The Fantastic 50: Is Colerain still No. 1?

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Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

The latest Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 calculations are out. Based on numbers,
mathematics and football, this formula calculates and ranks the state’s top teams regardless of division.
So…Is Colerain still No. 1? Is Ursuline still No. 2? See what the numbers say…


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew
Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional
rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the
Fantastic 50?

The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power
rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who
is Drew Pasteur?

Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina,
where he was
a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has
published a North
Carolina

version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

Rankings and Predictions
Here are this week’s Fantastic 50
rankings. Want to debate? Do it in the JJ forums.

CLICK HERE FOR WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS

Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50
1) Colerain (Cincinnati) (4-0, D1 R4) 159.4
2) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (4-0, D1 R1) 159.4
3) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (4-0, D1 R4) 156.7
4) Centerville (4-0, D1 R4) 156.0
5) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (3-1, D1 R4) 155.1
6) Ursuline (Youngstown) (4-0, D5 R17) 154.9
7) St John’S (Delphos) (4-0, D6 R22) 152.5
8) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (3-1, D2 R5) 151.3
9) Middletown (4-0, D1 R4) 148.7
10) Steubenville (4-0, D3 R11) 148.5
11) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (3-0, D1 R3) 148.3
12) St Edward (Lakewood) (4-0, D1 R1) 148.0
13) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-2, D1 R4) 147.4
14) Solon (4-0, D1 R1) 146.2
15) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (3-1, D3 R10) 145.6
16) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (4-0, D1 R3) 143.5
17) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (2-2, D1 R1) 142.2
18) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (3-1, D2 R8) 141.8
19) South (Willoughby) (4-0, D1 R1) 141.5
20) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (4-0, D2 R7) 141.1
21) New Albany (4-0, D2 R7) 141.0
22) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (4-0, D1 R1) 140.9
23) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (2-2, D1 R2) 140.6
24) La Salle (Cincinnati) (4-0, D1 R4) 140.6
25) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (2-2, D3 R9) 140.4
26) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (3-1, D4 R16) 140.3
27) Twinsburg (4-0, D1 R2) 140.3
28) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (3-1, D1 R3) 139.4
29) Hamilton (3-1, D1 R4) 138.8
30) Wayne (Huber Heights) (2-2, D1 R4) 138.6
31) Lake (Uniontown) (4-0, D2 R7) 138.6
32) Westerville South (Westerville) (3-1, D1 R3) 138.3
33) Howland (Warren) (4-0, D2 R5) 138.1
34) Anderson (Cincinnati) (3-1, D1 R4) 137.8
35) Marlington (Alliance) (4-0, D3 R11) 137.5
36) Northmont (Clayton) (2-2, D1 R4) 137.3
37) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (4-0, D4 R16) 137.1
38) Perry (Massillon) (4-0, D1 R2) 137.0
39) Springfield (3-1, D1 R3) 136.8
40) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (3-1, D3 R10) 136.2
41) Maple Heights (4-0, D2 R6) 136.2
42) Kenton (3-1, D4 R16) 136.1
43) Turpin (Cincinnati) (4-0, D2 R8) 135.7
44) Groveport-Madison (Groveport) (4-0, D1 R3) 135.6
45) Buchtel (Akron) (2-2, D3 R9) 135.4
46) Ashland (3-1, D2 R5) 134.9
47) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (3-1, D1 R2) 134.4
48) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (4-0, D4 R14) 134.3
49) St John’S Jesuit (Toledo) (4-0, D1 R2) 134.2
50) Mentor (1-3, D1 R1) 133.3

 
Division I Rankings  
1) Colerain (Cincinnati) (4-0) 159.4
2) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (4-0) 159.4
3) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (4-0) 156.7
4) Centerville (4-0) 156.0
5) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (3-1) 155.1
6) Middletown (4-0) 148.7
7) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (3-0) 148.3
8) St Edward (Lakewood) (4-0) 148.0
9) Elder (Cincinnati) (2-2) 147.4
10) Solon (4-0) 146.2
11) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (4-0) 143.5
12) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (2-2) 142.2
13) South (Willoughby) (4-0) 141.5
14) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (4-0) 140.9
15) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (2-2) 140.6

Division II Rankings
1) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (3-1) 151.3
2) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (3-1) 141.8
3) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (4-0) 141.1
4) New Albany (4-0) 141.0
5) Lake (Uniontown) (4-0) 138.6
6) Howland (Warren) (4-0) 138.1
7) Maple Heights (4-0) 136.2
8) Turpin (Cincinnati) (4-0) 135.7
9) Ashland (3-1) 134.9
10) St Charles (Columbus) (4-0) 132.9
11) Carroll (Dayton) (4-0) 132.7
12) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (3-1) 132.1
13) Aurora (3-1) 131.8
14) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (3-1) 131.7
15) Olentangy (Lewis Center) (3-1) 130.7

Division III Rankings
1) Steubenville (4-0) 148.5
2) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (3-1) 145.6
3) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (2-2) 140.4
4) Marlington (Alliance) (4-0) 137.5
5) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (3-1) 136.2
6) Buchtel (Akron) (2-2) 135.4
7) Minerva (4-0) 132.1
8) Dover (2-2) 128.8
9) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (3-1) 128.2
10) Poland Seminary (Poland) (2-2) 128.0
11) Hubbard (3-1) 125.1
12) Eaton (4-0) 122.2
13) Tippecanoe (Tipp City) (4-0) 122.0
14) Columbian (Tiffin) (3-1) 121.4
15) Padua Franciscan (Parma) (3-1) 121.4

Division IV Rankings
1) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (3-1) 140.3
2) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (4-0) 137.1
3) Kenton (3-1) 136.1
4) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (4-0) 134.3
5) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (3-1) 129.3
6) Genoa Area (Genoa) (4-0) 128.2
7) Carlisle (4-0) 127.7
8) Elyria Catholic (Elyria) (4-0) 127.1
9) Perry (4-0) 127.0
10) Ironton (4-0) 126.5
11) Orrville (3-1) 126.0
12) Chagrin Falls (3-1) 126.0
13) Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) (4-0) 125.7
14) Manchester (Akron) (4-0) 123.2
15) Coshocton (3-1) 121.9

Division V Rankings
1) Ursuline (Youngstown) (4-0) 154.9
2) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (3-1) 132.7
3) Anna (3-1) 132.4
4) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (4-0) 129.8
5) Versailles (4-0) 127.2
6) Tinora (Defiance) (4-0) 126.7
7) Oak Hill (4-0) 123.6
8) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (4-0) 123.0
9) Badin (Hamilton) (2-2) 122.4
10) Coldwater (2-2) 122.0
11) West Jefferson (4-0) 121.9
12) St Henry (2-2) 121.9
13) Fredericktown (4-0) 121.6
14) North Union (Richwood) (4-0) 121.2
15) Ridgewood (West Lafayette) (4-0) 120.1

Division VI Rankings
1) St John’s (Delphos) (4-0) 152.5
2) Ada (4-0) 132.7
3) Mc Comb (4-0) 131.0
4) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (4-0) 130.5
5) Leipsic (3-1) 125.2
6) St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) (4-0) 120.6
7) St Paul (Norwalk) (3-1) 120.2
8) Wynford (Bucyrus) (4-0) 119.6
9) Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (3-1) 117.6
10) Mogadore (4-0) 117.1
11) Columbus Grove (2-2) 115.7
12) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (4-0) 115.2
13) Shadyside (4-0) 114.6
14) Bridgeport (4-0) 113.8
15) Dalton (4-0) 113.1

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