The Fantastic 50 and State Championship Odds; Who is favored?

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Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

Even though Glenville won and earned a berth in its first state championship, the Tarblooders fell out of the No. 1 spot in the Fantastic 50. Who took over? Youngstown Mooney by virtue of its impressive win over Steubenville. The real question is now – do both win state titles this weekend?  Here’s what the numbers say…


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the Fantastic 50?
The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew Pasteur?
Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where he was a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has published a North Carolina
version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

Rankings and Predictions
Here are this week’s Fantastic 50 rankings. Want to debate? Do it in the JJ forums.

Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 
1) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (14-0, D3 R9) 159.0
2) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (13-1, D1 R1) 158.4
3) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (11-1, D1 R1) 153.7
4) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (12-1, D1 R3) 152.6
5) Elder (Cincinnati) (10-3, D1 R4) 152.5
6) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (9-3, D1 R4) 151.7
7) Anderson (Cincinnati) (12-1, D1 R4) 151.6
8) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (14-0, D4 R16) 151.3
9) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-2, D1 R4) 150.8
10) Steubenville (12-2, D3 R11) 149.4
11) Solon (12-1, D1 R1) 147.6
12) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (12-1, D1 R3) 146.9
13) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (12-2, D2 R8) 146.6
14) Middletown (10-2, D1 R4) 146.5
15) St John’s (Delphos) (14-0, D6 R22) 146.0
16) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (11-3, D3 R10) 145.9
17) Coldwater (13-1, D5 R20) 144.3
18) Colerain (Cincinnati) (8-2, D1 R4) 144.2
19) Ursuline (Youngstown) (10-3, D5 R17) 143.6
20) Lakota West (West Chester) (9-2, D1 R4) 142.7
21) Westerville South (Westerville) (9-3, D1 R3) 142.4
22) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (10-4, D1 R2) 142.1
23) Mayfield (10-2, D1 R1) 141.5
24) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (12-2, D2 R5) 140.7
25) Dover (11-2, D3 R11) 140.2
26) Centerville (8-3, D1 R4) 139.7
27) Louisville (10-1, D2 R7) 139.2
28) Mentor (6-4, D1 R1) 138.6
29) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (8-5, D1 R2) 138.3
30) Wayne (Huber Heights) (7-4, D1 R4) 138.1
31) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (10-2, D1 R3) 137.4
32) Chagrin Falls (14-0, D4 R13) 137.3
33) St Paul (Norwalk) (14-0, D6 R21) 136.0
34) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (9-4, D3 R10) 135.9
35) Northmont (Clayton) (6-4, D1 R4) 135.8
36) Logan (11-1, D2 R7) 135.4
37) Twinsburg (10-2, D1 R2) 135.2
38) Maple Heights (12-2#, D2 R6) 135.2
39) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (13-1, D5 R18) 134.8
40) Hoover (North Canton) (7-4, D1 R2) 134.0
41) Glenoak (Canton) (9-3, D1 R2) 133.4
42) Boardman (Youngstown) (7-4, D1 R1) 133.4
43) Poland Seminary (Poland) (10-3, D3 R9) 133.4
44) Ada (12-1, D6 R22) 132.9
45) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (9-4, D2 R8) 132.5
46) Warren G Harding (Warren) (7-3-1, D1 R1) 132.5
47) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (11-3, D2 R7) 132.5
48) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (12-1, D4 R16) 131.9
49) St Edward (Lakewood) (4-6, D1 R1) 131.9
50) Ashland (11-2, D2 R5) 131.8

Division I Rankings 
1) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (13-1) 158.4
2) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (11-1) 153.7
3) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (12-1) 152.6
4) Elder (Cincinnati) (10-3) 152.5
5) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (9-3) 151.7
6) Anderson (Cincinnati) (12-1) 151.6
7) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-2) 150.8
8) Solon (12-1) 147.6
9) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (12-1) 146.9
10) Middletown (10-2) 146.5
11) Colerain (Cincinnati) (8-2) 144.2
12) Lakota West (West Chester) (9-2) 142.7
13) Westerville South (Westerville) (9-3) 142.4
14) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (10-4) 142.1
15) Mayfield (10-2) 141.5

Division II Rankings
1) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (12-2) 146.6
2) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (12-2) 140.7
3) Louisville (10-1) 139.2
4) Logan (11-1) 135.4
5) Maple Heights (12-2#) 135.2
6) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (9-4) 132.5
7) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (11-3) 132.5
8) Ashland (11-2) 131.8
9) Canfield (10-2) 131.7
10) Brookhaven (Columbus) (10-3) 130.3
11) New Philadelphia (9-1) 129.6
12) Central Catholic (Toledo) (9-3) 129.0
13) Turpin (Cincinnati) (11-1) 127.4
14) Tecumseh (New Carlisle) (10-2) 127.4
15) Howland (Warren) (10-2) 126.2

Division III Rankings
1) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (14-0) 159.0
2) Steubenville (12-2) 149.4
3) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (11-3) 145.9
4) Dover (11-2) 140.2
5) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (9-4) 135.9
6) Poland Seminary (Poland) (10-3) 133.4
7) Hubbard (10-2) 129.3
8) Archbishop Hoban (Akron) (8-4) 128.2
9) Northwest (Canal Fulton) (8-4) 127.9
10) Padua Franciscan (Parma) (7-4) 125.6
11) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (6-5) 125.0
12) Marlington (Alliance) (8-3) 124.8
13) Shawnee (Lima) (7-3) 124.5
14) Napoleon (9-3) 123.0
15) Wyoming (Cincinnati) (13-1) 121.3

Division IV Rankings
1) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (14-0) 151.3
2) Chagrin Falls (14-0) 137.3
3) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (12-1) 131.9
4) Kenton (10-2) 131.6
5) Genoa Area (Genoa) (11-1) 128.9
6) Coshocton (11-3) 127.7
7) Orrville (9-4) 126.4
8) Ironton (10-3) 125.6
9) Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) (11-1) 124.5
10) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (11-3) 124.0
11) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (7-3$) 122.6
12) Woodridge (Peninsula) (10-3) 121.1
13) Girard (11-1) 121.0
14) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (7-4) 120.5
15) Clear Fork (Bellville) (7-4) 120.1

Division V Rankings
1) Coldwater (13-1) 144.3
2) Ursuline (Youngstown) (10-3) 143.6
3) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (13-1) 134.8
4) Anna (9-3) 131.1
5) St Henry (9-4) 129.7
6) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (12-1) 128.3
7) Tinora (Defiance) (11-2) 126.8
8) Ridgewood (West Lafayette) (13-1) 123.6
9) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (9-3) 121.9
10) Bishop Ready (Columbus) (8-2) 121.1
11) Wheelersburg (9-3) 120.2
12) Fredericktown (12-1) 119.3
13) Versailles (6-4) 118.9
14) West Jefferson (9-2) 118.8
15) Badin (Hamilton) (7-4) 116.9

Division VI Rankings
1) St John’s (Delphos) (14-0) 146.0
2) St Paul (Norwalk) (14-0) 136.0
3) Ada (12-1) 132.9
4) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (8-6) 124.5
5) Wynford (Bucyrus) (12-1) 124.1
6) Leipsic (10-2) 123.2
7) Carey (10-2) 121.8
8) Mogadore (10-2) 119.1
9) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (9-3) 116.8
10) Mc Donald (10-1) 113.3
11) Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (7-4) 112.6
12) St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) (9-2) 112.2
13) Mc Comb (7-3) 112.2
14) Malvern (11-2) 110.7
15) New Bremen (5-5) 110.6

 
STATE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PREDICTIONS

Regional Finals: 18-6 (75%), higher seeds 13-11 (54%)
State Semifinals: 10-2 (83.3%)

Division I Championship
#2 Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (13-1, Region 1) by 6 (66%) vs #4 Hilliard Davidson (12-1, Region 3)

Division II Championship
#13 Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (12-2, Region 8) by 11 (79%) vs #38 Maple Heights (12-2#, Region 6)

Division III Championship
#1 Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (14-0, Region 9) by 13 (83%) vs #16 St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (11-3, Region 10)

Division IV Championship
#8 Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (14-0, Region 16) by 14 (84%) vs #32 Chagrin Falls (14-0, Region 13)

Division V Championship
#17 Coldwater (13-1, Region 20) by 1 (52%) vs #19 Ursuline (Youngstown) (10-3, Region 17)

Division VI Championship
#15 St John’s (Delphos) (14-0, Region 22) by 10 (76%) vs #33 St Paul (Norwalk) (14-0, Region 21)

 
Last week’s predictions
Record: 10-2 (83.3%)
Within 7 points: 5 (41.7%)
Within 3 points: 2 (16.7%)
Winner and exact margin: 1 (8.3%)

Week #4-to-date predictions
Record: 2161-495 (82.0%)
Within 7 points: 978 (37.1%)
Within 3 points: 461 (17.5%)
Winner and exact margin: 66 (2.5%)

Season-to-date predictions
Record: 2946-726 (80.2%)
Within 7 points: 1310 (35.7%)
Within 3 points: 611 (16.6%)
Winner and exact margin: 81 (2.2%)

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