The Fantastic 50: Who is Ohio’s top team and Who wins this Week?

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Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

Who wins state titles? Who is
the state’s No. 1 team? Here’s who the computers and the Drew Pasteur Fantastic
50

formula favors…One last time…


It’s Week 15…Who is No. 1? Who is favored? Who wins titles?

Regional/State Title Odds

(At the start of the Playoffs)

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This Week’s Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50  
*Teams still alive in
the playoffs.

1) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (10-4, D1 R4) 164.9
*2) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (12-2, D1 R1) 160.4
*3) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (11-2, D1 R3) 160.1
4) St Edward (Lakewood) (8-4, D1 R1) 159.5
5) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-4, D1 R4) 158.5
6) Mentor (11-2, D1 R1) 152.4
7) Whitmer (Toledo) (13-1, D1 R2) 152.1
8) Colerain (Cincinnati) (10-2, D1 R4) 151.7
*9) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (14-0, D2 R8) 150.7
10) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (11-1, D1 R3) 149.9
11) Middletown (10-2, D1 R4) 149.3
*12) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (10-3, D3 R11) 148.4
*13) Kenton (14-0, D4 R14) 146.5
14) Steubenville (11-1, D3 R11) 144.8
15) Solon (10-2, D1 R1) 144.7
16) Lincoln (Gahanna) (9-3, D1 R3) 144.3
17) Chagrin Falls (13-1, D3 R9) 143.9
*18) Avon (13-1, D2 R6) 143.2
19) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (9-3, D1 R2) 142.6
*20) Shawnee (Springfield) (14-0, D3 R12) 141.8
21) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-8, D1 R4) 141.4
22) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (10-2, D3 R9) 141.1
23) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (11-1, D4 R14) 140.9
24) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (8-2, D1 R3) 140.8
25) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (6-3, D1 R1) 140.6
26) Ursuline (Youngstown) (4-6, D5 R17) 140.6
27) Aurora (12-2, D2 R5) 140.4
28) Centerville (7-4, D1 R4) 140.1
29) Kings (Kings Mills) (12-1, D2 R8) 139.7
30) Mason (7-4, D1 R4) 139.4
*31) Kirtland (14-0, D5 R17) 139.4
32) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (10-2, D2 R5) 138.7
33) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (7-4, D3 R10) 138.2
34) Glenoak (Canton) (9-2, D1 R2) 138.1
35) Upper Arlington (Columbus) (9-3, D1 R3) 137.8
36) Cleveland Heights (9-1, D1 R1) 137.6
37) Boardman (Youngstown) (7-4, D1 R1) 137.5
38) Wadsworth (11-2, D1 R2) 137.5
39) Troy (8-3, D1 R3) 137.3
40) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (12-1, D3 R12) 136.8
41) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (13-1, D2 R7) 136.4
*42) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (12-2, D6 R24) 136.4
43) Twinsburg (7-3, D1 R2) 136.2
44) La Salle (Cincinnati) (7-3, D1 R4) 136.0
45) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (10-3, D3 R9) 135.4
46) Sycamore (Cincinnati) (8-3, D1 R4) 135.3
47) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (7-3, D1 R2) 134.9
48) Wayne (Huber Heights) (6-4, D1 R4) 134.8
*49) Coldwater (11-3, D5 R20) 134.8
50) St John’s (Delphos) (10-4, D6 R22) 134.2
—-
*65) Norwayne (Creston) (13-1, D4 R13) 130.4
*247) Buckeye Central (New Washington) (12-2, D6 R24) 110.7

Division I Rankings
1) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (10-4) 164.9
2) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (12-2) 160.4
3) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (11-2) 160.1
4) St Edward (Lakewood) (8-4) 159.5
5) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-4) 158.5
6) Mentor (11-2) 152.4
7) Whitmer (Toledo) (13-1) 152.1
8) Colerain (Cincinnati) (10-2) 151.7
9) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (11-1) 149.9
10) Middletown (10-2) 149.3
11) Solon (10-2) 144.7
12) Lincoln (Gahanna) (9-3) 144.3
13) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (9-3) 142.6
14) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-8) 141.4
15) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (8-2) 140.8

Division II Rankings
1) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (14-0) 150.7
2) Avon (13-1) 143.2
3) Aurora (12-2) 140.4
4) Kings (Kings Mills) (12-1) 139.7
5) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (10-2) 138.7
6) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (13-1) 136.4
7) Tri-Valley (Dresden) (11-2) 133.3
8) Wapakoneta (10-2) 133.3
9) Tallmadge (9-3) 133.3
10) Central Catholic (Toledo) (8-4) 131.2
11) Harrison (7-4) 129.9
12) Columbian (Tiffin) (10-3) 128.0
13) New Albany (9-3) 127.7
14) Maple Heights (8-2) 127.3
15) Roosevelt (Kent) (10-2) 127.2

Division III Rankings
1) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (10-3) 148.4
2) Steubenville (11-1) 144.8
3) Chagrin Falls (13-1) 143.9
4) Shawnee (Springfield) (14-0) 141.8
5) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (10-2) 141.1
6) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (7-4) 138.2
7) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (12-1) 136.8
8) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (10-3) 135.4
9) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (10-1) 133.8
10) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (10-2) 133.3
11) Elida (10-4) 133.2
12) Dover (11-2) 132.2
13) Minerva (11-1) 129.9
14) Ravenna (9-3) 129.1
15) Jackson (11-1) 128.5

Division IV Rankings
1) Kenton (14-0) 146.5
2) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (11-1) 140.9
3) Eastwood (Pemberville) (11-1) 130.5
4) Norwayne (Creston) (13-1) 130.4
5) Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) (9-4) 127.9
6) Genoa Area (Genoa) (10-2) 127.8
7) Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) (13-1) 126.4
8) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (11-3) 125.4
9) Waynesville (11-1) 124.9
10) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (8-3) 124.8
11) Coshocton (10-3) 124.2
12) Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) (8-2) 123.5
13) Girard (11-2) 123.3
14) Orrville (8-4) 119.4
15) Ironton (7-5) 118.1

Division V Rankings
1) Ursuline (Youngstown) (4-6) 140.6
2) Kirtland (14-0) 139.4
3) Coldwater (11-3) 134.8
4) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (10-1) 128.9
5) Hicksville (11-3) 126.8
6) Wynford (Bucyrus) (13-1) 126.7
7) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (10-3) 124.5
8) Crestview (Columbiana) (11-2) 123.5
9) Versailles (9-3) 123.5
10) Valley (Lucasville) (12-1) 123.3
11) Liberty Center (11-1) 122.2
12) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (10-2) 121.7
13) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (10-1) 121.5
14) Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) (10-2) 118.6
15) Hillsdale (Jeromesville) (9-1) 117.5

Division VI Rankings
1) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (12-2) 136.4
2) St John’s (Delphos) (10-4) 134.2
3) Minster (9-4) 127.1
4) Leipsic (11-2) 125.9
5) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (13-1) 117.1
6) Mc Comb (8-4) 113.6
7) Ada (9-3) 113.0
8) Fort Loramie (10-2) 111.2
9) Buckeye Central (New Washington) (12-2) 110.7
10) Catholic Central (Springfield) (8-3) 109.3
11) Calvert (Tiffin) (9-3) 108.9
12) Malvern (10-2) 108.9
13) Edgerton (8-3) 108.4
14) Shadyside (9-4) 107.1
15) Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) (10-2) 105.4

This Week’s
Game Predictions

PREDICTIONS FOR THE STATE FINALS (78% correct in the playoffs, so far)

Division I
#2 St Ignatius (Cleveland) (12-2) by 1 (51%) vs #3 Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (11-2)

Division II
#9 Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (14-0) by 7 (68%) vs #18 Avon (13-1)

Division III
#12 Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (10-3) by 7 (66%) vs #20 Shawnee (Springfield) (14-0)

Division IV
#13 Kenton (14-0) by 16 (85%) vs Norwayne (Creston) (13-1)

Division V
#31 Kirtland (14-0) by 5 (62%) vs #49 Coldwater (11-3)

Division VI
#42 Marion Local (Maria Stein) (12-2) by 25 (94%) vs Buckeye Central (New Washington) (12-2)

Prediction Results  (Back to top)
Week #1: 240-107 (69.2%)
Week #2: 267-75 (78.1%)
Week #3: 277-69 (80.1%)
Week #4: 277-68 (80.3%)
Week #5: 284-65 (81.4%)
Week #6: 292-59 (83.2%)
Week #7: 293-55 (84.2%)
Week #8: 293-57 (83.7%)
Week #9: 293-58 (83.5%)
Week #10: 293-59 (83.2%)
First Round: 82-14 (85.4%)
Second Round: 35-13 (72.9%)
Regional Finals: 18-6 (75.0%)
State Semifinals: 6-6 (50.0%)

Pick details, after week #14
Season: 2950-711 (80.6%)
Within 7 points: 1220 (33.3%)
Within 3 points: 600 (16.4%)
Winner & exact margin: 89 (2.4%)
Avg. error on scores: 13.86 pts.

Week #4 onward: 2166-460 (82.5%)


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THE FANTASTIC 50

We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or
strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew
Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where
he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina
version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine
years and has recently made a push in that stae to change the way it
selects postseason participants.

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