The Fantastic 50 and State Semifinal Odds; Who is favored?

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Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

For the first time in a month, the No. 1 team in Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 remained the same. Now we’ll see if Glenville can move one step closer to the ultimate goal – a state title. According to Drew,
the Tarblooders are favored to win this week…here’s who else is as
well…


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the Fantastic 50?
The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew Pasteur?
Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where he was a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has published a North Carolina
version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

Rankings and Predictions
Here are this week’s Fantastic 50 rankings. Want to debate? Do it in the JJ forums.

Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 
1) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (12-1, D1 R1) 156.7
2) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (13-0, D3 R9) 155.7
3) Steubenville (12-1, D3 R11) 154.4
4) Elder (Cincinnati) (10-2, D1 R4) 154.2
5) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (11-1, D1 R1) 153.4
6) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (9-3, D1 R4) 152.2
7) Anderson (Cincinnati) (12-1, D1 R4) 151.6
8) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-2, D1 R4) 150.9
9) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (11-1, D1 R3) 150.2
10) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (13-0, D4 R16) 150.2
11) Solon (12-1, D1 R1) 147.1
12) St John’s (Delphos) (13-0, D6 R22) 146.9
13) Middletown (10-2, D1 R4) 146.6
14) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (12-1, D1 R3) 145.9
15) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (10-3, D3 R10) 145.6
16) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (11-2, D2 R8) 145.1
17) Colerain (Cincinnati) (8-2, D1 R4) 144.5
18) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (12-1, D2 R5) 143.4
19) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (10-3, D1 R2) 143.2
20) Lakota West (West Chester) (9-2, D1 R4) 142.6
21) Ursuline (Youngstown) (9-3, D5 R17) 142.6
22) Coldwater (12-1, D5 R20) 142.4
23) Westerville South (Westerville) (9-3, D1 R3) 141.8
24) Dover (11-2, D3 R11) 141.5
25) Mayfield (10-2, D1 R1) 141.4
26) Louisville (10-1, D2 R7) 139.8
27) Centerville (8-3, D1 R4) 139.7
28) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (8-5, D1 R2) 138.6
29) Mentor (6-4, D1 R1) 138.2
30) Wayne (Huber Heights) (7-4, D1 R4) 138.1
31) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (13-0, D5 R18) 137.6
32) Chagrin Falls (13-0, D4 R13) 137.3
33) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (10-2, D1 R3) 136.8
34) Northmont (Clayton) (6-4, D1 R4) 135.7
35) St Paul (Norwalk) (13-0, D6 R21) 135.7
36) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (9-4, D3 R10) 135.4
37) Twinsburg (10-2, D1 R2) 135.4
38) Logan (11-1, D2 R7) 135.4
39) Hoover (North Canton) (7-4, D1 R2) 134.2
40) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (11-2, D2 R7) 134.0
41) Poland Seminary (Poland) (10-3, D3 R9) 133.7
42) Glenoak (Canton) (9-3, D1 R2) 133.6
43) Boardman (Youngstown) (7-4, D1 R1) 133.4
44) Ada (12-1, D6 R22) 133.2
45) Canfield (10-2, D2 R5) 132.4
46) Ashland (11-2, D2 R5) 132.3
47) Maple Heights (11-2#, D2 R6) 132.3
48) Warren G Harding (Warren) (7-3-1, D1 R1) 132.3
49) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (9-4, D2 R8) 132.2
50) St Edward (Lakewood) (4-6, D1 R1) 132.0
 
OHSAA Division I Rankings 
1) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (12-1) 156.7
2) Elder (Cincinnati) (10-2) 154.2
3) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (11-1) 153.4
4) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (9-3) 152.2
5) Anderson (Cincinnati) (12-1) 151.6
6) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-2) 150.9
7) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (11-1) 150.2
8) Solon (12-1) 147.1
9) Middletown (10-2) 146.6
10) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (12-1) 145.9
11) Colerain (Cincinnati) (8-2) 144.5
12) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (10-3) 143.2
13) Lakota West (West Chester) (9-2) 142.6
14) Westerville South (Westerville) (9-3) 141.8
15) Mayfield (10-2) 141.4

OHSAA Division II Rankings
1) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (11-2) 145.1
2) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (12-1) 143.4
3) Louisville (10-1) 139.8
4) Logan (11-1) 135.4
5) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (11-2) 134.0
6) Canfield (10-2) 132.4
7) Ashland (11-2) 132.3
8) Maple Heights (11-2#) 132.3
9) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (9-4) 132.2
10) Brookhaven (Columbus) (10-3) 130.6
11) New Philadelphia (9-1) 130.2
12) Central Catholic (Toledo) (9-3) 128.2
13) Turpin (Cincinnati) (11-1) 127.3
14) Tecumseh (New Carlisle) (10-2) 127.1
15) Howland (Warren) (10-2) 126.5

OHSAA Division III Rankings
1) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (13-0) 155.7
2) Steubenville (12-1) 154.4
3) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (10-3) 145.6
4) Dover (11-2) 141.5
5) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (9-4) 135.4
6) Poland Seminary (Poland) (10-3) 133.7
7) Hubbard (10-2) 129.2
8) Archbishop Hoban (Akron) (8-4) 128.6
9) Northwest (Canal Fulton) (8-4) 128.3
10) Padua Franciscan (Parma) (7-4) 125.9
11) Marlington (Alliance) (8-3) 125.5
12) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (6-5) 124.9
13) Shawnee (Lima) (7-3) 124.4
14) Napoleon (9-3) 122.9
15) Wyoming (Cincinnati) (13-0) 121.5

OHSAA Division IV Rankings
1) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (13-0) 150.2
2) Chagrin Falls (13-0) 137.3
3) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (12-1) 131.7
4) Kenton (10-2) 131.4
5) Genoa Area (Genoa) (11-1) 129.0
6) Coshocton (11-2) 128.3
7) Orrville (9-4) 126.6
8) Ironton (10-3) 125.7
9) Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) (11-1) 124.7
10) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (11-2) 124.1
11) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (7-3$) 122.5
12) Woodridge (Peninsula) (10-3) 121.1
13) Girard (11-1) 121.0
14) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (7-4) 120.3
15) Clear Fork (Bellville) (7-4) 120.3

OHSAA Division V Rankings
1) Ursuline (Youngstown) (9-3) 142.6
2) Coldwater (12-1) 142.4
3) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (13-0) 137.6
4) Anna (9-3) 130.3
5) St Henry (9-4) 129.1
6) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (12-1) 128.1
7) Tinora (Defiance) (11-2) 127.6
8) Ridgewood (West Lafayette) (13-0) 124.6
9) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (9-3) 122.1
10) Bishop Ready (Columbus) (8-2) 121.0
11) Wheelersburg (9-3) 120.3
12) Fredericktown (12-1) 119.6
13) West Jefferson (9-2) 118.8
14) Versailles (6-4) 118.3
15) Badin (Hamilton) (7-4) 116.7

OHSAA Division VI Rankings
1) St John’s (Delphos) (13-0) 146.9
2) St Paul (Norwalk) (13-0) 135.7
3) Ada (12-1) 133.2
4) Wynford (Bucyrus) (12-1) 124.0
5) Leipsic (10-2) 123.6
6) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (8-5) 123.3
7) Carey (10-2) 121.9
8) Mogadore (10-2) 119.1
9) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (9-3) 116.9
10) Mc Donald (10-1) 113.3
11) Mc Comb (7-3) 112.3
12) St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) (9-2) 112.3
13) Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (7-4) 112.3
14) Malvern (11-2) 111.0
15) John F Kennedy (Warren) (7-4) 110.6

 
STATE CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

Division I
Glenville 1:1
Elder 7:3
Hilliard Davidson 6:1
Massillon Washington 23:1

Division II
Winton Woods 1:1
Lake Catholic 3:2
Marion-Franklin 14:1
Maple Heights 19:1

Division III
Cardinal Mooney 3:2
Steubenville 2:1
Columbus St. Francis De Sales 3:1
Wyoming 1,000:1

Division IV
Archbishop Alter 1:4
Chagrin Falls 5:1
Coshocton 50:1
Ottawa-Glandorf 110:1

Division V
Ursuline 1:1
Coldwater 2:1
Patrick Henry 6:1
Ridgewood 75:1

Division VI
Delphos St. John’s 1:3
Norwalk St. Paul 3:1
Marion Local 100:1
Grove City Christian 1,000:1

PREDICTIONS FOR THE STATE SEMIFINALS

Regional Finals: 18-6 (75%), higher seeds 13-11 (54%)

Division I Semifinals
#1 Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (12-1, Region 1) by 14 (83%) vs #19 Massillon Washington (10-3, Region 2)
#4 Elder (Cincinnati) (10-2, Region 4) by 4 (61%) vs #9 Hilliard Davidson (11-1, Region 3)

Division II Semifinals
#18 Lake Catholic (Mentor) (12-1, Region 5) by 11 (79%) vs #47 Maple Heights (11-2#, Region 6)
#16 Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (11-2, Region 8) by 11 (78%) vs #40 Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (11-2, Region 7)

Division III Semifinals
#2 Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (13-0, Region 9) by 1 (54%) vs #3 Steubenville (12-1, Region 11)
#15 St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (10-3, Region 10) by 24 (95%) vs Wyoming (Cincinnati) (13-0, Region 12)

Division IV Semifinals
#32 Chagrin Falls (13-0, Region 13) by 13 (83%) vs Ottawa-Glandorf (11-2, Region 14)
#10 Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (13-0, Region 16) by 22 (94%) vs Coshocton (11-2, Region 15)

Division V Semifinals
#21 Ursuline (Youngstown) (9-3, Region 17) by 18 (90%) vs Ridgewood (West Lafayette) (13-0, Region 19)
#22 Coldwater (12-1, Region 20) by 5 (63%) vs #31 Patrick Henry (Hamler) (13-0, Region 18)

Division VI Semifinals
#35 St Paul (Norwalk) (13-0, Region 21) by 25 (97%) vs Grove City Christian (12-1, Region 23)
#12 St John’s (Delphos) (13-0, Region 22) by 23 (95%) vs Marion Local (Maria Stein) (8-5, Region 24)

Last week’s predictions 
Record: 18-6 (75.0%), the higher seeds were just 13-11
Within 7 points: 10 (41.7%)
Within 3 points: 4 (16.7%)
Winner and exact margin: 2 (8.3%)

Week #4-to-date predictions
Record: 2151-493 (82.0%)
Within 7 points: 973 (37.0%)
Within 3 points: 459 (17.5%)
Winner and exact margin: 65 (2.5%)

Season-to-date predictions
Record: 2936-724 (80.2%)
Within 7 points: 1305 (35.7%)
Within 3 points: 609 (16.6%)
Winner and exact margin: 80 (2.2%)

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