The Fantastic 50: Updated rankings and playoff favorites

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Drew Pasteur’s Fantastic 50 rankings and predictions

Now that last week’s No. 1 Cincinnati Moeller is out of the playoffs, are they also out of the top spot? Yep…who is in? And who wins this week?


We know how much Ohio high school football
fans love numbers, so here’s another set for fanatics to look at.
Thanks to Drew Pasteur, a professor of math at the College of Wooster,
we’re proud to offer Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 again this fall. In
addition to ranking every team in the state, the Fantastic 50 also
offers predictions for this weekend’s game. There’s also divisional rankings. Enjoy. We know you will.

What is the Fantastic 50?
The
Ohio Fantanstic 50 is a computer ranking of the state’s top 50 teams,
regardless of division. It is based completely on scores and schedules,
so there is no bias for or against any part of the state. Margin of
victory (or defeat) is used in the rankings, up to a maximum of a
21-point margin. Strength-of-schedule does play a significant part, but
a team is not heavily penalized for games against weaker teams,
provided that they win comfortably.

Under this system,
an average team has a power rating of 100, and the difference between
two teams’ ratings (not rankings) would be a predicted margin of
victory for the higher-rated team on a neutral
field, as long as this difference isn’t too large. These rankings are
not intended to be “fair” in determining teams to qualify for the
playoffs, but rather are meant to predict the outcome of future games.
Any contests against non-OHSAA opponents are not included in either the power rating or strength-of-schedule computations.

Who is Drew Pasteur?
Drew Pasteur is a native of North Carolina, where he was a high school
teacher and athletic trainer for several years. After earning a PhD in
applied math from N.C. State University, he took a job as a
math professor at the College of Wooster last year. He has published a North Carolina
version of the Fantastic 50 rankings for the last nine years and has
recently made a push in that stae to change the way it selects
postseason participants.

Rankings and Predictions
Here are this week’s Fantastic 50 rankings. Want to debate? Do it in the JJ forums.

Drew Pasteur’s Ohio Fantastic 50 
11) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (11-0, D1 R1) 156.0
2) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (11-0, D3 R9) 153.8
3) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (9-2, D1 R4) 152.9
4) Middletown (10-1, D1 R4) 151.7
5) Steubenville (10-1, D3 R11) 150.7
6) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-2, D1 R4) 150.6
7) Elder (Cincinnati) (8-2, D1 R4) 149.7
8) Anderson (Cincinnati) (11-0, D1 R4) 148.5
9) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (10-1, D1 R1) 148.5
10) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (11-0, D1 R3) 148.2
11) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (11-0, D4 R16) 147.6
12) St John’s (Delphos) (11-0, D6 R22) 147.3
13) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (9-1, D1 R3) 145.5
14) Solon (11-0, D1 R1) 145.1
15) Colerain (Cincinnati) (8-2, D1 R4) 144.9
16) Logan (11-0, D2 R7) 143.6
17) Westerville South (Westerville) (9-2, D1 R3) 142.3
18) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (8-3, D3 R10) 142.1
19) Lakota West (West Chester) (9-2, D1 R4) 142.1
20) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (10-1, D2 R5) 142.1
21) Dover (10-1, D3 R11) 142.0
22) Coldwater (10-1, D5 R20) 141.9
23) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (8-3, D1 R2) 141.9
24) Mayfield (10-1, D1 R1) 141.6
25) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (9-2, D2 R8) 141.3
26) Ursuline (Youngstown) (7-3, D5 R17) 139.7
27) Centerville (8-3, D1 R4) 139.4
28) Louisville (10-1, D2 R7) 138.8
29) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (10-1, D1 R3) 138.4
30) Mentor (6-4, D1 R1) 137.0
31) Wayne (Huber Heights) (7-4, D1 R4) 136.7
32) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (8-3, D3 R10) 136.7
33) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (7-4, D1 R2) 136.6
34) Glenoak (Canton) (9-2, D1 R2) 136.1
35) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (11-0, D5 R18) 136.0
36) Northmont (Clayton) (6-4, D1 R4) 135.5
37) Twinsburg (10-1, D1 R2) 135.5
38) Kenton (10-1, D4 R16) 134.3
39) Genoa Area (Genoa) (11-0, D4 R14) 134.1
40) Hoover (North Canton) (7-4, D1 R2) 134.1
41) Chagrin Falls (11-0, D4 R13) 133.8
42) Poland Seminary (Poland) (9-2, D3 R9) 133.7
43) Boardman (Youngstown) (7-4, D1 R1) 133.6
44) Canfield (10-1, D2 R5) 133.3
45) Central Catholic (Toledo) (9-2, D2 R6) 132.7
46) Turpin (Cincinnati) (11-0, D2 R8) 132.0
47) Warren G Harding (Warren) (7-3-1, D1 R1) 131.7
48) St Edward (Lakewood) (4-6, D1 R1) 131.5
49) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (7-4, D1 R3) 131.3
50) Ada (11-0, D6 R22) 131.0

OHSAA Division I Rankings 
1) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (11-0) 156.0
2) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (9-2) 152.9
3) Middletown (10-1) 151.7
4) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-2) 150.6
5) Elder (Cincinnati) (8-2) 149.7
6) Anderson (Cincinnati) (11-0) 148.5
7) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (10-1) 148.5
8) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (11-0) 148.2
9) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (9-1) 145.5
10) Solon (11-0) 145.1
11) Colerain (Cincinnati) (8-2) 144.9
12) Westerville South (Westerville) (9-2) 142.3
13) Lakota West (West Chester) (9-2) 142.1
14) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (8-3) 141.9
15) Mayfield (10-1) 141.6

OHSAA Division II Rankings
1) Logan (11-0) 143.6
2) Lake Catholic (Mentor) (10-1) 142.1
3) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (9-2) 141.3
4) Louisville (10-1) 138.8
5) Canfield (10-1) 133.3
6) Central Catholic (Toledo) (9-2) 132.7
7) Turpin (Cincinnati) (11-0) 132.0
8) Ashland (10-1) 130.7
9) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (8-3) 130.3
10) New Philadelphia (9-1) 128.9
11) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (9-2) 128.1
12) Tecumseh (New Carlisle) (10-1) 128.1
13) Howland (Warren) (10-1) 128.1
14) St Francis De Sales (Toledo) (10-1) 127.5
15) Maple Heights (9-2#) 126.2

OHSAA Division III Rankings
1) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (11-0) 153.8
2) Steubenville (10-1) 150.7
3) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (8-3) 142.1
4) Dover (10-1) 142.0
5) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (8-3) 136.7
6) Poland Seminary (Poland) (9-2) 133.7
7) Hubbard (10-1) 130.1
8) Archbishop Hoban (Akron) (8-3) 128.8
9) Northwest (Canal Fulton) (8-3) 128.3
10) Padua Franciscan (Parma) (7-4) 125.8
11) Marlington (Alliance) (8-3) 125.1
12) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (6-5) 124.6
13) Shawnee (Lima) (7-3) 123.9
14) Napoleon (9-2) 122.1
15) Granville (9-2) 121.8

OHSAA Division IV Rankings
1) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (11-0) 147.6
2) Kenton (10-1) 134.3
3) Genoa Area (Genoa) (11-0) 134.1
4) Chagrin Falls (11-0) 133.8
5) Ironton (9-2) 130.2
6) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (11-0) 128.0
7) Girard (11-0) 127.3
8) Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) (11-0) 127.2
9) Orrville (8-3) 126.3
10) Coshocton (9-2) 124.4
11) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (7-3$) 122.6
12) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (9-2) 120.3
13) Clear Fork (Bellville) (7-4) 120.1
14) Jonathan Alder (Plain City) (7-4) 119.8
15) Eastwood (Pemberville) (9-2) 118.7

OHSAA Division V Rankings
1) Coldwater (10-1) 141.9
2) Ursuline (Youngstown) (7-3) 139.7
3) Patrick Henry (Hamler) (11-0) 136.0
4) Anna (9-2) 130.6
5) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (11-0) 129.4
6) St Henry (8-3) 128.3
7) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (9-2) 124.8
8) Tinora (Defiance) (10-1) 124.5
9) Wheelersburg (9-2) 122.5
10) Bishop Ready (Columbus) (8-2) 121.9
11) Ridgewood (West Lafayette) (11-0) 121.0
12) Fredericktown (11-0) 120.6
13) West Jefferson (9-2) 119.7
14) Versailles (6-4) 118.2
15) Badin (Hamilton) (7-4) 116.7

OHSAA Division VI Rankings
1) St John’s (Delphos) (11-0) 147.3
2) Ada (11-0) 131.0
3) St Paul (Norwalk) (11-0) 129.5
4) Leipsic (10-1) 124.2
5) Carey (10-1) 123.4
6) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (6-5) 123.3
7) Wynford (Bucyrus) (11-0) 121.8
8) Mogadore (10-1) 119.6
9) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (9-2) 119.1
10) Bridgeport (10-1) 114.9
11) Mc Donald (10-1) 113.9
12) St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) (9-2) 113.1
13) Mc Comb (7-3) 112.6
14) Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (7-4) 111.8
15) John F Kennedy (Warren) (7-4) 111.5

Predictions for this week’s games 
(Lower-seeded teams predicted to win are shown in bold.)

Region 1 Playoffs
#1 St Ignatius (Cleveland) (11-0) by 8 (70%) vs #9 Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (10-1)
#14 Solon (11-0) by 4 (60%) vs #24 Mayfield (10-1)

Region 2 Playoffs
#33 Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (7-4) by 1 (51%) vs #34 Glenoak (Canton) (9-2)
#23 Massillon Washington (Massillon) (8-3) by 6 (68%) vs #37 Twinsburg (10-1)

Region 3 Playoffs
#10 Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (11-0) by 6 (66%) vs #17 Westerville South (Westerville) (9-2)
#13 Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (9-1) by 7 (69%) vs #29 Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (10-1)

Region 4 Playoffs
#3 St Xavier (Cincinnati) (9-2) by 3 (59%) vs #7 Elder (Cincinnati) (8-2)
#4 Middletown (10-1) by 3 (59%) vs #8 Anderson (Cincinnati) (11-0)

Region 5 Playoffs
#20 Lake Catholic (Mentor) (10-1) by 9 (74%) vs #44 Canfield (10-1)
Ashland (10-1) by 3 (57%) vs Howland (Warren) (10-1)

Region 6 Playoffs
St Francis De Sales (Toledo) (10-1) by 3 (57%) vs Avon Lake (8-3)
#45 Central Catholic (Toledo) (9-2) by 6 (68%) vs Maple Heights (9-2#)

Region 7 Playoffs
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (9-2) by 6 (66%) vs Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) (9-2)
#16 Logan (11-0) by 18 (90%) vs Brookhaven (Columbus) (9-2)

Region 8 Playoffs
#46 Turpin (Cincinnati) (11-0) by 2 (55%) vs Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (8-3)
#25 Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (9-2) by 13 (83%) vs Tecumseh (New Carlisle) (10-1)

Region 9 Playoffs
#2 Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (11-0) by 23 (95%) vs Hubbard (10-1)
#42 Poland Seminary (Poland) (9-2) by 5 (64%) vs Archbishop Hoban (Akron) (8-3)

Region 10 Playoffs
#18 St Francis De Sales (Columbus) (8-3) by 21 (94%) vs Tippecanoe (Tipp City) (9-2)
#32 Bishop Watterson (Columbus) (8-3) by 15 (85%) vs Napoleon (9-2)

Region 11 Playoffs
#5 Steubenville (10-1) by 28 (98%) vs Salem (9-2)
#21 Dover (10-1) by 14 (84%) vs Northwest (Canal Fulton) (8-3)

Region 12 Playoffs
Logan Elm (Circleville) (9-2) by 3 (57%) vs Shawnee (Springfield) (8-3)
Wyoming (Cincinnati) (11-0) by 3 (59%) vs Monroe (9-2)

Region 13 Playoffs
#41 Chagrin Falls (11-0) by 16 (87%) vs Lakeview (Cortland) (8-3)
Girard (11-0) by 9 (74%) vs Woodridge (Peninsula) (9-2)

Region 14 Playoffs
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) (9-2) by 2 (55%) vs Eastwood (Pemberville) (9-2)
#39 Genoa Area (Genoa) (11-0) by 8 (71%) vs Orrville (8-3)

Region 15 Playoffs
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) (11-0) by 3 (58%) vs Coshocton (9-2)
Ironton (9-2) by 14 (84%) vs Heath (9-2)

Region 16 Playoffs
#38 Kenton (10-1) by 6 (67%) vs Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (11-0)
#11 Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (11-0) by 29 (98%) vs Carlisle (9-2)

Region 17 Playoffs
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (11-0) by 17 (88%) vs Hawken (Gates Mills) (9-2)
#26 Ursuline (Youngstown) (7-3) by 24 (96%) vs Crestview (Columbiana) (10-1)

Region 18 Playoffs
#35 Patrick Henry (Hamler) (11-0) by 25 (96%) vs Hillsdale (Jeromesville) (9-2)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (9-2) by 1 (51%) vs Tinora (Defiance) (10-1)

Region 19 Playoffs
Wheelersburg (9-2) by 2 (55%) vs Fredericktown (11-0)
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) (11-0) by 5 (64%) vs Oak Hill (11-0)

Region 20 Playoffs
St Henry (8-3) by 15 (86%) vs West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) (11-0)
#22 Coldwater (10-1) by 11 (79%) vs Anna (9-2)

Region 21 Playoffs
Wynford (Bucyrus) (11-0) by 3 (58%) vs Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) (9-2)
St Paul (Norwalk) (11-0) by 10 (76%) vs Mogadore (10-1)

Region 22 Playoffs
#12 St John’s (Delphos) (11-0) by 23 (95%) vs Leipsic (10-1)
#50 Ada (11-0) by 8 (71%) vs Carey (10-1)

Region 23 Playoffs
Bridgeport (10-1) by 4 (60%) vs Malvern (10-1)
Shadyside (6-5) by 4 (62%) vs Grove City Christian (Grove City) (10-1)

Region 24 Playoffs
Marion Local (Maria Stein) (6-5) by 23 (95%) vs Covington (8-3)
Fort Loramie (9-2) by 2 (56%) vs Southeastern Local (South Charleston) (9-2)

Last week’s predictions 
Record: 75-21 (78.1%)
Within 7 points: 34 (35.4%)
Within 3 points: 20 (20.8%)
Winner and exact margin: 4 (4.2%)

Week #4-to-date predictions
Record: 2100-452 (82.3%)
Within 7 points: 940 (36.8%)
Within 3 points: 443 (17.4%)
Winner and exact margin: 62 (2.4%)

Season-to-date predictions
Record: 2885-703 (80.4%)
Within 7 points: 1272 (35.5%)
Within 3 points: 593 (16.5%)
Winner and exact margin: 77 (2.1%)

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