The Fantastic 50: Who debuts as the state’s top team?

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Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

Based on Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 formula, what team – regardless of division – is No. 1 in Ohio? St. Xavier? Colerain? Mentor? Middletown? Trotwood-Madison? Moeller? Click here to see who the computers like.


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

This Week’s Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 
1) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (2-0, D1 R4) 157.1
2) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (2-0, D1 R4) 156.8
3) St Edward (Lakewood) (2-0, D1 R1) 153.1
4) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-0, D1 R4) 152.9
5) Mentor (2-0, D1 R1) 151.2
6) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (2-0, D1 R1) 148.0
7) Solon (2-0, D1 R1) 147.7
8) Middletown (2-0, D1 R4) 145.4
9) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (0-2, D1 R1) 145.4
10) La Salle (Cincinnati) (2-0, D1 R4) 145.2
11) Colerain (Cincinnati) (2-0, D1 R4) 144.6
12) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (2-0, D3 R11) 143.8
13) Lincoln (Gahanna) (2-0, D1 R3) 143.8
14) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (1-0, D1 R3) 143.5
15) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (1-1, D1 R2) 142.8
16) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (2-0, D2 R8) 140.0
17) Kings (Kings Mills) (2-0, D2 R8) 140.0
18) Maple Heights (2-0, D2 R6) 139.7
19) Ursuline (Youngstown) (0-2, D5 R17) 139.0
20) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (2-0, D5 R18) 138.7
21) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (2-0, D1 R3) 138.0
22) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (2-0, D1 R3) 137.8
23) Centerville (0-2, D1 R4) 137.7
24) Hamilton (1-1, D1 R4) 137.5
25) Lancaster (2-0, D1 R3) 137.1
26) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (2-0, D3 R12) 137.1
27) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (2-0, D3 R12) 137.0
28) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (2-0, D1 R1) 136.9
29) Wayne (Huber Heights) (0-2, D1 R4) 136.8
30) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (2-0, D3 R9) 136.7
31) St John’S Jesuit (Toledo) (2-0, D1 R2) 136.4
32) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (0-2, D1 R3) 136.2
33) Chagrin Falls (2-0, D3 R9) 136.0
34) Aurora (2-0, D2 R5) 135.7
35) Fremont Ross (Fremont) (2-0, D2 R6) 135.6
36) Kenton (2-0, D4 R14) 135.0
37) Marlington (Alliance) (2-0, D3 R11) 134.2
38) Sycamore (Cincinnati) (2-0, D1 R4) 133.9
39) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (1-1, D1 R2) 133.3
40) Howland (Warren) (2-0, D2 R5) 133.1
41) Glenoak (Canton) (2-0, D1 R2) 132.9
42) Princeton (Cincinnati) (2-0, D1 R4) 132.8
43) Steubenville (2-0, D3 R11) 132.5
44) Westerville Central (Westerville) (2-0, D1 R3) 131.9
45) Canfield (2-0, D2 R5) 131.8
46) Tri-Valley (Dresden) (2-0, D2 R7) 131.8
47) Whitmer (Toledo) (2-0, D1 R2) 131.7
48) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (1-1, D2 R8) 131.7
49) Jackson (Massillon) (2-0, D1 R2) 131.6
50) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (2-0, D3 R9) 131.4
 
Division I Rankings 
1) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (2-0) 157.1
2) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (2-0) 156.8
3) St Edward (Lakewood) (2-0) 153.1
4) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-0) 152.9
5) Mentor (2-0) 151.2
6) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (2-0) 148.0
7) Solon (2-0) 147.7
8) Middletown (2-0) 145.4
9) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (0-2) 145.4
10) La Salle (Cincinnati) (2-0) 145.2
11) Colerain (Cincinnati) (2-0) 144.6
12) Lincoln (Gahanna) (2-0) 143.8
13) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (1-0) 143.5
14) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (1-1) 142.8
15) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (2-0) 138.0

Division II Rankings
1) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (2-0) 140.0
2) Kings (Kings Mills) (2-0) 140.0
3) Maple Heights (2-0) 139.7
4) Aurora (2-0) 135.7
5) Fremont Ross (Fremont) (2-0) 135.6
6) Howland (Warren) (2-0) 133.1
7) Canfield (2-0) 131.8
8) Tri-Valley (Dresden) (2-0) 131.8
9) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (1-1) 131.7
10) Central Catholic (Toledo) (1-1) 130.5
11) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (1-1) 128.9
12) Avon (2-0) 128.4
13) Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) (2-0) 128.3
14) Louisville (1-1) 127.7
15) Wapakoneta (2-0) 126.3

Division III Rankings
1) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (2-0) 143.8
2) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (2-0) 137.1
3) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (2-0) 137.0
4) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (2-0) 136.7
5) Chagrin Falls (2-0) 136.0
6) Marlington (Alliance) (2-0) 134.2
7) Steubenville (2-0) 132.5
8) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (2-0) 131.4
9) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (1-1) 131.1
10) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (1-1) 129.3
11) Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) (1-1) 128.0
12) Poland Seminary (Poland) (1-1) 127.3
13) Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) (2-0) 126.6
14) Dover (2-0) 126.6
15) Eaton (2-0) 126.2

Division IV Rankings
1) Kenton (2-0) 135.0
2) Ironton (2-0) 130.0
3) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (2-0) 129.8
4) Genoa Area (Genoa) (2-0) 129.1
5) Orrville (2-0) 128.0
6) Girard (2-0) 128.0
7) Waynesville (2-0) 127.2
8) Johnstown-Monroe (Johnstown) (2-0) 126.2
9) Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) (2-0) 122.0
10) Martins Ferry (2-0) 121.3
11) Bath (Lima) (2-0) 120.3
12) North Union (Richwood) (2-0) 119.1
13) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (2-0) 118.1
14) Labrae (Leavittsburg) (2-0) 117.3
15) Roger Bacon (St Bernard) (1-1) 116.9

Division V Rankings
1) Ursuline (Youngstown) (0-2) 139.0
2) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (2-0) 138.7
3) Kirtland (2-0) 125.9
4) Coldwater (1-1) 125.6
5) Anna (2-0) 122.8
6) Wynford (Bucyrus) (2-0) 122.5
7) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (2-0) 118.6
8) Pleasant (Marion) (2-0) 118.4
9) Memorial (Campbell) (2-0) 117.8
10) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (2-0) 117.4
11) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (2-0) 117.0
12) Versailles (2-0) 116.9
13) Columbus Grove (2-0) 116.0
14) Hillsdale (Jeromesville) (2-0) 115.6
15) Columbiana (2-0) 114.7

Division VI Rankings
1) St John’s (Delphos) (0-2) 127.9
2) Minster (2-0) 122.8
3) Ada (2-0) 122.0
4) Mc Comb (1-1) 113.9
5) Calvert (Tiffin) (2-0) 113.7
6) Malvern (2-0) 112.3
7) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (1-1) 111.9
8) John F Kennedy (Warren) (2-0) 110.0
9) Leipsic (1-1) 108.9
10) Catholic Central (Springfield) (1-1) 108.8
11) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (2-0) 107.0
12) Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (0-2) 107.0
13) Ledgemont (Thompson) (2-0) 105.8
14) Fort Loramie (1-1) 105.8
15) St Henry (0-2) 105.7

Click here for This Week’s Game Predictions

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