The Fantastic 50: Who is Ohio’s top team, Who wins this Week and Who wins Regional/State Titles

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Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

Who wins regional titles? Who wins state titles? Who is the state’s No. 1 team? Who is favored to win this
weekend?
Here’s who the computers and the Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50

formula favors…


It’s Week 13…Who is No. 1? Who is favored? Who wins titles?

This Week’s
Regional/State Title Odds

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This Week’s Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50  
1) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (9-3, D1 R4) 164.6
2) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-3, D1 R4) 159.7
3) St Edward (Lakewood) (8-4, D1 R1) 158.3
4) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (10-2, D1 R1) 156.5
5) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (11-0, D1 R3) 153.8
6) Mentor (11-1, D1 R1) 153.2
7) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (9-2, D1 R3) 153.1
8) Whitmer (Toledo) (12-0, D1 R2) 152.7
9) Colerain (Cincinnati) (10-2, D1 R4) 151.6
10) Middletown (10-2, D1 R4) 149.4
11) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (12-0, D2 R8) 148.8
12) Solon (10-2, D1 R1) 145.2
13) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (8-3, D3 R11) 144.9
14) Chagrin Falls (12-0, D3 R9) 144.5
15) Kenton (12-0, D4 R14) 144.0
16) Steubenville (11-1, D3 R11) 143.8
17) Aurora (11-1, D2 R5) 143.1
18) Kings (Kings Mills) (12-0, D2 R8) 142.6
19) Lincoln (Gahanna) (9-3, D1 R3) 142.3
20) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (9-3, D1 R2) 142.2
21) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (11-0, D4 R14) 142.2
22) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-8, D1 R4) 141.4
23) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (10-1, D2 R5) 141.3
24) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (12-0, D3 R12) 140.7
25) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (10-2, D3 R9) 140.6
26) Ursuline (Youngstown) (4-6, D5 R17) 140.2
27) Centerville (7-4, D1 R4) 139.8
28) Mason (7-4, D1 R4) 139.4
29) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (6-3, D1 R1) 139.2
30) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (8-2, D1 R3) 139.1
31) Upper Arlington (Columbus) (9-3, D1 R3) 139.0
32) Wadsworth (11-1, D1 R2) 138.9
33) Glenoak (Canton) (9-2, D1 R2) 138.1
34) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (7-4, D3 R10) 137.8
35) Troy (8-3, D1 R3) 137.4
36) Cleveland Heights (9-1, D1 R1) 137.3
37) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (10-2, D3 R9) 137.2
38) Boardman (Youngstown) (7-4, D1 R1) 136.9
39) Avon (11-1, D2 R6) 136.8
40) Twinsburg (7-3, D1 R2) 136.7
41) Tri-Valley (Dresden) (11-1, D2 R7) 136.3
42) La Salle (Cincinnati) (7-3, D1 R4) 136.0
43) Sycamore (Cincinnati) (8-3, D1 R4) 135.4
44) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (7-3, D1 R2) 134.7
45) Wayne (Huber Heights) (6-4, D1 R4) 134.5
46) Tallmadge (9-3, D2 R5) 134.1
47) Dover (11-1, D3 R11) 134.0
48) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (10-1, D3 R12) 133.8
49) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (8-3, D1 R3) 133.7
50) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (12-0, D2 R7) 133.7

Division I Rankings  
1) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (9-3) 164.6
2) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-3) 159.7
3) St Edward (Lakewood) (8-4) 158.3
4) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (10-2) 156.5
5) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (11-0) 153.8
6) Mentor (11-1) 153.2
7) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (9-2) 153.1
8) Whitmer (Toledo) (12-0) 152.7
9) Colerain (Cincinnati) (10-2) 151.6
10) Middletown (10-2) 149.4
11) Solon (10-2) 145.2
12) Lincoln (Gahanna) (9-3) 142.3
13) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (9-3) 142.2
14) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-8) 141.4
15) Centerville (7-4) 139.8

Division II Rankings
1) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (12-0) 148.8
2) Aurora (11-1) 143.1
3) Kings (Kings Mills) (12-0) 142.6
4) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (10-1) 141.3
5) Avon (11-1) 136.8
6) Tri-Valley (Dresden) (11-1) 136.3
7) Tallmadge (9-3) 134.1
8) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (12-0) 133.7
9) Wapakoneta (10-2) 132.1
10) Harrison (7-4) 130.8
11) Central Catholic (Toledo) (8-4) 129.9
12) Columbian (Tiffin) (10-2) 129.0
13) New Albany (9-3) 128.2
14) Roosevelt (Kent) (10-2) 127.7
15) Sandusky (9-2) 127.3

Division III Rankings
1) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (8-3) 144.9
2) Chagrin Falls (12-0) 144.5
3) Steubenville (11-1) 143.8
4) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (12-0) 140.7
5) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (10-2) 140.6
6) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (7-4) 137.8
7) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (10-2) 137.2
8) Dover (11-1) 134.0
9) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (10-1) 133.8
10) Shawnee (Springfield) (12-0) 133.5
11) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (10-2) 132.0
12) Elida (9-3) 131.7
13) Minerva (11-1) 130.3
14) Jackson (11-1) 129.8
15) Ravenna (9-3) 129.4

Division IV Rankings
1) Kenton (12-0) 144.0
2) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (11-0) 142.2
3) Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) (12-0) 132.1
4) Eastwood (Pemberville) (11-1) 131.1
5) Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) (9-3) 128.8
6) Genoa Area (Genoa) (10-2) 127.6
7) Coshocton (10-2) 126.0
8) Waynesville (11-1) 124.9
9) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (10-2) 124.9
10) Norwayne (Creston) (11-1) 124.8
11) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (8-3) 124.1
12) Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) (8-2) 123.8
13) Girard (11-1) 122.9
14) Ironton (7-5) 120.1
15) Orrville (8-4) 118.8

Division V Rankings
1) Ursuline (Youngstown) (4-6) 140.2
2) Kirtland (12-0) 131.0
3) Coldwater (9-3) 130.3
4) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (10-2) 130.2
5) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (10-1) 128.5
6) Valley (Lucasville) (12-0) 126.1
7) Wynford (Bucyrus) (12-0) 126.1
8) Crestview (Columbiana) (11-1) 125.0
9) Hicksville (10-2) 124.7
10) Liberty Center (11-1) 124.5
11) Versailles (9-3) 121.8
12) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (10-2) 121.7
13) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (10-1) 121.1
14) Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) (10-2) 119.3
15) Archbold (7-3) 116.7

Division VI Rankings
1) St John’s (Delphos) (9-3) 133.0
2) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (10-2) 129.6
3) Leipsic (11-1) 127.6
4) Minster (9-3) 127.4
5) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (12-0) 117.0
6) Mc Comb (8-4) 114.1
7) Ada (9-3) 112.1
8) Fort Loramie (10-2) 111.2
9) Shadyside (9-3) 110.1
10) Malvern (10-2) 109.1
11) Calvert (Tiffin) (9-3) 108.8
12) Catholic Central (Springfield) (8-3) 108.6
13) Edgerton (8-3) 108.2
14) Buckeye Central (New Washington) (10-2) 107.0
15) Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) (10-2) 106.0

This Week’s
Game Predictions

PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK 13 GAMES

Region 1
#4 St Ignatius (Cleveland) (10-2) by 3 (58%) vs #6 Mentor (11-1)

Region 2
#8 Whitmer (Toledo) (12-0) by 14 (81%) vs #32 Wadsworth (11-1)

Region 3
#5 Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (11-0) by 1 (52%) vs #7 Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (9-2)

Region 4
#1 St Xavier (Cincinnati) (9-3) by 5 (62%) vs #2 Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-3)

Region 5
#17 Aurora (11-1) by 2 (54%) vs #23 Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (10-1)

Region 6
#39 Avon (11-1) by 8 (69%) vs Columbian (Tiffin) (10-2)

Region 7
#41 Tri-Valley (Dresden) (11-1) by 3 (57%) vs #50 Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (12-0)

Region 8
#11 Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (12-0) by 6 (65%) vs #18 Kings (Kings Mills) (12-0)

Region 9
#14 Chagrin Falls (12-0) by 7 (68%) vs #37 St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (10-2)

Region 10
Elida (9-3) by 4 (60%) vs Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) (10-2)

Region 11
#13 Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (8-3) by 11 (75%) vs #47 Dover (11-1)

Region 12
#24 Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (12-0) by 7 (67%) vs Shawnee (Springfield) (12-0)

Region 13
Norwayne (Creston) (11-1) by 2 (55%) vs Girard (11-1)

Region 14
#15 Kenton (12-0) by 2 (54%) vs #21 Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (11-0)

Region 15
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) (12-0) by 6 (65%) vs Coshocton (10-2)

Region 16
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) (9-3) by 4 (60%) vs Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (10-2)

Region 17
Kirtland (12-0) by 6 (65%) vs Crestview (Columbiana) (11-1)

Region 18
Patrick Henry (Hamler) (10-2) by 6 (63%) vs Hicksville (10-2)

Region 19
Valley (Lucasville) (12-0) by 1 (50%) vs Wynford (Bucyrus) (12-0)

Region 20
Coldwater (9-3) by 16 (84%) vs West Jefferson (10-2)

Region 21
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (12-0) by 7 (67%) vs Shadyside (9-3)

Region 22
St John’S (Delphos) (9-3) by 5 (63%) vs Leipsic (11-1)

Region 23
Buckeye Central (New Washington) (10-2) by 11 (75%) vs Beallsville (10-2)

Region 24
Marion Local (Maria Stein) (10-2) by 2 (55%) vs Minster (9-3)

Prediction Results  
Week #1: 240-107 (69.2%)
Week #2: 267-75 (78.1%)
Week #3: 277-69 (80.1%)
Week #4: 277-68 (80.3%)
Week #5: 284-65 (81.4%)
Week #6: 292-59 (83.2%)
Week #7: 293-55 (84.2%)
Week #8: 293-57 (83.7%)
Week #9: 293-58 (83.5%)
Week #10: 293-59 (83.2%)
First Round: 82-14 (85.4%)
Second Round: 35-13 (72.9%)

Pick details, after week #10
Season: 2891-686 (80.8%)
Within 7 points: 1195 (33.4%)
Within 3 points: 591 (16.5%)
Winner & exact margin: 88 (2.5%)
Avg. error on scores: 13.85 pts.

Week #4 onward: 2107-435 (82.9%)

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THE FANTASTIC 50

We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or
strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew
Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where
he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina
version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine
years and has recently made a push in that stae to change the way it
selects postseason participants.

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