Fantastic 50: Week 10 Projected Playoff Seeds

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Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

Fantastic 50: Week 10 Projected Playoff Seeds


These projected seeds are based on the accumulated results of 10,000
simulations of the remainder of the regular season, computing the
Harbin points each time.

Region 1 Projected Seeds
1) St Ignatius (Cleveland) – clenched #1 seed
2) Solon – almost locked in at #2
3) Mayfield – almost locked in at #3
4) North Royalton – drops to #5 with a loss
5) Glenville Academic Campus – moves up to #4 with a win and an NR loss
6) Parma – could be #7 (or #8/out with a loss)
7) Boardman (Youngstown) – could be #6 or #8, but out with a loss
8) Shaw (East Cleveland) – #7 or #8 with a win, and out with a loss

Region 2 Projected Playoff Seeds
1) Whitmer (Toledo) – almost certain to be #1 seed
2) Massillon Washington – drops to #3 with a loss plus a Twinsburg win
3) Twinsburg – can move up to #2 if Massillon loses
4) Wadsworth – almost a toss-up with Glenoak for #4 seed
5) Glenoak (Canton) – could be #3 to #6, with a win
6) Hoover (North Canton) – could easily move up or down one slot
7) Steele (Amherst) – requires Steele to beat favored Avon Lake
8) Brunswick – needs help to get in, could end up at #7

Region 3 Projected Playoff Seeds
1) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) – almost clenched #1 seed
2) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) – very likely #2 seed
3) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) – could easily be #4 instead
4) Westerville South (Westerville) – could easily be #3 to #7
5) Olentangy Liberty (Powell) – could be from #3 to #8
6) Hayes (Delaware) – could be #5 to out, even with a win
7) Groveport-Madison (Groveport) – could be #5 to out, with a win
8) Lancaster – might be #7 instead or might not make it (win or lose)

Region 4 Projected Playoff Seeds
1) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) – #1 with a win, #2 with a loss
2) St Xavier (Cincinnati) – #1 with a win, either #2 or #3 with a loss
3) Anderson (Cincinnati) – could be #2 with a win, an X loss, and help
4) Elder (Cincinnati) – unlikely to move up or down
5) Wayne (Huber Heights) – assumes a win, could be #8/out with a loss
6) Lakota West (West Chester) – might end up #5, but also could be lower
7) Centerville – could end up #6, #7, or #8, or out, with a win
8) Colerain (Cincinnati) – a toss-up with Middletown if both win

Region 5 Projected Seeds
1) Lake Catholic (Mentor) – no worse than #2 with a win
2) Highland (Medina) – could be #1, could drop
3) Ashland – could get any seed 1-8 or be out
4) West Geauga (Chesterland) – could be #2 to #6
5) Howland (Warren) – could get any seed 1-8 or be out
6) Aurora – could easily be #4-#7 with a win
7) Ravenna – could be anywhere in the lower half (or out) with a win
8) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) – needs a win plus help

Region 6 Projected Playoff Seeds
1) St Francis De Sales (Toledo) – almost locked in
2) Central Catholic (Toledo) – should get #2 with a win
3) Rocky River – could get any seed (likely #2-#6)
4) Rogers (Toledo) – could easily be #2-#5
5) Maumee – could get any seed except #1, or be out
6) Maple Heights – could easily be #3-#6
7) Avon Lake – assumes a win (still could be #6 or #8)
8) Olmsted Falls – assumes a win (could also be #6 or #7)

Region 7 Projected Playoff Seeds
1) Louisville – clinches #1 with a win, no worse than #2
2) Logan – could be #1 with a win and a Louisville loss, otherwise #2
3) Brookhaven (Columbus) – almost locked in
4) Tri-Valley (Dresden) – could fall behind Orange or New Phila
5) Olentangy Orange – needs help to get #4, likely out with a loss
6) St Charles (Columbus) – these last three could be in any order
7) Marion-Franklin (Columbus)
8) Canal Winchester – someone gets knocked out if New Phila wins

Region 8 Projected Playoff Seeds
1) Turpin (Cincinnati) – no worse than #3
2) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) – also in top 3, needs a Turpin loss to get #1
3) Tecumseh (New Carlisle) – could be #1, 2, 3, or 4
4) Trotwood-Madison – needs a win, a Tecumseh loss, plus help to get #3
5) West Carrollton – moves down if Wilmington beats Turpin
6) Wilmington – would get #5 with an upset win
7) Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) – the last three could be in any order
8) Ross (Hamilton)

Region 9 Projected Seeds
1) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) – locked in at #1
2) Poland Seminary (Poland) – locked in at #2
3) Hubbard – these next three could end up in any order, if all win
4) Archbishop Hoban (Akron)
5) Buckeye (Medina)
6) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) – jumps to #3 with a win
7) Padua Franciscan (Parma) – could move up to #5 or #6 with help
8) Field (Mogadore) – could be Bay, if both win, depending on L2 games

Region 10 Projected Playoff Seeds
1) Napoleon – assumes Watterson loses to Mooney
2) Bishop Watterson (Columbus) – gets #1 with a win
3) St Francis De Sales (Columbus) – could be #1 if both above them lose
4) Tippecanoe (Tipp City) – unlikely to move up, could be #5 or #6
5) Perkins (Sandusky) – could go up or down one slot
6) Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) – locked in to #6 or #7
7) Bellefontaine – could grab a top-four seed with a win
8) Bryan – could fall out if St. Paris Graham wins and gets L2 help

Region 11 Projected Playoff Seeds
1) Steubenville – locked in at #1
2) Dover – likely to stay here, even with a loss
3) Buckeye Local (Rayland) – could trade places with Granville
4) Granville – might be #3 with a win, likely drops to #5 or #6 with a loss
5) Salem – could be #6 with a win, will drop (maybe even out) with a loss
6) Northwest (Canal Fulton) – needs help for #4, likely will be #5 or #6
7) Marlington (Alliance) – no better than #7, unless Salem loses
8) Harrison Central (Cadiz) – a Minerva win knocks out HC or Marlington

Region 12 Projected Playoff Seeds
1) Wyoming (Cincinnati) – needs a C-J loss, could end up at any seed 1-8
2) Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) – #1 with a win, no worse than #3 with a loss
3) Logan Elm (Circleville) – could go up or down one seed
4) New Richmond – assumes a win in a toss-up game (likely out with a loss)
5) Monroe – could be anywhere from #4 to out
6) Eaton – could be anywhere from #4 to out
7) Shawnee (Springfield) – in a precarious spot, needing help
8) Goshen – at home with a win, but maybe out with a loss

This region is very tough to predict, as there are nine teams with a great chance individually, and some toss-up games.  I have Washington out, but they’re only a one-point underdog in their game.  If Washington wins, they move up to #4 or #5, and everyone drops, knocking out Shawnee or Goshen.

Region 13 Projected Seeds
1) Chagrin Falls – almost locked in at #1
2) Girard – very likely #2
3) Martins Ferry – could drop to #4
4) Manchester (Akron) – could move up to #3, might drop with a loss
5) Lakeview (Cortland) – could go up or down one slot
6) Woodridge (Peninsula) – no better than this, could be #7
7) Cuyahoga Valley Christian – could be anywhere from #4 to out
8) St Clairsville – this spot could go to any of several teams

If Perry wins, they’re in at #6, #7, or #8.  If Perry or CVCA loses, St. Clairsville might get in with a win.  After that, Belmont, Campbell Memorial, or Cleveland Central Catholic all have a shot.

Region 14 Projected Playoff Seeds
1) Galion – clenches #1 with a win, otherwise could frop as low as #4
2) Genoa Area (Genoa) – Has a shot at #1 with a Galion loss
3) Orrville – Also could be #1, but likely #6 or #7 if they lose
4) Triway (Wooster) – no worse than #4, and has a good shot at #3
5) Edison (Milan) – probably #5 with a win, #7 with a loss
6) Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) – moves up to #5 if Edison loses
7) Clear Fork (Bellville) – likely #6 or #7, could go as high as #4
8) Eastwood (Pemberville) – better chance than Black River or Clearview

Region 15 Projected Playoff Seeds
1) Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) – locked in at #1
2) Ironton – locked in at #2
3) Heath – almost locked in, but could be #4
4) West Muskingum (Zanesville) – unlikely to move down to #5
5) Coshocton – not likely to pass West Muskingum
6) Zane Trace (Chillicothe) – #6 or #7 with a win, likely out with a loss
7) Highland (Sparta) – needs to win to get in
8) Alexander (Albany) – one of several teams contending for the last spot

Region 16 Projected Playoff Seeds
1) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) – #1 with a win, otherwise #2
2) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) – could drop to #4 with a loss
3) North College Hill (Cincinnati) – could move up or down one slot
4) Kenton – could be anywhere from #2 to #5
5) Valley View (Germantown) – could go up or down one slot
6) Carlisle – likely #5 or #6 with a win, but maybe out with a loss
7) Waynesville- probably #7 or #8 with a win, but out with a loss
8) Milton-Union (West Milton) – needs a loss by Jonathan Alder

Region 17 Projected Seeds
1) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) – gets #1 seed with a win, else maybe #2-#3
2) Crestview (Columbiana) – could drop as far as #5 with a loss
3) Ursuline (Youngstown) – #2-#4 with a win, probably #7-#8 with a loss
4) Independence – likely #1 with a win and a Cuyahoga Hts. loss
5) East Palestine – could get any seed except #1
6) Trinity (Garfield Heights) – also could get any seed except #1
7) Hawken (Gates Mills) – likely #5, #6, or #7
8) Waynedale (Apple Creek) – likely #6, #7, or #8

Region 18 Projected Seeds
1) Patrick Henry (Hamler) – locked in at #1
2) Tinora (Defiance) – #2 or #3 with a win, could drop to #4 with a loss
3) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) – unlikely to drop below #4, win or lose
4) Crestview (Ashland) – could be #5
5) Hillsdale (Jeromesville) – could be #6
6) Hicksville – jumps to #2 or #3 with a win, otherwise #6
7) Fairview (Sherwood) – almost locked in at #7
8) Northwood – unlikely to move up, could be out, even with a win

Region 19 Projected Seeds
1) Fredericktown – could be anywhere from #1 to out, but in top 3 with a win
2) Oak Hill – probably in top 4, even with a loss
3) Minford – at home with a win, but likely #7, #8 or out with a loss
4) Monroe Central (Woodsfield) – could have any seed, but likely #2-#5
5) Wheelersburg – could have any seed #1-#8 or be out
6) Ridgewood (West Lafayette) – likely #5-#8, could be out
7) Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) – could get any seed, or be out
8) Caldwell – gets knocked out if Liberty Union and above teams win

Region 20 Projected Seeds
1) North Union (Richwood) – clenches #1 with a win, but could fall as far as #6 with a loss
2) Coldwater – likely in top 3, win or lose
3) Bishop Ready (Columbus) – likely #2 or #3 with a win, but #6 or lower with a loss
4) West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) – could end up on the road, with a loss
5) Anna – could move up or down one slot
6) West Jefferson – could get any seed from #1 to #8, or be out
7) St Henry – could move up or down one slot
8) Columbus Academy (Gahanna) – could get bumped by Badin or Miami East

Region 21 Projected Seeds
1) St Paul (Norwalk) – in the top 3 with a win, but could fall as far as #6 with a loss
2) Mc Donald – in the top 3 with a win, but could fall as far as #6 with a loss
3) Wynford (Bucyrus) – could easily move up or down one slot
4) Mogadore – likely between #3 and #6
5) Dalton – could go up or down one slot
6) John F Kennedy (Warren) – likely #1 with a win, probably #6 with a loss
7) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) – could be #8 or out
8) Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) – might be out, even with a win, if Monroeville wins

Region 22 Projected Seeds
1) St John’s (Delphos) – locked in at #1
2) Carey – should be no worse than #3, even with a loss
3) Ada – could go up or down by one slot
4) Leipsic – could move up to #3, less likely to drop to #5
5) Columbus Grove – no chance at a home game, could move down or out
6) St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) – likely #5 or #6, but could go higher
7) Arlington – could be anywhere from #6 to out, with a win
8) Cory-Rawson (Rawson) – could be anywhere from #6 to out, with a win
Wins by McComb and/or Pandora-Gilboa could knock out Arlington and/or Cory-Rawson

Region 23 Projected Seeds
1) Malvern – clenches #1 seed with a win, no worse than #3 with a loss
2) Columbiana – can be #1 with a win, a Malvern loss, and L2 help; likely to be #2 or #3
3) Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) – assumes a win, but #7, #8, or out with a loss
4) Bridgeport – could easily go up or down one slot
5) Tuscarawas Central Catholic (New Philadelphia) – should be between #3 and #6
6) Grove City Christian (Grove City) – could be anywhere from #4 to out, with a win
7) Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) – could be anywhere from #5 to out, with a win
8) Frontier (New Matamoras) a win by Newark Catholic or Shadyside could knock them out

Region 24 Projected Seeds
1) Ansonia – clenches #1 seed with a win, no worse than #3
2) Lockland – could move up to #1, no worse than #2
3) Lehman Catholic (Sidney) – assumes a win, likely #6 or #7 with a loss
4) Waynesfield-Goshen – assumes a win as a slight underdog, could be anywhere from #3 to #8
5) Southeastern Local (South Charleston) – could easily go up or down one slot
6) Fort Loramie – assumes a loss to be #5 or #6, but likely #2 or #3 with a win
7) Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) – assumes a loss, but likely #4 with a win
8) Covington – Marion Local or New Bremen can knock them out, if either wins

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