The Fantastic 50: Updated rankings and playoff favorites

Image

Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

For the second week in a row the top team in Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 bit the dust. A week after Moeller fell, St. Ignatius did the same. Now who gets to carry the label of No. 1? Glenville. According to Drew, the Tarblooders are favored to win this week…here’s who else is as well…


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the Fantastic 50?
The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew Pasteur?
Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where he was a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has published a North Carolina
version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

Rankings and Predictions
Here are this week’s Fantastic 50 rankings. Want to debate? Do it in the JJ forums.

Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 
1) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (11-1, D1 R1) 158.0
2) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (12-0, D3 R9) 154.6
3) Anderson (Cincinnati) (12-0, D1 R4) 154.2
4) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (11-1, D1 R1) 153.3
5) Elder (Cincinnati) (9-2, D1 R4) 151.3
6) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (9-3, D1 R4) 151.1
7) Steubenville (11-1, D3 R11) 150.5
8) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-2, D1 R4) 150.1
9) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (12-0, D1 R3) 149.5
10) St John’S (Delphos) (12-0, D6 R22) 148.2
11) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (10-1, D1 R3) 147.6
12) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (12-0, D4 R16) 147.5
13) Middletown (10-2, D1 R4) 147.1
14) Solon (12-0, D1 R1) 146.0
15) Colerain (Cincinnati) (8-2, D1 R4) 144.1
16) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (10-2, D2 R8) 143.7
17) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (9-3, D3 R10) 143.5
18) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (11-1, D2 R5) 143.2
19) Lakota West (West Chester) (9-2, D1 R4) 143.1
20) Dover (11-1, D3 R11) 142.8
21) Coldwater (11-1, D5 R20) 142.4
22) Westerville South (Westerville) (9-3, D1 R3) 142.4
23) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (9-3, D1 R2) 142.0
24) Mayfield (10-2, D1 R1) 140.8
25) Ursuline (Youngstown) (8-3, D5 R17) 140.4
26) Centerville (8-3, D1 R4) 139.6
27) Louisville (10-1, D2 R7) 139.3
28) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (8-4, D1 R2) 139.0
29) Wayne (Huber Heights) (7-4, D1 R4) 138.2
30) Mentor (6-4, D1 R1) 137.4
31) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (9-3, D3 R10) 136.6
32) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (10-2, D1 R3) 136.5
33) Logan (11-1, D2 R7) 136.2
34) Northmont (Clayton) (6-4, D1 R4) 135.9
35) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (12-0, D5 R18) 135.8
36) Chagrin Falls (12-0, D4 R13) 135.6
37) Twinsburg (10-2, D1 R2) 135.0
38) St Paul (Norwalk) (12-0, D6 R21) 134.2
39) Hoover (North Canton) (7-4, D1 R2) 134.1
40) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (9-3, D2 R8) 133.7
41) Poland Seminary (Poland) (10-2, D3 R9) 133.7
42) Glenoak (Canton) (9-3, D1 R2) 133.6
43) Boardman (Youngstown) (7-4, D1 R1) 133.4
44) Brookhaven (Columbus) (10-2, D2 R7) 132.9
45) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (12-0, D4 R16) 132.9
46) Canfield (10-2, D2 R5) 132.4
47) Ashland (11-1, D2 R5) 132.4
48) Ada (12-0, D6 R22) 131.8
49) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (10-2, D2 R7) 131.7
50) Warren G Harding (Warren) (7-3-1, D1 R1) 131.7

 Division I Rankings 
1) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (11-1) 158.0
2) Anderson (Cincinnati) (12-0) 154.2
3) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (11-1) 153.3
4) Elder (Cincinnati) (9-2) 151.3
5) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (9-3) 151.1
6) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-2) 150.1
7) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (12-0) 149.5
8) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (10-1) 147.6
9) Middletown (10-2) 147.1
10) Solon (12-0) 146.0
11) Colerain (Cincinnati) (8-2) 144.1
12) Lakota West (West Chester) (9-2) 143.1
13) Westerville South (Westerville) (9-3) 142.4
14) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (9-3) 142.0
15) Mayfield (10-2) 140.8

Division II Rankings
1) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (10-2) 143.7
2) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (11-1) 143.2
3) Louisville (10-1) 139.3
4) Logan (11-1) 136.2
5) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (9-3) 133.7
6) Brookhaven (Columbus) (10-2) 132.9
7) Canfield (10-2) 132.4
8) Ashland (11-1) 132.4
9) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (10-2) 131.7
10) Maple Heights (10-2#) 130.0
11) New Philadelphia (9-1) 129.8
12) Central Catholic (Toledo) (9-3) 128.1
13) Turpin (Cincinnati) (11-1) 127.7
14) St Francis De Sales (Toledo) (11-1) 127.6
15) Tecumseh (New Carlisle) (10-2) 127.2

Division III Rankings
1) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (12-0) 154.6
2) Steubenville (11-1) 150.5
3) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (9-3) 143.5
4) Dover (11-1) 142.8
5) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (9-3) 136.6
6) Poland Seminary (Poland) (10-2) 133.7
7) Hubbard (10-2) 129.1
8) Northwest (Canal Fulton) (8-4) 128.4
9) Archbishop Hoban (Akron) (8-4) 128.4
10) Padua Franciscan (Parma) (7-4) 125.8
11) Marlington (Alliance) (8-3) 125.1
12) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (6-5) 124.8
13) Shawnee (Lima) (7-3) 123.8
14) Napoleon (9-3) 123.0
15) Granville (9-2) 121.4

Division IV Rankings
1) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (12-0) 147.5
2) Chagrin Falls (12-0) 135.6
3) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (12-0) 132.9
4) Kenton (10-2) 131.2
5) Genoa Area (Genoa) (11-1) 129.3
6) Ironton (10-2) 128.5
7) Orrville (9-3) 127.8
8) Coshocton (10-2) 126.2
9) Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) (11-1) 124.3
10) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (10-2) 122.6
11) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (7-3$) 122.5
12) Woodridge (Peninsula) (10-2) 122.2
13) Girard (11-1) 121.3
14) Clear Fork (Bellville) (7-4) 120.7
15) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (7-4) 120.5

Division V Rankings
1) Coldwater (11-1) 142.4
2) Ursuline (Youngstown) (8-3) 140.4
3) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (12-0) 135.8
4) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (12-0) 130.8
5) Anna (9-3) 130.2
6) St Henry (9-3) 129.2
7) Tinora (Defiance) (11-1) 129.1
8) Ridgewood (West Lafayette) (12-0) 123.2
9) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (9-3) 122.3
10) Fredericktown (12-0) 122.1
11) Bishop Ready (Columbus) (8-2) 121.1
12) Wheelersburg (9-3) 121.0
13) West Jefferson (9-2) 118.9
14) Versailles (6-4) 118.3
15) Badin (Hamilton) (7-4) 116.6

Division VI Rankings
1) St John’S (Delphos) (12-0) 148.2
2) St Paul (Norwalk) (12-0) 134.2
3) Ada (12-0) 131.8
4) Wynford (Bucyrus) (12-0) 125.1
5) Leipsic (10-2) 123.5
6) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (7-5) 122.4
7) Carey (10-2) 121.7
8) Mogadore (10-2) 119.3
9) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (9-3) 117.0
10) Malvern (11-1) 115.4
11) Mc Donald (10-1) 113.4
12) Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (7-4) 112.3
13) St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) (9-2) 112.3
14) Mc Comb (7-3) 112.2
15) John F Kennedy (Warren) (7-4) 110.6

 
Predictions for this week’s games
(Lower-seeded teams predicted to win are shown in bold.)

Second Round: 33-15 (69%), compared to 31-17 (65%) for the higher seeds

Region 1 Championship
#1 Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (11-1) by 12 (80%) vs #14 Solon (12-0)

Region 2 Championship
#23 Massillon Washington (9-3) by 3 (58%) vs #28 Canton Mc Kinley (8-4)

Region 3 Championship
#9 Dublin Coffman (12-0) by 2 (55%) vs #11 Hilliard Davidson (10-1)

Region 4 Championship
#3 Anderson (Cincinnati) (12-0) by 3 (58%) vs #5 Elder (Cincinnati) (9-2)

Region 5 Championship
#18 Lake Catholic (Mentor) (11-1) by 11 (78%) vs #47 Ashland (11-1)

Region 6 Championship
Maple Heights (10-2#) by 2 (57%) vs St Francis De Sales (Toledo) (11-1)

Region 7 Championship
#44 Brookhaven (Columbus) (10-2,) by 1 (53%) vs #49 Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (10-2)

Region 8 Championship
#16 Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (10-2) by 10 (76%) vs #40 Trotwood-Madison (9-3)

Region 9 Championship
#2 Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (12-0) by 21 (93%) vs #41 Poland Seminary (10-2)

Region 10 Championship
#17 St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (9-3) by 7 (69%) vs #31 Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (9-3)

Region 11 Championship
#7 Steubenville (11-1) by 8 (71%) vs #20 Dover (11-1)

Region 12 Championship
Wyoming (Cincinnati) (12-0) by 6 (67%) vs Shawnee (Springfield) (9-3)

Region 13 Championship
#36 Chagrin Falls (12-0) by 13 (83%) vs Woodridge (Peninsula) (10-2)

Region 14 Championship
Orrville (9-3) by 5 (64%) vs Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (10-2)

Region 15 Championship
Ironton (10-2) by 2 (57%) vs Coshocton (10-2)

Region 16 Championship
#12 Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (12-0) by 15 (85%) vs #45 Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (12-0)

Region 17 Championship
#25 Ursuline (Youngstown) (8-3) by 10 (75%) vs Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (12-0)

Region 18 Championship
#35 Patrick Henry (Hamler) (12-0) by 7 (68%) at Tinora (Defiance) (11-1)

Region 19 Championship
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) (12-0) by 1 (53%) vs Fredericktown (12-0)

Region 20 Championship
#21 Coldwater (11-1) by 13 (83%) vs St Henry (9-3)

Region 21 Championship
#38 St Paul (Norwalk) (12-0) by 9 (74%) vs Wynford (Bucyrus) (12-0)

Region 22 Championship
#10 St John’s (Delphos) (12-0) by 16 (88%) vs #48 Ada (12-0)

Region 23 Championship
Malvern (11-1) by 14 (83%) vs Grove City Christian (11-1)

Region 24 Championship
Marion Local (Maria Stein) (7-5) by 15 (86%) vs Fort Loramie (10-2)

 
Last week’s predictions 
Record: 33-15 (68.8%) – worst week of the season
Within 7 points: 33 (47.9%) – best week of the season
Within 3 points: 12 (25.0%) – best week of the season
Winner and exact margin: 1 (2.1%)

Week #4-to-date predictions
Record: 2133-487 (82.0%)
Within 7 points: 963 (37.0%)
Within 3 points: 455 (17.5%)
Winner and exact margin: 63 (2.4%)

Season-to-date predictions
Record: 2918-718 (80.3%)
Within 7 points: 1295 (35.6%)
Within 3 points: 605 (16.6%)
Winner and exact margin: 78 (2.1%)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *