State Championship Odds: Who is favored?

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Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

Courtesy of Drew Pasteur and his Fantastic 50, here are this week’s
computer generated odds
on who wins state titles in all six divisions…


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

Rankings and Predictions
Here are this week’s Fantastic 50
rankings. Want to debate? Do it in the JJ forums.

2010 STATE CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS (At the end of the regular season)

Division I State Championship Odds
St Edward (Lakewood) 2:1
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 10:1
La Salle (Cincinnati) 10:1
Colerain (Cincinnati) 14:1
Middletown 14:1
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 16:1
Solon 16:1
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 17:1
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 23:1
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 25:1
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 35:1
Wayne (Huber Heights) 75:1
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 90:1
Springfield 95:1
Centerville 100:1
Mentor 110:1
Whitmer (Toledo) 140:1
Westerville South (Westerville) 150:1
Hamilton 300:1
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 300:1
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 450:1
 
Division II State Championship Odds
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 5:2
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 6:1
Maple Heights 7:1
New Albany 12:1
Howland (Warren) 15:1
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 18:1
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 19:1
Lake (Uniontown) 20:1
Central Catholic (Toledo) 25:1
Ashland 65:1
St Charles (Columbus) 65:1
Turpin (Cincinnati) 65:1
Aurora 65:1
Ravenna 100:1
Kings (Kings Mills) 120:1
Avon 130:1
Tallmadge 200:1
Canal Winchester 300:1
Roosevelt (Kent) 450:1
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 500:1
Sandusky 500:1
 
Division III State Championship Odds
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 7:2
Marlington (Alliance) 7:2
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 7:2
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 10:1
Eaton 30:1
Minerva 40:1
Columbian (Tiffin) 40:1
Poland Seminary (Poland) 45:1
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 50:1
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 70:1
Steubenville 85:1
Sheridan (Thornville) 90:1
Elida 100:1
Buchtel (Akron) 110:1
Roger Bacon (St Bernard) 130:1
Dover 130:1
Padua Franciscan (Parma) 140:1
Licking Valley (Newark) 190:1
Hubbard 300:1
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 300:1
Shawnee (Springfield) 400:1
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 500:1
 
Division IV State Championship Odds
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 4:1
Clear Fork (Bellville) 6:1
Kenton 6:1
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 7:1
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 10:1
Chagrin Falls 16:1
Lakeview (Cortland) 23:1
Ironton 30:1
Genoa Area (Genoa) 40:1
Heath 40:1
Manchester (Akron) 55:1
Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) 70:1
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 75:1
Carlisle 80:1
Orrville 90:1
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 100:1
Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 130:1
Martins Ferry 130:1
Memorial (Campbell) 150:1
Waynesville 160:1
Coshocton 200:1
Perry 250:1
St Clairsville 350:1
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 400:1
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 500:1
 
Division V State Championship Odds
Ursuline (Youngstown) 1:5
Anna 19:1
Coldwater 30:1
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 40:1
Fredericktown 80:1
Archbold 95:1
Tinora (Defiance) 170:1
West Jefferson 250:1
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 300:1
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 300:1
Badin (Hamilton) 300:1
Wheelersburg 350:1
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 350:1
North Union (Richwood) 350:1
Jeromesville Hillsdale 400:1
 
Division VI State Championship Odds
St John’s (Delphos) 1:2
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 7:1
Ada 18:1
Mc Comb 30:1
Wynford (Bucyrus) 35:1
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 35:1
Bridgeport 55:1
Mogadore 95:1
Leipsic 140:1
Catholic Central (Springfield) 140:1
Shadyside 190:1
Minster 500:1
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 500:1
 
STATE CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS BY REGION

Division I
Region 1 – 46%
Region 2 – 5%
Region 3 – 16%
Region 4 – 33%

Division II
Region 5 – 41%
Region 6 – 17%
Region 7 – 20%
Region 8 – 22%

Division III
Region 9 – 28%
Region 10 – 36%
Region 11 – 29%
Region 12 – 7%

Division IV
Region 13 – 14%
Region 14 – 20%
Region 15 – 8%
Region 16 – 58%

Division V
Region 17 – 84%
Region 18 – 5%
Region 19 – 2%
Region 20 – 9%

Division VI
Region 21 – 4%
Region 22 – 76%
Region 23 – 3%
Region 24 – 17%

 

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