The Fantastic 50: Updated rankings and playoff favorites

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Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

Cincinnati Moeller is still in the top spot of the Fantastic 50, while St. Iganatius is No. 2. A lot of people think these two will meet in the D-I state final. As for the playoffs, we also have Drew Pasteur’s odds on who is going to win this weekend – and it’s not all the higher seeds.


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the Fantastic 50?
The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew Pasteur?
Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where he was a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has published a North Carolina
version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

Rankings and Predictions
Here are this week’s Fantastic 50 rankings. Want to debate? Do it in the JJ forums.

Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 
1) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-1, D1 R4) 155.3
2) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (10-0, D1 R1) 154.8
3) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (10-0, D3 R9) 154.0
4) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (8-2, D1 R4) 151.4
5) Steubenville (9-1, D3 R11) 151.4
6) Elder (Cincinnati) (7-2, D1 R4) 148.7
7) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (10-0, D4 R16) 148.3
8) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (9-1, D1 R1) 148.1
9) Solon (10-0, D1 R1) 147.9
10) Anderson (Cincinnati) (10-0, D1 R4) 147.6
11) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (10-0, D1 R3) 146.4
12) St John’S (Delphos) (10-0, D6 R22) 145.8
13) Louisville (10-0, D2 R7) 144.0
14) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (8-1, D1 R3) 143.1
15) Logan (10-0, D2 R7) 142.6
16) Lakota West (West Chester) (9-1, D1 R4) 142.3
17) Colerain (Cincinnati) (8-2, D1 R4) 142.2
18) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (9-1, D2 R5) 142.1
19) Mayfield (9-1, D1 R1) 142.1
20) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (8-2, D2 R8) 141.7
21) Centerville (8-2, D1 R4) 141.7
22) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (7-3, D3 R10) 141.4
23) Middletown (9-1, D1 R4) 141.1
24) Westerville South (Westerville) (8-2, D1 R3) 140.7
25) Dover (9-1, D3 R11) 140.5
26) Ursuline (Youngstown) (6-3, D5 R17) 140.1
27) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (7-3, D1 R2) 140.0
28) Coldwater (9-1, D5 R20) 139.4
29) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (9-1, D1 R3) 138.4
30) Wayne (Huber Heights) (7-3, D1 R4) 138.0
31) Mentor (6-4, D1 R1) 136.6
32) Northmont (Clayton) (6-4, D1 R4) 136.2
33) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (7-3, D3 R10) 136.1
34) Chagrin Falls (10-0, D4 R13) 134.9
35) Hoover (North Canton) (7-3, D1 R2) 134.7
36) Twinsburg (9-1, D1 R2) 134.5
37) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (10-0, D5 R18) 134.5
38) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (6-4, D1 R2) 134.1
39) Glenoak (Canton) (8-2, D1 R2) 133.8
40) Central Catholic (Toledo) (8-2, D2 R6) 133.7
41) Boardman (Youngstown) (7-3, D1 R1) 132.8
42) Turpin (Cincinnati) (10-0, D2 R8) 131.6
43) Genoa Area (Genoa) (10-0, D4 R14) 131.4
44) St Edward (Lakewood) (4-6, D1 R1) 131.2
45) Whitmer (Toledo) (9-1, D1 R2) 131.2
46) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (7-3, D1 R3) 131.2
47) Kenton (9-1, D4 R16) 131.0
48) Lancaster (6-4, D1 R3) 130.9
49) La Salle (Cincinnati) (5-5, D1 R4) 130.8
50) St Paul (Norwalk) (10-0, D6 R21) 130.7

 
Division I Rankings 
1) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-1) 155.3
2) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (10-0) 154.8
3) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (8-2) 151.4
4) Elder (Cincinnati) (7-2) 148.7
5) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (9-1) 148.1
6) Solon (10-0) 147.9
7) Anderson (Cincinnati) (10-0) 147.6
8) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (10-0) 146.4
9) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (8-1) 143.1
10) Lakota West (West Chester) (9-1) 142.3
11) Colerain (Cincinnati) (8-2) 142.2
12) Mayfield (9-1) 142.1
13) Centerville (8-2) 141.7
14) Middletown (9-1) 141.1
15) Westerville South (Westerville) (8-2) 140.7

Division II Rankings
1) Louisville (10-0) 144.0
2) Logan (10-0) 142.6
3) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (9-1) 142.1
4) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (8-2) 141.7
5) Central Catholic (Toledo) (8-2) 133.7
6) Turpin (Cincinnati) (10-0) 131.6
7) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (7-3) 130.5
8) West Geauga (Chesterland) (9-1) 129.7
9) Canfield (9-1) 128.6
10) New Philadelphia (9-1) 127.9
11) St Francis De Sales (Toledo) (9-1) 127.7
12) Aurora (8-2) 127.3
13) Ashland (9-1) 126.7
14) Tecumseh (New Carlisle) (9-1) 125.9
15) Howland (Warren) (9-1) 125.2

Division III Rankings
1) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (10-0) 154.0
2) Steubenville (9-1) 151.4
3) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (7-3) 141.4
4) Dover (9-1) 140.5
5) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (7-3) 136.1
6) Poland Seminary (Poland) (8-2) 128.9
7) Archbishop Hoban (Akron) (7-3) 128.6
8) Northwest (Canal Fulton) (7-3) 127.7
9) Hubbard (9-1) 126.9
10) Padua Franciscan (Parma) (7-3) 126.7
11) Granville (9-1) 126.3
12) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (6-4) 126.2
13) Marlington (Alliance) (8-2) 124.7
14) Shawnee (Lima) (7-3) 121.5
15) Minerva (7-3) 121.1

Division IV Rankings
1) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (10-0) 148.3
2) Chagrin Falls (10-0) 134.9
3) Genoa Area (Genoa) (10-0) 131.4
4) Kenton (9-1) 131.0
5) Ironton (8-2) 129.1
6) Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) (10-0) 127.6
7) Martins Ferry (8-2) 126.6
8) Girard (10-0) 125.8
9) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (10-0) 125.7
10) Orrville (7-3) 123.9
11) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (7-3$) 123.8
12) Coshocton (8-2) 122.0
13) Clear Fork (Bellville) (7-3) 121.1
14) Manchester (Akron) (9-1) 119.5
15) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (7-3) 119.4

Division V Rankings
1) Ursuline (Youngstown) (6-3) 140.1
2) Coldwater (9-1) 139.4
3) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (10-0) 134.5
4) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (10-0) 129.3
5) Anna (8-2) 128.5
6) St Henry (7-3) 125.3
7) West Jefferson (9-1) 124.2
8) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (8-2) 123.9
9) Tinora (Defiance) (9-1) 123.2
10) Bishop Ready (Columbus) (8-1) 123.0
11) Wheelersburg (8-2) 121.2
12) Fredericktown (10-0) 120.4
13) Badin (Hamilton) (7-3) 117.9
14) Liberty Union (Baltimore) (8-2) 117.7
15) North Union (Richwood) (10-0) 116.5

Division VI Rankings
1) St John’S (Delphos) (10-0) 145.8
2) St Paul (Norwalk) (10-0) 130.7
3) Ada (10-0) 130.0
4) Carey (9-1) 121.9
5) Leipsic (9-1) 121.0
6) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (5-5) 119.4
7) Wynford (Bucyrus) (10-0) 118.7
8) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (8-2) 117.8
9) Mc Donald (10-0) 115.7
10) St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) (9-1) 114.5
11) Mogadore (9-1) 114.4
12) John F Kennedy (Warren) (7-3) 113.4
13) Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (7-3) 112.6
14) Mc Comb (7-3) 111.5
15) Newark Catholic (Newark) (6-4) 110.1

Predictions for this week’s games 

Region 1 Playoffs
#2 St Ignatius (Cleveland) (10-0, D1 R1) by 23 (95%) vs #41 Boardman (Youngstown) (7-3, D1 R1)
#9 Solon (10-0, D1 R1) by 26 (97%) vs Euclid (6-4, D1 R1)
#19 Mayfield (9-1, D1 R1) by 25 (96%) vs Parma (7-3, D1 R1)
#8 Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (9-1, D1 R1) by 24 (95%) at North Royalton (9-1, D1 R1)

Region 2 Playoffs
#38 Canton McKinley (Canton) (6-4, D1 R2) by 1 (54%) at #45 Whitmer (Toledo) (9-1, D1 R2)
#36 Twinsburg (9-1, D1 R2) by 7 (69%) vs Brunswick (7-3, D1 R2)
#27 Massillon Washington (Massillon) (7-3, D1 R2) by 7 (69%) vs #35 Hoover (North Canton) (7-3, D1 R2)
#39 Glenoak (Canton) (8-2, D1 R2) by 8 (70%) vs Wadsworth (9-1, D1 R2)

Region 3 Playoffs
#11 Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (10-0, D1 R3) by 20 (92%) vs Springfield (6-4, D1 R3)
#14 Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (8-1, D1 R3) by 14 (84%) vs #48 Lancaster (6-4, D1 R3)
#29 Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (9-1, D1 R3) by 9 (73%) vs #46 Pickerington North (Pickerington) (7-3, D1 R3)
#24 Westerville South (Westerville) (8-2, D1 R3) by 16 (87%) vs Olentangy Liberty (Powell) (7-3, D1 R3)

Region 4 Playoffs
#4 St Xavier (Cincinnati) (8-2, D1 R4) by 11 (79%) vs #21 Centerville (8-2, D1 R4)
#1 Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-1, D1 R4) by 16 (87%) vs #23 Middletown (9-1, D1 R4)
#10 Anderson (Cincinnati) (10-0, D1 R4) by 7 (69%) vs #16 Lakota West (West Chester) (9-1, D1 R4)
#6 Elder (Cincinnati) (7-2, D1 R4) by 12 (81%) vs #30 Wayne (Huber Heights) (7-3, D1 R4)

Region 5 Playoffs
#18 Lake Catholic (Mentor) (9-1, D2 R5) by 25 (96%) vs Ravenna (8-2, D2 R5)
Howland (Warren) (9-1, D2 R5) by 8 (72%) vs Highland (Medina) (6-4, D2 R5)
West Geauga (Chesterland) (9-1, D2 R5) by 1 (54%) at Ashland (9-1, D2 R5)
Canfield (9-1, D2 R5) by 3 (58%) vs Aurora (8-2, D2 R5)

Region 6 Playoffs
St Francis De Sales (Toledo) (9-1, D2 R6) by 16 (87%) vs North Ridgeville (8-2, D2 R6)
#40 Central Catholic (Toledo) (8-2, D2 R6) by 28 (98%) vs Rocky River (7-3, D2 R6)
Maple Heights (8-2#, D2 R6) by 4 (60%) at Rogers (Toledo) (9-1, D2 R6)
Avon Lake (7-3, D2 R6) by 1 (53%) at Maumee (9-1, D2 R6)

Region 7 Playoffs
#13 Louisville (10-0, D2 R7) by 23 (95%) vs Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (8-2, D2 R7)
#15 Logan (10-0, D2 R7) by 22 (94%) vs Canal Winchester (8-2, D2 R7)
Brookhaven (Columbus) (8-2, D2 R7) by 9 (74%) vs Walnut Ridge (Columbus) (8-2, D2 R7)
Tri-Valley (Dresden) (9-1, D2 R7) by 2 (56%) at Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) (8-2, D2 R7)

Region 8 Playoffs
#42 Turpin (Cincinnati) (10-0, D2 R8) by 22 (94%) vs Wilmington (7-3, D2 R8)
#20 Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (8-2, D2 R8) by 33 (99%) vs Ross (Hamilton) (6-4, D2 R8)
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) (9-1, D2 R8) by 24 (96%) vs West Carrollton (8-2, D2 R8)
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (7-3, D2 R8) by 26 (97%) vs Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) (7-3, D2 R8)

Region 9 Playoffs
#3 Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (10-0, D3 R9) by 35 (99%) vs Field (Mogadore) (8-2, D3 R9)
Poland Seminary (Poland) (8-2, D3 R9) by 4 (62%) vs St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (6-4, D3 R9)
Archbishop Hoban (Akron) (7-3, D3 R9) by 3 (60%) vs Padua Franciscan (Parma) (7-3, D3 R9)
Hubbard (9-1, D3 R9) by 19 (91%) vs Buckeye (Medina) (8-2, D3 R9)

Region 10 Playoffs
#22 St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (7-3, D3 R10) by 25 (96%) vs Bryan (8-2, D3 R10)
#33 Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (7-3, D3 R10) by 23 (95%) vs Bellefontaine (8-2, D3 R10)
Napoleon (8-2, D3 R10) by 7 (69%) vs Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) (8-2, D3 R10)
Perkins (Sandusky) (9-1, D3 R10) by 1 (52%) vs Tippecanoe (Tipp City) (8-2, D3 R10)

Region 11 Playoffs
#5 Steubenville (9-1, D3 R11) by 26 (97%) vs Marlington (Alliance) (8-2, D3 R11)
#25 Dover (9-1, D3 R11) by 27 (97%) vs Harrison Central (Cadiz) (8-2, D3 R11)
Northwest (Canal Fulton) (7-3, D3 R11) by 5 (65%) at Buckeye Local (Rayland) (8-2, D3 R11)
Granville (9-1, D3 R11) by 13 (82%) vs Salem (8-2, D3 R11)

Region 12 Playoffs
Shawnee (Springfield) (7-3, D3 R12) by 3 (60%) at Goshen (8-2, D3 R12)
Wyoming (Cincinnati) (10-0, D3 R12) by 3 (59%) vs Eaton (8-2, D3 R12)
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) (8-2#, D3 R12) by 12 (80%) vs Monroe (8-2, D3 R12)
Logan Elm (Circleville) (8-2, D3 R12) by 12 (81%) vs New Richmond (9-1, D3 R12)

Region 13 Playoffs
#34 Chagrin Falls (10-0, D4 R13) by 27 (97%) vs Memorial (Campbell) (7-3, D4 R13)
Girard (10-0, D4 R13) by 24 (96%) vs Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) (7-3, D4 R13)
Martins Ferry (8-2, D4 R13) by 17 (89%) vs Woodridge (Peninsula) (8-2, D4 R13)
Manchester (Akron) (9-1, D4 R13) by 8 (72%) vs Lakeview (Cortland) (7-3, D4 R13)

Region 14 Playoffs
Galion (10-0, D4 R14) by 5 (64%) vs Eastwood (Pemberville) (8-2, D4 R14)
#43 Genoa Area (Genoa) (10-0, D4 R14) by 22 (94%) vs Edison (Milan) (8-2, D4 R14)
Orrville (7-3, D4 R14) by 4 (62%) vs Clear Fork (Bellville) (7-3, D4 R14)
Triway (Wooster) (8-2, D4 R14) by 1 (51%) vs Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (8-2, D4 R14)

Region 15 Playoffs
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) (10-0, D4 R15) by 29 (98%) vs Alexander (Albany) (8-2, D4 R15)
Ironton (8-2, D4 R15) by 22 (94%) vs Highland (Sparta) (8-2, D4 R15)
Heath (8-2, D4 R15) by 17 (89%) vs Zane Trace (Chillicothe) (8-2, D4 R15)
Coshocton (8-2, D4 R15) by 1 (54%) at West Muskingum (Zanesville) (9-1, D4 R15)

Region 16 Playoffs
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (10-0, D4 R16) by 14 (85%) vs Waynesville (8-2, D4 R16)
#7 Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (10-0, D4 R16) by 28 (98%) vs Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (7-3, D4 R16)
North College Hill (Cincinnati) (10-0, D4 R16) by 4 (61%) vs Carlisle (8-2, D4 R16)
#47 Kenton (9-1, D4 R16) by 17 (89%) vs Valley View (Germantown) (7-3, D4 R16)

Region 17 Playoffs
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (10-0, D5 R17) by 28 (98%) vs Waynedale (Apple Creek) (7-3, D5 R17)
Crestview (Columbiana) (9-1, D5 R17) by 10 (77%) vs East Palestine (7-3, D5 R17)
#26 Ursuline (Youngstown) (6-3, D5 R17) by 31 (99%) vs Trinity (Garfield Heights) (7-3, D5 R17)
Independence (9-1, D5 R17) by 3 (60%) vs Hawken (Gates Mills) (8-2, D5 R17)

Region 18 Playoffs
#37 Patrick Henry (Hamler) (10-0, D5 R18) by 31 (99%) vs Northwood (7-3, D5 R18)
Tinora (Defiance) (9-1, D5 R18) by 19 (92%) vs Fairview (Sherwood) (7-3, D5 R18)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (8-2, D5 R18) by 19 (91%) vs Hicksville (9-1, D5 R18)
Crestview (Ashland) (9-1, D5 R18) by 7 (69%) vs Hillsdale (Jeromesville) (8-2, D5 R18)

Region 19 Playoffs
Fredericktown (10-0, D5 R19) by 23 (95%) vs Caldwell (8-2, D5 R19)
Oak Hill (10-0, D5 R19) by 3 (58%) vs Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) (9-1, D5 R19)
Minford (8-2$, D5 R19) by 1 (50%) vs Ridgewood (West Lafayette) (10-0, D5 R19)
Wheelersburg (8-2, D5 R19) by 4 (61%) at Monroe Central (Woodsfield) (9-1, D5 R19)

Region 20 Playoffs
St Henry (7-3, D5 R20) by 7 (70%) at North Union (Richwood) (10-0, D5 R20)
#28 Coldwater (9-1, D5 R20) by 23 (95%) vs Badin (Hamilton) (7-3, D5 R20)
Anna (8-2, D5 R20) by 4 (61%) at Bishop Ready (Columbus) (8-1, D5 R20)
West Jefferson (9-1, D5 R20) by 15 (85%) at West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) (10-0, D5 R20)

Region 21 Playoffs
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (8-2, D6 R21) by 1 (52%) at Mc Donald (10-0, D6 R21)
#50 St Paul (Norwalk) (10-0, D6 R21) by 28 (98%) vs Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (9-1, D6 R21)
Mogadore (9-1, D6 R21) by 3 (57%) vs John F Kennedy (Warren) (7-3, D6 R21)
Wynford (Bucyrus) (10-0, D6 R21) by 11 (78%) vs Dalton (9-1, D6 R21)

Region 22 Playoffs
#12 St John’S (Delphos) (10-0, D6 R22) by 34 (99%) vs Arlington (7-3, D6 R22)
Ada (10-0, D6 R22) by 25 (96%) vs Cory-Rawson (Rawson) (7-3, D6 R22)
Carey (9-1, D6 R22) by 13 (83%) vs Columbus Grove (7-3, D6 R22)
Leipsic (9-1, D6 R22) by 8 (72%) vs St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) (9-1, D6 R22)

Region 23 Playoffs
Malvern (9-1, D6 R23) by 26 (97%) vs Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) (8-2, D6 R23)
Columbiana (8-2, D6 R23) by 13 (82%) vs Shadyside (5-5, D6 R23)
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) (8-2, D6 R23) by 1 (52%) vs Grove City Christian (Grove City) (9-1, D6 R23)
Bridgeport (9-1, D6 R23) by 13 (81%) vs Tuscarawas Central Catholic (New Philadelphia) (7-3, D6 R23)

Region 24 Playoffs
Ansonia (10-0, D6 R24) by 15 (86%) vs Covington (7-3, D6 R24)
Lockland (9-1, D6 R24) by 6 (66%) vs Fort Loramie (8-2, D6 R24)
Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) (9-1, D6 R24) by 1 (52%) vs Southeastern Local (South Charleston) (8-2, D6 R24)
Marion Local (Maria Stein) (5-5, D6 R24) by 5 (65%) at Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (7-3, D6 R24)

Last week’s predictions 
Record: 292-60 (82.9%)
Within 7 points: 138 (39.2%)
Within 3 points: 58 (16.5%)
Winner and exact margin: 5 (1.4%)

Week #4-to-date predictions
Record: 2025-231 (82.5%)
Within 7 points: 906 (36.9%)
Within 3 points: 432 (17.2%)
Winner and exact margin: 58 (2.4%)

Season-to-date predictions
Record: 2810-682 (80.5%)
Within 7 points: 1238 (35.5%)
Within 3 points: 573 (16.4%)
Winner and exact margin: 73 (2.1%)

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