The Fantastic 50: State & Regional Title Odds

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Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

Based on Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 formula, here’s who wins regional and state titles…according to the numbers.


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

_____________________________________________________________________

Who gets in? Who Hosts? Who advances?

Regional Championship Odds

TThese odds are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season and playoffs.  The numbers are the relative likelihood that a team will not or will win the championship.  For example, 5:2 odds mean a 2/7 chance of that team winning the championship.  These odds are not intended to encourage any form of gambling, but rather for informational and entertainment purposes only.  Teams with odds above 500:1 are shown at 500:1.

Region 1 Championship Odds
St Edward (Lakewood) 7:5
Mentor 2:1
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 4:1
Solon 16:1
Cleveland Heights 130:1
Boardman (Youngstown) 130:1
John F Kennedy (Cleveland) 500:1
South (Willoughby) 500:1

Region 2 Championship Odds
Whitmer (Toledo) 1:1
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 4:1
Glenoak (Canton) 6:1
Findlay 11:1
Wadsworth 35:1
Hudson 65:1
Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 180:1
Anthony Wayne (Whitehouse) 500:1

Region 3 Championship Odds
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 6:5
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 5:2
Lincoln (Gahanna) 6:1
Troy 21:1
Upper Arlington (Columbus) 25:1
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 55:1
Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) 90:1
Westerville Central (Westerville) 150:1

Region 4 Championship Odds
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 6:5
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 5:2
Colerain (Cincinnati) 5:1
Middletown 14:1
Centerville 75:1
Mason 250:1
Sycamore (Cincinnati) 500:1
Walnut Hills (Cincinnati) 500:1

Region 5 Championship Odds
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 2:1
Aurora 5:2
Tallmadge 7:2
Howland (Warren) 11:1
Roosevelt (Kent) 25:1
Madison 55:1
West Geauga (Chesterland) 60:1
New Philadelphia 110:1

Region 6 Championship Odds
Central Catholic (Toledo) 2:1
Maple Heights 7:2
Avon 4:1
Sandusky 7:1
Shaw (East Cleveland) 20:1
Columbian (Tiffin) 24:1
Highland (Medina) 50:1
Olmsted Falls 180:1

Region 7 Championship Odds
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 2:1
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 4:1
New Albany 5:1
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 7:1
Ashland 13:1
Beechcroft (Columbus) 15:1
Brookhaven (Columbus) 22:1
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 500:1

Region 8 Championship Odds
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 2:3
Kings (Kings Mills) 5:2
Wapakoneta 18:1
Harrison 25:1
Turpin (Cincinnati) 170:1
Franklin 500:1
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 500:1
Ross (Hamilton) 500:1

Region 9 Championship Odds
Chagrin Falls 4:3
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 3:2
Ravenna 13:1
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 18:1
Benedictine (Cleveland) 25:1
University School (Hunting Valley) 75:1
Southeast (Ravenna) 190:1
Firelands (Oberlin) 500:1

Region 10 Championship Odds
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 2:5
Elida 10:1
Clyde 11:1
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 12:1
Napoleon 80:1
Bellevue 85:1
Urbana 200:1
River Valley (Caledonia) 500:1

Region 11 Championship Odds
Steubenville 4:5
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 3:1
Minerva 7:1
Dover 17:1
Northwest (Canal Fulton) 65:1
Poland Seminary (Poland) 80:1
Sheridan (Thornville) 110:1
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 500:1

Region 12 Championship Odds
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 2:1
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 2:1
Jackson 7:1
Shawnee (Springfield) 7:1
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 15:1
Logan Elm (Circleville) 60:1
Athens (The Plains) 80:1
Taft (Cincinnati) 500:1

Region 13 Championship Odds
Girard 2:1
Orrville 5:2
Norwayne (Creston) 4:1
Manchester (Akron) 14:1
Brookfield 22:1
Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 23:1
Labrae (Leavittsburg) 55:1
Black River (Sullivan) 90:1

Region 14 Championship Odds
Kenton 2:3
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 5:2
Eastwood (Pemberville) 24:1
Genoa Area (Genoa) 35:1
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 35:1
North Union (Richwood) 300:1
Huron 300:1
Wellington 500:1

Region 15 Championship Odds
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 4:3
Coshocton 5:1
St Clairsville 6:1
Ironton 6:1
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 15:1
Martins Ferry 24:1
Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 140:1
Chesapeake 300:1

Region 16 Championship Odds
Waynesville 2:1
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 5:2
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 3:1
Madeira (Cincinnati) 11:1
Milton-Union (West Milton) 60:1
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 150:1
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 400:1
Westfall (Williamsport) 500:1

Region 17 Championship Odds
Kirtland 3:4
Crestview (Columbiana) 6:1
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 10:1
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 12:1
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 19:1
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 25:1
Columbiana 35:1
Springfield (New Middletown) 90:1

Region 18 Championship Odds
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 3:4
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 6:1
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 7:1
Liberty Center 7:1
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 85:1
Hicksville 130:1
Carey 200:1
Northwood 400:1

Region 19 Championship Odds
Wynford (Bucyrus) 5:2
Valley (Lucasville) 3:1
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 6:1
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 7:1
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 8:1
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 18:1
Crestview (Ashland) 80:1
Smithville 85:1

Region 20 Championship Odds
Coldwater 8:5
Pleasant (Marion) 2:1
Versailles 5:1
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 18:1
West Jefferson 30:1
Adena (Frankfort) 40:1
Covington 90:1
Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) 500:1

Region 21 Championship Odds
Shadyside 5:2
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 3:1
Malvern 5:1
Mogadore 8:1
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 10:1
Ledgemont (Thompson) 14:1
Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) 25:1
Wellsville 500:1

Region 22 Championship Odds
St John’S (Delphos) 1:2
Leipsic 5:2
Mc Comb 65:1
Calvert (Tiffin) 80:1
Edgerton 110:1
Arcadia 500:1
Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 500:1
Edon 500:1

Region 23 Championship Odds
Buckeye Central (New Washington) 2:1
Danville 5:2
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 5:1
Beallsville 8:1
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 14:1
Trimble (Glouster) 22:1
South Gallia (Crown City) 130:1
Sciotoville Community (Portsmouth) 300:1

Region 24 Championship Odds
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 1:1
Minster 2:1
Ada 12:1
Fort Loramie 15:1
Catholic Central (Springfield) 45:1
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 500:1
Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) 500:1
Lockland 500:1

Results from Previous Years
In 2010, before the playoffs began, I correctly predicted 10 of the 24 region winners, while only 5 teams seeded #1 won their regions.  19 of the 24 winners were listed first or second in my regional odds.  Of the seven teams that I had as odds-on favorites (better than 1:1), six of the seven won their regions.  The longshots were Wayne (15:1, #8 seed) in Region 4 and Buchtel (16:1, #5 seed) in Region 9.

In 2009, these odds correctly predicted 14 of the 24 region winners; by comparison, only 7 teams seeded #1 won their regions.  Of the twelve teams that I had listed with even-money odds or better, all twelve won their regions.  There were some longshots that won their regions: Ottawa-Glandorf (12:1, #5 seed) in Region 14, Grove City Christian (35:1, #6 seed) in Region 23, and Marion-Franklin (55:1, #8 seed) in Region 7.

In 2008, 21 of the 24 regional champions were teams that I had listed either first or second in the region at the start of the playoffs. Archbishop Hoban (15:1 in R5), Sunbury Big Walnut (6:1 in R10), and Columbus Eastmoor Academy (12:1 in R12) were the three longshot winners.

State Championship Odds

TThese odds are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season and playoffs.  The numbers are the relative likelihood that a team will not or will win the championship.  For example, 5:2 odds mean a 2/7 chance of that team winning the championship.  These odds are not intended to encourage any form of gambling, but rather for informational and entertainment purposes only.  Only teams with odds of 1,000:1 or better are listed.

In 2010, five of the six state champions were listed in the top two of their division in these odds at the end of the regular season (St. Edward 1st at 9:5, Maple Heights 2nd at 9:1, Bishop Watterson 2nd at 7:2, Ursuline 1st at 1:4, and Delphos St. John’s 1st at 2:5).  However, in Division IV, Bishop Hartley was quite a long-shot listed 17th (of 32 teams) most likely to win that title, at 120:1.

Also in 2009, five of the six state champions were listed in the top two of their division in these odds (Winton Woods – tied for 2nd at 6:1, Cardinal Mooney 1st at 6:5, Archbishop Alter 1st at 4:5, Ursuline 1st at 2:1, and Norwalk St. Paul 2nd at 6:1).  The one surprise was D-I champ Hilliard Davidson, listed 9th at 25:1.

Division I State Championship Odds
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 3:1
St Edward (Lakewood) 5:1
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 7:1
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 11:1
Whitmer (Toledo) 11:1
Mentor 12:1
Colerain (Cincinnati) 18:1
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 20:1
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 22:1
Middletown 65:1
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 70:1
Lincoln (Gahanna) 130:1
Glenoak (Canton) 130:1
Solon 200:1
Findlay 500:1
Centerville 700:1
Troy 700:1
 
Division II State Championship Odds
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 7:5
Kings (Kings Mills) 6:1
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 10:1
Aurora 14:1
Central Catholic (Toledo) 18:1
Tallmadge 22:1
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 30:1
Maple Heights 35:1
Avon 40:1
New Albany 60:1
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 65:1
Wapakoneta 75:1
Sandusky 85:1
Howland (Warren) 100:1
Harrison 120:1
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 150:1
Roosevelt (Kent) 300:1
Ashland 350:1
Beechcroft (Columbus) 450:1
Shaw (East Cleveland) 500:1
Columbian (Tiffin) 700:1
Brookhaven (Columbus) 1000:1

Division III State Championship Odds
Steubenville 3:1
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 4:1
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 6:1
Chagrin Falls 7:1
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 11:1
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 16:1
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 18:1
Minerva 50:1
Jackson 90:1
Shawnee (Springfield) 120:1
Ravenna 140:1
Dover 190:1
Elida 250:1
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 250:1
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 250:1
Clyde 350:1
Benedictine (Cleveland) 350:1
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 450:1
Northwest (Canal Fulton) 700:1

Division IV State Championship Odds
Kenton 6:5
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 4:1
Waynesville 12:1
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 13:1
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 19:1
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 35:1
Girard 40:1
Orrville 55:1
Eastwood (Pemberville) 65:1
Coshocton 80:1
Norwayne (Creston) 95:1
Ironton 100:1
Genoa Area (Genoa) 120:1
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 130:1
St Clairsville 140:1
Madeira (Cincinnati) 200:1
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 350:1
Martins Ferry 800:1

Division V State Championship Odds
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 3:2
Kirtland 5:1
Coldwater 12:1
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 16:1
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 23:1
Pleasant (Marion) 23:1
Liberty Center 23:1
Wynford (Bucyrus) 24:1
Valley (Lucasville) 24:1
Versailles 55:1
Crestview (Columbiana) 60:1
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 85:1
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 85:1
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 110:1
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 130:1
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 170:1
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 300:1
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 350:1
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 600:1
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 700:1
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 900:1
Columbiana 1000:1

Division VI State Championship Odds
St John’S (Delphos) 6:5
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 7:2
Leipsic 6:1
Minster 8:1
Shadyside 60:1
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 70:1
Ada 85:1
Fort Loramie 140:1
Malvern 150:1
Danville 200:1
Buckeye Central (New Washington) 200:1
Mogadore 350:1
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 350:1
Mc Comb 400:1
Catholic Central (Springfield) 400:1
Ledgemont (Thompson) 500:1
Calvert (Tiffin) 600:1
Edgerton 800:1

State Championship Odds by Region  (during week #9)

Division I
Region 1 – 42%
Region 2 – 6%
Region 3 – 10%
Region 4 – 42%

Division II
Region 5 – 19%
Region 6 – 14%
Region 7 – 7%
Region 8 – 60%

Division III
Region 9 – 35%
Region 10 – 14%
Region 11 – 39%
Region 12 – 12%

Division IV
Region 13 – 6%
Region 14 – 61%
Region 15 – 12%
Region 16 – 21%

Division V
Region 17 – 22%
Region 18 – 48%
Region 19 – 10%
Region 20 – 20%

Division VI
Region 21 – 6%
Region 22 – 61%
Region 23 – 2%
Region 24 – 31%

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