The Fantastic 50: Who is Ohio’s top team, Who wins this Week and Who wins Regional/State Titles

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Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

Who wins regional titles? Who wins state titles? Who is the state’s No. 1 team? Who is favored to win this
weekend?
Here’s who the computers and the Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50

formula favors…


It’s Week 12…Who is No. 1? Who is favored? Who wins titles?

This Week’s
Regional/State Title Odds

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This Week’s Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 
1) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (8-3, D1 R4) 162.6
2) St Edward (Lakewood) (8-3, D1 R1) 158.7
3) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (8-3, D1 R4) 157.6
4) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (9-2, D1 R1) 153.8
5) Colerain (Cincinnati) (10-1, D1 R4) 153.6
6) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (10-0, D1 R3) 153.0
7) Mentor (10-1, D1 R1) 152.7
8) Middletown (10-1, D1 R4) 151.2
9) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (8-2, D1 R3) 150.6
10) Whitmer (Toledo) (11-0, D1 R2) 148.4
11) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (11-0, D2 R8) 147.2
12) Steubenville (11-0, D3 R11) 146.3
13) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (10-1, D3 R9) 145.1
14) Solon (10-1, D1 R1) 144.8
15) Lincoln (Gahanna) (9-2, D1 R3) 144.5
16) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (9-2, D1 R2) 144.3
17) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (7-3, D3 R11) 143.7
18) Kenton (11-0, D4 R14) 142.4
19) Kings (Kings Mills) (11-0, D2 R8) 141.8
20) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (7-3, D3 R10) 141.5
21) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-8, D1 R4) 141.3
22) Chagrin Falls (11-0, D3 R9) 140.7
23) Ursuline (Youngstown) (4-6, D5 R17) 139.9
24) Centerville (7-4, D1 R4) 139.9
25) Mason (7-4, D1 R4) 139.8
26) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (9-1, D2 R5) 139.7
27) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (8-2, D1 R3) 139.4
28) Upper Arlington (Columbus) (9-2, D1 R3) 139.0
29) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (10-0, D4 R14) 138.9
30) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (6-3, D1 R1) 138.5
31) Aurora (10-1, D2 R5) 138.5
32) Cleveland Heights (9-1, D1 R1) 138.3
33) Glenoak (Canton) (9-2, D1 R2) 138.3
34) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (11-0, D3 R12) 137.9
35) Boardman (Youngstown) (7-4, D1 R1) 137.3
36) La Salle (Cincinnati) (7-3, D1 R4) 137.1
37) Troy (8-3, D1 R3) 136.9
38) Wadsworth (10-1, D1 R2) 136.5
39) Tallmadge (9-2, D2 R5) 136.3
40) Twinsburg (7-3, D1 R2) 136.2
41) Sycamore (Cincinnati) (8-3, D1 R4) 135.6
42) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (7-3, D1 R2) 135.6
43) Wayne (Huber Heights) (6-4, D1 R4) 134.7
44) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (10-1, D3 R12) 134.0
45) Avon (10-1, D2 R6) 133.9
46) Findlay (9-2, D1 R2) 133.9
47) Hudson (10-1, D1 R2) 133.7
48) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (10-1, D3 R12) 133.6
49) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (8-3, D1 R3) 133.5
50) Jackson (11-0, D3 R12) 133.4

Division I Rankings 
1) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (8-3) 162.6
2) St Edward (Lakewood) (8-3) 158.7
3) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (8-3) 157.6
4) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (9-2) 153.8
5) Colerain (Cincinnati) (10-1) 153.6
6) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (10-0) 153.0
7) Mentor (10-1) 152.7
8) Middletown (10-1) 151.2
9) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (8-2) 150.6
10) Whitmer (Toledo) (11-0) 148.4
11) Solon (10-1) 144.8
12) Lincoln (Gahanna) (9-2) 144.5
13) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (9-2) 144.3
14) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-8) 141.3
15) Centerville (7-4) 139.9

Division II Rankings
1) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (11-0) 147.2
2) Kings (Kings Mills) (11-0) 141.8
3) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (9-1) 139.7
4) Aurora (10-1) 138.5
5) Tallmadge (9-2) 136.3
6) Avon (10-1) 133.9
7) Central Catholic (Toledo) (8-3) 133.0
8) Wapakoneta (10-1) 132.1
9) New Albany (9-2) 131.6
10) Tri-Valley (Dresden) (10-1) 131.2
11) Roosevelt (Kent) (10-1) 130.8
12) Harrison (7-4) 130.8
13) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (11-0) 129.9
14) Maple Heights (8-2) 128.7
15) Big Walnut (Sunbury) (9-2) 128.2

Division III Rankings
1) Steubenville (11-0) 146.3
2) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (10-1) 145.1
3) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (7-3) 143.7
4) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (7-3) 141.5
5) Chagrin Falls (11-0) 140.7
6) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (11-0) 137.9
7) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (10-1) 134.0
8) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (10-1) 133.6
9) Jackson (11-0) 133.4
10) Minerva (11-0) 133.0
11) Ravenna (9-2) 132.5
12) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (9-2) 131.8
13) Dover (10-1) 131.3
14) Shawnee (Springfield) (11-0) 129.0
15) Elida (8-3) 128.6

Division IV Rankings
1) Kenton (11-0) 142.4
2) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (10-0) 138.9
3) Eastwood (Pemberville) (11-0) 133.0
4) Waynesville (11-0) 128.8
5) Genoa Area (Genoa) (10-1) 128.8
6) Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) (11-0) 127.6
7) Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) (8-3) 126.5
8) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (9-2) 124.6
9) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (8-3) 123.6
10) Coshocton (9-2) 123.5
11) Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) (8-2) 123.1
12) Ironton (7-4) 122.4
13) Girard (10-1) 121.7
14) Norwayne (Creston) (10-1) 121.1
15) Orrville (8-3) 120.8

Division V Rankings
1) Ursuline (Youngstown) (4-6) 139.9
2) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (10-1) 129.5
3) Kirtland (11-0) 128.7
4) Coldwater (8-3) 127.2
5) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (9-2) 127.1
6) Liberty Center (11-0) 127.0
7) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (10-1) 125.2
8) Valley (Lucasville) (11-0) 124.7
9) Wynford (Bucyrus) (11-0) 123.8
10) Versailles (9-2) 122.7
11) Crestview (Columbiana) (10-1) 121.6
12) Hicksville (9-2) 121.6
13) Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) (10-1) 120.5
14) Pleasant (Marion) (11-0) 120.4
15) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (10-1) 120.1

Division VI Rankings
1) St John’s (Delphos) (8-3) 131.7
2) Leipsic (10-1) 128.4
3) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (9-2) 127.1
4) Minster (8-3) 125.5
5) Mc Comb (8-3) 115.4
6) Ada (9-2) 113.6
7) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (11-0) 113.3
8) Fort Loramie (10-1) 112.8
9) Malvern (10-1) 111.4
10) Calvert (Tiffin) (9-2) 109.1
11) Shadyside (8-3) 109.0
12) Edgerton (8-3) 107.9
13) Catholic Central (Springfield) (8-3) 107.9
14) Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) (10-1) 107.2
15) Mogadore (7-4) 104.6

This Week’s
Game Predictions

PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK 12 GAMES

Region 1
#7 Mentor (10-1) by 8 (69%) vs #14 Solon (10-1)
#2 St Edward (Lakewood) (8-3) by 5 (62%) vs #4 St Ignatius (Cleveland) (9-2)

Region 2
#10 Whitmer (Toledo) (11-0) by 4 (60%) vs #16 Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (9-2)
#38 Wadsworth (10-1) by 3 (57%) vs #47 Hudson (10-1)

Region 3
#6 Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (10-0) by 14 (81%) vs #28 Upper Arlington (Columbus) (9-2)
#9 Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (8-2) by 6 (65%) vs #15 Lincoln (Gahanna) (9-2)

Region 4
#3 Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (8-3) by 6 (66%) vs #8 Middletown (10-1)
#1 St Xavier (Cincinnati) (8-3) by 9 (71%) vs #5 Colerain (Cincinnati) (10-1)

Region 5
#26 Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (9-1) by 9 (71%) vs Roosevelt (Kent) (10-1)
#31 Aurora (10-1) by 2 (55%) vs #39 Tallmadge (9-2)

Region 6
#45 Avon (10-1) by 1 (52%) vs Central Catholic (Toledo) (8-3)
Shaw (East Cleveland) (7-3) by 2 (54%) vs Columbian (Tiffin) (9-2)

Region 7
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (11-0) by 2 (54%) vs Big Walnut (Sunbury) (9-2)
New Albany (9-2) by 1 (51%) vs Tri-Valley (Dresden) (10-1)

Region 8
#11 Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (11-0) by 15 (83%) vs Wapakoneta (10-1)
#19 Kings (Kings Mills) (11-0) by 21 (90%) vs Turpin (Cincinnati) (8-3)

Region 9
#22 Chagrin Falls (11-0) by 8 (70%) vs Ravenna (9-2)
#13 Lake Catholic (Mentor) (10-1) by 13 (80%) vs St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (9-2)

Region 10
#20 St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (7-3) by 13 (79%) vs Elida (8-3)
Clyde (9-2) by 1 (53%) vs Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) (9-2)

Region 11
#12 Steubenville (11-0) by 3 (56%) vs #17 Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (7-3)
Minerva (11-0) by 2 (54%) vs Dover (10-1)

Region 12
#44 Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (10-1) by 5 (63%) vs Shawnee (Springfield) (11-0)
#34 Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (11-0) by 5 (61%) vs #50 Jackson (11-0)

Region 13
Girard (10-1) by 14 (81%) vs Black River (Sullivan) (9-2)
Norwayne (Creston) (10-1) by 1 (51%) vs Orrville (8-3)

Region 14
#18 Kenton (11-0) by 14 (80%) vs Genoa Area (Genoa) (10-1)
#29 Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (10-0) by 6 (65%) vs Eastwood (Pemberville) (11-0)

Region 15
Coshocton (9-2) by 7 (67%) vs St Clairsville (10-1)
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) (11-0) by 5 (63%) vs Ironton (7-4)

Region 16
Waynesville (11-0) by 2 (56%) vs Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) (8-3)
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (9-2) by 18 (87%) vs Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) (8-3)

Region 17
Kirtland (11-0) by 16 (84%) vs Garaway (Sugarcreek) (9-2)
Crestview (Columbiana) (10-1) by 3 (58%) vs St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) (7-4)

Region 18
Patrick Henry (Hamler) (9-2) by 1 (50%) vs Liberty Center (11-0)
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (10-1) by 4 (59%) vs Hicksville (9-2)

Region 19
Wynford (Bucyrus) (11-0) by 3 (58%) vs Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) (10-1)
Valley (Lucasville) (11-0) by 12 (78%) vs Crestview (Ashland) (11-0)

Region 20
Coldwater (8-3) by 5 (61%) vs Versailles (9-2)
Pleasant (Marion) (11-0) by 9 (72%) vs West Jefferson (9-2)

Region 21
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (11-0) by 2 (55%) vs Malvern (10-1)
Shadyside (8-3) by 2 (54%) vs Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) (10-1)

Region 22
Leipsic (10-1) by 13 (79%) vs Mc Comb (8-3)
St John’s (Delphos) (8-3) by 22 (92%) vs Calvert (Tiffin) (9-2)

Region 23
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) (10-1) by 4 (60%) vs Beallsville (9-2)
Buckeye Central (New Washington) (9-2) by 4 (61%) vs Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) (7-4)

Region 24
Marion Local (Maria Stein) (9-2) by 13 (80%) vs Ada (9-2)
Minster (8-3) by 13 (79%) vs Fort Loramie (10-1)

Prediction Results  
Week #1: 240-107 (69.2%)
Week #2: 267-75 (78.1%)
Week #3: 277-69 (80.1%)
Week #4: 277-68 (80.3%)
Week #5: 284-65 (81.4%)
Week #6: 292-59 (83.2%)
Week #7: 293-55 (84.2%)
Week #8: 293-57 (83.7%)
Week #9: 293-58 (83.5%)
Week #10: 293-59 (83.2%)
First Round: 82-14 (85.4%)

Pick details, after week #10
Season: 2891-686 (80.8%)
Within 7 points: 1195 (33.4%)
Within 3 points: 591 (16.5%)
Winner & exact margin: 88 (2.5%)
Avg. error on scores: 13.85 pts.

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THE FANTASTIC 50

We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or
strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew
Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where
he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina
version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine
years and has recently made a push in that stae to change the way it
selects postseason participants.

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