The Fantastic 50: Week 4 Playoff Odds..Already? Yep.

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Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

Based on Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 formula, here’s a look at the 2012 postseason odds – Yeah, we know…There are still seven games to go in the regular season. 


These numbers are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  For those interested in more details about the methodology and results, they were published here.  If you can’t access that site, but would like a copy of the paper, then send me an e-mail.

In parenthesis are conditional Harbin point values and conditional playoff probabilities, based on how many games a team wins.  For example, 7W-18.9H-63% would mean that if that team wins exactly 7 games, they would have an estimated 18.9 Harbin points and a 63% chance of earning a berth.

This Week’s
Playoff Odds

Region 1 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 22.70)
South (Willoughby) 98% (8W-64% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 95% (5W-7% 6W-39% 7W-78% 8W-97% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
St Edward (Lakewood) 88% (5W-1% 6W-26% 7W-86% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 85% (7W-7% 8W-50% 9W-93% 10W-99% )
Mentor 83% (6W-5% 7W-41% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Warren G Harding (Warren) 61% (6W-1% 7W-15% 8W-79% 9W-100% )
Solon 46% (6W-7% 7W-63% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Cleveland Heights 44% (7W-1% 8W-9% 9W-72% 10W-99% )
North Olmsted 42% (6W-1% 7W-7% 8W-47% 9W-96% 10W-100% )
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 42% (8W-32% 9W-99% )
North Royalton 42% (6W-1% 7W-7% 8W-58% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Shaker Heights 30% (6W-1% 7W-1% 8W-22% 9W-73% )
Mayfield 24% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-57% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Midpark (Middleburg Heights) 12% (6W-1% 7W-2% 8W-28% 9W-89% 10W-100% )
Boardman (Youngstown) 5% (6W-1% 7W-39% 8W-98% )
Euclid 2% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-99% )

Region 2 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 22.45)
Glenoak (Canton) 90% (6W-8% 7W-50% 8W-94% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Hudson 86% (6W-3% 7W-44% 8W-93% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Whitmer (Toledo) 85% (7W-12% 8W-61% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 80% (5W-11% 6W-66% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Findlay 78% (6W-1% 7W-12% 8W-64% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Hoover (North Canton) 65% (6W-2% 7W-24% 8W-77% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 64% (4W-1% 5W-13% 6W-53% 7W-94% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Avon Lake 63% (6W-5% 7W-44% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Brunswick 40% (6W-6% 7W-49% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Wadsworth 38% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-55% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Nordonia (Macedonia) 34% (6W-4% 7W-46% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Green 28% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-56% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Elyria 19% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-42% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Anthony Wayne (Whitehouse) 11% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-58% 9W-99% )
Jackson (Massillon) 8% (5W-2% 6W-18% 7W-64% 8W-100% )
Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 5% (6W-1% 7W-21% 8W-92% )
Steele (Amherst) 2% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-69% 8W-100% )
Stow-Munroe Falls (Stow) 2% (5W-1% 6W-26% 7W-89% )

Region 3 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 22.46)
Olentangy (Lewis Center) 97% (6W-7% 7W-38% 8W-94% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 88% (8W-27% 9W-95% 10W-100% )
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 82% (5W-3% 6W-33% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 82% (6W-1% 7W-22% 8W-88% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 79% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-65% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Lincoln (Gahanna) 76% (6W-1% 7W-18% 8W-77% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Westerville South (Westerville) 76% (6W-1% 7W-17% 8W-82% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Westerville Central (Westerville) 71% (6W-3% 7W-37% 8W-94% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
St Charles (Columbus) 39% (5W-3% 6W-33% 7W-90% 8W-100% )
Olentangy Liberty (Powell) 36% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-66% 9W-100% )
Troy 21% (6W-1% 7W-3% 8W-31% 9W-93% )
Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) 16% (7W-5% 8W-55% 9W-100% )
Dublin Scioto (Dublin) 11% (6W-1% 7W-33% 8W-97% 9W-100% )
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 8% (7W-1% 8W-34% 9W-100% )
Bradley (Hilliard) 7% (6W-1% 7W-2% 8W-41% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Upper Arlington (Columbus) 5% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-99% )
Reynoldsburg 5% (6W-1% 7W-8% 8W-88% 9W-100% )

Region 4 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 22.02)
Colerain (Cincinnati) 99% (6W-75% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Springboro 99% (6W-21% 7W-70% 8W-98% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Wayne (Huber Heights) 94% (6W-25% 7W-72% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Lebanon 91% (6W-5% 7W-37% 8W-89% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 68% (5W-2% 6W-29% 7W-86% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Lakota West (West Chester) 66% (6W-2% 7W-25% 8W-81% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Elder (Cincinnati) 58% (4W-1% 5W-19% 6W-87% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Sycamore (Cincinnati) 53% (6W-1% 7W-20% 8W-74% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 36% (5W-6% 6W-68% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Loveland 29% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-17% 8W-76% 9W-99% )
Mason 23% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-56% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Lakota East (Liberty Township) 23% (5W-2% 6W-33% 7W-89% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Withrow (Cincinnati) 21% (7W-4% 8W-71% )
Fairfield 9% (4W-1% 5W-8% 6W-66% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Centerville 8% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-39% 8W-100% )
Miamisburg 5% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-48% 8W-100% )
La Salle (Cincinnati) 4% (6W-3% 7W-38% 8W-92% )
Oak Hills (Cincinnati) 3% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-57% 8W-100% )
Middletown 2% (6W-1% 7W-30% 8W-100% )
Walnut Hills (Cincinnati) 2% (6W-1% 7W-13% 8W-63% 9W-100% )
Xenia 2% (6W-1% 7W-13% 8W-94% )
Kettering Fairmont (Kettering) 2% (5W-1% 6W-20% 7W-81% )

Region 5 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 16.40)
Chardon 99% (6W-46% 7W-93% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Aurora 98% (6W-23% 7W-57% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Copley 91% (4W-4% 5W-42% 6W-94% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Louisville 90% (4W-8% 5W-9% 6W-41% 7W-91% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
New Philadelphia 81% (5W-1% 6W-23% 7W-69% 8W-97% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Roosevelt (Kent) 78% (5W-3% 6W-27% 7W-83% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Tallmadge 69% (4W-5% 5W-46% 6W-96% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Howland (Warren) 66% (4W-2% 5W-24% 6W-66% 7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Madison 25% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-55% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 22% (5W-1% 6W-13% 7W-85% 8W-100% )
Firestone (Akron) 21% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-66% 8W-96% )
West Geauga (Chesterland) 17% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-33% 7W-96% 8W-100% )
Lake (Uniontown) 11% (4W-18% 5W-76% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
Garfield (Akron) 9% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-73% 8W-100% )
Canfield 7% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-41% 7W-96% 8W-100% )
Ellet (Akron) 4% (6W-1% 7W-11% 8W-63% )
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 4% (4W-1% 5W-18% 6W-93% )
Springfield (Akron) 3% (5W-5% 6W-36% 7W-94% )
Kenmore (Akron) 2% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-48% 9W-100% )
Coventry (Akron) 2% (6W-1% 7W-31% 8W-94% )

Region 6 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.40)
Midview (Grafton) 97% (7W-38% 8W-87% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Columbian (Tiffin) 93% (7W-22% 8W-63% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Central Catholic (Toledo) 86% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-67% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Madison Comprehensive (Mansfield) 72% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-67% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Rogers (Toledo) 67% (6W-5% 7W-48% 8W-95% 9W-99% )
Maumee 61% (5W-1% 6W-21% 7W-87% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Westlake 57% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-63% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Avon 50% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-76% 9W-100% )
Perrysburg 46% (5W-2% 6W-28% 7W-89% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Norwalk 43% (6W-1% 7W-15% 8W-57% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Cloverleaf (Lodi) 28% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-41% 8W-95% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Lexington 20% (5W-1% 6W-19% 7W-77% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Shaw (East Cleveland) 18% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-36% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Highland (Medina) 14% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-75% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Berea 10% (4W-1% 5W-8% 6W-50% 7W-96% 8W-100% )
Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) 9% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-69% 8W-100% )
Fremont Ross (Fremont) 8% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-43% 8W-100% )
Maple Heights 8% (6W-2% 7W-34% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Bedford 4% (6W-1% 7W-21% 8W-91% )
Clay (Oregon) 3% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-56% 8W-100% )
Bowling Green 3% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-67% 8W-100% )

Region 7 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.60)
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 99% (6W-18% 7W-72% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 96% (6W-10% 7W-68% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Zanesville 84% (6W-6% 7W-63% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Licking Heights (Pataskala) 75% (7W-1% 8W-18% 9W-82% 10W-99% )
Beechcroft (Columbus) 74% (6W-16% 7W-86% 8W-100% )
Ashland 71% (5W-4% 6W-41% 7W-92% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Hamilton Township (Columbus) 67% (6W-1% 7W-17% 8W-77% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
New Albany 66% (5W-1% 6W-30% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Brookhaven (Columbus) 53% (6W-4% 7W-53% 8W-99% )
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 26% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-23% 8W-89% 9W-100% )
Walnut Ridge (Columbus) 19% (6W-3% 7W-61% 8W-100% )
Wooster 17% (4W-1% 5W-10% 6W-68% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Canal Winchester 13% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-65% 8W-100% )
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 11% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-29% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Teays Valley (Ashville) 11% (5W-2% 6W-34% 7W-92% 8W-100% )
Mount Vernon 6% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-53% 8W-100% )
Worthington Kilbourne (Columbus) 5% (5W-1% 6W-41% 7W-99% )
Mifflin (Columbus) 4% (7W-1% 8W-39% 9W-100% )
Bellbrook 3% (6W-1% 7W-26% 8W-94% )

Region 8 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.65)
Turpin (Cincinnati) 99% (6W-65% 7W-97% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 94% (7W-18% 8W-75% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 85% (4W-3% 5W-37% 6W-91% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Franklin 81% (5W-2% 6W-20% 7W-71% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 81% (6W-2% 7W-20% 8W-77% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Northwest (Cincinnati) 78% (6W-3% 7W-36% 8W-91% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 76% (5W-1% 6W-19% 7W-82% 8W-99% )
Western Brown (Mount Orab) 65% (6W-1% 7W-5% 8W-35% 9W-89% 10W-99% )
Edgewood (Trenton) 63% (6W-3% 7W-33% 8W-89% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Wilmington 28% (6W-1% 7W-8% 8W-61% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Wapakoneta 12% (7W-3% 8W-34% 9W-96% )
Piqua 12% (6W-2% 7W-34% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Kings (Kings Mills) 9% (5W-1% 6W-18% 7W-79% 8W-100% )
Celina 8% (6W-1% 7W-2% 8W-31% 9W-99% )
Amelia (Batavia) 3% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-69% 8W-100% )
Ross (Hamilton) 2% (5W-1% 6W-13% 7W-90% )
Harrison 2% (5W-2% 6W-57% 7W-100% )

Region 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.68)
Chagrin Falls 99% (6W-19% 7W-76% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Ravenna 95% (4W-7% 5W-59% 6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Woodridge (Peninsula) 92% (5W-9% 6W-38% 7W-88% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 90% (6W-22% 7W-57% 8W-96% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Niles Mc Kinley (Niles) 77% (5W-8% 6W-54% 7W-96% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Hubbard 71% (5W-1% 6W-21% 7W-80% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Jefferson Area (Jefferson) 59% (6W-1% 7W-12% 8W-59% 9W-98% 10W-100% )
John Hay (Cleveland) 49% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-65% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Benedictine (Cleveland) 30% (4W-1% 5W-7% 6W-44% 7W-91% 8W-100% )
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 26% (4W-1% 5W-11% 6W-62% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 25% (4W-1% 5W-4% 6W-39% 7W-88% 8W-100% )
Field (Mogadore) 20% (4W-1% 5W-19% 6W-88% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Crestwood (Mantua) 17% (4W-1% 5W-18% 6W-88% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Bay (Bay Village) 15% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-22% 7W-81% 8W-100% )
Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) 11% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-74% 8W-100% )
Buchtel (Akron) 10% (5W-2% 6W-59% 7W-100% )
University School (Hunting Valley) 5% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-33% 7W-100% )
Padua Franciscan (Parma) 4% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-56% 8W-98% )

Region 10 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 16.05)
Bellevue 99% (6W-76% 7W-97% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Elida 98% (6W-31% 7W-87% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 97% (4W-14% 5W-79% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Napoleon 95% (5W-18% 6W-84% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Bryan 81% (7W-8% 8W-60% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Urbana 73% (6W-5% 7W-35% 8W-84% 9W-99% )
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 42% (4W-1% 5W-38% 6W-94% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 42% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-89% 8W-100% )
Perkins (Sandusky) 34% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-33% 8W-90% 9W-99% )
Independence (Columbus) 34% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-62% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Clyde 31% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-64% 8W-99% )
East (Columbus) 28% (6W-2% 7W-19% 8W-83% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
River Valley (Caledonia) 24% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-48% 9W-99% )
Rossford 9% (6W-1% 7W-7% 8W-43% 9W-99% )
Port Clinton 6% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-65% 8W-100% )
Indian Lake (Lewistown) 4% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-68% 8W-100% )

Region 11 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 18.35)
Granville 99% (7W-72% 8W-94% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Marlington (Alliance) 99% (6W-36% 7W-83% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Struthers 83% (5W-5% 6W-48% 7W-96% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Steubenville 74% (5W-10% 6W-30% 7W-62% 8W-93% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
West Holmes (Millersburg) 74% (5W-3% 6W-31% 7W-84% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Dover 60% (5W-1% 6W-18% 7W-88% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Poland Seminary (Poland) 55% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-60% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Sheridan (Thornville) 47% (7W-16% 8W-83% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Maysville (Zanesville) 40% (6W-2% 7W-28% 8W-85% 9W-99% )
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 40% (6W-1% 7W-9% 8W-61% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Canton South (Canton) 31% (6W-1% 7W-11% 8W-53% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 24% (4W-19% 5W-85% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
Carrollton 23% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-15% 8W-64% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
John Glenn (New Concord) 17% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-48% 8W-97% 9W-100% )
Licking Valley (Newark) 9% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-92% )
Cambridge 8% (6W-1% 7W-24% 8W-92% 9W-100% )
Claymont (Uhrichsville) 7% (6W-1% 7W-1% 8W-15% 9W-78% )
Philo (Duncan Falls) 4% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-85% )
New Lexington 2% (7W-4% 8W-53% )

Region 12 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.63)
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 99% (7W-83% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 95% (5W-3% 6W-22% 7W-87% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Goshen 73% (6W-5% 7W-38% 8W-89% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Kenton Ridge (Springfield) 69% (6W-6% 7W-40% 8W-91% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Jackson 65% (5W-2% 6W-20% 7W-78% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Athens (The Plains) 55% (6W-1% 7W-19% 8W-69% 9W-99% )
Taft (Cincinnati) 54% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-49% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 48% (6W-3% 7W-28% 8W-95% )
Logan Elm (Circleville) 44% (5W-3% 6W-47% 7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Gallia Academy (Gallipolis) 43% (5W-1% 6W-13% 7W-60% 8W-99% )
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 37% (4W-1% 5W-10% 6W-90% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
New Richmond 27% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-55% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Circleville 27% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-40% 7W-94% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Dunbar (Dayton) 23% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-77% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 14% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-41% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Shawnee (Springfield) 12% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-80% 8W-100% )
Eaton 7% (6W-1% 7W-3% 8W-33% 9W-96% )
Mc Clain (Greenfield) 4% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-30% 8W-80% )

Region 13 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.76)
Norwayne (Creston) 99% (7W-78% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Streetsboro 94% (5W-14% 6W-65% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Brookfield 93% (6W-15% 7W-68% 8W-97% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Tuslaw (Massillon) 86% (5W-8% 6W-54% 7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Triway (Wooster) 68% (5W-1% 6W-18% 7W-74% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Lakeview (Cortland) 65% (4W-1% 5W-16% 6W-69% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Hawken (Gates Mills) 59% (6W-8% 7W-53% 8W-94% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Cardinal (Middlefield) 55% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-64% 8W-97% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Manchester (Akron) 42% (4W-1% 5W-9% 6W-63% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Northwestern (West Salem) 34% (6W-3% 7W-37% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Liberty (Youngstown) 26% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-45% 8W-94% 9W-100% )
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 20% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-21% 7W-80% 8W-100% )
Sandy Valley (Magnolia) 17% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-74% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Orrville 7% (4W-4% 5W-61% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
Girard 6% (5W-3% 6W-44% 7W-98% )
Fairview (Fairview Park) 5% (4W-1% 5W-5% 6W-44% 7W-94% )
Beachwood 5% (6W-5% 7W-72% 8W-100% )
Lutheran West (Rocky River) 4% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-59% 8W-100% )
Garfield (Garrettsville) 4% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-71% 8W-100% )
Black River (Sullivan) 3% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-46% )
Edgewood (Ashtabula) 2% (5W-1% 6W-20% )

Region 14 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.40)
Genoa Area (Genoa) 99% (7W-87% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 99% (6W-95% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
North Union (Richwood) 97% (7W-28% 8W-72% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 90% (5W-6% 6W-16% 7W-49% 8W-97% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 73% (5W-10% 6W-51% 7W-95% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 73% (5W-9% 6W-47% 7W-87% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Clearview (Lorain) 49% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-46% 8W-88% 9W-99% )
Huron 46% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-46% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Upper Sandusky 41% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-47% 8W-92% 9W-100% )
Kenton 38% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-81% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Clear Fork (Bellville) 36% (4W-1% 5W-22% 6W-80% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Oak Harbor 27% (6W-1% 7W-30% 8W-89% 9W-100% )
Galion 14% (6W-1% 7W-15% 8W-79% 9W-100% )
Edison (Milan) 6% (6W-2% 7W-40% 8W-94% 9W-100% )
Wellington 4% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-76% )
Eastwood (Pemberville) 2% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-89% )
Ontario (Mansfield) 2% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-87% )

Region 15 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.86)
Martins Ferry 99% (6W-67% 7W-89% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
St Clairsville 99% (6W-52% 7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Ironton 98% (4W-69% 5W-99% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 88% (4W-3% 5W-53% 6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 82% (5W-2% 6W-36% 7W-91% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Minford 76% (5W-4% 6W-20% 7W-68% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Harrison Central (Cadiz) 44% (5W-1% 6W-13% 7W-65% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Zane Trace (Chillicothe) 41% (4W-1% 5W-9% 6W-61% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Piketon 40% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-49% 8W-96% 9W-100% )
Fairland (Proctorville) 29% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-37% 8W-94% 9W-100% )
Coshocton 21% (4W-1% 5W-23% 6W-87% 7W-100% )
Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 19% (4W-1% 5W-8% 6W-57% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Bloom-Carroll (Carroll) 19% (4W-1% 5W-5% 6W-49% 7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Unioto (Chillicothe) 12% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-64% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Heath 10% (5W-2% 6W-26% 7W-87% 8W-100% )
Chesapeake 6% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-61% 8W-98% )
Utica 3% (4W-1% 5W-4% 6W-48% 7W-98% )
Portsmouth 3% (4W-1% 5W-14% 6W-77% 7W-100% )
Wellston 3% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-47% 8W-95% )
Meigs (Pomeroy) 3% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-77% 8W-100% )
Edison (Richmond) 2% (4W-1% 5W-5% 6W-65% 7W-100% )

Region 16 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.20)
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 100% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-94% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Westfall (Williamsport) 97% (5W-14% 6W-70% 7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 92% (5W-5% 6W-52% 7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Waynesville 81% (6W-5% 7W-62% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Badin (Hamilton) 55% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-79% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Madeira (Cincinnati) 54% (6W-3% 7W-19% 8W-67% 9W-99% )
Milton-Union (West Milton) 53% (6W-9% 7W-70% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Brookville 32% (5W-2% 6W-24% 7W-83% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Batavia 31% (7W-4% 8W-29% 9W-85% 10W-99% )
Blanchester 29% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-82% 8W-100% )
Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) 23% (5W-1% 6W-15% 7W-77% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Carlisle 18% (6W-1% 7W-7% 8W-70% 9W-100% )
Norwood 14% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-65% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Madison (Middletown) 7% (5W-1% 6W-2% 7W-64% 8W-100% )
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 6% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-94% )
Shroder (Cincinnati) 6% (6W-1% 7W-3% 8W-52% 9W-99% )
Valley View (Germantown) 2% (5W-16% 6W-86% )

Region 17 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 15.10)
Kirtland 99% (7W-73% 8W-97% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Crestview (Columbiana) 99% (7W-26% 8W-81% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 98% (6W-43% 7W-92% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 94% (5W-20% 6W-27% 7W-70% 8W-96% 9W-99% )
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 93% (6W-21% 7W-72% 8W-98% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Ursuline (Youngstown) 92% (4W-16% 5W-75% 6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 59% (6W-1% 7W-16% 8W-67% 9W-98% )
Independence 42% (6W-3% 7W-38% 8W-92% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Columbiana 34% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-41% 9W-91% )
Bellaire 25% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-39% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Southern (Salineville) 16% (7W-1% 8W-28% 9W-89% )
Memorial (Campbell) 16% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-62% 8W-99% )
United (Hanoverton) 10% (7W-1% 8W-13% 9W-87% )
St Peter Chanel (Bedford) 8% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-51% 9W-98% )
Barnesville 6% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-41% 9W-96% )
Berkshire (Burton) 3% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-74% 8W-93% )
Fort Frye (Beverly) 2% (6W-1% 7W-3% 8W-22% 9W-85% )

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 14.50)
Northwood 99% (8W-85% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 99% (6W-11% 7W-80% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Liberty Center 95% (6W-8% 7W-70% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 84% (6W-2% 7W-27% 8W-96% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Archbold 70% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-67% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 50% (7W-2% 8W-34% 9W-99% )
Western Reserve (Collins) 49% (6W-1% 7W-10% 8W-66% 9W-99% )
Hicksville 47% (6W-1% 7W-32% 8W-99% )
Carey 43% (6W-2% 7W-33% 8W-92% 9W-100% )
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 36% (5W-1% 6W-6% 7W-58% 8W-99% )
Seneca East (Attica) 30% (7W-2% 8W-32% 9W-92% 10W-100% )
Columbia (Columbia Station) 28% (6W-2% 7W-29% 8W-89% 9W-99% )
Jefferson (Delphos) 16% (7W-2% 8W-50% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Columbus Grove 15% (6W-1% 7W-22% 8W-93% 9W-100% )
Tinora (Defiance) 12% (8W-3% 9W-78% )
Fairview (Sherwood) 9% (7W-1% 8W-13% 9W-95% )
Woodmore (Elmore) 6% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-45% 8W-98% )
Evergreen (Metamora) 6% (6W-2% 7W-38% 8W-99% )
Spencerville 2% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-73% )

Region 19 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.97)
Loudonville 99% (5W-20% 6W-79% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Wynford (Bucyrus) 98% (6W-11% 7W-80% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Oak Hill 95% (5W-7% 6W-61% 7W-97% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Valley (Lucasville) 94% (7W-20% 8W-74% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
East Knox (Howard) 83% (4W-1% 5W-12% 6W-65% 7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 83% (6W-6% 7W-59% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Wheelersburg 75% (5W-2% 6W-34% 7W-95% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 29% (6W-1% 7W-18% 8W-88% 9W-100% )
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 27% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-65% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Crestview (Ashland) 18% (5W-1% 6W-5% 7W-37% 8W-91% )
Fredericktown 17% (5W-2% 6W-24% 7W-86% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 14% (5W-1% 6W-26% 7W-90% 8W-100% )
Crooksville 13% (5W-1% 6W-23% 7W-87% 8W-100% )
Bucyrus 13% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-31% 7W-88% 8W-100% )
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 11% (5W-1% 6W-22% 7W-84% )
Centerburg 10% (5W-1% 6W-7% 7W-61% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Federal Hocking (Stewart) 7% (6W-1% 7W-6% 8W-40% 9W-99% )
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 7% (6W-1% 7W-4% 8W-62% 9W-100% )
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 3% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-12% 8W-65% )
Smithville 2% (6W-1% 7W-37% 8W-100% )

Region 20 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 13.98)
Coldwater 99% (6W-68% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 96% (7W-26% 8W-66% 9W-98% 10W-100% )
Covington 94% (7W-6% 8W-59% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Pleasant (Marion) 71% (6W-1% 7W-19% 8W-76% 9W-99% )
Dayton Christian (Miamisburg) 63% (7W-1% 8W-15% 9W-61% 10W-95% )
Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) 61% (6W-1% 7W-13% 8W-65% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Madison Plains (London) 60% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-61% 8W-96% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Anna 58% (5W-1% 6W-10% 7W-59% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Dixie (New Lebanon) 55% (6W-1% 7W-20% 8W-88% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
West Jefferson 48% (6W-1% 7W-16% 8W-87% 9W-100% )
Miami East (Casstown) 30% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-23% 8W-92% 9W-100% )
Paint Valley (Bainbridge) 29% (5W-2% 6W-25% 7W-85% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Triad (North Lewisburg) 14% (6W-1% 7W-8% 8W-52% 9W-100% )
Adena (Frankfort) 7% (5W-1% 6W-23% 7W-91% 8W-100% )
Clark Montessori (Cincinnati) 4% (6W-1% 7W-7% 8W-66% 9W-100% )
Elgin (Marion) 4% (6W-1% 7W-26% 8W-97% )
Mariemont (Cincinnati) 3% (5W-1% 6W-8% 7W-63% 8W-100% )

Region 21 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 11.00)
Mogadore 100% (7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Malvern 99% (6W-98% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Shadyside 99% (7W-90% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
John F Kennedy (Warren) 98% (5W-33% 6W-83% 7W-99% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 81% (5W-19% 6W-76% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Fairport Harding (Fairport Harbor) 81% (4W-5% 5W-36% 6W-87% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Wellsville 56% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-75% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 44% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-26% 7W-91% 8W-100% )
Catholic Central (Steubenville) 38% (4W-2% 5W-24% 6W-72% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Conotton Valley (Bowerston) 27% (5W-1% 6W-11% 7W-45% 8W-86% 9W-99% )
Tuscarawas Central Catholic (New Philadelphia) 24% (5W-1% 6W-12% 7W-59% 8W-97% 9W-100% )
St John Central (Bellaire) 21% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-15% 7W-50% 8W-84% 9W-99% )
Leetonia 5% (5W-1% 6W-13% 7W-70% 8W-96% )
Newbury 5% (5W-1% 6W-21% 7W-78% 8W-100% )
East Canton 4% (4W-1% 5W-15% 6W-70% 7W-100% )
Dalton 4% (4W-1% 5W-2% 6W-25% 7W-98% )
Strasburg-Franklin (Strasburg) 3% (4W-2% 5W-27% 6W-89% )
Mineral Ridge 3% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-25% 7W-78% )
Mc Donald 2% (5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-66% )
Ledgemont (Thompson) 2% (5W-1% 6W-13% 7W-60% )

Region 22 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 8.95)
Mc Comb 99% (7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Leipsic 99% (6W-77% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
St John’S (Delphos) 96% (4W-38% 5W-92% 6W-99% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Edon 84% (5W-2% 6W-37% 7W-92% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Crestview (Convoy) 77% (4W-5% 5W-29% 6W-86% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Calvert (Tiffin) 71% (4W-21% 5W-86% 6W-100% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Arlington 66% (5W-7% 6W-45% 7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
St Paul (Norwalk) 43% (4W-2% 5W-22% 6W-79% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 40% (4W-1% 5W-18% 6W-74% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Arcadia 23% (5W-3% 6W-38% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Ayersville (Defiance) 21% (4W-1% 5W-5% 6W-46% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 20% (4W-1% 5W-5% 6W-51% 7W-99% )
Hilltop (West Unity) 17% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-74% 8W-100% )
Mohawk (Sycamore) 11% (4W-3% 5W-46% 6W-97% 7W-100% )
Toledo Christian (Toledo) 9% (5W-5% 6W-48% 7W-99% )
Pandora-Gilboa (Pandora) 7% (4W-1% 5W-4% 6W-70% 7W-100% )
Montpelier 6% (4W-4% 5W-47% 6W-96% )
Monroeville 4% (4W-6% 5W-56% 6W-100% 7W-100% )
Edgerton 3% (4W-1% 5W-39% 6W-98% )
Cardinal Stritch (Oregon) 2% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-49% 7W-100% )

Region 23 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.30)
Trimble (Glouster) 99% (6W-78% 7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) 99% (6W-74% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 83% (4W-8% 5W-58% 6W-95% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
River (Hannibal) 76% (5W-9% 6W-34% 7W-79% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 71% (5W-4% 6W-47% 7W-96% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Sciotoville Community (Portsmouth) 70% (5W-7% 6W-54% 7W-95% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Notre Dame (Portsmouth) 60% (5W-1% 6W-16% 7W-60% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Newark Catholic (Newark) 58% (4W-4% 5W-44% 6W-92% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Harvest Preparatory (Canal Winchester) 56% (4W-1% 5W-3% 6W-52% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Grove City Christian (Grove City) 25% (5W-1% 6W-4% 7W-41% 8W-95% 9W-100% )
Danville 25% (4W-2% 5W-34% 6W-92% 7W-100% 8W-100% )
Mapleton (Ashland) 21% (5W-1% 6W-17% 7W-68% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Fairfield Christian Academy (Lancaster) 17% (5W-1% 6W-3% 7W-31% 8W-86% 9W-100% )
Eastern (Reedsville) 14% (4W-1% 5W-11% 6W-61% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Plymouth 9% (4W-1% 5W-7% 6W-50% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Waterford 7% (5W-1% 6W-22% 7W-83% 8W-100% )
Lucas 3% (4W-1% 5W-5% 6W-47% 7W-98% )

Region 24 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 10.65)
Ada 99% (6W-27% 7W-76% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 99% (5W-24% 6W-89% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Minster 97% (5W-33% 6W-91% 7W-100% 8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Fort Loramie 89% (5W-2% 6W-30% 7W-83% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Bradford 86% (5W-10% 6W-38% 7W-82% 8W-99% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
St Henry 71% (4W-9% 5W-39% 6W-84% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 66% (4W-1% 5W-9% 6W-54% 7W-98% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Southeastern Local (South Charleston) 55% (4W-1% 5W-8% 6W-42% 7W-86% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 50% (4W-2% 5W-23% 6W-82% 7W-100% )
Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) 32% (4W-1% 5W-6% 6W-46% 7W-96% 8W-100% )
Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 18% (4W-5% 5W-46% 6W-98% 7W-100% )
Oyler (Cincinnati) 13% (4W-1% 5W-15% 6W-56% 7W-97% )
Cedarville 8% (4W-4% 5W-28% 6W-87% 7W-100% )
Riverview East Academy (Cincinnati) 6% (4W-1% 5W-14% 6W-68% )
Jefferson Township (Dayton) 3% (4W-1% 5W-10% 6W-57% 7W-100% )
Arcanum 3% (4W-1% 5W-1% 6W-9% 7W-63% )
Lockland 2% (5W-1% 6W-14% 7W-84% )
Ridgemont (Ridgeway) 2% (6W-1% 7W-1% 8W-6% 9W-37% )

_______________________________________________________________________

We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

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