The Fantastic 50: Week 10 Playoff Odds (Updated!)

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Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

Based on Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 formula, here’s a look at the
2011 postseason odds –
Who gets in, who hosts and who advances…there is JUST ONE WEEK left until the postseason starts!


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

This Week’s Fantastic 50

_____________________________________________________________________

This Week’s
Game Predictions

_____________________________________________________________________

Who gets in? Who Hosts? Who advances?

Playoff Berth Odds

These numbers are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  For those interested in more details about the methodology and results, they were recently published here.  If you can’t access that site, but would like a copy of the paper, just send me an e-mail.

In parenthesis are conditional Harbin point values and conditional playoff probabilities, based on how many games a team wins.  For example, 7W-18.9H-63% would mean that if that team wins exactly 7 games, they would have an estimated 18.9 Harbin points and a 63% chance of earning a berth.

After week #9 last year, my predictions of playoff teams were about 93% accurate.  Out of the teams listed in the top eight within their region here, you can expect that roughly 90-95% will qualify for the postseason.

Region 1 Playoff Berth Probabilities
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 100% (7W-25.3H-100% 8W-30.0H-100%)
Cleveland Heights 100% (8W-23.9H-100% 9W-29.6H-100%)
St Edward (Lakewood) 100% (7W-25.3H-100% 8W-30.3H-100%)
Mentor 100% (9W-31.4H-100% 10W-35.5H-100%)
Solon 100% (8W-25.5H-100% 9W-26.2H-100%)
South (Willoughby) 100% (7W-21.9H-100% 8W-26.5H-100%)
John F Kennedy (Cleveland) 96% (8W-18.3H-76% 9W-19.4H-96%)
Boardman (Youngstown) 68% (6W-17.3H-17% 7W-21.4H-100%)
Mayfield 15% (6W-18.1H-30%)
North (Eastlake) 13% (8W-19.1H-56%)
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 5% (6W-17.4H-5%)
North Royalton 3% (6W-17.5H-14%)
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 1% (7W-16.4H-2%)
Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights) 1% (6W-16.5H-1%)

Region 2 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Glenoak (Canton) 100% (8W-28.0H-100% 9W-29.6H-100%)
Hudson 100% (8W-25.4H-100% 9W-28.9H-100%)
Whitmer (Toledo) 100% (9W-26.6H-100% 10W-31.4H-100%)
Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 100% (8W-26.9H-100% 9W-29.0H-100%)
Wadsworth 99% (8W-24.0H-97% 9W-25.6H-100%)
Findlay 90% (8W-22.6H-46% 9W-26.0H-100%)
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 80% (7W-22.8H-24% 8W-27.1H-100%)
Avon Lake 50% (7W-22.0H-1% 8W-23.0H-52%)
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 27% (8W-24.8H-99%)
North Ridgeville 21% (9W-23.0H-37%)
Anthony Wayne (Whitehouse) 19% (8W-22.6H-20%)
Jackson (Massillon) 12% (6W-20.9H-1% 7W-22.6H-15%)
Twinsburg 1% (7W-22.9H-15%)

Region 3 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 100% (8W-22.4H-100% 9W-27.2H-100%)
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 100% (8W-26.3H-100% 9W-31.5H-100%)
Westerville Central (Westerville) 100% (7W-23.0H-100% 8W-26.0H-100%)
Troy 100% (7W-24.5H-100% 8W-25.0H-100%)
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 99% (6W-21.6H-99% 7W-26.2H-100%)
Lincoln (Gahanna) 99% (7W-21.3H-76% 8W-23.7H-100%)
Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) 97% (7W-19.9H-41% 8W-21.6H-99%)
Upper Arlington (Columbus) 73% (7W-20.1H-44% 8W-25.5H-100%)
Westerville South (Westerville) 28% (7W-21.3H-53%)
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 4% (8W-19.5H-4%)
Reynoldsburg 1% (7W-17.9H-1%)

Region 4 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 100% (7W-26.0H-100% 8W-31.5H-100%)
Colerain (Cincinnati) 100% (8W-28.2H-100% 9W-31.2H-100%)
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 100% (7W-29.2H-100% 8W-32.9H-100%)
Sycamore (Cincinnati) 100% (8W-23.1H-100% 9W-27.3H-100%)
Middletown 100% (8W-30.6H-100% 9W-35.4H-100%)
Walnut Hills (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-20.5H-87% 8W-21.5H-99%)
Centerville 75% (7W-20.7H-87%)
Mason 48% (6W-18.1H-1% 7W-23.5H-100%)
Princeton (Cincinnati) 33% (7W-19.4H-20% 8W-24.8H-100%)
Lebanon 30% (6W-17.7H-1% 7W-20.0H-48%)
La Salle (Cincinnati) 15% (6W-18.3H-5% 7W-20.2H-47%)
Wayne (Huber Heights) 1% (6W-17.2H-1%)

Region 5 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Tallmadge 100% (7W-20.0H-100% 8W-23.9H-100%)
Howland (Warren) 100% (9W-22.3H-100%)
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 100% (7W-22.9H-100% 8W-26.5H-100%)
Madison 99% (7W-20.1H-99% 8W-22.4H-100%)
New Philadelphia 99% (7W-20.2H-99% 8W-25.0H-100%)
Aurora 96% (8W-19.2H-73% 9W-22.9H-100%)
Canfield 82% (6W-17.8H-62% 7W-21.4H-100%)
West Geauga (Chesterland) 78% (7W-19.0H-84%)
Roosevelt (Kent) 30% (8W-17.8H-16% 9W-22.5H-100%)
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 14% (7W-20.8H-100%)

Region 6 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Maple Heights 100% (8W-24.0H-100% 9W-29.8H-100%)
Central Catholic (Toledo) 100% (7W-22.0H-100% 8W-27.6H-100%)
Avon 100% (9W-29.5H-100% 10W-34.0H-100%)
Sandusky 99% (8W-21.0H-99% 9W-25.0H-100%)
Highland (Medina) 96% (6W-17.9H-63% 7W-20.0H-99%)
Columbian (Tiffin) 74% (7W-15.6H-2% 8W-19.3H-87%)
Olmsted Falls 73% (6W-17.2H-20% 7W-20.7H-99%)
Perrysburg 56% (6W-16.9H-12% 7W-20.6H-99%)
Shaw (East Cleveland) 39% (5W-15.1H-1% 6W-19.1H-79%)
Maumee 30% (7W-17.9H-59%)
Fremont Ross (Fremont) 22% (5W-16.2H-4% 6W-21.4H-99%)
Midview (Grafton) 11% (8W-17.5H-26%)

Region 7 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Beechcroft (Columbus) 100% (8W-20.6H-100% 9W-23.2H-100%)
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 100% (10W-29.1H-100%)
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 100% (8W-22.7H-100% 9W-26.0H-100%)
New Albany 100% (7W-23.6H-100% 8W-25.3H-100%)
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 100% (7W-21.8H-100% 8W-22.9H-100%)
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 99% (6W-15.7H-99% 7W-19.6H-100%)
Ashland 97% (5W-15.0H-87% 6W-18.2H-100%)
Brookhaven (Columbus) 38% (7W-14.9H-57%)
Mifflin (Columbus) 34% (8W-13.8H-1% 9W-17.5H-100%)
Bellbrook 27% (6W-14.9H-32%)
Wooster 4% (5W-14.6H-11%)
Canal Winchester 1% (7W-14.2H-1%)

Region 8 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Wapakoneta 100% (9W-22.1H-100% 10W-26.9H-100%)
Turpin (Cincinnati) 100% (7W-19.0H-100% 8W-24.8H-100%)
Kings (Kings Mills) 100% (9W-29.5H-100% 10W-33.9H-100%)
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 100% (9W-30.5H-100% 10W-34.4H-100%)
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 100% (9W-24.0H-100% 10W-28.9H-100%)
Franklin 100% (8W-22.9H-100% 9W-23.4H-100%)
Harrison 78% (7W-17.0H-99%)
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 44% (8W-16.5H-44%)
Butler (Vandalia) 32% (6W-16.1H-29% 7W-21.7H-100%)
Ross (Hamilton) 26% (7W-14.3H-1% 8W-16.3H-37%)
Anderson (Cincinnati) 20% (5W-17.2H-99%)
Northwest (Cincinnati) 1% (7W-15.1H-1%)

Region 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Chagrin Falls 100% (9W-25.6H-100% 10W-28.3H-100%)
University School (Hunting Valley) 100% (8W-23.3H-100% 9W-25.4H-100%)
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 100% (8W-23.0H-100% 9W-28.4H-100%)
Ravenna 100% (8W-22.5H-100% 9W-27.3H-100%)
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 99% (8W-21.1H-99% 9W-23.2H-100%)
Benedictine (Cleveland) 99% (7W-20.2H-98% 8W-23.6H-100%)
Southeast (Ravenna) 98% (9W-19.1H-63% 10W-21.6H-100%)
Firelands (Oberlin) 65% (9W-17.2H-28% 10W-19.5H-65%)
Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) 39% (8W-19.9H-84%)
Jefferson Area (Jefferson) 1% (8W-17.5H-1%)
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 1% (6W-17.6H-1%)
John Hay (Cleveland) 1% (7W-17.1H-1%)

Region 10 Playoff Berth Probabilities
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 100% (5W-19.3H-100% 6W-23.9H-100%)
Bellevue 100% (7W-17.0H-100% 8W-21.9H-100%)
Clyde 100% (7W-18.5H-100% 8W-21.2H-100%)
Elida 100% (6W-15.1H-100% 7W-17.5H-100%)
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 100% (7W-17.7H-100% 8W-19.1H-100%)
Urbana 99% (7W-14.3H-99% 8W-15.9H-100%)
Napoleon 79% (4W-10.9H-2% 5W-14.1H-99%)
River Valley (Caledonia) 69% (6W-11.1H-10% 7W-12.7H-79%)
Bryan 18% (7W-10.1H-1% 8W-11.7H-20%)
Independence (Columbus) 13% (5W-9.8H-1% 6W-12.3H-50%)
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 12% (4W-15.8H-100%)
Port Clinton 6% (5W-10.6H-1% 6W-14.3H-99%)
Whitehall-Yearling (Whitehall) 2% (6W-11.2H-3%)
Bexley (Columbus) 1% (6W-10.8H-1%)
Defiance 1% (5W-10.7H-1%)
Shawnee (Lima) 1% (5W-10.0H-1%)

Region 11 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Dover 100% (8W-25.0H-100% 9W-29.2H-100%)
Minerva 100% (9W-26.0H-100% 10W-27.5H-100%)
Steubenville 100% (9W-30.9H-100% 10W-31.6H-100%)
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 100% (5W-23.2H-100% 6W-25.2H-100%)
Northwest (Canal Fulton) 99% (7W-19.7H-70% 8W-21.8H-100%)
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 92% (7W-18.7H-31% 8W-20.7H-99%)
Sheridan (Thornville) 77% (8W-17.7H-3% 9W-21.5H-100%)
Poland Seminary (Poland) 55% (6W-18.5H-15% 7W-22.2H-100%)
Granville 47% (8W-16.6H-1% 9W-19.5H-56%)
Marlington (Alliance) 29% (7W-16.4H-1% 8W-19.3H-36%)

Region 12 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 100% (9W-24.9H-100%)
Shawnee (Springfield) 100% (9W-23.9H-100% 10W-29.0H-100%)
Logan Elm (Circleville) 100% (9W-22.6H-100% 10W-26.5H-100%)
Athens (The Plains) 100% (9W-23.1H-100% 10W-27.5H-100%)
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 100% (9W-21.2H-100% 10W-24.9H-100%)
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 100% (9W-26.0H-100% 10W-28.0H-100%)
Jackson 99% (9W-18.9H-99% 10W-22.5H-100%)
Taft (Cincinnati) 82% (7W-17.9H-85%)
Gallia Academy (Gallipolis) 9% (7W-18.4H-98%)
New Richmond 8% (7W-16.0H-6% 8W-16.5H-8%)
Kenton Ridge (Springfield) 1% (8W-16.6H-1%)
Indian Hill (Cincinnati) 1% (7W-15.4H-1%)
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 1% (7W-15.6H-1%)

Region 13 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Girard 100% (8W-21.6H-100% 9W-22.0H-100%)
Orrville 100% (6W-18.8H-100% 7W-21.4H-100%)
Black River (Sullivan) 100% (7W-16.1H-100% 8W-17.0H-100%)
Brookfield 100% (8W-15.3H-100% 9W-16.3H-100%)
Norwayne (Creston) 100% (8W-17.5H-100% 9W-21.5H-100%)
Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 96% (8W-13.9H-93% 9W-16.6H-100%)
Labrae (Leavittsburg) 86% (5W-12.4H-37% 6W-14.0H-88%)
Manchester (Akron) 74% (6W-12.5H-44% 7W-16.3H-100%)
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 41% (6W-12.2H-16% 7W-15.4H-99%)
Beachwood 2% (7W-13.0H-30%)
Streetsboro 1% (6W-11.6H-1%)
Lakeview (Cortland) 1% (6W-11.3H-1%)
Perry 1% (5W-12.1H-4%)

Region 14 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Kenton 100% (9W-24.0H-100% 10W-28.9H-100%)
Genoa Area (Genoa) 100% (9W-20.5H-100% 10W-25.0H-100%)
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 100% (7W-18.4H-100% 8W-18.9H-100%)
Eastwood (Pemberville) 100% (9W-23.0H-100% 10W-27.5H-100%)
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 100% (8W-24.4H-100% 9W-26.8H-100%)
North Union (Richwood) 100% (8W-18.5H-100% 9W-19.2H-100%)
Huron 99% (8W-17.5H-99% 9W-19.6H-100%)
Ontario (Mansfield) 60% (9W-17.1H-98%)
Wellington 40% (6W-14.6H-39% 7W-16.5H-41%)

Region 15 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Coshocton 100% (7W-18.3H-100% 8W-19.6H-100%)
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 100% (7W-17.2H-100% 8W-22.3H-100%)
Martins Ferry 100% (7W-16.3H-100% 8W-19.0H-100%)
St Clairsville 100% (8W-23.0H-100% 9W-23.5H-100%)
Chesapeake 100% (7W-14.7H-100% 8W-17.6H-100%)
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 100% (9W-21.4H-100% 10W-22.5H-100%)
Ironton 99% (5W-14.7H-99% 6W-16.6H-100%)
Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 92% (6W-12.9H-48% 7W-15.2H-100%)
Meigs (Pomeroy) 8% (7W-12.9H-11%)
Piketon 1% (6W-12.6H-4%)

Region 16 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 100% (7W-17.3H-100% 8W-22.3H-100%)
Westfall (Williamsport) 100% (7W-17.1H-100% 8W-17.5H-100%)
Madeira (Cincinnati) 100% (9W-20.3H-100% 10W-23.5H-100%)
Waynesville 100% (9W-23.8H-100% 10W-26.0H-100%)
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-16.2H-99% 8W-19.4H-100%)
Milton-Union (West Milton) 96% (7W-15.4H-92% 8W-15.9H-96%)
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 96% (7W-15.9H-74% 8W-19.5H-100%)
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 70% (7W-14.0H-38% 8W-17.1H-100%)
Brookville 21% (6W-12.9H-1% 7W-14.2H-32%)
East Clinton (Lees Creek) 16% (7W-13.1H-1% 8W-17.0H-100%)
Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) 1% (8W-13.3H-1%)

Region 17 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Kirtland 100% (10W-22.5H-100%)
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 100% (8W-18.3H-100% 9W-19.0H-100%)
Crestview (Columbiana) 99% (8W-15.5H-98% 9W-16.6H-100%)
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 94% (8W-13.6H-17% 9W-16.0H-99%)
Memorial (Campbell) 92% (7W-13.8H-19% 8W-16.3H-99%)
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 83% (7W-13.9H-17% 8W-16.1H-100%)
Springfield (New Middletown) 80% (7W-14.1H-31% 8W-15.6H-100%)
Columbiana 55% (7W-12.8H-1% 8W-14.7H-63%)
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 46% (6W-15.4H-88%)
Southern (Salineville) 46% (8W-12.9H-1% 9W-14.7H-55%)
Ursuline (Youngstown) 4% (4W-14.0H-5%)
Barnesville 1% (8W-12.6H-1%)

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Liberty Center 100% (9W-21.9H-100% 10W-25.2H-100%)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 100% (9W-20.4H-100% 10W-23.8H-100%)
Northwood 100% (8W-17.1H-100% 9W-18.1H-100%)
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 100% (9W-23.5H-100% 10W-24.6H-100%)
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 99% (7W-14.9H-98% 8W-17.5H-100%)
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 97% (8W-14.4H-51% 9W-16.5H-100%)
Hicksville 94% (7W-14.1H-46% 8W-16.0H-99%)
Carey 67% (7W-13.6H-19% 8W-15.0H-72%)
Archbold 32% (8W-16.4H-100%)
Spencerville 10% (8W-14.1H-13%)
Columbus Grove 1% (7W-12.7H-1%)
Tinora (Defiance) 1% (8W-12.6H-1%)

Region 19 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Wynford (Bucyrus) 100% (9W-23.0H-100% 10W-23.8H-100%)
Valley (Lucasville) 100% (9W-21.5H-100% 10W-23.6H-100%)
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 100% (9W-20.4H-100% 10W-25.1H-100%)
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 99% (7W-16.3H-62% 8W-17.8H-99%)
Crestview (Ashland) 99% (9W-16.5H-83% 10W-18.6H-100%)
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 81% (9W-16.5H-46% 10W-20.3H-100%)
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 77% (8W-16.2H-47% 9W-19.6H-100%)
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 54% (9W-15.6H-1% 10W-19.4H-100%)
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 36% (9W-17.1H-99%)
Wheelersburg 32% (8W-16.5H-74%)
Smithville 22% (7W-15.3H-11% 8W-16.0H-22%)
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 1% (7W-15.9H-1%)
Centerburg 1% (8W-14.8H-1%)

Region 20 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Pleasant (Marion) 100% (10W-21.1H-100%)
Coldwater 100% (7W-15.1H-100% 8W-17.5H-100%)
Adena (Frankfort) 100% (8W-16.5H-100% 9W-19.1H-100%)
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 100% (9W-18.4H-100% 10W-21.5H-100%)
Covington 100% (9W-16.1H-100% 10W-18.4H-100%)
West Jefferson 99% (7W-12.0H-93% 8W-13.1H-100%)
Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) 89% (6W-11.3H-7% 7W-12.4H-95%)
Versailles 57% (7W-11.2H-8% 8W-11.9H-62%)
Triad (North Lewisburg) 54% (7W-11.9H-40% 8W-16.0H-100%)
Williamsburg 1% (7W-11.2H-1%)
Dayton Christian (Miamisburg) 1% (9W-10.9H-1%)
Fairbanks (Milford Center) 1% (7W-11.3H-1%)

Region 21 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 100% (9W-16.1H-100% 10W-18.3H-100%)
Mogadore 100% (6W-12.0H-100% 7W-13.1H-100%)
Ledgemont (Thompson) 100% (9W-14.5H-100% 10W-15.9H-100%)
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 100% (8W-16.0H-100% 9W-17.4H-100%)
Malvern 100% (8W-13.1H-100% 9W-14.7H-100%)
Shadyside 100% (6W-14.1H-100% 7W-17.6H-100%)
Wellsville 68% (4W-8.1H-3% 5W-9.7H-87%)
John F Kennedy (Warren) 55% (5W-8.7H-29% 6W-12.4H-100%)
Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) 25% (5W-8.2H-1% 6W-9.1H-25%)
Strasburg-Franklin (Strasburg) 22% (5W-8.3H-2% 6W-11.6H-99%)
Toronto 11% (7W-8.7H-22%)
Mineral Ridge 9% (5W-9.6H-67%)
Mc Donald 5% (6W-10.9H-93%)
Mc Kinley (Sebring) 4% (5W-8.8H-26%)
Chalker (Southington) 1% (4W-8.3H-2%)

Region 22 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Calvert (Tiffin) 100% (7W-14.0H-100% 8W-14.8H-100%)
St John’S (Delphos) 100% (6W-14.8H-100% 7W-15.1H-100%)
Edgerton 100% (7W-11.2H-100% 8W-14.2H-100%)
Leipsic 100% (8W-15.1H-100% 9W-17.9H-100%)
Mc Comb 100% (7W-11.4H-100% 8W-14.7H-100%)
Edon 99% (6W-9.4H-98% 7W-11.6H-100%)
Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 94% (6W-8.8H-65% 7W-9.8H-100%)
Arcadia 91% (6W-8.3H-12% 7W-9.3H-99%)
Crestview (Convoy) 10% (4W-7.9H-2% 5W-8.4H-10%)
St Paul (Norwalk) 5% (6W-8.6H-5%)
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 1% (5W-8.1H-1%)

Region 23 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Buckeye Central (New Washington) 100% (7W-11.5H-100% 8W-13.8H-100%)
Beallsville 100% (7W-12.6H-100% 8W-13.0H-100%)
Danville 100% (6W-11.6H-100% 7W-12.4H-100%)
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 100% (8W-12.8H-100% 9W-15.8H-100%)
South Gallia (Crown City) 99% (7W-10.8H-99% 8W-14.3H-100%)
Trimble (Glouster) 95% (6W-9.2H-4% 7W-11.1H-100%)
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 89% (5W-9.7H-17% 6W-12.0H-100%)
Notre Dame (Portsmouth) 72% (7W-9.8H-7% 8W-12.5H-100%)
Sciotoville Community (Portsmouth) 34% (6W-9.4H-5% 7W-12.3H-100%)
River (Hannibal) 5% (5W-8.9H-1% 6W-9.3H-5%)
Newark Catholic (Newark) 4% (4W-8.8H-1% 5W-9.6H-5%)
Plymouth 1% (6W-10.1H-13%)
Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) 1% (6W-9.3H-1%)

Region 24 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 100% (7W-12.1H-100% 8W-14.6H-100%)
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 100% (7W-15.0H-100% 8W-16.8H-100%)
Ada 100% (8W-13.9H-100% 9W-18.0H-100%)
Fort Loramie 100% (8W-14.4H-100% 9W-15.8H-100%)
Catholic Central (Springfield) 100% (7W-14.1H-100% 8W-14.8H-100%)
Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) 99% (6W-10.0H-96% 7W-11.1H-99%)
Lockland 67% (6W-8.0H-1% 7W-9.9H-91%)
Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 54% (6W-8.4H-9% 7W-9.6H-55%)
Minster 51% (6W-9.3H-34% 7W-12.4H-100%)
Ansonia 25% (6W-8.3H-1% 7W-11.3H-99%)
Arcanum 3% (6W-11.7H-100%)
Southeastern Local (South Charleston) 1% (5W-7.7H-1%)

Playoff Seed Odds

Listed after each team is their projected Harbin point total, based on the median result of 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  For those interested in more details about the methodology and results, they were recently published here.  If you can’t access that site, but would like a copy of the paper, just send me an e-mail.

After week #9 last season, my predictions of playoff teams were about 93% accurate.  Out of the teams listed below, you can expect that 90-95% will qualify for the postseason.  Roughly 85% of the teams ended up seeded within 1 line above or below where I had them seeded at this point, and about 60% of my week 9 seeds turned out to be exactly correct.  Overall, these projections are more accurate than the official current standings at projecting the playoff seeds.

Region 1 Projections
1) Mentor 35.50
2) St Edward (Lakewood) 29.72
3) South (Willoughby) 26.55
4) Solon 26.20
5) St Ignatius (Cleveland) 25.85
6) Cleveland Heights 24.77
7) Boardman (Youngstown) 20.87
8) John F Kennedy (Cleveland) 19.38

Region 2 Projections
1) Whitmer (Toledo) 31.35
2) Glenoak (Canton) 29.55
3) Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 29.00
4) Hudson 28.85
5) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 27.07
6) Findlay 26.00
7) Wadsworth 25.25
8) Avon Lake 22.95

Region 3 Projections
1) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 31.50
2) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 26.22
3) Westerville Central (Westerville) 25.45
4) Troy 25.00
5) Upper Arlington (Columbus) 24.90
6) Lincoln (Gahanna) 23.73
7) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 23.03
8) Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) 21.65

Region 4 Projections
1) Middletown 35.40
2) St Xavier (Cincinnati) 32.86
3) Colerain (Cincinnati) 30.61
4) Sycamore (Cincinnati) 26.70
5) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 26.60
6) Walnut Hills (Cincinnati) 21.50
7) Centerville 20.73
8) Lebanon 20.00

Region 5 Projections
1) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 25.99
2) Tallmadge 23.90
3) Aurora 22.45
4) Madison 22.35
5) Howland (Warren) 22.30
6) Canfield 20.87
7) New Philadelphia 20.37
8) West Geauga (Chesterland) 18.95

Region 6 Projections
1) Avon 30.05
2) Maple Heights 28.51
3) Sandusky 24.50
4) Central Catholic (Toledo) 22.45
5) Olmsted Falls 20.15
6) Highland (Medina) 20.00
7) Columbian (Tiffin) 19.30
8) Perrysburg 18.05

Region 7 Projections
1) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 29.15
2) Tri-Valley (Dresden) 26.05
3) New Albany 25.31
4) Beechcroft (Columbus) 23.18
5) Big Walnut (Sunbury) 22.90
6) Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 19.10
7) Ashland 18.20
8) Bellbrook 14.95

Region 8 Projections
1) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 34.40
2) Kings (Kings Mills) 33.85
3) Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 24.05
4) Franklin 23.40
5) Wapakoneta 22.15
6) Turpin (Cincinnati) 19.05
7) Harrison 17.00
8) Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 16.55

Region 9 Projections
1) Lake Catholic (Mentor) 28.38
2) Chagrin Falls 28.25
3) Ravenna 27.25
4) University School (Hunting Valley) 25.35
5) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 21.67
6) Southeast (Ravenna) 21.65
7) Benedictine (Cleveland) 20.79
8) Firelands (Oberlin) 19.50

Region 10 Projections
1) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 23.39
2) Clyde 21.20
3) Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 19.10
4) Bellevue 17.55
5) Elida 17.55
6) Urbana 15.85
7) Napoleon 13.50
8) River Valley (Caledonia) 12.70

Region 11 Projections
1) Steubenville 31.62
2) Dover 29.20
3) Minerva 27.50
4) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 24.99
5) Northwest (Canal Fulton) 21.83
6) Sheridan (Thornville) 21.40
7) Indian Creek (Wintersville) 20.66
8) Granville 19.45

Region 12 Projections
1) Shawnee (Springfield) 29.05
2) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 28.00
3) Logan Elm (Circleville) 26.45
4) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 24.91
5) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 24.85
6) Athens (The Plains) 24.10
7) Jackson 22.52
8) Taft (Cincinnati) 17.89

Region 13 Projections
1) Girard 22.05
2) Orrville 21.30
3) Norwayne (Creston) 17.95
4) Black River (Sullivan) 16.95
5) Manchester (Akron) 16.15
6) Brookfield 15.99
7) Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 14.72
8) Labrae (Leavittsburg) 14.00

Region 14 Projections
1) Kenton 28.55
2) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 26.83
3) Genoa Area (Genoa) 24.45
4) Eastwood (Pemberville) 23.10
5) Huron 19.60
6) North Union (Richwood) 19.20
7) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 18.85
8) Ontario (Mansfield) 17.05

Region 15 Projections
1) St Clairsville 23.49
2) Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 22.53
3) Coshocton 19.57
4) Martins Ferry 18.95
5) Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 17.64
6) Chesapeake 17.14
7) Ironton 16.49
8) Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 14.80

Region 16 Projections
1) Waynesville 26.00
2) Madeira (Cincinnati) 23.40
3) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 19.55
4) Westfall (Williamsport) 17.55
5) Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 17.34
6) North College Hill (Cincinnati) 17.09
7) Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 16.27
8) Milton-Union (West Milton) 15.90

Region 17 Projections
1) Kirtland 22.48
2) Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 19.01
3) Crestview (Columbiana) 16.65
4) Memorial (Campbell) 16.25
5) Garaway (Sugarcreek) 16.15
6) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 16.00
7) Springfield (New Middletown) 15.60
8) Columbiana 14.70

Region 18 Projections
1) Liberty Center 24.85
2) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 24.61
3) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 23.80
4) Northwood 18.15
5) Patrick Henry (Hamler) 17.45
6) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 16.50
7) Hicksville 16.00
8) Carey 15.04

Region 19 Projections
1) Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 24.55
2) Wynford (Bucyrus) 23.75
3) Valley (Lucasville) 23.65
4) Grandview Heights (Columbus) 19.75
5) Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 19.20
6) Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 19.00
7) Crestview (Ashland) 18.65
8) Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 17.80

Region 20 Projections
1) Pleasant (Marion) 21.10
2) West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 21.05
3) Adena (Frankfort) 19.10
4) Covington 18.35
5) Coldwater 17.55
6) West Jefferson 13.10
7) Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) 12.39
8) Triad (North Lewisburg) 11.95

Region 21 Projections
1) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 18.25
2) Shadyside 17.23
3) Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 16.99
4) Ledgemont (Thompson) 15.92
5) Malvern 14.40
6) Mogadore 13.10
7) Wellsville 9.65
8) John F Kennedy (Warren) 9.18

Region 22 Projections
1) Leipsic 17.90
2) St John’S (Delphos) 15.15
3) Calvert (Tiffin) 14.77
4) Edgerton 11.95
5) Mc Comb 11.45
6) Edon 11.29
7) Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 9.82
8) Arcadia 9.30

Region 23 Projections
1) Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 15.67
2) Buckeye Central (New Washington) 13.80
3) Beallsville 12.95
4) Danville 12.45
5) Notre Dame (Portsmouth) 12.13
6) Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 11.69
7) South Gallia (Crown City) 11.19
8) Trimble (Glouster) 11.09

Region 24 Projections
1) Marion Local (Maria Stein) 16.81
2) Fort Loramie 15.83
3) Catholic Central (Springfield) 14.80
4) Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 14.65
5) Ada 14.20
6) Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) 11.08
7) Lockland 9.92
8) Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 9.60

Home Game Odds

These numbers are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  For those interested in more details about the methodology and results, they were recently published here.  If you can’t access that site, but would like a copy of the paper, just send me an e-mail.

In parenthesis are conditional Harbin point values and conditional home game probabilities, based on how many games a team wins.  For example, 8W-24.6H-74% would mean that if that team wins exactly 8 games, they would have an estimated 24.6 Harbin points and a 74% chance of a hosting a first-round game.

After week #9 last season, my predictions of host teams were about 92% accurate.  Out of the teams listed in the top four within their region here, you can expect that 90-95% will end up having a home game in week 11.

Region 1 Home Game Probabilities
Mentor 100% (9W-31.4H-100% 10W-35.5H-100%)
St Edward (Lakewood) 80% (7W-25.3H-15% 8W-30.3H-100%)
Solon 68% (8W-25.5H-33% 9W-26.2H-68%)
South (Willoughby) 64% (8W-26.5H-82%)
Cleveland Heights 50% (8W-23.9H-1% 9W-29.6H-100%)
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 38% (7W-25.3H-20% 8W-30.0H-100%)

Region 2 Home Game Probabilities
Glenoak (Canton) 99% (8W-28.0H-92% 9W-29.6H-100%)
Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 99% (8W-26.9H-65% 9W-29.0H-100%)
Whitmer (Toledo) 90% (9W-26.6H-48% 10W-31.4H-100%)
Hudson 78% (8W-25.4H-5% 9W-28.9H-100%)
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 23% (8W-27.1H-32%)
Findlay 8% (9W-26.0H-10%)
Wadsworth 1% (9W-25.6H-1%)
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 1% (8W-24.8H-1%)

Region 3 Home Game Probabilities
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 99% (8W-26.3H-99% 9W-31.5H-100%)
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 90% (7W-26.2H-100%)
Westerville Central (Westerville) 69% (7W-23.0H-1% 8W-26.0H-89%)
Troy 51% (7W-24.5H-35% 8W-25.0H-51%)
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 48% (8W-22.4H-1% 9W-27.2H-100%)
Upper Arlington (Columbus) 41% (8W-25.5H-78%)
Lincoln (Gahanna) 2% (8W-23.7H-2%)
Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) 1% (8W-21.6H-1%)

Region 4 Home Game Probabilities
Middletown 100% (8W-30.6H-100% 9W-35.4H-100%)
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-29.2H-99% 8W-32.9H-100%)
Colerain (Cincinnati) 99% (8W-28.2H-84% 9W-31.2H-100%)
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 70% (7W-26.0H-47% 8W-31.5H-100%)
Sycamore (Cincinnati) 31% (8W-23.1H-1% 9W-27.3H-59%)
Mason 1% (7W-23.5H-1%)

Region 5 Home Game Probabilities
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 97% (7W-22.9H-80% 8W-26.5H-100%)
Aurora 80% (8W-19.2H-1% 9W-22.9H-92%)
Tallmadge 77% (7W-20.0H-1% 8W-23.9H-100%)
Madison 50% (7W-20.1H-2% 8W-22.4H-56%)
Howland (Warren) 49% (9W-22.3H-49%)
New Philadelphia 24% (7W-20.2H-1% 8W-25.0H-100%)
Roosevelt (Kent) 12% (9W-22.5H-69%)
Canfield 9% (7W-21.4H-17%)
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 1% (7W-20.8H-9%)

Region 6 Home Game Probabilities
Maple Heights 100% (8W-24.0H-100% 9W-29.8H-100%)
Avon 100% (9W-29.5H-100% 10W-34.0H-100%)
Central Catholic (Toledo) 99% (7W-22.0H-99% 8W-27.6H-100%)
Sandusky 85% (8W-21.0H-67% 9W-25.0H-100%)
Perrysburg 8% (7W-20.6H-15%)
Fremont Ross (Fremont) 4% (6W-21.4H-21%)
Olmsted Falls 2% (7W-20.7H-3%)
Highland (Medina) 1% (7W-20.0H-2%)
Columbian (Tiffin) 1% (8W-19.3H-1%)

Region 7 Home Game Probabilities
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 100% (10W-29.1H-100%)
New Albany 99% (7W-23.6H-74% 8W-25.3H-100%)
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 99% (8W-22.7H-18% 9W-26.0H-100%)
Beechcroft (Columbus) 54% (9W-23.2H-62%)
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 49% (7W-21.8H-13% 8W-22.9H-49%)

Region 8 Home Game Probabilities
Kings (Kings Mills) 100% (9W-29.5H-100% 10W-33.9H-100%)
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 100% (9W-30.5H-100% 10W-34.4H-100%)
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 98% (9W-24.0H-96% 10W-28.9H-100%)
Franklin 53% (8W-22.9H-53% 9W-23.4H-53%)
Wapakoneta 44% (9W-22.1H-1% 10W-26.9H-100%)
Turpin (Cincinnati) 5% (8W-24.8H-83%)
Butler (Vandalia) 1% (7W-21.7H-1%)

Region 9 Home Game Probabilities
Chagrin Falls 100% (9W-25.6H-100% 10W-28.3H-100%)
University School (Hunting Valley) 99% (8W-23.3H-70% 9W-25.4H-99%)
Ravenna 91% (8W-22.5H-48% 9W-27.3H-100%)
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 90% (8W-23.0H-59% 9W-28.4H-100%)
Benedictine (Cleveland) 10% (8W-23.6H-32%)
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 9% (8W-21.1H-1% 9W-23.2H-29%)
Southeast (Ravenna) 1% (10W-21.6H-1%)

Region 10 Home Game Probabilities
Clyde 100% (7W-18.5H-100% 8W-21.2H-100%)
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 99% (7W-17.7H-95% 8W-19.1H-100%)
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 99% (5W-19.3H-99% 6W-23.9H-100%)
Bellevue 61% (7W-17.0H-29% 8W-21.9H-100%)
Elida 39% (7W-17.5H-44%)

Region 11 Home Game Probabilities
Dover 100% (8W-25.0H-100% 9W-29.2H-100%)
Minerva 100% (9W-26.0H-100% 10W-27.5H-100%)
Steubenville 100% (9W-30.9H-100% 10W-31.6H-100%)
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 98% (5W-23.2H-83% 6W-25.2H-100%)
Northwest (Canal Fulton) 1% (8W-21.8H-1%)
Poland Seminary (Poland) 1% (7W-22.2H-2%)
Sheridan (Thornville) 1% (9W-21.5H-1%)

Region 12 Home Game Probabilities
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 99% (9W-26.0H-97% 10W-28.0H-100%)
Shawnee (Springfield) 74% (9W-23.9H-34% 10W-29.0H-100%)
Logan Elm (Circleville) 70% (9W-22.6H-4% 10W-26.5H-99%)
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 67% (9W-24.9H-67%)
Athens (The Plains) 53% (9W-23.1H-10% 10W-27.5H-100%)
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 37% (10W-24.9H-57%)

Region 13 Home Game Probabilities
Girard 100% (8W-21.6H-100% 9W-22.0H-100%)
Orrville 100% (6W-18.8H-100% 7W-21.4H-100%)
Norwayne (Creston) 99% (8W-17.5H-99% 9W-21.5H-100%)
Black River (Sullivan) 70% (7W-16.1H-36% 8W-17.0H-70%)
Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 20% (9W-16.6H-43%)
Brookfield 10% (8W-15.3H-1% 9W-16.3H-10%)
Manchester (Akron) 1% (7W-16.3H-2%)
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 1% (7W-15.4H-1%)

Region 14 Home Game Probabilities
Kenton 100% (9W-24.0H-100% 10W-28.9H-100%)
Eastwood (Pemberville) 100% (9W-23.0H-100% 10W-27.5H-100%)
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 100% (8W-24.4H-100% 9W-26.8H-100%)
Genoa Area (Genoa) 99% (9W-20.5H-99% 10W-25.0H-100%)
Huron 1% (9W-19.6H-1%)

Region 15 Home Game Probabilities
St Clairsville 100% (8W-23.0H-100% 9W-23.5H-100%)
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 100% (9W-21.4H-100% 10W-22.5H-100%)
Coshocton 93% (7W-18.3H-68% 8W-19.6H-94%)
Martins Ferry 62% (7W-16.3H-1% 8W-19.0H-76%)
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 39% (7W-17.2H-10% 8W-22.3H-100%)
Chesapeake 6% (8W-17.6H-10%)
Ironton 1% (6W-16.6H-1%)

Region 16 Home Game Probabilities
Madeira (Cincinnati) 100% (9W-20.3H-100% 10W-23.5H-100%)
Waynesville 100% (9W-23.8H-100% 10W-26.0H-100%)
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 84% (8W-19.5H-98%)
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 40% (7W-17.3H-7% 8W-22.3H-100%)
Westfall (Williamsport) 38% (7W-17.1H-8% 8W-17.5H-38%)
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 35% (8W-19.4H-72%)
East Clinton (Lees Creek) 2% (8W-17.0H-15%)
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 1% (8W-17.1H-1%)

Region 17 Home Game Probabilities
Kirtland 100% (10W-22.5H-100%)
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 100% (8W-18.3H-100% 9W-19.0H-100%)
Crestview (Columbiana) 78% (8W-15.5H-7% 9W-16.6H-79%)
Memorial (Campbell) 56% (8W-16.3H-62%)
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 33% (9W-16.0H-35%)
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 25% (8W-16.1H-32%)
Springfield (New Middletown) 6% (8W-15.6H-9%)
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 1% (6W-15.4H-2%)
Columbiana 1% (8W-14.7H-1%)
Southern (Salineville) 1% (9W-14.7H-1%)

Region 18 Home Game Probabilities
Liberty Center 100% (9W-21.9H-100% 10W-25.2H-100%)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 100% (9W-20.4H-100% 10W-23.8H-100%)
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 100% (9W-23.5H-100% 10W-24.6H-100%)
Northwood 90% (8W-17.1H-11% 9W-18.1H-90%)
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 10% (8W-17.5H-11%)
Archbold 1% (8W-16.4H-1%)
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 1% (9W-16.5H-1%)

Region 19 Home Game Probabilities
Wynford (Bucyrus) 100% (9W-23.0H-100% 10W-23.8H-100%)
Valley (Lucasville) 100% (9W-21.5H-100% 10W-23.6H-100%)
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 97% (9W-20.4H-94% 10W-25.1H-100%)
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 60% (10W-20.3H-93%)
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 26% (9W-19.6H-46%)
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 10% (10W-19.4H-19%)
Crestview (Ashland) 7% (10W-18.6H-7%)
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 1% (8W-17.8H-1%)
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 1% (9W-17.1H-1%)

Region 20 Home Game Probabilities
Pleasant (Marion) 100% (10W-21.1H-100%)
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 99% (9W-18.4H-98% 10W-21.5H-100%)
Covington 98% (9W-16.1H-28% 10W-18.4H-100%)
Adena (Frankfort) 94% (8W-16.5H-30% 9W-19.1H-100%)
Coldwater 9% (8W-17.5H-12%)
Triad (North Lewisburg) 1% (8W-16.0H-1%)

Region 21 Home Game Probabilities
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 100% (9W-16.1H-100% 10W-18.3H-100%)
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 99% (8W-16.0H-99% 9W-17.4H-100%)
Ledgemont (Thompson) 99% (9W-14.5H-51% 10W-15.9H-99%)
Shadyside 67% (6W-14.1H-21% 7W-17.6H-100%)
Malvern 33% (8W-13.1H-1% 9W-14.7H-37%)
Mogadore 1% (7W-13.1H-1%)
John F Kennedy (Warren) 1% (6W-12.4H-1%)

Region 22 Home Game Probabilities
Leipsic 100% (8W-15.1H-100% 9W-17.9H-100%)
St John’S (Delphos) 99% (6W-14.8H-99% 7W-15.1H-99%)
Calvert (Tiffin) 99% (7W-14.0H-94% 8W-14.8H-99%)
Edgerton 44% (7W-11.2H-16% 8W-14.2H-73%)
Mc Comb 42% (7W-11.4H-19% 8W-14.7H-98%)
Edon 14% (7W-11.6H-19%)

Region 23 Home Game Probabilities
Beallsville 94% (7W-12.6H-81% 8W-13.0H-94%)
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 93% (8W-12.8H-75% 9W-15.8H-100%)
Buckeye Central (New Washington) 84% (7W-11.5H-1% 8W-13.8H-100%)
Danville 44% (6W-11.6H-4% 7W-12.4H-51%)
Notre Dame (Portsmouth) 39% (8W-12.5H-56%)
South Gallia (Crown City) 27% (7W-10.8H-1% 8W-14.3H-100%)
Sciotoville Community (Portsmouth) 12% (7W-12.3H-40%)
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 7% (6W-12.0H-8%)
Trimble (Glouster) 1% (7W-11.1H-1%)

Region 24 Home Game Probabilities
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 99% (7W-15.0H-95% 8W-16.8H-100%)
Catholic Central (Springfield) 99% (7W-14.1H-69% 8W-14.8H-99%)
Fort Loramie 99% (8W-14.4H-83% 9W-15.8H-100%)
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 64% (8W-14.6H-85%)
Ada 38% (8W-13.9H-32% 9W-18.0H-100%)

Regional Championship Odds

These odds are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season and playoffs.  The numbers are the relative likelihood that a team will not or will win the championship.  For example, 5:2 odds mean a 2/7 chance of that team winning the championship.  These odds are not intended to encourage any form of gambling, but rather for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Region 1 Championship Odds
St Edward (Lakewood) 1:1
Mentor 8:5
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 9:1
Solon 40:1
Cleveland Heights 200:1
Boardman (Youngstown) 300:1

Region 2 Championship Odds
Whitmer (Toledo) 7:5
Glenoak (Canton) 7:2
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 4:1
Findlay 11:1
Wadsworth 22:1
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 45:1
Hudson 60:1
Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 80:1
Jackson (Massillon) 500:1

Region 3 Championship Odds
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 6:5
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 5:2
Lincoln (Gahanna) 9:1
Troy 13:1
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 22:1
Upper Arlington (Columbus) 40:1
Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) 70:1
Westerville Central (Westerville) 120:1

Region 4 Championship Odds
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 1:1
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 2:1
Colerain (Cincinnati) 7:1
Middletown 14:1
Centerville 140:1
Sycamore (Cincinnati) 250:1

Region 5 Championship Odds
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 9:5
Tallmadge 7:2
Aurora 7:2
Howland (Warren) 9:1
Madison 35:1
Canfield 40:1
West Geauga (Chesterland) 45:1
New Philadelphia 70:1
Roosevelt (Kent) 130:1
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 450:1

Region 6 Championship Odds
Central Catholic (Toledo) 2:1
Maple Heights 2:1
Avon 4:1
Sandusky 12:1
Highland (Medina) 25:1
Columbian (Tiffin) 45:1
Shaw (East Cleveland) 110:1
Fremont Ross (Fremont) 130:1
Perrysburg 180:1
Olmsted Falls 200:1
Maumee 450:1

Region 7 Championship Odds
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 3:1
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 3:1
New Albany 7:2
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 6:1
Ashland 14:1
Beechcroft (Columbus) 19:1
Brookhaven (Columbus) 90:1
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 350:1

Region 8 Championship Odds
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 3:4
Kings (Kings Mills) 2:1
Wapakoneta 11:1
Harrison 50:1
Turpin (Cincinnati) 250:1
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 300:1

Region 9 Championship Odds
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 4:3
Chagrin Falls 2:1
Ravenna 6:1
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 21:1
Benedictine (Cleveland) 24:1
University School (Hunting Valley) 65:1
Southeast (Ravenna) 350:1

Region 10 Championship Odds
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 3:5
Clyde 8:1
Elida 8:1
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 11:1
Bellevue 16:1
Napoleon 100:1
Urbana 180:1
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 300:1

Region 11 Championship Odds
Steubenville 1:1
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 5:2
Minerva 7:1
Dover 14:1
Northwest (Canal Fulton) 45:1
Sheridan (Thornville) 200:1
Marlington (Alliance) 300:1
Granville 350:1

Region 12 Championship Odds
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 5:2
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 5:2
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 5:1
Jackson 8:1
Shawnee (Springfield) 11:1
Logan Elm (Circleville) 19:1
Athens (The Plains) 75:1
Taft (Cincinnati) 450:1

Region 13 Championship Odds
Girard 3:2
Orrville 4:1
Norwayne (Creston) 6:1
Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 9:1
Brookfield 9:1
Manchester (Akron) 35:1
Labrae (Leavittsburg) 40:1
Black River (Sullivan) 100:1
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 200:1

Region 14 Championship Odds
Kenton 1:1
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 9:5
Eastwood (Pemberville) 17:1
Genoa Area (Genoa) 17:1
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 24:1
North Union (Richwood) 160:1
Huron 180:1

Region 15 Championship Odds
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 4:3
Coshocton 5:1
St Clairsville 5:1
Ironton 7:1
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 13:1
Martins Ferry 21:1
Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 120:1
Chesapeake 160:1

Region 16 Championship Odds
Waynesville 7:5
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 9:5
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 6:1
Madeira (Cincinnati) 23:1
Milton-Union (West Milton) 30:1
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 180:1
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 400:1
Westfall (Williamsport) 400:1

Region 17 Championship Odds
Kirtland 4:5
Crestview (Columbiana) 6:1
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 11:1
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 13:1
Memorial (Campbell) 15:1
Ursuline (Youngstown) 45:1 (if Ursuline gets a berth, they become the odds-on favorite)
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 45:1
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 70:1
Columbiana 75:1
Springfield (New Middletown) 250:1

Region 18 Championship Odds
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 3:4
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 5:1
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 8:1
Liberty Center 9:1
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 65:1
Hicksville 110:1
Northwood 250:1
Archbold 250:1
Carey 350:1

Region 19 Championship Odds
Valley (Lucasville) 3:1
Wynford (Bucyrus) 3:1
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 4:1
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 12:1
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 12:1
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 19:1
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 20:1
Crestview (Ashland) 55:1
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 70:1
Wheelersburg 120:1
Smithville 300:1

Region 20 Championship Odds
Coldwater 3:4
Pleasant (Marion) 7:2
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 13:1
Versailles 14:1
West Jefferson 25:1
Adena (Frankfort) 50:1
Covington 65:1

Region 21 Championship Odds
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 9:5
Shadyside 6:1
Malvern 6:1
Mogadore 6:1
Ledgemont (Thompson) 9:1
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 9:1
John F Kennedy (Warren) 75:1
Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) 90:1
Strasburg-Franklin (Strasburg) 200:1

Region 22 Championship Odds
St John’s (Delphos) 1:2
Leipsic 3:1
Mc Comb 30:1
Calvert (Tiffin) 50:1
Edgerton 140:1

Region 23 Championship Odds
Buckeye Central (New Washington) 2:1
Danville 2:1
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 6:1
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 12:1
Beallsville 15:1
Trimble (Glouster) 25:1
South Gallia (Crown City) 80:1
Notre Dame (Portsmouth) 100:1
Newark Catholic (Newark) 100:1

Region 24 Championship Odds
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 3:4
Ada 5:1
Catholic Central (Springfield) 10:1
Fort Loramie 10:1
Minster 11:1

State Championship Odds

These odds are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season and playoffs.  The numbers are the relative likelihood that a team will not or will win the championship.  For example, 5:2 odds mean a 2/7 chance of that team winning the championship.  These odds are not intended to encourage any form of gambling, but rather for informational and entertainment purposes only.  Only teams with odds of 500:1 or better are listed.

In 2010, five of the six state champions were listed in the top two of their division in these odds at the end of the regular season (St. Edward 1st at 9:5, Maple Heights 2nd at 9:1, Bishop Watterson 2nd at 7:2, Ursuline 1st at 1:4, and Delphos St. John’s 1st at 2:5).  However, in Division IV, Bishop Hartley was quite a long-shot listed 17th (of 32 teams) most likely to win that title, at 120:1.

Also in 2009, five of the six state champions were listed in the top two of their division in these odds (Winton Woods – tied for 2nd at 6:1, Cardinal Mooney 1st at 6:5, Archbishop Alter 1st at 4:5, Ursuline 1st at 2:1, and Norwalk St. Paul 2nd at 6:1).  The one surprise was D-I champ Hilliard Davidson, listed 9th at 25:1.

Division I State Championship Odds
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 3:1
St Edward (Lakewood) 3:1
Mentor 5:1
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 7:1
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 14:1
Whitmer (Toledo) 25:1
Colerain (Cincinnati) 35:1
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 35:1
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 45:1
Middletown 90:1
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 95:1
Glenoak (Canton) 110:1
Lincoln (Gahanna) 250:1
Solon 450:1

Division II State Championship Odds
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 3:2
Kings (Kings Mills) 5:1
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 10:1
Central Catholic (Toledo) 17:1
Maple Heights 19:1
Aurora 24:1
Tallmadge 24:1
Wapakoneta 35:1
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 40:1
Avon 40:1
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 50:1
New Albany 60:1
Howland (Warren) 90:1
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 140:1
Harrison 250:1
Sandusky 250:1
Ashland 450:1

Division III State Championship Odds
Steubenville 3:1
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 4:1
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 7:1
Chagrin Falls 8:1
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 9:1
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 19:1
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 23:1
Ravenna 30:1
Minerva 45:1
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 70:1
Dover 110:1
Jackson 130:1
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 160:1
Elida 170:1
Benedictine (Cleveland) 190:1
Clyde 250:1
Shawnee (Springfield) 300:1
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 350:1
Northwest (Canal Fulton) 500:1

Division IV State Championship Odds
Kenton 2:1
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 7:2
Waynesville 8:1
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 11:1
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 11:1
Girard 25:1
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 55:1
Eastwood (Pemberville) 60:1
Genoa Area (Genoa) 60:1
Coshocton 65:1
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 75:1
Orrville 90:1
St Clairsville 100:1
Ironton 100:1
Norwayne (Creston) 190:1
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 300:1
Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 400:1
Brookfield 500:1

Division V State Championship Odds
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 9:5
Kirtland 5:1
Coldwater 5:1
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 15:1
Valley (Lucasville) 30:1
Wynford (Bucyrus) 30:1
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 35:1
Pleasant (Marion) 35:1
Liberty Center 40:1
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 45:1
Crestview (Columbiana) 55:1
Ursuline (Youngstown) 85:1 (if Ursuline gets in, they become the favorite, at 2:1)
Versailles 140:1
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 150:1
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 160:1
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 200:1
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 250:1
Memorial (Campbell) 250:1
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 300:1
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 450:1

Division VI State Championship Odds
St John’S (Delphos) 1:1
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 3:1
Leipsic 7:1
Ada 30:1
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 30:1
Minster 50:1
Catholic Central (Springfield) 90:1
Fort Loramie 110:1
Buckeye Central (New Washington) 130:1
Shadyside 130:1
Mc Comb 140:1
Malvern 150:1
Danville 160:1
Mogadore 180:1
Ledgemont (Thompson) 250:1
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 350:1
Calvert (Tiffin) 350:1

State Championship Odds by Region  (during week #9)

Division I
Region 1 – 42%
Region 2 – 6%
Region 3 – 10%
Region 4 – 42%

Division II
Region 5 – 19%
Region 6 – 14%
Region 7 – 7%
Region 8 – 60%

Division III
Region 9 – 35%
Region 10 – 14%
Region 11 – 39%
Region 12 – 12%

Division IV
Region 13 – 6%
Region 14 – 61%
Region 15 – 12%
Region 16 – 21%

Division V

Region 17 – 22%
Region 18 – 48%
Region 19 – 10%
Region 20 – 20%

Division VI
Region 21 – 6%
Region 22 – 61%
Region 23 – 2%
Region 24 – 31%

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