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-43% 8W-99% )
Clark Montessori (Cincinnati) 8% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-66% 9W-100% )
Paint Valley (Bainbridge) 5% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-66% 8W-100% )
Huntington (Chillicothe) 2% (6W-1% 7W-15% 8W-92% )

Region 21 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.61)
Mogadore 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Malvern 99% (5W-90% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Shadyside 99% (6W-50% 7W-92% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
John F Kennedy (Warren) 98% (5W-38% 6W-84% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 90% (5W-39% 6W-83% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Fairport Harding (Fairport Harbor) 90% (4W-14% 5W-54% 6W-95% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Catholic Central (Steubenville) 54% (4W-4% 5W-41% 6W-90% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 36% (5W-1% 6W-24% 7W-94% 8W-100% )
Wellsville 33% (4W-1% 5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-74% 8W-99% )
Tuscarawas Central Catholic (New Philadelphia) 16% (4W-1% 5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-71% 8W-100% )
Leetonia 13% (5W-1% 6W-19% 7W-87% 8W-100% )
Newbury 11% (5W-2% 6W-33% 7W-93% 8W-100% )
East Canton 9% (4W-1% 5W-10% 6W-70% 7W-100% )
Strasburg-Franklin (Strasburg) 8% (4W-1% 5W-27% 6W-88% 7W-100% )
St John Central (Bellaire) 8% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-46% 8W-89% )
Conotton Valley (Bowerston) 7% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-29% 8W-84% )
Mineral Ridge 6% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-33% 7W-94% )
Windham 6% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-79% 8W-100% )
Ledgemont (Thompson) 5% (5W-1% 6W-22% 7W-82% )
Mc Donald 5% (4W-1% 5W-1% 6W-21% 7W-85% )
Chalker (Southington) 3% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-22% 8W-75% )
Dalton 2% (4W-1% 5W-1% 6W-24% 7W-100% )

Region 22 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 9.45)
Mc Comb 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Leipsic 99% (6W-53% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
St John’S (Delphos) 96% (4W-30% 5W-92% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Arlington 85% (5W-11% 6W-46% 7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 81% (4W-1% 5W-20% 6W-73% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Calvert (Tiffin) 79% (4W-19% 5W-84% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
St Paul (Norwalk) 77% (4W-1% 5W-27% 6W-82% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Edon 73% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-75% 8W-99% )
Crestview (Convoy) 32% (4W-1% 5W-17% 6W-83% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Toledo Christian (Toledo) 17% (5W-2% 6W-29% 7W-99% )
Monroeville 17% (4W-4% 5W-40% 6W-98% 7W-100% )
Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 15% (5W-1% 6W-26% 7W-98% )
Arcadia 14% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-89% 8W-100% )
Hilltop (West Unity) 3% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-81% )
Mohawk (Sycamore) 3% (4W-1% 5W-24% 6W-97% )
Ayersville (Defiance) 2% (4W-1% 5W-1% 6W-24% 7W-98% )
Montpelier 2% (4W-1% 5W-18% 6W-92% )

Region 23 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.70)
Trimble (Glouster) 99% (7W-95% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 99% (5W-73% 6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) 97% (5W-13% 6W-50% 7W-92% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Danville 95% (4W-15% 5W-63% 6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Newark Catholic (Newark) 88% (4W-5% 5W-47% 6W-93% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 68% (5W-1% 6W-31% 7W-93% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Notre Dame (Portsmouth) 67% (6W-11% 7W-55% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Harvest Preparatory (Canal Winchester) 55% (5W-2% 6W-43% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
River (Hannibal) 29% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-48% 8W-99% )
Eastern (Reedsville) 29% (5W-2% 6W-22% 7W-90% 8W-100% )
Fairfield Christian Academy (Lancaster) 26% (6W-1% 7W-23% 8W-84% 9W-100% )
Sciotoville Community (Portsmouth) 24% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-87% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Grove City Christian (Grove City) 13% (6W-1% 7W-15% 8W-87% )
Mapleton (Ashland) 6% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-50% 8W-92% )
Frontier (New Matamoras) 2% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-35% 8W-97% )

Region 24 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.10)
Ada 99% (6W-65% 7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 99% (5W-43% 6W-97% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Fort Loramie 99% (6W-75% 7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
St Henry 98% (4W-27% 5W-77% 6W-97% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Bradford 88% (5W-17% 6W-49% 7W-89% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Minster 84% (4W-10% 5W-45% 6W-95% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 77% (4W-1% 5W-12% 6W-68% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Oyler (Cincinnati) 49% (4W-20% 5W-57% 6W-90% 7W-99% )
Southeastern Local (South Charleston) 47% (4W-1% 5W-11% 6W-43% 7W-89% 8W-100% )
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 25% (4W-3% 5W-28% 6W-83% )
Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 15% (4W-3% 5W-37% 6W-97% 7W-100% )
Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) 7% (4W-1% 5W-7% 6W-61% 7W-100% )
Jefferson Township (Dayton) 7% (4W-1% 5W-11% 6W-66% 7W-100% )
Cedarville 2% (4W-7% 5W-53% 6W-92% )

_______________________________________________________________________

We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

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