The Fantastic 50: Week 9 Playoff Odds

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Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

Based on Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 formula, here’s a look at the
2011 postseason odds –
Who gets in, who hosts and who advances…there
are just three weeks left until the postseason starts!


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

This Week’s Fantastic 50

_____________________________________________________________________

This Week’s
Game Predictions

_____________________________________________________________________

Who gets in? Who Hosts? Who advances?

Playoff Berth Odds

These numbers are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the
regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  For those
interested in more details about the methodology and results, they were
recently published here.  If you can’t access that site, but would like a
copy of the paper, just send me an e-mail.

In parenthesis are conditional Harbin point values and conditional
playoff probabilities, based on how many games a team wins.  For
example, 7W-18.9H-63% would mean that if that team wins exactly 7 games,
they would have an estimated 18.9 Harbin points and a 63% chance of
earning a berth.

After week #8 in previous seasons, my predictions of playoff teams were
about 90% accurate.  Out of the teams listed in the top eight within
their region here, you can expect that roughly 90% will qualify for the
postseason.


Region 1 Playoff Berth Probabilities

St Ignatius (Cleveland) 100% (7W-25.3H-100% 8W-29.7H-100% 9W-34.2H-100%)
Mentor 100% (9W-31.5H-100% 10W-35.7H-100%)
Solon 100% (7W-20.8H-100% 8W-22.0H-100% 9W-26.6H-100%)
Cleveland Heights 99% (7W-21.3H-99% 8W-23.3H-100% 9W-28.6H-100%)
South (Willoughby) 99% (6W-19.6H-97% 7W-22.5H-100% 8W-26.5H-100%)
St Edward (Lakewood) 95% (6W-18.7H-74% 7W-23.7H-100% 8W-29.0H-100%)
John F Kennedy (Cleveland) 89% (7W-17.3H-48% 8W-18.4H-72% 9W-19.1H-91%)
Boardman (Youngstown) 89% (6W-17.3H-27% 7W-21.4H-100% 8W-25.7H-100%)
North (Eastlake) 11% (7W-14.6H-1% 8W-19.1H-59%)
Mayfield 11% (5W-13.5H-1% 6W-18.1H-24%)
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 3% (6W-17.4H-3%)
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 1% (6W-12.8H-1% 7W-17.0H-6%)
North Royalton 1% (6W-17.5H-7%)
Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights) 1% (6W-15.9H-1%)
Parma 1% (6W-15.4H-1%)


Region 2 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Glenoak (Canton) 100% (7W-26.4H-100% 8W-28.3H-100% 9W-30.0H-100%)
Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 100% (7W-25.2H-100% 8W-26.9H-100%
9W-29.0H-100%)
Whitmer (Toledo) 99% (8W-25.4H-100% 9W-26.6H-99% 10W-31.3H-100%)
Hudson 89% (7W-20.1H-6% 8W-24.1H-88% 9W-28.3H-100%)
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 73% (7W-19.9H-3% 8W-24.9H-98%
9W-29.7H-100%)
Wadsworth 64% (7W-19.5H-1% 8W-20.9H-17% 9W-25.3H-99%)
Findlay 64% (7W-18.4H-1% 8W-22.3H-40% 9W-26.1H-99%)
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 62% (7W-22.8H-59% 8W-27.6H-100%)
North Ridgeville 51% (8W-19.4H-1% 9W-23.5H-84%)
Avon Lake 36% (7W-18.9H-2% 8W-23.5H-74%)
Anthony Wayne (Whitehouse) 22% (7W-18.8H-1% 8W-22.8H-49%)
Jackson (Massillon) 20% (6W-20.4H-4% 7W-22.1H-27%)
Brunswick 11% (7W-20.0H-3% 8W-25.1H-99%)
Elyria 7% (8W-17.5H-1% 9W-22.3H-42%)
Twinsburg 1% (6W-15.9H-1% 7W-22.3H-20%)
St John’S Jesuit (Toledo) 1% (8W-20.6H-3%)
Lorain 1% (6W-19.4H-1%)
Green 1% (7W-18.2H-1%)


Region 3 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Westerville Central (Westerville) 100% (7W-23.0H-100% 8W-26.0H-100%
9W-29.0H-100%)
Troy 100% (7W-23.2H-100% 8W-25.0H-100%)
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 99% (7W-20.4H-61% 8W-25.7H-100%
9W-31.0H-100%)
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 99% (7W-19.5H-27% 8W-21.8H-99% 9W-26.7H-100%)
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 98% (5W-18.9H-8% 6W-21.6H-86%
7W-26.2H-100%)
Upper Arlington (Columbus) 83% (7W-19.6H-49% 8W-25.0H-100%
9W-30.3H-100%)
Lincoln (Gahanna) 68% (7W-18.9H-15% 8W-23.1H-100%)
Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) 61% (7W-17.0H-4% 8W-21.6H-85%)
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 52% (7W-18.1H-5% 8W-20.6H-55%)
Westerville South (Westerville) 30% (6W-18.3H-3% 7W-21.9H-94%)
Reynoldsburg 6% (7W-18.3H-5% 8W-22.5H-100%)
Bradley (Hilliard) 5% (7W-14.8H-1% 8W-19.4H-25%)
Olentangy (Lewis Center) 1% (6W-17.8H-1%)
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 1% (8W-17.6H-1%)
Olentangy Liberty (Powell) 1% (6W-17.1H-1%)


Region 4 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 100% (7W-26.3H-100% 8W-30.8H-100%
9W-36.9H-100%)
Colerain (Cincinnati) 100% (7W-25.1H-100% 8W-28.1H-100% 9W-30.7H-100%)
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 100% (6W-24.3H-100% 7W-28.9H-100% 8W-33.1H-100%)
Middletown 100% (7W-25.9H-100% 8W-30.0H-100% 9W-34.8H-100%)
Sycamore (Cincinnati) 98% (7W-20.9H-82% 8W-23.1H-100% 9W-27.3H-100%)
La Salle (Cincinnati) 85% (6W-18.9H-21% 7W-21.6H-89% 8W-23.5H-99%)
Walnut Hills (Cincinnati) 79% (6W-17.7H-7% 7W-19.2H-29% 8W-21.0H-84%)
Mason 68% (6W-18.1H-4% 7W-23.0H-99% 8W-28.4H-100%)
Centerville 38% (6W-16.7H-2% 7W-20.3H-48%)
Princeton (Cincinnati) 25% (6W-16.5H-1% 7W-20.0H-36% 8W-24.8H-100%)
Lebanon 6% (6W-16.5H-1% 7W-19.5H-16%)
Wayne (Huber Heights) 1% (6W-17.2H-1%)
Lakota East (Liberty Township) 1% (6W-17.4H-1%)
Beavercreek 1% (7W-17.0H-1%)
Loveland 1% (5W-17.0H-1%)
Fairborn 1% (8W-16.6H-1%)


Region 5 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 99% (6W-21.8H-99% 7W-23.6H-99%
8W-27.2H-100%)
Howland (Warren) 99% (8W-21.2H-100% 9W-21.8H-99%)
Canfield 97% (6W-17.9H-34% 7W-20.9H-97% 8W-24.4H-100%)
Aurora 97% (7W-18.4H-50% 8W-19.3H-64% 9W-22.4H-99%)
Madison 96% (6W-18.5H-46% 7W-19.5H-78% 8W-21.8H-99%)
Tallmadge 90% (6W-16.7H-1% 7W-20.5H-89% 8W-24.0H-100%)
West Geauga (Chesterland) 88% (7W-19.0H-66% 8W-22.0H-99%)
New Philadelphia 86% (6W-18.3H-42% 7W-19.9H-83% 8W-24.6H-100%)
Roosevelt (Kent) 25% (7W-16.9H-1% 8W-17.8H-6% 9W-22.5H-99%)
Copley 18% (6W-16.1H-1% 7W-20.6H-89%)
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 2% (7W-20.5H-99%)
Alliance 1% (7W-19.4H-42%)


Region 6 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Avon 100% (8W-25.3H-100% 9W-29.5H-100% 10W-34.0H-100%)
Central Catholic (Toledo) 99% (6W-20.4H-98% 7W-22.5H-99% 8W-28.2H-100%)
Maple Heights 99% (7W-19.6H-90% 8W-23.3H-99% 9W-29.0H-100%)
Highland (Medina) 94% (6W-17.5H-42% 7W-20.0H-95% 8W-25.2H-100%)
Olmsted Falls 88% (6W-17.2H-18% 7W-20.8H-99% 8W-24.9H-100%)
Columbian (Tiffin) 82% (7W-15.7H-1% 8W-19.5H-84% 9W-24.1H-100%)
Sandusky 81% (7W-16.3H-7% 8W-20.6H-96% 9W-25.0H-100%)
Maumee 54% (7W-17.9H-43% 8W-22.3H-99%)
Fremont Ross (Fremont) 41% (5W-15.6H-2% 6W-17.3H-14% 7W-22.4H-99%)
Perrysburg 29% (6W-16.4H-6% 7W-20.6H-96%)
Midview (Grafton) 23% (8W-18.0H-38% 9W-23.2H-99%)
Shaw (East Cleveland) 6% (6W-18.2H-31%)
Bedford 2% (5W-13.4H-1% 6W-17.9H-25%)
Bowling Green 1% (7W-16.7H-4%)
Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) 1% (5W-16.4H-2%)
Madison Comprehensive (Mansfield) 1% (8W-16.2H-1%)


Region 7 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 100% (9W-24.6H-100% 10W-29.3H-100%)
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 100% (7W-18.4H-100% 8W-21.2H-100% 9W-26.0H-100%)
New Albany 100% (6W-20.7H-100% 7W-22.5H-100% 8W-24.7H-100%)
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 100% (7W-21.8H-100% 8W-23.4H-100%)
Beechcroft (Columbus) 99% (7W-16.8H-83% 8W-19.4H-99% 9W-23.2H-100%)
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 81% (5W-14.6H-20% 6W-16.3H-79% 7W-20.1H-100%)
Ashland 65% (5W-14.4H-15% 6W-18.2H-99%)
Brookhaven (Columbus) 44% (7W-14.9H-23% 8W-19.8H-100%)
Zanesville 38% (6W-12.2H-1% 7W-16.3H-70%)
Mifflin (Columbus) 32% (8W-13.8H-3% 9W-18.0H-99%)
Teays Valley (Ashville) 24% (4W-11.9H-1% 5W-12.4H-1% 6W-16.2H-60%)
Bellbrook 16% (5W-13.1H-3% 6W-15.1H-20%)
Wooster 1% (5W-14.6H-5%)
Canal Winchester 1% (7W-13.7H-1%)
West (Columbus) 1% (7W-12.3H-1%)


Region 8 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Kings (Kings Mills) 100% (8W-24.9H-100% 9W-29.2H-100% 10W-33.3H-100%)
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 100% (9W-30.5H-100% 10W-34.4H-100%)
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 99% (8W-20.1H-99% 9W-24.5H-100% 10W-29.4H-100%)
Wapakoneta 99% (8W-19.4H-99% 9W-22.1H-100% 10W-26.9H-100%)
Franklin 99% (7W-19.4H-99% 8W-19.9H-99% 9W-23.4H-100%)
Turpin (Cincinnati) 99% (6W-18.0H-97% 7W-19.0H-99% 8W-24.8H-100%)
Ross (Hamilton) 61% (7W-14.8H-1% 8W-16.9H-54% 9W-21.0H-99%)
Harrison 54% (6W-14.1H-1% 7W-17.0H-70%)
Butler (Vandalia) 50% (6W-15.9H-8% 7W-18.9H-97% 8W-24.5H-100%)
Anderson (Cincinnati) 23% (4W-13.8H-1% 5W-16.8H-30% 6W-20.3H-99%)
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 11% (8W-16.5H-19%)
Wilmington 1% (7W-12.8H-1% 8W-18.5H-81%)
Northwest (Cincinnati) 1% (7W-15.1H-1%)
Piqua 1% (6W-14.3H-1%)

Region 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Chagrin Falls 100% (9W-26.3H-100% 10W-28.7H-100%)
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 100% (7W-21.4H-100% 8W-22.9H-100% 9W-28.3H-100%)
University School (Hunting Valley) 99% (7W-21.0H-99% 8W-23.0H-100%
9W-25.9H-100%)
Ravenna 99% (7W-19.0H-88% 8W-22.4H-100% 9W-27.1H-100%)
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 96% (7W-18.4H-66% 8W-21.7H-99% 9W-23.8H-100%)
Southeast (Ravenna) 94% (8W-15.6H-12% 9W-18.2H-81% 10W-21.4H-100%)
Benedictine (Cleveland) 87% (6W-17.2H-54% 7W-20.4H-99% 8W-23.6H-100%)
Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) 56% (6W-14.0H-1% 7W-16.6H-36%
8W-19.9H-98%)
Firelands (Oberlin) 36% (9W-15.1H-1% 10W-19.1H-78%)
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 16% (6W-16.6H-19% 7W-20.7H-99%)
Buchtel (Akron) 11% (6W-14.6H-1% 7W-18.8H-71%)
Jefferson Area (Jefferson) 4% (7W-15.2H-2% 8W-16.2H-5%)
Niles Mc Kinley (Niles) 1% (6W-16.2H-5%)
John Hay (Cleveland) 1% (6W-13.5H-1% 7W-16.7H-16%)


Region 10 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Bellevue 100% (6W-16.2H-100% 7W-17.1H-100% 8W-21.9H-100%)
Clyde 100% (6W-16.5H-100% 7W-19.0H-100% 8W-21.3H-100%)
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 100% (7W-17.3H-100% 8W-18.6H-100%
9W-23.9H-100%)
Elida 99% (5W-14.6H-98% 6W-16.1H-99% 7W-18.1H-100%)
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 99% (4W-14.4H-97% 5W-19.0H-100%
6W-23.6H-100%)
Urbana 91% (6W-11.1H-8% 7W-13.1H-71% 8W-15.0H-99%)
Independence (Columbus) 57% (5W-10.2H-1% 6W-13.1H-55% 7W-15.6H-99%)
Napoleon 50% (4W-11.3H-3% 5W-13.9H-86%)
River Valley (Caledonia) 40% (6W-11.6H-7% 7W-12.8H-43%)
Port Clinton 21% (5W-11.1H-1% 6W-14.9H-97% 7W-18.6H-100%)
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 17% (4W-10.9H-6% 5W-16.4H-99%)
Shawnee (Lima) 10% (5W-10.4H-3% 6W-14.9H-97%)
Bexley (Columbus) 6% (6W-10.4H-1% 7W-13.6H-60%)
Bryan 4% (7W-10.1H-1% 8W-11.7H-5%)
Buckeye Valley (Delaware) 4% (6W-9.4H-1% 7W-12.8H-28%)
Wauseon 1% (7W-12.6H-20%)
Defiance 1% (5W-10.7H-1% 6W-15.4H-99%)
Whitehall-Yearling (Whitehall) 1% (6W-11.2H-1%)


Region 11 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Dover 100% (7W-23.4H-100% 8W-24.9H-100% 9W-29.1H-100%)
Minerva 100% (8W-23.0H-100% 9W-25.0H-100% 10W-27.9H-100%)
Steubenville 100% (8W-25.7H-100% 9W-26.5H-100% 10W-31.2H-100%)
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 99% (5W-22.3H-99% 6W-24.5H-100%
7W-26.5H-100%)
Sheridan (Thornville) 93% (8W-17.5H-26% 9W-21.4H-99% 10W-25.8H-100%)
Northwest (Canal Fulton) 89% (6W-16.4H-11% 7W-18.0H-51% 8W-21.3H-99%)
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 60% (7W-17.2H-18% 8W-20.2H-92%)
Poland Seminary (Poland) 53% (5W-16.8H-12% 6W-17.8H-28% 7W-22.0H-100%)
Granville 53% (8W-16.6H-4% 9W-19.5H-74%)
Marlington (Alliance) 51% (7W-16.9H-7% 8W-19.8H-74%)
Licking Valley (Newark) 1% (7W-16.4H-1%)
West Holmes (Millersburg) 1% (7W-16.1H-1%)
Cambridge 1% (8W-15.4H-1%)
Claymont (Uhrichsville) 1% (8W-15.3H-1%)
New Lexington 1% (8W-15.7H-1%)
West Branch (Beloit) 1% (6W-16.1H-1%)


Region 12 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 100% (8W-21.9H-100% 9W-25.5H-100%)
Shawnee (Springfield) 100% (8W-23.4H-100% 9W-24.0H-100% 10W-29.0H-100%)
Logan Elm (Circleville) 100% (8W-21.1H-100% 9W-22.7H-100%
10W-26.5H-100%)
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 100% (8W-23.8H-100% 9W-26.0H-100%
10W-28.5H-100%)
Athens (The Plains) 99% (8W-19.8H-99% 9W-22.5H-100% 10W-26.8H-100%)
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 99% (8W-18.8H-99% 9W-21.2H-100%
10W-24.9H-100%)
Jackson 98% (8W-16.6H-30% 9W-18.4H-85% 10W-21.5H-100%)
Taft (Cincinnati) 37% (6W-14.0H-1% 7W-17.9H-67%)
Kenton Ridge (Springfield) 30% (8W-16.3H-24% 9W-20.9H-100%)
New Richmond 20% (6W-14.9H-6% 7W-15.4H-10% 8W-16.5H-21%)
Dunbar (Dayton) 11% (6W-13.1H-1% 7W-17.7H-57%)
Gallia Academy (Gallipolis) 3% (6W-12.9H-1% 7W-17.9H-78%)
Indian Hill (Cincinnati) 1% (6W-14.9H-1% 7W-15.7H-1%)
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 1% (7W-15.6H-1%)
Eaton 1% (8W-14.6H-1%)


Region 13 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Girard 100% (7W-18.8H-100% 8W-19.3H-100% 9W-22.2H-100%)
Norwayne (Creston) 100% (8W-17.5H-100% 9W-20.8H-100% 10W-24.7H-100%)
Black River (Sullivan) 99% (7W-16.1H-100% 8W-16.5H-99% 9W-21.1H-100%)
Orrville 99% (5W-16.1H-99% 6W-18.4H-100% 7W-20.9H-100%)
Brookfield 99% (7W-14.0H-83% 8W-15.4H-97% 9W-16.5H-99%)
Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 90% (7W-13.4H-54% 8W-14.1H-82%
9W-17.0H-99%)
Labrae (Leavittsburg) 90% (5W-12.9H-49% 6W-14.5H-88% 7W-18.6H-100%)
Manchester (Akron) 71% (5W-11.4H-1% 6W-12.9H-43% 7W-16.6H-99%)
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 42% (5W-11.6H-1% 6W-12.7H-22%
7W-15.6H-94%)
Streetsboro 5% (6W-11.9H-2% 7W-16.7H-99%)
Beachwood 2% (7W-12.4H-6% 8W-16.7H-98%)
Tuslaw (Massillon) 1% (6W-12.1H-3%)
Lakeview (Cortland) 1% (6W-11.3H-1%)
Garfield (Garrettsville) 1% (7W-11.6H-1%)
Perry 1% (5W-12.1H-1%)
Grand Valley (Orwell) 1% (7W-11.6H-1%)
Hawken (Gates Mills) 1% (7W-11.1H-1%)


Region 14 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Kenton 100% (8W-21.5H-100% 9W-24.0H-100% 10W-28.9H-100%)
Genoa Area (Genoa) 100% (8W-19.6H-100% 9W-20.5H-100% 10W-25.0H-100%)
Eastwood (Pemberville) 100% (8W-21.4H-100% 9W-23.0H-100% 10W-27.5H-100%)
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 100% (7W-20.5H-100% 8W-23.0H-100%
9W-27.5H-100%)
Huron 95% (7W-14.7H-27% 8W-17.0H-85% 9W-19.6H-100%)
North Union (Richwood) 92% (8W-16.1H-61% 9W-19.3H-100%)
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 81% (6W-15.6H-37% 7W-16.0H-46% 8W-18.9H-100%)
Wellington 70% (5W-12.8H-2% 6W-15.1H-30% 7W-17.0H-75%)
Ontario (Mansfield) 60% (8W-13.8H-1% 9W-17.1H-88%)
Galion 2% (8W-12.9H-1% 9W-17.0H-77%)
Clear Fork (Bellville) 1% (5W-15.4H-5%)


Region 15 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Coshocton 100% (7W-19.7H-100% 8W-20.7H-100% 9W-24.7H-100%)
St Clairsville 100% (9W-22.4H-100% 10W-26.0H-100%)
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 100% (9W-21.6H-100% 10W-22.5H-100%)
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 99% (6W-14.9H-99% 7W-16.5H-100%
8W-21.5H-100%)
Chesapeake 99% (6W-13.5H-84% 7W-14.6H-98% 8W-17.2H-100%)
Ironton 92% (4W-12.3H-45% 5W-13.8H-85% 6W-15.9H-99%)
Martins Ferry 87% (6W-12.1H-38% 7W-14.7H-97% 8W-19.0H-100%)
Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 56% (6W-12.4H-35% 7W-15.2H-99%)
Meigs (Pomeroy) 51% (6W-10.8H-3% 7W-13.8H-72%)
Wellston 11% (5W-9.8H-1% 6W-14.1H-67%)
Tuscarawas Valley (Zoarville) 4% (5W-9.1H-1% 6W-11.9H-14%)
Piketon 1% (6W-12.2H-15%)
Minford 1% (6W-11.7H-3%)
Northwest (Mc Dermott) 1% (5W-10.8H-1%)
Edison (Richmond) 1% (5W-10.9H-1%)


Region 16 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Madeira (Cincinnati) 100% (8W-19.0H-100% 9W-20.3H-100% 10W-23.5H-100%)
Waynesville 100% (8W-19.3H-100% 9W-21.9H-100% 10W-26.0H-100%)
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 99% (6W-16.0H-95% 7W-17.3H-100%
8W-22.3H-100%)
Milton-Union (West Milton) 99% (8W-16.3H-99% 9W-20.8H-100%)
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 96% (6W-14.1H-27% 7W-15.9H-75%
8W-19.5H-100%)
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 95% (6W-15.0H-76% 7W-16.1H-91%
8W-19.2H-100%)
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 73% (6W-12.9H-1% 7W-13.9H-45%
8W-17.0H-100%)
Brookville 57% (6W-12.6H-1% 7W-14.2H-55% 8W-18.3H-100%)
Westfall (Williamsport) 25% (6W-12.8H-1% 7W-13.1H-2% 8W-17.5H-100%)
East Clinton (Lees Creek) 21% (6W-11.8H-1% 7W-13.2H-7% 8W-17.0H-99%)
Finneytown (Cincinnati) 13% (6W-11.4H-1% 7W-14.4H-45%)
Badin (Hamilton) 11% (6W-10.6H-1% 7W-14.4H-37%)
Roger Bacon (St Bernard) 5% (4W-10.5H-1% 5W-15.1H-59%)
Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) 5% (8W-13.8H-12%)


Region 17 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Kirtland 100% (9W-20.6H-100% 10W-22.5H-100%)
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 100% (8W-18.3H-100% 9W-19.0H-100%)
Crestview (Columbiana) 95% (7W-13.4H-40% 8W-14.3H-64% 9W-16.7H-100%)
Memorial (Campbell) 94% (6W-12.8H-26% 7W-14.6H-77% 8W-16.7H-99%)
Columbiana 94% (7W-12.9H-9% 8W-15.4H-91% 9W-18.1H-100%)
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 83% (6W-12.3H-12% 7W-13.8H-46% 8W-16.0H-99%)
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 82% (8W-12.9H-23% 9W-15.6H-97%)
Southern (Salineville) 56% (7W-11.9H-4% 8W-12.6H-23% 9W-14.7H-66%)
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 51% (6W-14.8H-77% 7W-19.2H-100%)
Barnesville 22% (7W-10.5H-1% 8W-12.4H-4% 9W-14.7H-67%)
Springfield (New Middletown) 21% (6W-10.6H-1% 7W-12.1H-5% 8W-15.6H-97%)
Ursuline (Youngstown) 3% (4W-14.0H-32%)
Rootstown 1% (7W-11.1H-1%)
Bellaire 1% (6W-10.5H-1%)


Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Liberty Center 100% (8W-20.3H-100% 9W-21.9H-100% 10W-24.9H-100%)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 100% (9W-20.5H-100% 10W-23.7H-100%)
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 100% (8W-20.2H-100% 9W-21.2H-100%
10W-24.6H-100%)
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 99% (8W-14.4H-79% 9W-16.3H-99% 10W-19.4H-100%)
Northwood 99% (7W-14.5H-70% 8W-15.2H-96% 9W-18.1H-100%)
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 99% (7W-14.9H-93% 8W-17.5H-100%)
Hicksville 64% (7W-12.8H-29% 8W-16.0H-99%)
Carey 63% (7W-12.5H-17% 8W-15.0H-86%)
Spencerville 45% (7W-12.2H-5% 8W-14.2H-58%)
Archbold 22% (7W-12.1H-4% 8W-16.1H-99%)
Seneca East (Attica) 3% (7W-9.6H-1% 8W-12.5H-19%)
Tinora (Defiance) 2% (8W-12.7H-6%)
Columbus Grove 1% (7W-12.7H-4%)
Columbia (Columbia Station) 1% (8W-12.3H-1%)
Jefferson (Delphos) 1% (6W-12.5H-8%)
Bluffton 1% (6W-11.5H-1%)


Region 19 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Wynford (Bucyrus) 100% (9W-20.6H-100% 10W-24.1H-100%)
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 99% (8W-18.1H-99% 9W-21.2H-100%
10W-26.0H-100%)
Valley (Lucasville) 99% (8W-17.3H-95% 9W-20.0H-100% 10W-23.4H-100%)
Crestview (Ashland) 98% (8W-14.4H-13% 9W-16.6H-93% 10W-19.0H-100%)
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 92% (8W-14.1H-8% 9W-16.5H-83%
10W-19.8H-100%)
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 81% (6W-13.3H-1% 7W-15.0H-31% 8W-17.3H-96%)
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 78% (7W-14.0H-2% 8W-15.9H-59%
9W-19.5H-100%)
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 58% (9W-15.4H-34% 10W-19.5H-100%)
Wheelersburg 57% (8W-16.3H-78% 9W-20.3H-100%)
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 20% (6W-14.0H-4% 7W-18.3H-99%)
Smithville 7% (7W-11.8H-1% 8W-16.0H-51%)
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 6% (8W-13.4H-1% 9W-17.3H-99%)
Centerburg 3% (7W-12.2H-1% 8W-14.8H-7%)
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 1% (6W-14.5H-1%)
Alexander (Albany) 1% (8W-14.1H-2%)
Fredericktown 1% (7W-13.2H-1%)


Region 20 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Pleasant (Marion) 100% (9W-19.5H-100% 10W-21.5H-100%)
Coldwater 100% (6W-14.7H-100% 7W-15.1H-100% 8W-17.5H-100%)
Adena (Frankfort) 100% (8W-17.0H-100% 9W-19.6H-100% 10W-23.1H-100%)
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 100% (8W-17.6H-100% 9W-18.4H-100%
10W-21.5H-100%)
Covington 100% (8W-13.9H-100% 9W-15.7H-100% 10W-18.3H-100%)
West Jefferson 99% (7W-11.7H-60% 8W-13.1H-99% 9W-16.4H-100%)
Triad (North Lewisburg) 52% (7W-11.9H-72% 8W-16.0H-100%)
Miami East (Casstown) 48% (6W-10.4H-3% 7W-11.6H-50%)
Versailles 42% (6W-9.1H-1% 7W-10.2H-10% 8W-12.4H-96%)
Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) 41% (6W-9.9H-2% 7W-11.9H-56%)
Fairbanks (Milford Center) 15% (6W-10.4H-2% 7W-11.3H-15%)
Anna 2% (7W-10.8H-4%)
Williamsburg 1% (6W-10.9H-4%)
Dayton Christian (Miamisburg) 1% (9W-9.4H-1%)
Clark Montessori (Cincinnati) 1% (6W-9.8H-1%)


Region 21 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 100% (8W-15.0H-100% 9W-16.8H-100%
10W-18.6H-100%)
Malvern 99% (7W-11.4H-100% 8W-12.5H-99% 9W-14.1H-100%)
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 99% (7W-13.3H-99% 8W-15.8H-100%
9W-17.6H-100%)
Ledgemont (Thompson) 99% (8W-12.0H-100% 9W-13.1H-99% 10W-16.0H-100%)
Shadyside 99% (5W-11.8H-99% 6W-13.6H-100% 7W-17.2H-100%)
Mogadore 99% (6W-12.2H-99% 7W-12.9H-99% 8W-17.3H-100%)
John F Kennedy (Warren) 77% (5W-9.1H-31% 6W-10.1H-74% 7W-13.7H-99%)
Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) 47% (5W-8.3H-11% 6W-9.2H-28%
7W-12.3H-98%)
Strasburg-Franklin (Strasburg) 36% (5W-8.3H-1% 6W-11.6H-87%
7W-14.8H-100%)
Wellsville 15% (4W-8.1H-1% 5W-9.6H-36%)
Toronto 9% (6W-7.3H-2% 7W-9.4H-20%)
Mineral Ridge 8% (5W-7.7H-4% 6W-11.3H-72%)
Mc Kinley (Sebring) 6% (5W-7.3H-1% 6W-10.6H-58%)
Mc Donald 2% (5W-7.6H-1% 6W-10.9H-69%)
Catholic Central (Steubenville) 1% (4W-7.8H-1% 5W-10.6H-50%)
Bridgeport 1% (5W-9.0H-6%)
Fairport Harding (Fairport Harbor) 1% (5W-6.2H-1% 6W-10.7H-64%)
Jackson-Milton (North Jackson) 1% (5W-9.3H-20%)


Region 22 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Calvert (Tiffin) 100% (7W-14.3H-100% 8W-15.1H-100% 9W-19.0H-100%)
Edgerton 99% (7W-11.6H-99% 8W-14.6H-100% 9W-17.5H-100%)
St John’S (Delphos) 99% (5W-11.3H-99% 6W-11.6H-99% 7W-15.1H-100%)
Leipsic 99% (7W-11.5H-99% 8W-14.4H-100% 9W-18.0H-100%)
Mc Comb 99% (6W-10.4H-98% 7W-11.5H-99% 8W-14.4H-100%)
Edon 88% (5W-8.0H-3% 6W-9.1H-58% 7W-11.3H-99%)
Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 81% (6W-8.8H-29% 7W-9.8H-87% 8W-13.3H-100%)
Crestview (Convoy) 58% (4W-8.4H-5% 5W-8.8H-21% 6W-11.5H-99%)
Arcadia 55% (6W-8.6H-13% 7W-9.6H-60%)
St Paul (Norwalk) 17% (6W-8.6H-6% 7W-12.4H-100%)
St Mary Central Catholic (Sandusky) 1% (4W-6.6H-1% 5W-9.1H-21%)
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 1% (5W-8.1H-1%)
Mohawk (Sycamore) 1% (5W-8.0H-1%)
Arlington 1% (6W-7.5H-1%)


Region 23 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Buckeye Central (New Washington) 99% (6W-10.0H-46% 7W-11.9H-98%
8W-13.8H-100%)
Danville 99% (5W-10.7H-86% 6W-12.0H-98% 7W-13.3H-99%)
Trimble (Glouster) 99% (5W-9.4H-6% 6W-10.7H-82% 7W-12.4H-99%)
Beallsville 97% (6W-10.8H-75% 7W-11.2H-91% 8W-12.6H-99%)
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 97% (5W-9.7H-24% 6W-11.5H-89%
7W-13.1H-99%)
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 93% (7W-9.9H-20% 8W-12.8H-99% 9W-15.8H-100%)
Notre Dame (Portsmouth) 84% (7W-9.3H-3% 8W-12.0H-99% 9W-15.5H-100%)
South Gallia (Crown City) 70% (7W-11.0H-85% 8W-14.4H-100%)
Sciotoville Community (Portsmouth) 26% (6W-9.4H-9% 7W-12.3H-99%)
Newark Catholic (Newark) 13% (4W-8.4H-1% 5W-9.2H-4% 6W-13.5H-100%)
Fairfield Christian Academy (Lancaster) 9% (7W-8.1H-1% 8W-11.3H-68%)
Waterford 8% (6W-7.1H-1% 7W-9.9H-28%)
Caldwell 4% (6W-10.1H-21%)
River (Hannibal) 2% (5W-8.9H-1% 6W-9.6H-3%)
Plymouth 2% (6W-8.9H-4% 7W-12.8H-99%)
Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) 1% (6W-9.1H-1%)


Region 24 Playoff Berth Probabilities

Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 100% (6W-11.3H-100% 7W-12.0H-100%
8W-14.6H-100%)
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 100% (7W-15.2H-100% 8W-16.6H-100%
9W-19.2H-100%)
Ada 100% (7W-12.1H-100% 8W-14.3H-100% 9W-18.3H-100%)
Fort Loramie 100% (8W-13.8H-100% 9W-15.2H-100%)
Catholic Central (Springfield) 100% (6W-11.9H-100% 7W-13.1H-100%
8W-14.8H-100%)
Lockland 78% (6W-7.9H-3% 7W-10.3H-80% 8W-12.6H-100%)
Minster 62% (5W-8.2H-12% 6W-9.6H-57% 7W-12.7H-100%)
Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) 48% (6W-7.8H-5% 7W-11.1H-99%)
Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 43% (6W-8.6H-13% 7W-9.9H-69%)
Ansonia 35% (6W-8.6H-11% 7W-11.6H-99% 8W-15.3H-100%)
Southeastern Local (South Charleston) 32% (5W-7.7H-2% 6W-10.4H-87%)
Arcanum 1% (5W-7.6H-1% 6W-11.0H-99%)
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 1% (5W-8.3H-4%)
New Miami (Hamilton) 1% (4W-8.6H-12%)

Playoff Seed Odds

Listed after each team is their projected Harbin point total, based on the median result of 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time. After week #8 last season, my predictions of playoff teams were about 90% accurate. Out of the teams listed below, you can expect that 90% or so will qualify for the postseason.  Roughly 75% of the teams ended up seeded within 1 line above or below where I had them seeded at this point, and about 45% of my week 8 seeds turned out to be exactly correct. In all of the above, the predictions were significantly better than the official standings at the same point.

Region 1 Projections
1) Mentor 35.70
2) Cleveland Heights 26.69
3) Solon 26.65
4) South (Willoughby) 26.55
5) St Ignatius (Cleveland) 26.47
6) St Edward (Lakewood) 23.74
7) Boardman (Youngstown) 21.42
8) John F Kennedy (Cleveland) 19.07

Region 2 Projections
1) Whitmer (Toledo) 31.35
2) Glenoak (Canton) 30.00
3) Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 29.00
4) Hudson 27.65
5) Massillon Washington (Massillon) 24.82
6) Wadsworth 24.70
7) North Ridgeville 23.00
8) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 22.89

Region 3 Projections
1) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 30.94
2) Westerville Central (Westerville) 29.00
3) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 26.22
4) Troy 24.95
5) Upper Arlington (Columbus) 24.90
6) Lincoln (Gahanna) 22.61
7) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 22.43
8) Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) 21.00

Region 4 Projections
1) Middletown 34.20
2) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 31.42
3) Colerain (Cincinnati) 30.61
4) St Xavier (Cincinnati) 30.11
5) Sycamore (Cincinnati) 23.70
6) Mason 22.95
7) La Salle (Cincinnati) 22.23
8) Walnut Hills (Cincinnati) 20.95

Region 5 Projections
1) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 26.69
2) Tallmadge 23.90
3) Canfield 23.85
4) Aurora 22.35
5) Howland (Warren) 21.80
6) West Geauga (Chesterland) 21.60
7) Madison 21.38
8) New Philadelphia 20.16

Region 6 Projections
1) Avon 29.50
2) Maple Heights 24.43
3) Central Catholic (Toledo) 22.55
4) Olmsted Falls 21.30
5) Sandusky 20.95
6) Highland (Medina) 20.65
7) Columbian (Tiffin) 19.95
8) Maumee 18.30

Region 7 Projections
1) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 28.65
2) Tri-Valley (Dresden) 25.45
3) New Albany 24.70
4) Big Walnut (Sunbury) 23.40
5) Beechcroft (Columbus) 20.61
6) Ashland 17.70
7) Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 17.30
8) Zanesville 15.77

Region 8 Projections
1) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 34.40
2) Kings (Kings Mills) 33.30
3) Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 24.50
4) Franklin 22.95
5) Wapakoneta 22.55
6) Turpin (Cincinnati) 19.10
7) Ross (Hamilton) 17.30
8) Butler (Vandalia) 17.10

Region 9 Projections
1) Chagrin Falls 28.70
2) Lake Catholic (Mentor) 27.82
3) Ravenna 26.70
4) University School (Hunting Valley) 25.45
5) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 22.34
6) Southeast (Ravenna) 21.05
7) Benedictine (Cleveland) 20.39
8) Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) 17.00

Region 10 Projections
1) Clyde 21.25
2) Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 19.20
3) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 18.50
4) Elida 18.15
5) Bellevue 17.70
6) Urbana 14.85
7) Napoleon 13.50
8) Independence (Columbus) 13.20

Region 11 Projections
1) Dover 28.70
2) Steubenville 28.00
3) Minerva 27.55
4) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 26.30
5) Sheridan (Thornville) 21.55
6) Northwest (Canal Fulton) 21.17
7) Indian Creek (Wintersville) 19.68
8) Granville 19.55

Region 12 Projections
1) Shawnee (Springfield) 28.55
2) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 28.15
3) Logan Elm (Circleville) 26.15
4) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 25.43
5) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 24.35
6) Athens (The Plains) 22.99
7) Jackson 21.41
8) Taft (Cincinnati) 17.32

Region 13 Projections
1) Norwayne (Creston) 24.15
2) Girard 21.90
3) Black River (Sullivan) 20.30
4) Orrville 19.80
5) Brookfield 16.45
6) Manchester (Akron) 16.10
7) Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 15.22
8) Labrae (Leavittsburg) 14.55

Region 14 Projections
1) Kenton 28.55
2) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 27.09
3) Genoa Area (Genoa) 24.50
4) Eastwood (Pemberville) 23.15
5) Huron 19.25
6) North Union (Richwood) 19.25
7) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 18.45
8) Ontario (Mansfield) 17.05

Region 15 Projections
1) St Clairsville 25.67
2) Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 22.48
3) Coshocton 20.79
4) Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 16.83
5) Chesapeake 16.36
6) Ironton 15.07
7) Martins Ferry 14.70
8) Meigs (Pomeroy) 13.40

Region 16 Projections
1) Waynesville 25.95
2) Madeira (Cincinnati) 23.45
3) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 19.20
4) Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 17.34
5) North College Hill (Cincinnati) 16.95
6) Milton-Union (West Milton) 16.30
7) Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 16.13
8) Brookville 14.30

Region 17 Projections
1) Kirtland 22.53
2) Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 19.01
3) Columbiana 17.75
4) Memorial (Campbell) 16.60
5) Crestview (Columbiana) 16.25
6) Garaway (Sugarcreek) 15.70
7) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 15.45
8) St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 14.38

Region 18 Projections
1) Liberty Center 24.85
2) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 24.26
3) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 23.70
4) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 19.05
5) Northwood 18.05
6) Patrick Henry (Hamler) 17.45
7) Hicksville 15.60
8) Carey 14.99

Region 19 Projections
1) Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 25.47
2) Wynford (Bucyrus) 24.10
3) Valley (Lucasville) 22.99
4) Grandview Heights (Columbus) 19.35
5) Crestview (Ashland) 18.75
6) Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 17.05
7) Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 17.00
8) Wheelersburg 16.00

Region 20 Projections
1) Adena (Frankfort) 23.05
2) Pleasant (Marion) 21.50
3) West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 21.45
4) Covington 18.30
5) Coldwater 17.25
6) West Jefferson 16.15
7) Triad (North Lewisburg) 11.65
8) Miami East (Casstown) 11.60

Region 21 Projections
1) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 18.60
2) Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 16.85
3) Shadyside 16.71
4) Ledgemont (Thompson) 15.97
5) Malvern 14.00
6) Mogadore 13.00
7) John F Kennedy (Warren) 10.57
8) Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) 9.57

Region 22 Projections
1) Calvert (Tiffin) 15.12
2) St John’S (Delphos) 14.75
3) Edgerton 14.55
4) Leipsic 14.35
5) Mc Comb 11.50
6) Edon 11.29
7) Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 9.82
8) Crestview (Convoy) 9.60

Region 23 Projections
1) Buckeye Central (New Washington) 13.80
2) Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 13.71
3) Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 13.00
4) Danville 12.90
5) Beallsville 12.59
6) Trimble (Glouster) 12.38
7) Notre Dame (Portsmouth) 12.08
8) South Gallia (Crown City) 10.97

Region 24 Projections
1) Marion Local (Maria Stein) 17.22
2) Fort Loramie 15.17
3) Catholic Central (Springfield) 14.80
4) Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 14.60
5) Ada 14.00
6) Lockland 10.65
7) Minster 9.65
8) Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 9.60

Home Game Odds

Lhese numbers are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  For those interested in more details about the methodology and results, they were recently published here.  If you can’t access that site, but would like a copy of the paper, just send me an e-mail.

In parenthesis are conditional Harbin point values and conditional home game probabilities, based on how many games a team wins.  For example, 8W-24.6H-74% would mean that if that team wins exactly 8 games, they would have an estimated 24.6 Harbin points and a 74% chance of a hosting a first-round game.

After week #8 last season, my predictions of host teams were about 85% accurate.  Out of the teams listed in the top four within their region here, you can expect that 80-90% will end up having a home game in week 11.

Region 1 Home Game Probabilities
Mentor 100% (9W-31.5H-100% 10W-35.7H-100%)
Solon 75% (8W-22.0H-9% 9W-26.6H-83%)
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 69% (7W-25.3H-46% 8W-29.7H-99% 9W-34.2H-100%)
South (Willoughby) 62% (7W-22.5H-10% 8W-26.5H-82%)
Cleveland Heights 55% (7W-21.3H-1% 8W-23.3H-15% 9W-28.6H-99%)
St Edward (Lakewood) 27% (7W-23.7H-11% 8W-29.0H-99%)
Boardman (Youngstown) 13% (7W-21.4H-1% 8W-25.7H-40%)

Region 2 Home Game Probabilities
Glenoak (Canton) 99% (7W-26.4H-60% 8W-28.3H-93% 9W-30.0H-99%)
Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 98% (7W-25.2H-29% 8W-26.9H-72% 9W-29.0H-99%)
Whitmer (Toledo) 92% (8W-25.4H-27% 9W-26.6H-56% 10W-31.3H-100%)
Hudson 48% (8W-24.1H-6% 9W-28.3H-84%)
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 26% (8W-24.9H-8% 9W-29.7H-97%)
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 19% (7W-22.8H-1% 8W-27.6H-55%)
Findlay 12% (8W-22.3H-1% 9W-26.1H-26%)
Wadsworth 5% (8W-20.9H-1% 9W-25.3H-9%)
Brunswick 1% (7W-20.0H-1% 8W-25.1H-6%)
North Ridgeville 1% (9W-23.5H-1%)
Avon Lake 1% (7W-18.9H-1% 8W-23.5H-1%)
Anthony Wayne (Whitehouse) 1% (8W-22.8H-1%)
Elyria 1% (9W-22.3H-1%)
Jackson (Massillon) 1% (7W-22.1H-1%)
Twinsburg 1% (7W-22.3H-1%)

Region 3 Home Game Probabilities
Westerville Central (Westerville) 96% (7W-23.0H-5% 8W-26.0H-94% 9W-29.0H-100%)
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 93% (8W-25.7H-84% 9W-31.0H-100%)
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 86% (6W-21.6H-1% 7W-26.2H-99%)
Upper Arlington (Columbus) 46% (8W-25.0H-59% 9W-30.3H-100%)
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 41% (8W-21.8H-1% 9W-26.7H-99%)
Troy 38% (7W-23.2H-9% 8W-25.0H-38%)
Lincoln (Gahanna) 1% (8W-23.1H-1%)
Reynoldsburg 1% (8W-22.5H-3%)
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 1% (8W-20.6H-1%)

Region 4 Home Game Probabilities
Colerain (Cincinnati) 98% (7W-25.1H-43% 8W-28.1H-77% 9W-30.7H-99%)
Middletown 95% (7W-25.9H-16% 8W-30.0H-96% 9W-34.8H-100%)
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 93% (7W-26.3H-61% 8W-30.8H-99% 9W-36.9H-100%)
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 92% (6W-24.3H-33% 7W-28.9H-95% 8W-33.1H-100%)
Sycamore (Cincinnati) 12% (8W-23.1H-2% 9W-27.3H-31%)
Mason 9% (7W-23.0H-1% 8W-28.4H-56%)
Princeton (Cincinnati) 1% (7W-20.0H-1% 8W-24.8H-3%)
La Salle (Cincinnati) 1% (7W-21.6H-1% 8W-23.5H-1%)

Region 5 Home Game Probabilities
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 98% (6W-21.8H-52% 7W-23.6H-94% 8W-27.2H-100%)
Canfield 62% (7W-20.9H-10% 8W-24.4H-99%)
Aurora 60% (8W-19.3H-1% 9W-22.4H-66%)
Tallmadge 58% (7W-20.5H-1% 8W-24.0H-99%)
Howland (Warren) 37% (8W-21.2H-17% 9W-21.8H-37%)
West Geauga (Chesterland) 26% (7W-19.0H-1% 8W-22.0H-38%)
New Philadelphia 23% (7W-19.9H-2% 8W-24.6H-99%)
Madison 20% (7W-19.5H-1% 8W-21.8H-23%)
Roosevelt (Kent) 14% (8W-17.8H-1% 9W-22.5H-71%)
Copley 1% (6W-16.1H-1% 7W-20.6H-3%)
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 1% (7W-20.5H-5%)

Region 6 Home Game Probabilities
Avon 99% (8W-25.3H-97% 9W-29.5H-100% 10W-34.0H-100%)
Maple Heights 80% (7W-19.6H-4% 8W-23.3H-76% 9W-29.0H-100%)
Central Catholic (Toledo) 59% (6W-20.4H-9% 7W-22.5H-54% 8W-28.2H-100%)
Olmsted Falls 39% (7W-20.8H-9% 8W-24.9H-95%)
Highland (Medina) 37% (7W-20.0H-4% 8W-25.2H-97%)
Sandusky 36% (8W-20.6H-10% 9W-25.0H-94%)
Columbian (Tiffin) 30% (8W-19.5H-1% 9W-24.1H-86%)
Maumee 10% (7W-17.9H-1% 8W-22.3H-29%)
Fremont Ross (Fremont) 7% (6W-17.3H-1% 7W-22.4H-22%)
Midview (Grafton) 4% (9W-23.2H-51%)
Perrysburg 1% (7W-20.6H-3%)
Shaw (East Cleveland) 1% (6W-18.2H-1%)

Region 7 Home Game Probabilities
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 99% (9W-24.6H-99% 10W-29.3H-100%)
New Albany 98% (6W-20.7H-52% 7W-22.5H-81% 8W-24.7H-99%)
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 89% (7W-21.8H-70% 8W-23.4H-90%)
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 77% (7W-18.4H-1% 8W-21.2H-51% 9W-26.0H-100%)
Beechcroft (Columbus) 35% (8W-19.4H-2% 9W-23.2H-73%)
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 1% (6W-16.3H-1% 7W-20.1H-3%)
Brookhaven (Columbus) 1% (8W-19.8H-1%)
Mifflin (Columbus) 1% (9W-18.0H-1%)
Ashland 1% (6W-18.2H-1%)

Region 8 Home Game Probabilities
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 100% (9W-30.5H-100% 10W-34.4H-100%)
Kings (Kings Mills) 99% (8W-24.9H-90% 9W-29.2H-100% 10W-33.3H-100%)
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 81% (8W-20.1H-18% 9W-24.5H-97% 10W-29.4H-100%)
Wapakoneta 65% (8W-19.4H-7% 9W-22.1H-53% 10W-26.9H-100%)
Franklin 43% (7W-19.4H-3% 8W-19.9H-15% 9W-23.4H-65%)
Turpin (Cincinnati) 5% (7W-19.0H-1% 8W-24.8H-83%)
Ross (Hamilton) 3% (8W-16.9H-1% 9W-21.0H-9%)
Butler (Vandalia) 2% (7W-18.9H-1% 8W-24.5H-76%)
Anderson (Cincinnati) 1% (6W-20.3H-5%)
Wilmington 1% (8W-18.5H-1%)

Region 9 Home Game Probabilities
Chagrin Falls 100% (9W-26.3H-100% 10W-28.7H-100%)
University School (Hunting Valley) 94% (7W-21.0H-10% 8W-23.0H-68% 9W-25.9H-99%)
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 88% (7W-21.4H-13% 8W-22.9H-64% 9W-28.3H-100%)
Ravenna 87% (8W-22.4H-45% 9W-27.1H-100%)
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 22% (7W-18.4H-1% 8W-21.7H-9% 9W-23.8H-44%)
Benedictine (Cleveland) 8% (7W-20.4H-1% 8W-23.6H-36%)
Southeast (Ravenna) 1% (9W-18.2H-1% 10W-21.4H-1%)
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 1% (7W-20.7H-1%)

Region 10 Home Game Probabilities
Clyde 99% (6W-16.5H-37% 7W-19.0H-97% 8W-21.3H-100%)
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 96% (7W-17.3H-62% 8W-18.6H-94% 9W-23.9H-100%)
Bellevue 70% (6W-16.2H-35% 7W-17.1H-47% 8W-21.9H-100%)
Elida 66% (5W-14.6H-3% 6W-16.1H-31% 7W-18.1H-74%)
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 66% (5W-19.0H-92% 6W-23.6H-100%)
Port Clinton 1% (6W-14.9H-1% 7W-18.6H-87%)
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 1% (5W-16.4H-6%)
Urbana 1% (8W-15.0H-1%)
Independence (Columbus) 1% (7W-15.6H-2%)
Shawnee (Lima) 1% (6W-14.9H-1%)
Defiance 1% (6W-15.4H-2%)

Region 11 Home Game Probabilities
Minerva 96% (8W-23.0H-64% 9W-25.0H-79% 10W-27.9H-99%)
Steubenville 96% (8W-25.7H-86% 9W-26.5H-94% 10W-31.2H-100%)
Dover 93% (7W-23.4H-58% 8W-24.9H-71% 9W-29.1H-100%)
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 89% (5W-22.3H-45% 6W-24.5H-72% 7W-26.5H-96%)
Sheridan (Thornville) 25% (9W-21.4H-1% 10W-25.8H-66%)
Poland Seminary (Poland) 1% (7W-22.0H-1%)
Northwest (Canal Fulton) 1% (8W-21.3H-1%)
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 1% (8W-20.2H-1%)

Region 12 Home Game Probabilities
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 99% (8W-23.8H-51% 9W-26.0H-94% 10W-28.5H-99%)
Shawnee (Springfield) 82% (8W-23.4H-35% 9W-24.0H-54% 10W-29.0H-100%)
Logan Elm (Circleville) 77% (8W-21.1H-2% 9W-22.7H-23% 10W-26.5H-98%)
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 68% (8W-21.9H-12% 9W-25.5H-82%)
Athens (The Plains) 42% (8W-19.8H-1% 9W-22.5H-15% 10W-26.8H-99%)
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 31% (9W-21.2H-2% 10W-24.9H-54%)
Jackson 1% (10W-21.5H-1%)
Kenton Ridge (Springfield) 1% (9W-20.9H-1%)

Region 13 Home Game Probabilities
Norwayne (Creston) 99% (8W-17.5H-76% 9W-20.8H-100% 10W-24.7H-100%)
Girard 98% (7W-18.8H-93% 8W-19.3H-93% 9W-22.2H-100%)
Orrville 91% (5W-16.1H-27% 6W-18.4H-93% 7W-20.9H-100%)
Black River (Sullivan) 65% (7W-16.1H-11% 8W-16.5H-25% 9W-21.1H-100%)
Labrae (Leavittsburg) 14% (6W-14.5H-1% 7W-18.6H-70%)
Brookfield 14% (8W-15.4H-2% 9W-16.5H-16%)
Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 13% (8W-14.1H-1% 9W-17.0H-28%)
Manchester (Akron) 5% (6W-12.9H-1% 7W-16.6H-10%)
Streetsboro 1% (7W-16.7H-18%)
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 1% (6W-12.7H-1% 7W-15.6H-1%)
Beachwood 1% (8W-16.7H-14%)

Region 14 Home Game Probabilities
Kenton 100% (8W-21.5H-100% 9W-24.0H-100% 10W-28.9H-100%)
Eastwood (Pemberville) 100% (8W-21.4H-100% 9W-23.0H-100% 10W-27.5H-100%)
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 99% (7W-20.5H-88% 8W-23.0H-100% 9W-27.5H-100%)
Genoa Area (Genoa) 99% (8W-19.6H-60% 9W-20.5H-98% 10W-25.0H-100%)
Huron 1% (9W-19.6H-1%)
North Union (Richwood) 1% (9W-19.3H-1%)
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 1% (8W-18.9H-1%)

Region 15 Home Game Probabilities
St Clairsville 100% (9W-22.4H-100% 10W-26.0H-100%)
Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) 100% (9W-21.6H-100% 10W-22.5H-100%)
Coshocton 99% (7W-19.7H-99% 8W-20.7H-99% 9W-24.7H-100%)
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 55% (6W-14.9H-10% 7W-16.5H-41% 8W-21.5H-99%)
Chesapeake 26% (7W-14.6H-1% 8W-17.2H-49%)
Martins Ferry 15% (7W-14.7H-2% 8W-19.0H-73%)
Ironton 5% (5W-13.8H-1% 6W-15.9H-8%)
Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) 1% (7W-15.2H-1%)
Wellston 1% (6W-14.1H-1%)

Region 16 Home Game Probabilities
Madeira (Cincinnati) 99% (8W-19.0H-88% 9W-20.3H-99% 10W-23.5H-100%)
Waynesville 99% (8W-19.3H-85% 9W-21.9H-100% 10W-26.0H-100%)
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 70% (7W-15.9H-2% 8W-19.5H-84%)
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 54% (7W-17.3H-27% 8W-22.3H-100%)
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 33% (7W-16.1H-1% 8W-19.2H-68%)
Milton-Union (West Milton) 22% (8W-16.3H-1% 9W-20.8H-99%)
Brookville 10% (7W-14.2H-1% 8W-18.3H-35%)
Westfall (Williamsport) 5% (7W-13.1H-1% 8W-17.5H-21%)
East Clinton (Lees Creek) 3% (7W-13.2H-1% 8W-17.0H-22%)
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 3% (8W-17.0H-6%)

Region 17 Home Game Probabilities
Kirtland 100% (9W-20.6H-100% 10W-22.5H-100%)
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 100% (8W-18.3H-100% 9W-19.0H-100%)
Columbiana 67% (8W-15.4H-10% 9W-18.1H-99%)
Memorial (Campbell) 52% (7W-14.6H-3% 8W-16.7H-67%)
Crestview (Columbiana) 49% (8W-14.3H-1% 9W-16.7H-57%)
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 11% (7W-13.8H-1% 8W-16.0H-16%)
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 11% (6W-14.8H-1% 7W-19.2H-100%)
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 7% (9W-15.6H-9%)
Springfield (New Middletown) 2% (7W-12.1H-1% 8W-15.6H-8%)
Barnesville 1% (9W-14.7H-1%)
Southern (Salineville) 1% (9W-14.7H-1%)

Region 18 Home Game Probabilities
Liberty Center 100% (8W-20.3H-100% 9W-21.9H-100% 10W-24.9H-100%)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 100% (9W-20.5H-100% 10W-23.7H-100%)
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 100% (8W-20.2H-100% 9W-21.2H-100% 10W-24.6H-100%)
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 62% (9W-16.3H-1% 10W-19.4H-100%)
Northwood 26% (8W-15.2H-1% 9W-18.1H-31%)
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 11% (8W-17.5H-12%)
Archbold 1% (8W-16.1H-1%)
Hicksville 1% (8W-16.0H-1%)
Carey 1% (8W-15.0H-1%)
Spencerville 1% (8W-14.2H-1%)

Region 19 Home Game Probabilities
Wynford (Bucyrus) 99% (9W-20.6H-99% 10W-24.1H-100%)
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 99% (8W-18.1H-14% 9W-21.2H-99% 10W-26.0H-100%)
Valley (Lucasville) 87% (8W-17.3H-1% 9W-20.0H-73% 10W-23.4H-100%)
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 46% (9W-16.5H-1% 10W-19.8H-67%)
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 22% (8W-15.9H-1% 9W-19.5H-45%)
Wheelersburg 18% (8W-16.3H-1% 9W-20.3H-99%)
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 15% (10W-19.5H-42%)
Crestview (Ashland) 12% (9W-16.6H-1% 10W-19.0H-15%)
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 1% (7W-15.0H-1% 8W-17.3H-1%)
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 1% (7W-18.3H-2%)
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 1% (9W-17.3H-2%)
Smithville 1% (8W-16.0H-1%)

Region 20 Home Game Probabilities
Pleasant (Marion) 100% (9W-19.5H-100% 10W-21.5H-100%)
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 99% (8W-17.6H-71% 9W-18.4H-98% 10W-21.5H-100%)
Adena (Frankfort) 99% (8W-17.0H-45% 9W-19.6H-100% 10W-23.1H-100%)
Covington 94% (9W-15.7H-7% 10W-18.3H-100%)
Coldwater 6% (7W-15.1H-1% 8W-17.5H-8%)
West Jefferson 1% (8W-13.1H-1% 9W-16.4H-1%)
Triad (North Lewisburg) 1% (8W-16.0H-1%)

Region 21 Home Game Probabilities
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 99% (8W-15.0H-85% 9W-16.8H-99% 10W-18.6H-100%)
Youngstown Christian (Youngstown) 90% (7W-13.3H-19% 8W-15.8H-90% 9W-17.6H-99%)
Ledgemont (Thompson) 82% (9W-13.1H-14% 10W-16.0H-91%)
Shadyside 66% (5W-11.8H-1% 6W-13.6H-26% 7W-17.2H-99%)
Malvern 30% (8W-12.5H-2% 9W-14.1H-33%)
Mogadore 25% (6W-12.2H-1% 7W-12.9H-2% 8W-17.3H-99%)
John F Kennedy (Warren) 5% (6W-10.1H-1% 7W-13.7H-14%)
Strasburg-Franklin (Strasburg) 1% (7W-14.8H-28%)
Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) 1% (7W-12.3H-1%)

Region 22 Home Game Probabilities
Calvert (Tiffin) 99% (7W-14.3H-94% 8W-15.1H-99% 9W-19.0H-100%)
Edgerton 84% (7W-11.6H-44% 8W-14.6H-95% 9W-17.5H-100%)
St John’S (Delphos) 77% (5W-11.3H-6% 6W-11.6H-49% 7W-15.1H-99%)
Leipsic 72% (7W-11.5H-7% 8W-14.4H-99% 9W-18.0H-100%)
Mc Comb 48% (7W-11.5H-8% 8W-14.4H-91%)
Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 7% (7W-9.8H-1% 8W-13.3H-50%)
St Paul (Norwalk) 6% (6W-8.6H-1% 7W-12.4H-43%)
Crestview (Convoy) 4% (5W-8.8H-1% 6W-11.5H-8%)
Edon 4% (7W-11.3H-5%)

Region 23 Home Game Probabilities
Buckeye Central (New Washington) 83% (7W-11.9H-8% 8W-13.8H-99%)
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 72% (8W-12.8H-55% 9W-15.8H-100%)
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 65% (6W-11.5H-14% 7W-13.1H-81%)
Danville 56% (5W-10.7H-1% 6W-12.0H-12% 7W-13.3H-81%)
Notre Dame (Portsmouth) 34% (8W-12.0H-16% 9W-15.5H-100%)
Beallsville 32% (7W-11.2H-1% 8W-12.6H-49%)
Trimble (Glouster) 24% (6W-10.7H-1% 7W-12.4H-25%)
South Gallia (Crown City) 20% (7W-11.0H-1% 8W-14.4H-99%)
Newark Catholic (Newark) 9% (5W-9.2H-1% 6W-13.5H-96%)
Sciotoville Community (Portsmouth) 6% (6W-9.4H-1% 7W-12.3H-29%)
Plymouth 1% (7W-12.8H-31%)
Fairfield Christian Academy (Lancaster) 1% (8W-11.3H-1%)

Region 24 Home Game Probabilities
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 99% (7W-15.2H-93% 8W-16.6H-100% 9W-19.2H-100%)
Fort Loramie 97% (8W-13.8H-53% 9W-15.2H-99%)
Catholic Central (Springfield) 86% (6W-11.9H-20% 7W-13.1H-34% 8W-14.8H-89%)
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 68% (7W-12.0H-4% 8W-14.6H-87%)
Ada 45% (7W-12.1H-8% 8W-14.3H-51% 9W-18.3H-100%)
Lockland 2% (7W-10.3H-1% 8W-12.6H-4%)
Ansonia 1% (7W-11.6H-1% 8W-15.3H-99%)


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