Who wins in Week 11? Here’s what the numbers say…

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Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

Who wins this weekend? LCC or Tinora? Massillon or Whitmer? LaSalle or St. Xavier? Mentor or St. Edward? Anna or Coldwater? Ironton or Coshocton? Wattersn or DeSales? Here’s who the computers and the Drew Pasteur Fantastic 50
formula favors…


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

Rankings and Predictions
Here are this week’s Fantastic 50
rankings. Want to debate? Do it in the JJ forums.

DREW
PASTEUR’S OHIO FANTASTIC 50: WEEK 11

PREDICTIONS FOR THIS WEEK’S GAMES

Division I – Region 1
#12 Solon (10-0, D1 R1) by 31 (99%) vs Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights) (7-3, D1 R1)
#18 Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (9-1, D1 R1) by 9 (75%) vs #37 South (Willoughby) (9-1, D1 R1)
#9 Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (10-0, D1 R1) by 15 (86%) vs #38 Warren G Harding (Warren) (8-2, D1 R1)
#1 St Edward (Lakewood) (10-0, D1 R1) by 22 (94%) vs #20 Mentor (7-3, D1 R1)

Division I – Region 2
#16 Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (8-2, D1 R2) by 18 (91%) vs Medina (8-2, D1 R2)
St John’S Jesuit (Toledo) (9-1, D1 R2) by 6 (66%) vs Fremont Ross (Fremont) (9-1, D1 R2)
Twinsburg (9-1, D1 R2) by 4 (61%) at Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) (10-0, D1 R2)
#34 Whitmer (Toledo) (9-1, D1 R2) by 6 (68%) vs Massillon Washington (Massillon) (7-3, D1 R2)

Division I – Region 3
#8 Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (9-0, D1 R3) by 21 (93%) vs Troy (8-2, D1 R3)
#41 Westerville South (Westerville) (8-2, D1 R3) by 1 (52%) vs #39 Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (8-2, D1 R3)
#11 Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (10-0, D1 R3) by 31 (99%) vs Northland (Columbus) (8-2, D1 R3)
#22 Springfield (8-2, D1 R3) by 14 (84%) vs Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) (8-2, D1 R3)

Division I – Region 4
#5 Middletown (10-0, D1 R4) by 8 (72%) vs #15 Wayne (Huber Heights) (7-3, D1 R4)
#4 Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (7-3, D1 R4) by 12 (80%) vs #19 Centerville (8-2, D1 R4)
#3 Colerain (Cincinnati) (10-0, D1 R4) by 15 (86%) vs #24 Hamilton (7-3, D1 R4)
#6 La Salle (Cincinnati) (9-1, D1 R4) by 4 (61%) vs #10 St Xavier (Cincinnati) (5-4, D1 R4)

Division II – Region 5
Tallmadge (10-0, D2 R5) by 3 (60%) vs Roosevelt (Kent) (8-2, D2 R5)
Ashland (8-2, D2 R5) by 6 (68%) vs Aurora (8-2, D2 R5)
#13 Lake Catholic (Mentor) (9-1, D2 R5) by 24 (96%) vs Kenston (Chagrin Falls) (8-2, D2 R5)
#32 Howland (Warren) (10-0, D2 R5) by 13 (83%) at Copley (9-1, D2 R5)

Division II – Region 6
Avon (10-0, D2 R6) by 7 (70%) vs Sandusky (6-4, D2 R6)
#31 Maple Heights (10-0, D2 R6) by 10 (77%) at Central Catholic (Toledo) (8-2, D2 R6)
Avon Lake (8-2, D2 R6) by 6 (67%) vs Maumee (7-3, D2 R6)
Olmsted Falls (7-3, D2 R6) by 20 (92%) vs John F Kennedy (Cleveland) (7-3, D2 R6)

Division II – Region 7
#33 Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (10-0, D2 R7) by 17 (89%) vs Zanesville (9-1, D2 R7)
Canal Winchester (9-1, D2 R7) by 7 (68%) vs Big Walnut (Sunbury) (8-2, D2 R7)
#30 New Albany (10-0, D2 R7) by 23 (95%) vs Tri-Valley (Dresden) (8-2, D2 R7)
#44 Lake (Uniontown) (7-3, D2 R7) by 8 (72%) vs St Charles (Columbus) (5-4, D2 R7)

Division II – Region 8
#28 Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (9-1, D2 R8) by 20 (92%) vs Carroll (Dayton) (7-3, D2 R8)
#35 Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (8-2, D2 R8) by 23 (95%) vs Harrison (5-5, D2 R8)
Kings (Kings Mills) (9-1, D2 R8) by 20 (92%) vs Tecumseh (New Carlisle) (7-3, D2 R8)
Turpin (Cincinnati) (9-1, D2 R8) by 10 (76%) vs Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) (8-2, D2 R8)

Division III – Region 9
Padua Franciscan (Parma) (7-3, D3 R9) by 11 (79%) vs University School (Hunting Valley) (7-3, D3 R9)
Poland Seminary (Poland) (7-3, D3 R9) by 5 (63%) at Buchtel (Akron) (7-3, D3 R9)
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (6-4, D3 R9) by 3 (58%) at Hubbard (8-2, D3 R9)
#25 Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (5-4, D3 R9) by 23 (95%) at Field (Mogadore) (7-3, D3 R9)

Division III – Region 10
#14 Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (8-1, D3 R10) by 6 (67%) vs #23 St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (5-5, D3 R10)
Elida (8-2, D3 R10) by 9 (74%) at Tippecanoe (Tipp City) (9-1, D3 R10)
Clyde (9-1, D3 R10) by 6 (67%) vs Shelby (8-2, D3 R10)
Columbian (Tiffin) (9-1, D3 R10) by 14 (84%) vs Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) (6-3, D3 R10)

Division III – Region 11
#17 Marlington (Alliance) (10-0, D3 R11) by 18 (91%) vs Minerva (8-2, D3 R11)
Licking Valley (Newark) (8-2, D3 R11) by 10 (77%) at East Liverpool (8-2, D3 R11)
Steubenville (8-2, D3 R11) by 1 (51%) vs Dover (8-2, D3 R11)
Sheridan (Thornville) (10-0, D3 R11) by 7 (69%) vs Salem (8-2, D3 R11)

Division III – Region 12
Shawnee (Springfield) (9-1, D3 R12) by 4 (62%) vs Washington (Washington Court House) (8-2, D3 R12)
Eaton (10-0, D3 R12) by 11 (79%) vs Jackson (9-1, D3 R12)
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) (8-2, D3 R12) by 14 (84%) vs Dunbar (Dayton) (7-3, D3 R12)
Roger Bacon (St Bernard) (7-3, D3 R12) by 4 (61%) vs Wyoming (Cincinnati) (9-1, D3 R12)

Division IV – Region 13
Manchester (Akron) (10-0, D4 R13) by 9 (74%) vs Perry (6-4, D4 R13)
Memorial (Campbell) (9-1, D4 R13) by 1 (51%) at Martins Ferry (8-2, D4 R13)
Chagrin Falls (9-1, D4 R13) by 19 (91%) vs Garfield (Garrettsville) (8-2, D4 R13)
Lakeview (Cortland) (8-2, D4 R13) by 11 (79%) at St Clairsville (8-2, D4 R13)

Division IV – Region 14
#42 Clear Fork (Bellville) (9-1, D4 R14) by 30 (98%) vs Ontario (Mansfield) (7-3, D4 R14)
Genoa Area (Genoa) (10-0, D4 R14) by 3 (59%) vs Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (8-2, D4 R14)
Elyria Catholic (Elyria) (9-1, D4 R14) by 14 (84%) vs Huron (7-3, D4 R14)
Orrville (7-3, D4 R14) by 14 (85%) vs Triway (Wooster) (8-2, D4 R14)

Division IV – Region 15
Ironton (8-2, D4 R15) by 12 (81%) vs Coshocton (8-2, D4 R15)
Highland (Sparta) (8-2, D4 R15) by 2 (57%) vs Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) (8-2, D4 R15)
Heath (9-1, D4 R15) by 27 (97%) vs Alexander (Albany) (8-2, D4 R15)
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (8-2, D4 R15) by 9 (73%) vs Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) (7-3, D4 R15)

Division IV – Region 16
#26 Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (10-0, D4 R16) by 27 (97%) vs Taft (Cincinnati) (7-3, D4 R16)
#29 Kenton (9-1, D4 R16) by 11 (79%) at Carlisle (10-0, D4 R16)
#27 Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (9-1, D4 R16) by 20 (92%) vs Waynesville (8-2, D4 R16)
#47 Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (8-2, D4 R16) by 12 (81%) at North College Hill (Cincinnati) (10-0, D4 R16)

Division V – Region 17
#2 Ursuline (Youngstown) (10-0, D5 R17) by 39 (99%) vs South Range (North Lima) (7-3, D5 R17)
Crestview (Columbiana) (9-1, D5 R17) by 15 (86%) vs Norwayne (Creston) (8-2, D5 R17)
Kirtland (10-0, D5 R17) by 13 (82%) vs Independence (8-2, D5 R17)
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (9-1, D5 R17) by 13 (82%) vs United (Hanoverton) (7-3, D5 R17)

Division V – Region 18
Archbold (10-0, D5 R18) by 24 (96%) vs Northwood (7-3, D5 R18)
#40 Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (9-1, D5 R18) by 14 (84%) vs Tinora (Defiance) (10-0, D5 R18)
Western Reserve (Collins) (10-0, D5 R18) by 3 (58%) vs Hillsdale (Jeromesville) (9-1, D5 R18)
Patrick Henry (Hamler) (9-1, D5 R18) by 13 (83%) vs Columbia (Columbia Station) (9-1, D5 R18)

Division V – Region 19
Oak Hill (9-1, D5 R19) by 15 (86%) vs Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) (8-2, D5 R19)
Minford (8-2, D5 R19) by 6 (65%) vs Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) (8-2, D5 R19)
Fredericktown (10-0, D5 R19) by 14 (84%) vs Monroe Central (Woodsfield) (8-2, D5 R19)
Wheelersburg (8-2, D5 R19) by 2 (57%) vs Ridgewood (West Lafayette) (10-0, D5 R19)

Division V – Region 20
North Union (Richwood) (10-0, D5 R20) by 1 (52%) vs Badin (Hamilton) (5-5, D5 R20)
#43 Anna (8-2, D5 R20) by 3 (59%) vs #50 Coldwater (7-3, D5 R20)
West Jefferson (10-0, D5 R20) by 25 (97%) vs Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) (7-3, D5 R20)
East Clinton (Lees Creek) (8-2, D5 R20) by 1 (51%) at Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) (7-3, D5 R20)

Division VI – Region 21
Wynford (Bucyrus) (10-0, D6 R21) by 23 (95%) vs Dalton (7-3, D6 R21)
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (9-1, D6 R21) by 2 (56%) vs Mc Donald (8-2, D6 R21)
Mogadore (10-0, D6 R21) by 12 (80%) vs Buckeye Central (New Washington) (9-1, D6 R21)
Ledgemont (Thompson) (10-0, D6 R21) by 1 (51%) vs Monroeville (8-2, D6 R21)

Division VI – Region 22
#7 St John’S (Delphos) (10-0, D6 R22) by 42 (99%) vs Edgerton (7-3, D6 R22)
Ada (9-1, D6 R22) by 4 (61%) vs Leipsic (9-1, D6 R22)
Mc Comb (10-0, D6 R22) by 13 (83%) vs St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) (9-1, D6 R22)
Mohawk (Sycamore) (9-1, D6 R22) by 12 (80%) vs Toledo Christian (Toledo) (8-2, D6 R22)

Division VI – Region 23
Shadyside (9-1, D6 R23) by 23 (95%) vs Trimble (Glouster) (7-3, D6 R23)
Malvern (7-3, D6 R23) by 4 (62%) at Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) (9-1, D6 R23)
Bridgeport (10-0, D6 R23) by 24 (95%) vs Southern (Salineville) (8-2, D6 R23)
Newark Catholic (Newark) (7-3, D6 R23) by 22 (94%) vs Fairfield Christian Academy (Lancaster) (9-0, D6 R23)

Division VI – Region 24
Catholic Central (Springfield) (9-1, D6 R24) by 6 (66%) vs Minster (5-5, D6 R24)
Marion Local (Maria Stein) (8-2, D6 R24) by 23 (95%) at Fort Loramie (8-2, D6 R24)
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (9-1, D6 R24) by 31 (99%) vs Lockland (6-4, D6 R24)
Covington (10-0, D6 R24) by 7 (69%) vs Ansonia (9-1, D6 R24)

BY WEEK
Week #1: 244-102 (70.5%)
Week #2: 261-80 (76.5%)
Week #3: 256-88 (74.4%)
Week #4: 281-68 (80.5%)
Week #5: 277-69 (80.0%)
Week #6: 304-47 (86.6%)
Week #7: 302-52 (85.3%)
Week #8: 288-64 (81.8%)
Week #9: 296-53 (84.8%)
Week #10: 296-57 (83.9%)

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