Pasteur takes a peak at the playoff odds; what he sees

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Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

The observations below are based on the outcome of 25,000 simulations
of the final week of the regular season, computing the Harbin points
(and playoff seeds) each time.


The observations below are based on the outcome of 25,000 simulations of the final week of the regular season, computing the Harbin points (and playoff seeds) each time.

Region 1

Clenched Home Game
St. Ignatius – also clenched #1 seed
Solon – very likely #2 seed
Mayfield – very likely #3 seed

Clenched playoff berth
North Royalton – almost certain home game/#4 seed with a win
Glenville – should get home game/#4 seed with a win and a North Royalton loss

Controls own destiny
Parma
Euclid

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Boardman
Shaw (plays Euclid)

In contention, but needs help
Willoughby South
Warren Harding
St. Edward

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Mentor

Region 2

Clenched home game
Toledo Whitmer – very close to clenching #1 seed
Massillon Washington – likely #2 seed

Clenched playoff berth, control own destiny for home game
Twinsburg – likely #3 seed

Clenched playoff berth
Wadsworth – contending for a home game
North Canton Hoover

Controls own destiny
Canton GlenOak – contending for a home game
Perrysburg

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Steele

In contention, but needs help
Brunswick
Hudson
St. John’s Jesuit
Canton McKinley

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Sylvania Southview
Elyria
Findlay

Region 3

Clenched home game
Dublin Coffman – likely #1 seed
Hillard Davidson – likely #2 seed

Clenched playoff berth
Pickerington Central – also clenches home game with a win

Controls own destiny, and can clench home game with a win
Westerville South (plays Olentangy Liberty)
Olentangy Liberty (plays Westerville South)

Controls own destiny
Springfield
Upper Arlington (plays Dublin Coffman)

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Groveport-Madison
Delaware Hayes

In contention, but needs help
Lancaster
Troy
Pickerington North

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Worthington Kilbourne
Northland
Thomas Worthington

Region 4

Clenched home game
Archbishop Moeller – likely #1 seed
St. Xavier – likely #2 seed

Clenched playoff berth
Anderson – likely #3 seed, clinches home game with a win
Elder – likely #4 seed, almost certain to get a home game with a win

Controls own destiny
Lakota West – likely #5 seed, with a win
Huber Heights Wayne – likely #5 or #6 seed, with a win

In contention, but needs help
Centerville
Colerain
Middletown
Clayton Northmont

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Lebanon
Withrow

Region 5

Clenched playoff berth
Lake Catholic – likely #1 seed, can clench home game with a win
Medina Highland – likely #2 seed with a win
West Geauga

Controls own destiny
Ashland – almost certain to get a home game with a win
Warren Howland
Aurora
Canfield

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Ravenna
Walsh Jesuit

In contention, but needs help
Lodi Cloverleaf
Geneva

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Copley
Revere
Kent Roosevelt

Region 6

Clenched home game
Toledo St. Francis de Sales – has almost clenched #1 seed

Clenched playoff berth
Toledo Rogers – likely home game with a win

Controls own destiny
Central Catholic – clenches home game (and likely #2 seed) with a win
Rocky River – almost certainly at home with a win
Maple Heights
Maumee

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Olmsted Falls
Avon Lake

In contention, but needs help
North Ridgeville
Lexington
Normandy
Midview

Region 7

Clenched home game
Louisville – likely #1 seed
Logan – likely #2 seed

Clenched playoff berth
Brookhaven – clenches home game and #3 seed with a win
Tri-Valley

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Marion-Franklin
Columbus St. Charles
Olentangy Orange
New Philadelphia

In contention, but needs help
Canal Winchester
Walnut Ridge
New Albany
Big Walnut

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Vincent Warren
Zanesville

Region 8

Clenched home game
Turpin – likely #1 seed
Winton Woods
Tecumseh

Clenched playoff berth
Trotwood-Madison – almost certain home game, likely #4 seed

Controls own destiny
West Carrollton
Wilmington (plays Turpin)
Mount Healthy

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Hamilton Ross
Harrison (plays undefeated Cincinnati Anderson, of Region 4)

In contention, but needs help
Dayton Carroll

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Greenville

Region 9

Clenched home game
Cardinal Mooney – clenched #1 seed
Poland – clenched #2 seed

Clenched playoff berth
Akron SVSM – almost certain to get a home game/#3 seed with a win (plays R17 Ursuline)

Controls own destiny
Hubbard
Medina Buckeye
Archbishop Hoban

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Padua Franciscan

In contention, but needs help
Bay
Mogadore Field

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Akron Buchtel

Region 10

Clenched playoff berth
Napolean – clenches home game with a win
Bishop Watterson – clenches home game with a win
Columbus St Francis de Sales – almost certainly at home with a win
Tippecanoe
Sandsuky Perkins

Controls own destiny
Eastmoor Academy
Bellefontaine

In contention, but needs help
Bryan
St. Paris Graham

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Buckeye Valley
Shawnee
Clyde
Bellevue

Region 11

Clenched home game
Steubenville – almost clenched #1 seed
Dover – likely #2 seed
Buckeye Local

Clenched playoff berth
Granville – clenches home game with a win
Canal Fulton Northwest

Controls own destiny
Salem
Minerva (plays undefeated Louisville of Region 7)

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Marlington
Harrison Central

In contention, but needs help
Indian Creek
Thornville Sheridan

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Carrollton

Region 12

Clenched home game
Chaminade-Julienne

Clenched playoff berth
Logan Elm
Cincinnati Wyoming

Controls own destiny
Goshen
Washington

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Monroe
Eaton
New Richmond
Jackson (plays 8-1 Zanesville of Region 7)

In contention, but needs help
Springfield Shawnee
Archbishop McNicholas
Franklin

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Indian Hill
Hillsboro

Region 13

Clenched home game
Chagrin Falls – almost clenched #1 seed
Girard – likely #2 seed
Martins Ferry

Clenched playoff berth
Akron Manchester – can clinch a home game with a win
Cortland Lakeview – likely #5 seed
Peninsula Woodridge

Controls own destiny
CVCA
Perry (plays undefeated Chagrin Falls)

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
St Clairsville (plays 7-2 Harrison Central of Region 11)

In contention, but needs help
Belmont Union Local
Campbell Memorial
Cleveland Central Catholic

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Youngstown Liberty
Garrettsville Garfield
Sandy Valley
Fairview

Region 14

Clenched home game
Galion – likely #1 seed with a win
Wooster Triway
Genoa Area

Clenched playoff berth
Orrville – can clench home game with a win
Clear Fork
Ottawa-Glandorf

Controls own destiny
Milan Edison – likely already in

In contention, but needs help
Pemberville Eastwood
Black River
Lorain Clearview

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Bucyrus
Elyria Catholic

Region 15

Clenched home game
Amanda-Clearcreek – clenched #1 seed
Ironton – clenched #2 seed

Clenched playoff berth
Heath – likely to host, win or lose (likely #3 seed)
West Muskingum – almost certain to host, with a win (likely #4 seed)
Coshocton – likely #5 seed

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Sparta Highland
Zane Trace
Bishop Hartley (plays 7-1 Bishop Ready of Region 20)

In contention, but needs help
Proctorville Fairland
Albany Alexander
Portsmouth West
Portsmouth

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Williamsport Westfall

Region 16

Clenched home game
Clinton-Massie – likely #1 seed
Archbishop Alter – likely #2 seed
North College Hill

Clenched playoff berth
Kenton – can clench home game with a win
Valley View

Controls own destiny
Carlisle

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Jonathan Alder
Waynesville

In contention, but needs help
Milton-Union
Thurgood Marshall

Region 17

Clenched home game
Cuyahoga Heights – likely #1 or #2 seed

Clenched playoff berth
Columbiana Crestview – clenches home game with a win, likely seeded #2 or #3
Independence – clenches home game (and possibly gets #1 seed) with a win over Cuyahoga Heights
East Palestine
Garfield Heights Trinity

Controls own destiny
Youngstown Ursuline – likely at home with a win over Akron SVSM of Region 9
Gates Mills Hawken
Waynedale

In contention, but needs help
Villa Angela-St. Joseph
Mineral Ridge
New Middletown Springfield

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Norwayne
East Canton
West Salem Northwestern

Region 18

Clenched home game
Hamler Patrick Henry – clenched #1 seed

Clenched playoff berth
Defiance Tinora – clenches home game with a win over Hicksville, probably at home even with a loss
Lima Catholic – likely #3 seed, but could be #2 or #4
Hicksville – #2 or #3 seed with a win over Tinora, #6 seed with a loss
Ashland Crestview – likely #4 or #5 seed
Jeromesville Hillsdale – likely #5 seed if Hicksville loses, #6 if Hicksville wins

Controls own destiny
Sherwood Fairview – probably already in, and likely #7 seed

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Northwood – likely #8 seed

In contention, but needs help
Liberty-Benton – plays 8-1 Leipsic of Region 22
Loudonville – plays undefeated Fredericktown of Region 19

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Oberlin

Region 19

Clenched playoff berth
Oak Hill – likely at home, win or lose
Monroe Central – probably gets a home game with a win

Controls own destiny
Fredericktown – probably gets in win or lose, clenches home game with a win
Minford – almost certainly at home with a win
Wheelersburg
Dawson-Bryant
Liberty Union

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
West Lafayette Ridgewood – no, they’re not quite a lock at 10-0 (but very close)

In contention, but needs help
Caldwell
Nelsonville-York

Region 20

Clenched playoff berth
Richwood North Union – clenches home game (and likely #1 seed) with a win
Coldwater – clenches home game with a win
West Liberty-Salem – likely at home, with a win

Controls own destiny
Bishop Ready – clenches home game with a win
Anna – likely in, win or lose
West Jefferson
Casstown Miami East – plays undefeated Ansonia of Region 24

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Hamilton Badin

In contention, but needs help
St. Henry
Columbus Academy

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Cincinnati Hills Christian

Region 21

Clenched playoff berth
McDonald – clenches home game with a win
Norwalk St. Paul – almost certainly at home with a win
Wynford – very likely at home with a win
Mogadore – should be at home with a win and a Warren JFK loss
Dalton

Controls own destiny
Warren JFK – likely #1 seed with a win (plays 8-1 Howland of R5) and should get in (#6 seed) with a loss
Monroeville – plays Norwalk St. Paul

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Berlin Center Western Reserve
Hopewell-Loudon

In contention, but needs help
Tiffin Calvert
St. Peter Chanel – plays 8-1 Lake Catholic of Region 5

Region 22

Clenched home game
Delphos St. John’s – clenched #1 seed

Clenched playoff berth
Carey – clenches home game (likely #2 seed) with a win over SJCC, probably at home either way
Ada – clenches home game with a win over 8-1 Lima Catholic of R18, probably at home either way
Leipsic – almost certainly at home with a win
St. Joseph Central Catholic – needs a win over Carey, plus help, to get a home game

Controls own destiny
Columbus Grove – likely #5 or #6 seed with a win

In contention, but needs help
Arlington
Cory-Rawson
McComb – plays Pandora-Gilboa
Pandora-Gilboa – plays McComb

Region 23

Clenched home game
Malvern – likely #1 seed, with a win

Clenched playoff berth
Columbiana – clenches home game (likely #2 seed) with a win, should be at home even with a loss

Controls own destiny
Bridgeport – likely in, even with a loss
Tuscarawas Central Catholic – likely in, even with an upset loss
Bishop Rosecrans – almost certainly at home with a win
Newark Catholic – clenches home game (likely #2 or #3 seed) by beating 8-1 Granville of R11, but would be #8 or out with a loss

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
Grove City Christian
Symmes Valley
Shadyside

In contention, but needs help
Frontier
Reedsville Eastern

Mathematically in contention, but needs a miracle
Trimble

Region 24

Clenched home game
Lockland – clenches #1 seed with an Ansonia loss, otherwise #2
Ansonia – clenches #1 seed with a win over 8-1 Miami East of Region 20, otherwise #2 or #3

Clenched playoff berth
Fort Loramie – clenches home game with a win over Lehman Catholic

Controls own destiny
Southeastern Local – likely in even with a loss
Waynesfield-Goshen – likely at home with a win, but should get in even with a loss
Lehman Catholic – should get a home game with a win over Fort Loramie, likely in even with a loss
Cincinnati Country Day – probably at home with a win over Cincinnati Hills Christian of Region 20
Marion Local – plays 8-1 Anna of Region 20

Almost controls own destiny (needs very minimal help)
New Bremen – plays 8-1 Coldwater of Region 20

In contention, but needs help
Covington – a win, plus expected losses by Marion Local and New Bremen, should be enough

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