The Fantastic 50: St. Edward, Davidson, Wayne and Ursuline make play for No. 1

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Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

The latest Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 calculations are out.
Based on numbers,
mathematics and football, this formula calculates and ranks the state’s
top teams regardless of division.
So…St. Edward is still No. 1 this week but there’s a new No.
2 for the third straight week…
who moved up? And who lost but is still ranked high?


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

Rankings and Predictions
Here are this week’s Fantastic 50
rankings. Want to debate? Do it in the JJ forums.

CLICK
HERE FOR REGIONAL FINAL (WEEK 14) PREDICTIONS

DREW PASTEUR’S OHIO FANTASTIC 50: WEEK 14
1) St Edward (Lakewood) (13-0, D1 R1) 167.4
2) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (13-0, D1 R3) 156.1
3) Ursuline (Youngstown) (13-0, D5 R17) 154.7
4) Colerain (Cincinnati) (11-1, D1 R4) 154.5
5) Wayne (Huber Heights) (10-3, D1 R4) 154.3
6) St John’S (Delphos) (13-0, D6 R22) 153.7
7) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (7-5, D1 R4) 152.5
8) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (12-1, D2 R5) 152.1
9) Solon (12-1, D1 R1) 152.0
10) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (7-4, D1 R4) 151.5
11) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (11-1, D1 R3) 150.9
12) Centerville (9-3, D1 R4) 150.5
13) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (11-1, D1 R1) 150.5
14) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (11-1, D3 R10) 148.3
15) La Salle (Cincinnati) (9-2, D1 R4) 147.8
16) Middletown (10-1, D1 R4) 147.6
17) Marlington (Alliance) (13-0, D3 R11) 147.1
18) Springfield (9-3, D1 R3) 146.5
19) Maple Heights (13-0, D2 R6) 145.8
20) Mentor (7-4, D1 R1) 144.4
21) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (11-2, D2 R8) 144.2
22) Whitmer (Toledo) (12-1, D1 R2) 143.2
23) Elder (Cincinnati) (4-5, D1 R4) 143.1
24) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (8-3, D1 R2) 143.0
25) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (10-2, D1 R1) 142.9
26) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (11-2, D4 R16) 142.8
27) Kenton (11-2, D4 R16) 141.8
28) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (12-1, D5 R18) 140.2
29) Hamilton (7-4, D1 R4) 140.0
30) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (5-6, D3 R10) 139.5
31) St John’S Jesuit (Toledo) (11-2, D1 R2) 139.3
32) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (10-2, D2 R8) 138.5
33) Lake (Uniontown) (10-3, D2 R7) 138.1
34) Coldwater (10-3, D5 R20) 138.0
35) Howland (Warren) (11-1, D2 R5) 137.7
36) Buchtel (Akron) (10-3, D3 R9) 137.6
37) Chagrin Falls (12-1, D4 R13) 137.1
38) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (7-5, D3 R9) 136.8
39) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (4-6, D1 R1) 136.7
40) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (7-3, D2 R5) 136.6
41) Ashland (10-3, D2 R5) 136.5
42) Westerville South (Westerville) (9-3, D1 R3) 136.2
43) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (10-2, D4 R16) 136.0
44) Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) (11-2, D3 R12) 135.9
45) New Albany (10-1, D2 R7) 135.3
46) Warren G Harding (Warren) (8-3, D1 R1) 135.2
47) South (Willoughby) (9-2, D1 R1) 135.0
48) Anna (8-3, D5 R20) 134.5
49) Strongsville (6-4, D1 R1) 134.5
50) Northmont (Clayton) (6-4, D1 R4) 134.1
 
Division I Rankings  (Back to top)
1) St Edward (Lakewood) (13-0) 167.4
2) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (13-0) 156.1
3) Colerain (Cincinnati) (11-1) 154.5
4) Wayne (Huber Heights) (10-3) 154.3
5) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (7-5) 152.5
6) Solon (12-1) 152.0
7) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (7-4) 151.5
8) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (11-1) 150.9
9) Centerville (9-3) 150.5
10) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (11-1) 150.5
11) La Salle (Cincinnati) (9-2) 147.8
12) Middletown (10-1) 147.6
13) Springfield (9-3) 146.5
14) Mentor (7-4) 144.4
15) Whitmer (Toledo) (12-1) 143.2

Division II Rankings
1) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (12-1) 152.1
2) Maple Heights (13-0) 145.8
3) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (11-2) 144.2
4) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (10-2) 138.5
5) Lake (Uniontown) (10-3) 138.1
6) Howland (Warren) (11-1) 137.7
7) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (7-3) 136.6
8) Ashland (10-3) 136.5
9) New Albany (10-1) 135.3
10) Louisville (7-3) 132.3
11) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (11-1) 131.7
12) Central Catholic (Toledo) (8-3) 131.6
13) Ravenna (8-2) 130.8
14) Kings (Kings Mills) (11-2) 130.2
15) Aurora (8-3) 127.4

Division III Rankings
1) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (11-1) 148.3
2) Marlington (Alliance) (13-0) 147.1
3) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (5-6) 139.5
4) Buchtel (Akron) (10-3) 137.6
5) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (7-5) 136.8
6) Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) (11-2) 135.9
7) Poland Seminary (Poland) (7-4) 131.6
8) Dover (10-3) 130.6
9) Columbian (Tiffin) (11-2) 129.8
10) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (7-5) 129.3
11) Elida (9-3) 129.0
12) Eaton (12-1) 129.0
13) Sheridan (Thornville) (11-1) 128.6
14) Minerva (8-3) 127.3
15) Padua Franciscan (Parma) (8-4) 126.8

Division IV Rankings
1) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (11-2) 142.8
2) Kenton (11-2) 141.8
3) Chagrin Falls (12-1) 137.1
4) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (10-2) 136.0
5) Clear Fork (Bellville) (10-2) 132.8
6) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (11-1) 132.0
7) Orrville (10-3) 128.8
8) Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) (7-3) 128.7
9) Genoa Area (Genoa) (12-1) 128.0
10) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (11-2) 127.0
11) Ironton (10-3) 126.7
12) Lakeview (Cortland) (9-3) 126.3
13) Manchester (Akron) (12-1) 126.2
14) Carlisle (10-1) 124.7
15) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (8-3) 123.9

Division V Rankings
1) Ursuline (Youngstown) (13-0) 154.7
2) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (12-1) 140.2
3) Coldwater (10-3) 138.0
4) Anna (8-3) 134.5
5) Fredericktown (13-0) 131.9
6) Tinora (Defiance) (10-1) 128.0
7) Hillsdale (Jeromesville) (11-2) 126.9
8) Badin (Hamilton) (6-6) 126.8
9) Kirtland (12-1) 126.6
10) Archbold (11-1) 124.7
11) Versailles (6-4) 123.8
12) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (10-2) 120.9
13) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (10-2) 120.5
14) West Jefferson (12-1) 120.3
15) Wheelersburg (9-3) 120.3

Division VI Rankings
1) St John’S (Delphos) (13-0) 153.7
2) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (9-3) 131.7
3) Mc Comb (12-1) 131.1
4) Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (12-1) 130.2
5) Ada (10-2) 130.1
6) Leipsic (9-2) 121.9
7) Mogadore (13-0) 121.2
8) Minster (7-6) 120.3
9) Columbus Grove (7-3) 117.9
10) Shadyside (12-1) 117.7
11) Mohawk (Sycamore) (10-2) 114.4
12) Wynford (Bucyrus) (10-1) 113.9
13) St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) (9-2) 113.6
14) Catholic Central (Springfield) (9-2) 112.7
15) Bridgeport (12-1) 111.2

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