The Fantastic 50: Week 5 Formula Rankings…Ohio’s top team is?

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Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

Based on Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 formula, what team – regardless of division – debuts at No. 1 in Ohio? St. Ignatius? Colerain? Moeller? St. X? Fitch? Elder? Click here to see who the computers like.


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This Week’s
Predictions

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This Week’s
Playoff Odds

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We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or
strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew
Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where
he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina
version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine
years and has recently made a push in that stae to change the way it
selects postseason participants.

This Week’s Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50

Ohio’s Top Teams are…

1) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (4-0, D1 R1) 162.7
2) St Edward (Lakewood) (4-0, D1 R1) 161.0
3) Colerain (Cincinnati) (4-0, D1 R4) 153.8
4) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (2-2, D1 R4) 148.2
5) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (4-0, D1 R1) 147.5
6) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (4-0, D1 R4) 147.5
7) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (4-0, D1 R3) 146.7
8) Mentor (3-1, D1 R1) 146.4
9) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-2, D1 R4) 146.0
10) Wayne (Huber Heights) (3-1, D1 R4) 144.5
11) Lakota West (West Chester) (4-0, D1 R4) 144.2
12) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (2-2, D3 R11) 143.3
13) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (3-1, D1 R1) 143.2
14) Coldwater (4-0, D5 R20) 142.0
15) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (3-0, D1 R2) 141.7
16) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (4-0, D1 R3) 141.5
17) Whitmer (Toledo) (4-0, D1 R2) 141.5
18) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (3-1, D2 R8) 140.9
19) Sycamore (Cincinnati) (4-0, D1 R4) 140.8
20) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (2-1, D1 R3) 140.6
21) South (Willoughby) (4-0, D1 R1) 140.0
22) Chagrin Falls (4-0, D3 R9) 139.5
23) Lincoln (Gahanna) (4-0, D1 R3) 139.2
24) Warren G Harding (Warren) (3-1, D1 R1) 138.8
25) Westerville South (Westerville) (4-0, D1 R3) 138.7
26) Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) (4-0, D1 R3) 138.0
27) Springboro (4-0, D1 R4) 138.0
28) Findlay (4-0, D1 R2) 137.9
29) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (3-1, D1 R2) 137.4
30) Boardman (Youngstown) (3-1, D1 R1) 137.3
31) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (2-2, D2 R8) 137.3
32) Glenoak (Canton) (3-1, D1 R2) 137.0
33) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (4-0, D3 R12) 136.4
34) Cleveland Heights (4-0, D1 R1) 136.4
35) Brunswick (3-1, D1 R2) 136.2
36) North Royalton (4-0, D1 R1) 136.1
37) Olentangy (Lewis Center) (4-0, D1 R3) 135.9
38) Middletown (2-2, D1 R4) 135.1
39) Hoover (North Canton) (3-1, D1 R2) 134.8
40) Tri-Valley (Dresden) (4-0, D2 R7) 134.4
41) Hudson (3-1, D1 R2) 134.4
42) Centerville (2-2, D1 R4) 134.2
43) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (4-0, D4 R14) 134.2
44) Zanesville (4-0, D2 R7) 134.1
45) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (4-0, D4 R16) 133.8
46) Aurora (3-1, D2 R5) 133.6
47) Central Catholic (Toledo) (4-0, D2 R6) 133.6
48) Dublin Scioto (Dublin) (3-1, D1 R3) 133.0
49) Steubenville (4-0, D3 R11) 132.9
50) Marlington (Alliance) (4-0, D3 R11) 132.6

OHSAA Division I Rankings
1) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (4-0) 162.7
2) St Edward (Lakewood) (4-0) 161.0
3) Colerain (Cincinnati) (4-0) 153.8
4) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (2-2) 148.2
5) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (4-0) 147.5
6) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (4-0) 147.5
7) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (4-0) 146.7
8) Mentor (3-1) 146.4
9) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-2) 146.0
10) Wayne (Huber Heights) (3-1) 144.5
11) Lakota West (West Chester) (4-0) 144.2
12) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (3-1) 143.2
13) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (3-0) 141.7
14) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (4-0) 141.5
15) Whitmer (Toledo) (4-0) 141.5

OHSAA Division II Rankings
1) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (3-1) 140.9
2) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (2-2) 137.3
3) Tri-Valley (Dresden) (4-0) 134.4
4) Zanesville (4-0) 134.1
5) Aurora (3-1) 133.6
6) Central Catholic (Toledo) (4-0) 133.6
7) Turpin (Cincinnati) (4-0) 132.5
8) New Albany (2-2) 131.6
9) Columbian (Tiffin) (4-0) 130.5
10) Highland (Medina) (3-1) 129.5
11) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (3-1) 129.0
12) Chardon (4-0) 128.9
13) Tallmadge (3-1) 128.8
14) Midview (Grafton) (4-0) 128.7
15) Ashland (3-1) 125.7

OHSAA Division III Rankings
1) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (2-2) 143.3
2) Chagrin Falls (4-0) 139.5
3) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (4-0) 136.4
4) Steubenville (4-0) 132.9
5) Marlington (Alliance) (4-0) 132.6
6) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (3-1) 131.7
7) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (3-1) 131.7
8) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (3-0-1) 129.2
9) Elida (4-0) 127.6
10) Granville (4-0) 127.0
11) Bryan (4-0) 126.1
12) Napoleon (3-0-1) 125.9
13) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (1-3) 125.4
14) Bellevue (4-0) 123.9
15) West Holmes (Millersburg) (4-0) 123.9

OHSAA Division IV Rankings
1) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (4-0) 134.2
2) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (4-0) 133.8
3) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (4-0) 130.5
4) Brookfield (4-0) 127.2
5) Genoa Area (Genoa) (4-0) 125.4
6) Kenton (3-1) 125.3
7) Norwayne (Creston) (4-0) 123.7
8) Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) (3-1) 123.1
9) St Clairsville (4-0) 121.1
10) Ironton (4-0) 121.1
11) Harrison Central (Cadiz) (4-0) 116.6
12) Huron (3-1) 116.4
13) Bishop Ready (Columbus) (4-0) 115.9
14) North Union (Richwood) (4-0) 115.7
15) Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) (3-1) 114.8

OHSAA Division V Rankings
1) Coldwater (4-0) 142.0
2) Ursuline (Youngstown) (3-1) 130.9
3) Kirtland (4-0) 128.7
4) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (4-0) 128.6
5) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (4-0) 127.1
6) St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) (3-1) 124.4
7) Northwood (4-0) 119.2
8) Wynford (Bucyrus) (4-0) 118.3
9) Valley (Lucasville) (4-0) 117.8
10) Archbold (3-1) 117.6
11) Crestview (Columbiana) (4-0) 117.4
12) Versailles (2-2) 117.0
13) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (3-1) 116.7
14) Liberty Center (3-1) 116.1
15) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (4-0) 115.0

OHSAA Division VI Rankings
1) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (4-0) 125.5
2) St John’S (Delphos) (2-2) 121.0
3) Mc Comb (4-0) 120.3
4) Leipsic (4-0) 120.1
5) Mogadore (4-0) 119.9
6) Ada (4-0) 119.2
7) St Henry (3-1) 117.9
8) Minster (3-1) 113.5
9) Shadyside (4-0) 110.8
10) Malvern (3-1) 110.6
11) Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) (4-0) 107.4
12) Newark Catholic (Newark) (3-1) 106.5
13) Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) (3-1) 106.1
14) Fort Loramie (3-1) 105.0
15) John F Kennedy (Warren) (4-0) 104.8

 

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