Who wins in Week 14? Here’s what the numbers say…

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Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

Who wins this weekend? Wayne or Davidson? Maple Heights or Mentor Lake Catholic? Orrville or Chagrin Falls? Alter or Hartley? Coldwater or Fredericktown? Mogadore or Shadyside? 
Here’s who the computers and the Drew
Pasteur Fantastic 50

formula favors…


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

Rankings and Predictions
Here are this week’s Fantastic 50
rankings. Want to debate? Do it in the JJ forums.

DREW
PASTEUR’S OHIO FANTASTIC 50: WEEK 14

PREDICTIONS FOR THE STATE SEMIFINALS

Division I
#1 St Edward (Lakewood) (13-0) by 24 (95%) vs #22 Whitmer (Toledo) (12-1)
#2 Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (13-0) by 2 (55%) vs #5 Wayne (Huber Heights) (10-3)

Division II
#8 Lake Catholic (Mentor) (12-1) by 6 (67%) vs #19 Maple Heights (13-0)
#21 Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (11-2) by 6 (67%) vs #33 Lake (Uniontown) (10-3)

Division III
#17 Marlington (Alliance) (13-0) by 9 (75%) vs #36 Buchtel (Akron) (10-3)
#14 Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (11-1) by 12 (81%) vs #44 Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) (11-2)

Division IV
#37 Chagrin Falls (12-1) by 8 (72%) vs Orrville (10-3)
#26 Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (11-2) by 16 (87%) vs Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (11-2)

Division V
#3 Ursuline (Youngstown) (13-0) by 15 (85%) vs #28 Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (12-1)
#34 Coldwater (10-3) by 6 (67%) vs Fredericktown (13-0)

Division VI
Mogadore (13-0) by 3 (60%) vs Shadyside (12-1)
#6 St John’s (Delphos) (13-0) by 23 (95%) vs Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (12-1)

Prediction Results 

Season-to-date predictions
Record: 2940-712 (80.5%)
Within 7 points: 1263 (34.6%)
Within 3 points: 611 (16.7%)
Winner and exact margin: 74 (2.0%)

Playoff predictions
Record: 130-38 (77.4%)
Within 7 points: 59 (35.1%)
Within 3 points: 21 (12.5%)
Winner and exact margin: 1 (0.6%)

By week
Week #1: 244-102 (70.5%)
Week #2: 261-80 (76.5%)
Week #3: 256-88 (74.4%)
Week #4: 281-68 (80.5%)
Week #5: 277-69 (80.0%)
Week #6: 304-47 (86.6%)
Week #7: 302-52 (85.3%)
Week #8: 288-64 (81.8%)
Week #9: 296-53 (84.8%)
Week #10: 296-57 (83.9%
First Round: 77-19 (80.2%)
Second Round: 37-11 (77.1%)
Regional Finals: 16-8 (66.7%)

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