The Fantastic 50: Who wins in Week 11?

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Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

Who is favored to win this
weekend? Here’s who the computers and the Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50

formula favors…Playoff berths and league titles are on the line!


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or
strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew
Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where
he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina
version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine
years and has recently made a push in that stae to change the way it
selects postseason participants.

Click here for This Week’s Fantastic 50
Rankings


Click here for This Week’s Fantastic 50
Playoff Odds

 

PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK 11 GAMES

Region 1
#6 Mentor (9-1) by 34 (98%) vs John F Kennedy (Cleveland) (9-1)
#15 Solon (9-1) by 13 (80%) at South (Willoughby) (8-2)
#5 St Ignatius (Cleveland) (8-2) by 16 (84%) vs #30 Boardman (Youngstown) (7-3)
#2 St Edward (Lakewood) (7-3) by 17 (85%) at #25 Cleveland Heights (9-0)

Region 2
#8 Whitmer (Toledo) (10-0) by 29 (97%) vs Anthony Wayne (Whitehouse) (8-2)
#13 Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (8-2) by 13 (79%) at Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) (9-1)
#21 Glenoak (Canton) (9-1) by 10 (72%) vs #49 Wadsworth (9-1)
#36 Findlay (9-1) by 5 (63%) at Hudson (9-1)

Region 3
#7 Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (9-0) by 21 (90%) vs Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) (8-2)
#32 Upper Arlington (Columbus) (8-2) by 2 (54%) vs #34 Troy (8-2)
#10 Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (7-2) by 16 (84%) vs #46 Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (8-2)
#16 Lincoln (Gahanna) (8-2) by 10 (74%) at Westerville Central (Westerville) (8-2)

Region 4
#9 Middletown (9-1) by 9 (71%) vs #18 Centerville (7-3)
#3 Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (7-3) by 23 (93%) vs #45 Sycamore (Cincinnati) (8-2)
#4 Colerain (Cincinnati) (9-1) by 31 (97%) vs Walnut Hills (Cincinnati) (8-2)
#1 St Xavier (Cincinnati) (7-3) by 24 (93%) vs #26 Mason (7-3)

Region 5
#29 Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (8-1) by 17 (85%) vs West Geauga (Chesterland) (7-3)
Howland (Warren) (9-0) by 1 (53%) at Roosevelt (Kent) (9-1)
#43 Tallmadge (8-2) by 16 (84%) vs New Philadelphia (7-3)
#37 Aurora (9-1) by 15 (83%) vs Madison (8-2)

Region 6
Avon (9-1) by 13 (79%) vs Highland (Medina) (6-4)
#47 Central Catholic (Toledo) (7-3) by 21 (90%) vs Olmsted Falls (7-3)
Sandusky (9-1) by 8 (68%) vs Columbian (Tiffin) (8-2)
#50 Maple Heights (8-1) by 10 (73%) vs Shaw (East Cleveland) (6-3)

Region 7
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (10-0) by 9 (72%) vs Brookhaven (Columbus) (7-3)
Big Walnut (Sunbury) (8-2) by 5 (63%) vs Beechcroft (Columbus) (9-1)
Tri-Valley (Dresden) (9-1) by 23 (93%) vs Tecumseh (New Carlisle) (6-4)
New Albany (8-2) by 7 (67%) vs Ashland (6-4)

Region 8
#11 Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (10-0) by 35 (98%) vs Ross (Hamilton) (8-2)
Wapakoneta (9-1) by 16 (84%) at Franklin (9-1)
#17 Kings (Kings Mills) (10-0) by 13 (80%) vs Harrison (7-3)
Turpin (Cincinnati) (7-3) by 2 (54%) at Tippecanoe (Tipp City) (9-1)

Region 9
#24 Chagrin Falls (10-0) by 30 (97%) vs Firelands (Oberlin) (10-0)
Ravenna (8-2) by 12 (78%) vs Southeast (Ravenna) (10-0)
#14 Lake Catholic (Mentor) (9-1) by 16 (83%) vs Benedictine (Cleveland) (7-3)
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (8-2) by 3 (58%) at University School (Hunting Valley) (9-1)

Region 10
#23 St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (6-3) by 31 (97%) vs River Valley (Caledonia) (7-3)
Elida (7-3) by 6 (64%) at Bellevue (7-3)
Clyde (8-2) by 10 (73%) vs Napoleon (5-5)
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) (8-2) by 13 (79%) vs Urbana (8-2)

Region 11
#12 Steubenville (10-0) by 30 (97%) vs Indian Creek (Wintersville) (8-2)
#20 Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (6-3) by 15 (83%) vs Northwest (Canal Fulton) (8-2)
Dover (9-1) by 9 (72%) vs Sheridan (Thornville) (9-1)
#48 Minerva (10-0) by 12 (77%) vs Poland Seminary (Poland) (7-3)

Region 12
Shawnee (Springfield) (10-0) by 20 (90%) vs Taft (Cincinnati) (7-3)
#35 Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (10-0) by 7 (67%) at Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (9-1)
Jackson (10-0) by 8 (69%) at Athens (The Plains) (10-0)
#40 Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (10-0) by 17 (85%) vs Logan Elm (Circleville) (9-1)

Region 13
Girard (9-1) by 13 (80%) vs Canton Central Catholic (Canton) (8-2)
Manchester (Akron) (7-3) by 5 (62%) at Black River (Sullivan) (8-2)
Orrville (7-3) by 15 (83%) vs Labrae (Leavittsburg) (6-4)
Norwayne (Creston) (9-1) by 10 (73%) vs Brookfield (9-1)

Region 14
#19 Kenton (10-0) by 31 (97%) vs Wellington (7-3)
Genoa Area (Genoa) (9-1) by 10 (73%) vs Huron (9-1)
Eastwood (Pemberville) (10-0) by 4 (60%) vs Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (8-2)
#38 Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (9-0) by 22 (92%) vs North Union (Richwood) (9-1)

Region 15
St Clairsville (9-1) by 17 (86%) vs Chesapeake (7-3)
Coshocton (8-2) by 5 (62%) at Martins Ferry (8-2)
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) (10-0) by 22 (91%) vs Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) (7-3)
Ironton (6-4) by 1 (54%) at Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) (8-2)

Region 16
Waynesville (10-0) by 17 (86%) vs Milton-Union (West Milton) (8-2)
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) (7-3) by 23 (93%) at Westfall (Williamsport) (8-2)
Madeira (Cincinnati) (10-0) by 15 (83%) vs Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) (7-3)
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (8-2) by 18 (87%) vs North College Hill (Cincinnati) (8-2)

Region 17
Kirtland (10-0) by 19 (89%) vs Columbiana (8-2)
Garaway (Sugarcreek) (8-2) by 7 (67%) vs Springfield (New Middletown) (8-2)
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) (6-4) by 1 (51%) at Monroe Central (Woodsfield) (9-1)
Crestview (Columbiana) (9-1) by 5 (62%) vs Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (9-1)

Region 18
Liberty Center (10-0) by 16 (84%) vs Carey (8-2)
Patrick Henry (Hamler) (8-2) by 14 (80%) at Northwood (9-1)
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (10-0) by 15 (82%) vs Hicksville (8-2)
#31 Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (10-0) by 23 (92%) vs Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (9-1)

Region 19
Wynford (Bucyrus) (10-0) by 17 (85%) vs Smithville (8-2)
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) (9-1) by 3 (57%) vs Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) (9-1)
Valley (Lucasville) (10-0) by 11 (74%) vs Ridgewood (West Lafayette) (8-2)
Grandview Heights (Columbus) (10-0) by 12 (78%) vs Crestview (Ashland) (10-0)

Region 20
Versailles (8-2) by 3 (57%) at West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) (10-0)
Coldwater (7-3) by 15 (82%) at Covington (10-0)
Pleasant (Marion) (10-0) by 27 (95%) vs Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) (7-3)
Adena (Frankfort) (9-1) by 1 (52%) vs West Jefferson (8-2)

Region 21
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (10-0) by 11 (76%) vs Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) (6-4)
Malvern (9-1) by 2 (54%) at Ledgemont (Thompson) (10-0)
Shadyside (7-3) by 25 (94%) vs Wellsville (5-5)
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) (9-1) by 1 (53%) vs Mogadore (7-3)

Region 22
Leipsic (9-1) by 26 (95%) vs Arcadia (7-3)
Mc Comb (7-3) by 1 (50%) at Edgerton (8-2)
St John’S (Delphos) (7-3) by 36 (99%) vs Ottawa Hills (Toledo) (7-3)
Calvert (Tiffin) (8-2) by 14 (81%) vs Edon (7-3)

Region 23
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) (9-1) by 9 (71%) vs Trimble (Glouster) (7-3)
Beallsville (8-2) by 11 (76%) at Sciotoville Community (Portsmouth) (7-3)
Buckeye Central (New Washington) (8-2) by 19 (89%) vs South Gallia (Crown City) (7-3)
Danville (7-3) by 10 (73%) vs Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) (6-4)

Region 24
Marion Local (Maria Stein) (8-2) by 33 (98%) vs Lockland (7-3)
Ada (8-2) by 16 (84%) at Tri-County North (Lewisburg) (8-2)
Fort Loramie (9-1) by 22 (92%) vs Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) (7-3)
Minster (7-3) by 11 (75%) at Catholic Central (Springfield) (8-2)

Prediction Results 
Week #1: 240-107 (69.2%)
Week #2: 267-75 (78.1%)
Week #3: 277-69 (80.1%)
Week #4: 277-68 (80.3%)
Week #5: 284-65 (81.4%)
Week #6: 292-59 (83.2%)
Week #7: 293-55 (84.2%)
Week #8: 293-57 (83.7%)
Week #9: 293-58 (83.5%)
Week #10: 293-59 (83.2%)

Pick details, after week #10
Season: 2809-672 (80.7%)
Within 7 points: 1168 (33.6%)
Within 3 points: 575 (16.5%)
Winner & exact margin: 87 (2.5%)
Avg. error on scores: 13.85 pts.

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