The Fantastic 50: No. 1 St. Xavier beats Colerain and drops? Yep…

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Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

Based on Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 formula, what team – regardless of division – is No. 1 in Ohio? It’s not St. Xavier anymore, even though the Bombers beat Colerain…Hmm. So is it Mentor? Middletown? Moeller? St. Edward? Click here to see who the computers like.


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

This Week’s Fantastic 50: Week 4

Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 
1) St Edward (Lakewood) (3-0, D1 R1) 157.3
2) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (3-0, D1 R4) 156.3
3) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (3-0, D1 R4) 156.3
4) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-1, D1 R4) 153.3
5) Mentor (3-0, D1 R1) 151.5
6) Solon (3-0, D1 R1) 147.4
7) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (3-0, D1 R1) 147.0
8) Middletown (3-0, D1 R4) 146.4
9) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (1-2, D1 R1) 146.4
10) Colerain (Cincinnati) (2-1, D1 R4) 146.0
11) La Salle (Cincinnati) (3-0, D1 R4) 145.3
12) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (2-0, D1 R3) 144.5
13) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (3-0, D2 R8) 143.1
14) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (2-1, D1 R2) 142.6
15) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (2-1, D3 R11) 142.0
16) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (3-0, D3 R9) 140.9
17) Kings (Kings Mills) (3-0, D2 R8) 140.1
18) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (3-0, D1 R3) 139.5
19) Marlington (Alliance) (3-0, D3 R11) 138.8
20) Maple Heights (3-0, D2 R6) 138.6
21) Aurora (3-0, D2 R5) 138.6
22) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (3-0, D5 R18) 138.4
23) Centerville (1-2, D1 R4) 137.9
24) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (3-0, D1 R3) 137.4
25) Hamilton (2-1, D1 R4) 137.3
26) Upper Arlington (Columbus) (2-1, D1 R3) 137.2
27) Wayne (Huber Heights) (1-2, D1 R4) 137.1
28) Westerville Central (Westerville) (3-0, D1 R3) 136.2
29) Sycamore (Cincinnati) (3-0, D1 R4) 136.1
30) Kenton (3-0, D4 R14) 135.8
31) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (0-2, D1 R3) 135.6
32) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (3-0, D3 R12) 135.3
33) St John’s Jesuit (Toledo) (3-0, D1 R2) 135.2
34) Central Catholic (Toledo) (2-1, D2 R6) 135.2
35) Whitmer (Toledo) (3-0, D1 R2) 135.1
36) Waynesville (3-0, D4 R16) 135.1
37) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (2-1, D1 R2) 135.0
38) Fremont Ross (Fremont) (3-0, D2 R6) 135.0
39) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (2-1, D1 R1) 134.7
40) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (3-0, D3 R12) 134.7
41) Jackson (Massillon) (3-0, D1 R2) 134.6
42) Chagrin Falls (3-0, D3 R9) 134.1
43) Lincoln (Gahanna) (2-1, D1 R3) 133.9
44) Glenoak (Canton) (3-0, D1 R2) 133.8
45) Tri-Valley (Dresden) (3-0, D2 R7) 133.8
46) Ursuline (Youngstown) (0-3, D5 R17) 133.4
47) Ravenna (2-1, D3 R9) 133.4
48) Princeton (Cincinnati) (3-0, D1 R4) 133.2
49) Howland (Warren) (3-0, D2 R5) 133.0
50) Canfield (3-0, D2 R5) 132.7

Division I Rankings
1) St Edward (Lakewood) (3-0) 157.3
2) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (3-0) 156.3
3) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (3-0) 156.3
4) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-1) 153.3
5) Mentor (3-0) 151.5
6) Solon (3-0) 147.4
7) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (3-0) 147.0
8) Middletown (3-0) 146.4
9) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (1-2) 146.4
10) Colerain (Cincinnati) (2-1) 146.0
11) La Salle (Cincinnati) (3-0) 145.3
12) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (2-0) 144.5
13) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (2-1) 142.6
14) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (3-0) 139.5
15) Centerville (1-2) 137.9

Division II Rankings
1) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (3-0) 143.1
2) Kings (Kings Mills) (3-0) 140.1
3) Maple Heights (3-0) 138.6
4) Aurora (3-0) 138.6
5) Central Catholic (Toledo) (2-1) 135.2
6) Fremont Ross (Fremont) (3-0) 135.0
7) Tri-Valley (Dresden) (3-0) 133.8
8) Howland (Warren) (3-0) 133.0
9) Canfield (3-0) 132.7
10) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (1-2) 132.6
11) West Geauga (Chesterland) (3-0) 131.7
12) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (2-1) 130.5
13) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (3-0) 129.2
14) New Albany (2-1) 129.1
15) Avon (3-0) 128.6

Division III Rankings
1) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (2-1) 142.0
2) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (3-0) 140.9
3) Marlington (Alliance) (3-0) 138.8
4) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (3-0) 135.3
5) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (3-0) 134.7
6) Chagrin Falls (3-0) 134.1
7) Ravenna (2-1) 133.4
8) Steubenville (3-0) 132.7
9) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (3-0) 132.2
10) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (1-2) 128.8
11) Benedictine (Cleveland) (3-0) 127.5
12) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (1-2) 127.0
13) Taft (Cincinnati) (2-1) 124.6
14) Dover (2-1) 124.6
15) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (2-1) 124.0

Division IV Rankings
1) Kenton (3-0) 135.8
2) Waynesville (3-0) 135.1
3) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (3-0) 130.7
4) Girard (3-0) 129.7
5) Ironton (3-0) 128.9
6) Genoa Area (Genoa) (3-0) 127.8
7) Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) (3-0) 125.5
8) Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) (3-0) 125.4
9) Norwayne (Creston) (3-0) 124.5
10) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (1-2) 122.2
11) Bath (Lima) (2-1) 121.9
12) Orrville (2-1) 121.2
13) Eastwood (Pemberville) (3-0) 121.2
14) Coshocton (3-0) 119.5
15) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (3-0) 119.4

Division V Rankings
1) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (3-0) 138.4
2) Ursuline (Youngstown) (0-3) 133.4
3) Coldwater (2-1) 129.6
4) Kirtland (3-0) 128.2
5) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (3-0) 122.0
6) Ridgewood (West Lafayette) (3-0) 120.5
7) Pleasant (Marion) (3-0) 120.5
8) Memorial (Campbell) (3-0) 119.4
9) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (3-0) 119.1
10) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (3-0) 119.1
11) Wynford (Bucyrus) (3-0) 118.9
12) Columbus Grove (3-0) 118.6
13) Liberty Center (3-0) 117.0
14) Bluffton (3-0) 115.1
15) West Jefferson (3-0) 114.8

Division VI Rankings
1) St John’s (Delphos) (1-2) 129.2
2) Ada (2-1) 119.1
3) Minster (2-1) 116.8
4) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (2-1) 111.8
5) Malvern (3-0) 111.3
6) Calvert (Tiffin) (3-0) 111.0
7) John F Kennedy (Warren) (2-1) 110.7
8) Catholic Central (Springfield) (2-1) 110.2
9) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (3-0) 109.8
10) Mc Comb (1-2) 109.2
11) St Henry (1-2) 108.6
12) Leipsic (2-1) 107.9
13) Ledgemont (Thompson) (3-0) 107.1
14) Harvest Preparatory (Canal Winchester) (3-0) 106.7
15) Danville (3-0) 105.6

Click here for This Week’s Game Predictions

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