Who wins in Week 12? Here’s what the numbers say…

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Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

Who wins this weekend? St. Edward or Glenville? Centerville or Wayne? Marlington or Licking Valley? Clear Fork or Genoa? Kenton or Clinton-Massie? Alder or Alter? Oak Hill or Minford? Coldwater or Badin? Here’s who the computers and the Drew
Pasteur Fantastic 50

formula favors…


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

Rankings and Predictions
Here are this week’s Fantastic 50
rankings. Want to debate? Do it in the JJ forums.

DREW
PASTEUR’S OHIO FANTASTIC 50: WEEK 11

PREDICTIONS FOR THE REGIONAL SEMIFINALS

Division I – Region 1
Division I – Region 1
#10 Solon (11-0) by 5 (64%) vs #19 Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (10-1)
#1 St Edward (Lakewood) (11-0) by 10 (76%) vs #4 Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (11-0)

Division I – Region 2
#41 St John’S Jesuit (Toledo) (10-1) by 4 (62%) vs Medina (9-2)
#33 Whitmer (Toledo) (10-1) by 6 (66%) vs Twinsburg (10-1)

Division I – Region 3
#8 Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (10-0) by 14 (84%) vs #35 Westerville South (Westerville) (9-2)
#13 Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (11-0) by 2 (55%) vs #17 Springfield (9-2)

Division I – Region 4
#9 Wayne (Huber Heights) (8-3) by 2 (54%) vs #11 Centerville (9-2)
#2 Colerain (Cincinnati) (11-0) by 4 (62%) vs #5 St Xavier (Cincinnati) (6-4)

Division II – Region 5
#47 Ashland (9-2) by 6 (67%) vs Tallmadge (11-0)
#12 Lake Catholic (Mentor) (10-1) by 9 (75%) vs #27 Howland (Warren) (11-0)

Division II – Region 6
#22 Maple Heights (11-0) by 22 (94%) vs Sandusky (7-4)
Maumee (8-3) by 1 (51%) vs Olmsted Falls (8-3)

Division II – Region 7
#31 Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (11-0) by 14 (85%) vs Big Walnut (Sunbury) (9-2)
#38 Lake (Uniontown) (8-3) by 12 (80%) vs Tri-Valley (Dresden) (9-2)

Division II – Region 8
#25 Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (10-1) by 3 (59%) vs #32 Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (9-2)
Kings (Kings Mills) (10-1) by 11 (78%) vs Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) (9-2)

Division III – Region 9
Buchtel (Akron) (8-3) by 1 (53%) vs Padua Franciscan (Parma) (8-3)
#26 Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (6-4) by 11 (78%) vs St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (7-4)

Division III – Region 10
#15 Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (9-1) by 18 (90%) vs Elida (9-2)
Columbian (Tiffin) (10-1) by 8 (71%) vs Clyde (10-1)

Division III – Region 11
#18 Marlington (Alliance) (11-0) by 21 (93%) vs Licking Valley (Newark) (9-2)
Sheridan (Thornville) (11-0) by 5 (63%) vs Dover (9-2)

Division III – Region 12
Eaton (11-0) by 10 (75%) vs Shawnee (Springfield) (10-1)
McNicholas (Cincinnati) (9-2) by 5 (64%) at Roger Bacon (St Bernard) (8-3)

Division IV – Region 13

Manchester (Akron) (11-0) by 4 (60%) vs Memorial (Campbell) (10-1)
Chagrin Falls (10-1) by 2 (55%) vs Lakeview (Cortland) (9-2)

Division IV – Region 14
#42 Clear Fork (Bellville) (10-1) by 9 (74%) vs Genoa Area (Genoa) (11-0)
Orrville (8-3) by 4 (62%) vs Elyria Catholic (Elyria) (10-1)

Division IV – Region 15
Ironton (9-2) by 14 (85%) vs Highland (Sparta) (9-2)
Heath (10-1) by 1 (53%) vs Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (9-2)

Division IV – Region 16
#24 Kenton (10-1) by 8 (71%) vs #48 Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (11-0)
#30 Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (10-1) by 2 (57%) vs #34 Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (9-2)

Division V – Region 17
#3 Ursuline (Youngstown) (11-0) by 35 (99%) vs Norwayne (Creston) (9-2)
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (10-1) by 5 (63%) vs Kirtland (11-0)

Division V – Region 18
#39 Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (10-1) by 9 (73%) vs Archbold (11-0)
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) (10-1) by 3 (59%) vs Patrick Henry (Hamler) (10-1)

Division V – Region 19
Oak Hill (10-1) by 3 (58%) vs Minford (9-2)
Fredericktown (11-0) by 5 (63%) vs Wheelersburg (9-2)

Division V – Region 20
#36 Coldwater (8-3) by 11 (79%) vs Badin (Hamilton) (6-5)
West Jefferson (11-0) by 15 (86%) vs Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) (8-3)

Division VI – Region 21
Dalton (8-3) by 3 (58%) vs Mc Donald (9-2)
Mogadore (11-0) by 8 (71%) vs Ledgemont (Thompson) (11-0)

Division VI – Region 22
#6 St John’s (Delphos) (11-0) by 22 (95%) vs Ada (10-1)
Mc Comb (11-0) by 14 (84%) vs Mohawk (Sycamore) (10-1)

Division VI – Region 23
Shadyside (10-1) by 7 (68%) vs Malvern (8-3)
Bridgeport (11-0) by 13 (82%) vs Newark Catholic (Newark) (8-3)

Division VI – Region 24
#49 Marion Local (Maria Stein) (9-2) by 17 (88%) vs Minster (6-5)
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (10-1) by 14 (84%) vs Covington (11-0)

Playoffs, First Round 
Record: 77-19 (80.2%) By comparison, the higher seeds were only 66-30 (68.8%)
The lower-seeded (visiting) teams that I picked went 13-2.

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Record: 77-19 (80.2%)
Within 7 points: 33 (34.4%)
Within 3 points: 11 (11.5%)
Winner and exact margin: None

BY WEEK
Week #1: 244-102 (70.5%)
Week #2: 261-80 (76.5%)
Week #3: 256-88 (74.4%)
Week #4: 281-68 (80.5%)
Week #5: 277-69 (80.0%)
Week #6: 304-47 (86.6%)
Week #7: 302-52 (85.3%)
Week #8: 288-64 (81.8%)
Week #9: 296-53 (84.8%)
Week #10: 296-57 (83.9%
Week #11: 77-19 (80.2%)

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