Fantastic 50: Week 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities


Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

Fantastic 50: Week 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities

The playoff percentages below are based on 10,000 simulations of the
remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.

a team is shown at 100%, this indicates that they made the playoffs in
all of the simulations (but still may not have mathematically clenched
a playoff berth).  By comparison, the percentage for a team that made
the playoffs in 99.98% of the simulations would be rounded down to 99%.

numbers in parenthesis are conditional probabilities of making the
playoffs, based on finishing the regular season with the specified
number of wins.  For example 8W-19.1-73% means that the team would have
approximately 19.1 Harbin points and a 73% chance of receiving a
playoff berth, if they finish the regular season with an 8-2 record.

are listed in order of likelihood of earning a playoff berth (not by
projected seed).  For each region, the projected Harbin point cut-off
is noted.  This is the estimated number of points the #8 seed in the
region will have at the end of the regular season.

These numbers are only as good as the information on which they are
based.  Incorrect scores, wins later forfeited, incomplete schedule
information (particularly regarding non-OHSAA teams), or even error in
the computational coding could render any conclusions inaccurate.  The
owner of takes no responsibility for any damages
incurred based on the use of this information.

Region 1 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 19.59
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 100% (9W-24.5H-100%)
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 100% (8W-32.6H-100%)
Solon 100% (8W-28.1H-100%)
Mayfield 100% (7W-23.2H-100%)
North Royalton 99% (8W-22.9H-99% 9W-26.4H-100%)
Boardman (Youngstown) 93% (6W-16.7H-3% 7W-20.2H-93% 8W-23.4H-100%)
South (Willoughby) 64% (7W-17.6H-12% 8W-19.5H-68%)
Shaw (East Cleveland) 46% (6W-16.2H-1% 7W-19.7H-75%)
Mentor 42% (6W-18.2H-18% 7W-22.6H-100%)
Parma 27% (6W-16.3H-8% 7W-21.6H-98%)
Warren G Harding (Warren) 11% (7W-18.2H-12%)
Euclid 11% (5W-16.5H-1% 6W-21.3H-96%)
St Edward (Lakewood) 3% (5W-18.0H-6% 6W-23.8H-99%)
North Olmsted 1% (7W-17.8H-5%)
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 1% (7W-16.7H-1%)

Region 2 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 18.77
Whitmer (Toledo) 100% (7W-27.4H-100%)
Twinsburg 100% (7W-22.5H-100%)
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 99% (6W-21.2H-99% 7W-24.4H-100%)
Hoover (North Canton) 99% (6W-20.2H-94% 7W-21.3H-99% 8W-25.7H-100%)
Wadsworth 99% (7W-18.8H-77% 8W-21.8H-99% 9W-24.8H-100%)
Brunswick 85% (6W-17.3H-25% 7W-20.4H-96% 8W-25.5H-100%)
Glenoak (Canton) 74% (6W-16.0H-3% 7W-18.8H-72% 8W-23.1H-100%)
Hudson 51% (7W-15.9H-4% 8W-18.5H-57%)
Perrysburg 35% (7W-17.5H-15% 8W-22.2H-100%)
St John’S Jesuit (Toledo) 26% (6W-14.6H-1% 7W-19.2H-73%)
Steele (Amherst) 15% (7W-16.8H-4% 8W-21.1H-98%)
Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 12% (7W-17.8H-15%)
Clay (Oregon) 2% (6W-18.9H-49%)
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 1% (6W-17.9H-22%)
Medina 1% (6W-18.5H-47%)
Findlay 1% (5W-16.7H-1%)
Anthony Wayne (Whitehouse) 1% (7W-14.8H-1%)
Elyria 1% (5W-16.5H-1%)
Fremont Ross (Fremont) 1% (6W-14.9H-1%)

Region 3 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 18.27
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 100% (8W-32.3H-100%)
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 100% (6W-28.7H-100%)
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 100% (7W-23.7H-100%)
Westerville South (Westerville) 97% (6W-17.6H-62% 7W-20.1H-97% 8W-24.5H-100%)
Groveport-Madison (Groveport) 91% (6W-16.9H-17% 7W-20.0H-97% 8W-23.3H-100%)
Olentangy Liberty (Powell) 81% (6W-16.5H-14% 7W-19.7H-96% 8W-24.1H-100%)
Hayes (Delaware) 80% (6W-15.7H-4% 7W-19.8H-97% 8W-23.9H-100%)
Springfield 56% (5W-14.0H-1% 6W-17.2H-38% 7W-20.7H-99%)
Troy 22% (5W-15.0H-1% 6W-17.4H-38%)
Upper Arlington (Columbus) 19% (5W-16.1H-5% 6W-21.7H-99% 7W-27.4H-100%)
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 18% (7W-17.1H-23%)
Lancaster 16% (5W-13.1H-1% 6W-17.8H-45%)
Westerville Central (Westerville) 10% (5W-15.4H-1% 6W-19.5H-90%)
Worthington Kilbourne (Columbus) 8% (5W-16.0H-5% 6W-22.5H-99%)
Northland (Columbus) 1% (7W-16.0H-2%)
Thomas Worthington (Worthington) 1% (6W-15.9H-1%)

Region 4 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 23.16
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 100% (8W-32.2H-100%)
Elder (Cincinnati) 100% (6W-26.6H-100%)
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 100% (7W-31.4H-100%)
Anderson (Cincinnati) 100% (8W-25.4H-100%)
Centerville 95% (7W-20.7H-2% 8W-24.1H-81% 9W-27.8H-100%)
Lakota West (West Chester) 88% (7W-20.4H-7% 8W-22.7H-55% 9W-25.0H-99%)
Middletown 78% (8W-20.2H-2% 9W-23.6H-73% 10W-28.2H-100%)
Lebanon 62% (7W-21.3H-16% 8W-23.1H-69%)
Colerain (Cincinnati) 34% (7W-17.9H-1% 8W-23.4H-75%)
Springboro 20% (8W-19.5H-1% 9W-23.4H-56%)
Wayne (Huber Heights) 12% (6W-20.9H-5% 7W-26.1H-100%)
Northmont (Clayton) 11% (6W-22.0H-18%)
Loveland 1% (6W-20.4H-1%)
Fairborn 1% (7W-18.4H-1%)
Oak Hills (Cincinnati) 1% (5W-19.7H-1%)
Milford 1% (7W-20.5H-1%)

Region 5 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 18.78
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 100% (7W-20.6H-100%)
Ashland 99% (7W-19.3H-90% 8W-20.7H-99% 9W-24.3H-100%)
West Geauga (Chesterland) 97% (7W-19.0H-64% 8W-19.9H-92% 9W-23.7H-100%)
Howland (Warren) 91% (7W-17.0H-8% 8W-19.7H-93% 9W-23.0H-100%)
Highland (Medina) 87% (5W-18.1H-34% 6W-21.7H-99% 7W-25.7H-100%)
Aurora 82% (6W-16.2H-1% 7W-18.4H-49% 8W-22.2H-99%)
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 42% (7W-18.9H-71% 8W-23.4H-100%)
Copley 40% (7W-17.7H-20% 8W-21.4H-99%)
Cloverleaf (Lodi) 39% (5W-15.9H-1% 6W-19.9H-87% 7W-24.6H-100%)
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 34% (5W-17.5H-20% 6W-20.8H-95%)
Ravenna 27% (7W-16.5H-1% 8W-20.8H-98%)
Canfield 25% (8W-17.4H-14% 9W-22.1H-99%)
Geneva 21% (8W-17.7H-22%)
Roosevelt (Kent) 13% (8W-17.4H-14%)
Revere (Richfield) 3% (7W-17.1H-8%)

Region 6 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 18.55
St Francis De Sales (Toledo) 100% (7W-22.7H-100%)
Maple Heights 99% (7W-20.7H-99% 8W-22.2H-100%)
Central Catholic (Toledo) 98% (7W-19.7H-95% 8W-23.8H-100%)
Rogers (Toledo) 98% (7W-17.7H-51% 8W-19.4H-91% 9W-22.3H-100%)
Olmsted Falls 94% (6W-16.1H-24% 7W-20.3H-99% 8W-24.5H-100%)
North Ridgeville 85% (7W-16.1H-19% 8W-19.5H-81% 9W-23.1H-100%)
Maumee 80% (7W-15.0H-3% 8W-18.0H-63% 9W-21.8H-100%)
Avon Lake 61% (6W-15.8H-16% 7W-19.7H-93%)
Rocky River 59% (6W-15.9H-20% 7W-19.1H-66% 8W-23.3H-100%)
Lexington 15% (6W-14.5H-1% 7W-19.0H-58%)
Normandy (Parma) 6% (5W-12.9H-1% 6W-18.3H-38%)
Sandusky 1% (6W-17.5H-19%)
Midview (Grafton) 1% (6W-15.6H-5%)

Region 7 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 18.88
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 100% (8W-20.6H-100%)
Logan 100% (9W-26.2H-100%)
Louisville 100% (8W-25.3H-100%)
Brookhaven (Columbus) 99% (6W-19.7H-91% 7W-21.5H-100%)
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 87% (7W-17.5H-22% 8W-19.8H-94%)
St Charles (Columbus) 67% (5W-17.2H-11% 6W-20.4H-97% 7W-24.6H-100%)
New Philadelphia 65% (8W-16.7H-4% 9W-18.1H-36% 10W-22.5H-100%)
Walnut Ridge (Columbus) 59% (7W-16.9H-3% 8W-19.3H-79%)
Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) 56% (6W-16.0H-1% 7W-18.0H-30% 8W-22.3H-100%)
Canal Winchester 41% (7W-15.1H-1% 8W-19.3H-72%)
New Albany 8% (6W-14.4H-1% 7W-18.3H-26%)
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 8% (6W-14.8H-1% 7W-18.8H-47%)
Dublin Jerome (Dublin) 5% (7W-17.7H-10%)
Zanesville 4% (9W-17.2H-5%)
Athens (The Plains) 1% (9W-16.6H-1%)
Warren (Vincent) 1% (8W-16.7H-1%)
Beechcroft (Columbus) 1% (7W-16.2H-1%)
Lake (Uniontown) 1% (6W-15.6H-1%)

Region 8 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 14.36
Turpin (Cincinnati) 100% (8W-24.4H-100%)
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 100% (6W-21.3H-100%)
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 100% (7W-19.4H-100%)
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 99% (5W-16.6H-99% 6W-18.6H-100%)
West Carrollton 99% (7W-15.3H-99% 8W-17.0H-99% 9W-20.7H-100%)
Wilmington 85% (6W-13.2H-37% 7W-16.8H-99% 8W-22.1H-100%)
Ross (Hamilton) 83% (4W-12.3H-19% 5W-14.2H-81% 6W-16.5H-99%)
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 82% (5W-12.6H-26% 6W-15.3H-98% 7W-18.1H-100%)
Carroll (Dayton) 15% (5W-10.7H-1% 6W-14.2H-53%)
Walnut Hills (Cincinnati) 15% (6W-11.7H-9% 7W-14.9H-90%)
Harrison 7% (5W-12.7H-16% 6W-18.3H-100%)
Edgewood (Trenton) 5% (5W-12.5H-13%)
Greenville 3% (4W-12.5H-8%)
Northwest (Cincinnati) 3% (6W-12.6H-16%)
Western Brown (Mount Orab) 1% (6W-13.8H-37%)
Little Miami (Morrow) 1% (5W-12.1H-1%)
Sidney 1% (5W-11.2H-1%)

Region 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 19.02
Poland Seminary (Poland) 100% (7W-24.6H-100%)
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 100% (8W-30.9H-100%)
Hubbard 99% (7W-18.4H-71% 8W-20.5H-97% 9W-22.7H-100%)
Padua Franciscan (Parma) 97% (6W-19.3H-78% 7W-20.6H-96% 8W-24.0H-100%)
Buckeye (Medina) 95% (6W-16.6H-27% 7W-19.6H-93% 8W-22.5H-100%)
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 90% (5W-17.9H-49% 6W-21.3H-99% 7W-24.3H-100%)
Field (Mogadore) 88% (7W-18.0H-45% 8W-18.6H-68% 9W-22.6H-100%)
Archbishop Hoban (Akron) 76% (5W-15.8H-10% 6W-19.1H-75% 7W-23.0H-100%)
Bay (Bay Village) 50% (7W-17.0H-20% 8W-19.5H-76%)
Buchtel (Akron) 2% (7W-17.1H-8%)
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 1% (6W-14.5H-1% 7W-18.6H-48%)
University School (Hunting Valley) 1% (7W-15.0H-1%)

Region 10 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 17.21
Napoleon 100% (7W-20.6H-100%)
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 99% (7W-19.3H-99% 8W-21.8H-100%)
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 99% (5W-18.1H-91% 6W-20.1H-99% 7W-23.2H-100%)
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 99% (6W-19.0H-99% 7W-22.5H-100%)
Perkins (Sandusky) 99% (7W-16.8H-53% 8W-18.6H-96% 9W-20.4H-100%)
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 81% (6W-14.7H-7% 7W-16.0H-26% 8W-18.4H-99%)
Bryan 75% (7W-15.5H-17% 8W-17.5H-78%)
Bellefontaine 57% (7W-13.6H-1% 8W-17.6H-75% 9W-22.0H-100%)
Graham (St Paris) 43% (7W-14.5H-3% 8W-17.3H-59%)
Clyde 36% (6W-14.0H-1% 7W-17.7H-89%)
Buckeye Valley (Delaware) 4% (8W-16.3H-13%)
Shawnee (Lima) 3% (7W-15.4H-5%)
Bellevue 2% (6W-15.7H-5%)
Memorial (St Marys) 1% (6W-13.6H-1% 7W-17.8H-74%)
Columbian (Tiffin) 1% (7W-13.9H-1%)

Region 11 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 16.08
Granville 100% (7W-18.4H-100%)
Buckeye Local (Rayland) 100% (6W-19.3H-100%)
Steubenville 100% (8W-29.6H-100%)
Dover 99% (7W-18.3H-99% 8W-22.8H-100%)
Northwest (Canal Fulton) 98% (5W-15.6H-51% 6W-17.3H-98% 7W-19.0H-100%)
Marlington (Alliance) 80% (7W-14.9H-26% 8W-17.1H-92% 9W-22.1H-100%)
Salem 53% (6W-12.5H-1% 7W-15.4H-39% 8W-19.1H-100%)
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 48% (5W-14.7H-18% 6W-16.2H-66%)
Harrison Central (Cadiz) 38% (7W-13.7H-1% 8W-16.9H-89%)
Carrollton 32% (7W-14.9H-22% 8W-17.9H-99%)
Sheridan (Thornville) 23% (7W-13.1H-1% 8W-15.7H-38%)
Licking Heights (Pataskala) 15% (8W-12.7H-1% 9W-15.9H-44%)
Minerva 13% (7W-14.0H-3% 8W-19.0H-99%)
Licking Valley (Newark) 1% (6W-14.4H-3%)

Region 12 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 16.16
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 100% (7W-19.5H-100%)
Logan Elm (Circleville) 99% (7W-18.3H-99% 8W-20.2H-100%)
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 99% (8W-16.0H-52% 9W-18.1H-99% 10W-21.2H-100%)
Monroe 99% (7W-17.1H-95% 8W-18.0H-99% 9W-21.5H-100%)
Goshen 82% (6W-14.5H-10% 7W-16.7H-86% 8W-21.4H-100%)
Shawnee (Springfield) 75% (6W-15.2H-27% 7W-15.9H-57% 8W-20.3H-100%)
New Richmond 63% (7W-13.2H-1% 8W-15.6H-38% 9W-17.7H-98%)
Eaton 45% (7W-13.7H-2% 8W-17.4H-96%)
Franklin 31% (6W-13.6H-5% 7W-15.9H-49%)
Washington (Washington Court House) 29% (6W-15.2H-20% 7W-17.9H-98%)
Jackson 23% (7W-13.0H-1% 8W-17.9H-98% 9W-23.3H-100%)
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 15% (5W-13.3H-1% 6W-16.7H-79%)
Miami Trace (Washington Court House) 13% (6W-15.7H-41%)
Hillsboro 12% (7W-12.9H-1% 8W-15.4H-30%)
Indian Hill (Cincinnati) 11% (7W-16.0H-45%)
Mc Clain (Greenfield) 2% (5W-13.1H-1% 6W-16.0H-41%)
Dunbar (Dayton) 1% (6W-13.1H-1%)
Norwood 1% (5W-12.4H-1%)

Region 13 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 15.94
Chagrin Falls 100% (8W-24.6H-100%)
Lakeview (Cortland) 100% (6W-17.6H-100%)
Manchester (Akron) 100% (7W-17.3H-100%)
Girard 100% (8W-20.7H-100%)
Martins Ferry 100% (7W-20.8H-100%)
Woodridge (Peninsula) 91% (6W-12.1H-40% 7W-13.0H-69% 8W-15.6H-99%)
Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) 81% (6W-11.7H-21% 7W-13.9H-89% 8W-18.0H-100%)
Union Local (Belmont) 57% (5W-9.9H-1% 6W-12.8H-53% 7W-16.4H-99%)
St Clairsville 29% (6W-10.8H-7% 7W-14.1H-81%)
Perry 10% (6W-11.0H-1% 7W-16.0H-99%)
Memorial (Campbell) 10% (7W-12.3H-23%)
Fairview (Fairview Park) 8% (6W-12.7H-34%)
Newton Falls 7% (8W-11.9H-16%)
Liberty (Youngstown) 4% (5W-11.9H-9% 6W-16.4H-99%)
Garfield (Garrettsville) 1% (7W-11.1H-2%)
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 1% (7W-12.2H-17%)
Tuslaw (Massillon) 1% (6W-11.5H-2%)
Beachwood 1% (8W-12.7H-26%)
Sandy Valley (Magnolia) 1% (6W-10.7H-1%)

Region 14 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 15.94
Galion 100% (8W-18.9H-100%)
Genoa Area (Genoa) 100% (9W-18.8H-100%)
Triway (Wooster) 99% (6W-16.4H-93% 7W-17.5H-99% 8W-20.2H-100%)
Clear Fork (Bellville) 99% (6W-16.3H-88% 7W-18.0H-99% 8W-21.5H-100%)
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 83% (6W-14.7H-35% 7W-15.5H-59% 8W-18.5H-99%)
Orrville 81% (5W-13.9H-5% 6W-17.3H-96% 7W-21.1H-100%)
Edison (Milan) 79% (7W-14.4H-11% 8W-15.3H-55% 9W-18.4H-99%)
Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 62% (7W-13.6H-4% 8W-16.7H-86%)
Black River (Sullivan) 38% (6W-14.6H-15% 7W-18.2H-99%)
Eastwood (Pemberville) 32% (8W-14.8H-20% 9W-18.9H-99%)
Clearview (Lorain) 14% (8W-14.8H-18%)
Van Wert 11% (7W-16.4H-88%)
Wauseon 2% (7W-15.4H-33%)
Bucyrus 1% (8W-13.7H-1%)
Keystone (La Grange) 1% (7W-12.6H-1%)
Port Clinton 1% (6W-13.3H-1%)

Region 15 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 15.29
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 100% (8W-24.0H-100%)
Ironton 100% (6W-17.3H-100%)
Coshocton 99% (7W-16.2H-95% 8W-17.3H-100%)
Heath 99% (6W-16.1H-99% 7W-16.7H-99% 8W-18.6H-100%)
West Muskingum (Zanesville) 99% (7W-14.7H-42% 8W-16.5H-99% 9W-18.4H-100%)
Highland (Sparta) 85% (6W-14.1H-29% 7W-14.6H-37% 8W-15.7H-88%)
Zane Trace (Chillicothe) 79% (7W-14.0H-16% 8W-15.7H-91%)
Fairland (Proctorville) 45% (7W-13.0H-2% 8W-17.0H-99%)
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 38% (7W-13.3H-3% 8W-16.4H-93%)
Portsmouth 21% (6W-13.1H-3% 7W-14.8H-28%)
Alexander (Albany) 21% (7W-13.0H-2% 8W-14.8H-30%)
Fairfield Union (Lancaster) 8% (6W-10.5H-1% 7W-15.2H-45%)
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 3% (7W-14.8H-14%)
Westfall (Williamsport) 1% (7W-12.8H-1%)
Piketon 1% (7W-12.1H-1%)

Region 16 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 16.10
Kenton 100% (7W-19.2H-100%)
Valley View (Germantown) 100% (6W-18.2H-100%)
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 100% (8W-18.4H-100%)
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 100% (8W-24.2H-100%)
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 100% (9W-23.8H-100%)
Carlisle 95% (6W-13.9H-2% 7W-15.7H-55% 8W-17.9H-100%)
Milton-Union (West Milton) 65% (5W-14.2H-7% 6W-15.1H-29% 7W-16.5H-80%)
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 51% (6W-15.1H-22% 7W-18.3H-99%)
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 40% (6W-12.7H-1% 7W-15.7H-44%)
Waynesville 35% (7W-12.4H-1% 8W-16.6H-82%)
Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) 14% (6W-13.3H-1% 7W-16.0H-46%)
Brookville 1% (7W-14.8H-5%)
Taft (Cincinnati) 1% (6W-12.8H-1%)
London 1% (6W-12.7H-1%)

Region 17 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 13.35
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 100% (8W-18.0H-100%)
Crestview (Columbiana) 100% (8W-17.4H-100%)
Independence 100% (8W-16.0H-100%)
East Palestine 99% (7W-15.7H-99% 8W-17.7H-100%)
Ursuline (Youngstown) 98% (5W-14.3H-94% 6W-18.2H-100%)
Waynedale (Apple Creek) 96% (6W-12.2H-43% 7W-13.6H-89% 8W-15.3H-99%)
Hawken (Gates Mills) 84% (6W-9.8H-1% 7W-12.4H-51% 8W-15.1H-98%)
Trinity (Garfield Heights) 42% (6W-10.6H-2% 7W-13.2H-67% 8W-16.6H-99%)
Norwayne (Creston) 34% (5W-10.2H-1% 6W-12.3H-28% 7W-15.5H-98%)
Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) 23% (4W-9.9H-1% 5W-12.7H-52%)
East Canton 14% (6W-12.2H-19% 7W-15.7H-99%)
Mineral Ridge 3% (6W-13.3H-55%)
Springfield (New Middletown) 2% (5W-9.7H-1% 6W-13.6H-58%)
Rootstown 2% (7W-12.0H-10%)
Kirtland 1% (7W-10.7H-1%)
Northwestern (West Salem) 1% (5W-11.8H-7%)
Cardinal (Middlefield) 1% (6W-10.5H-1%)

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 12.64
Crestview (Ashland) 100% (8W-15.2H-100%)
Tinora (Defiance) 100% (7W-14.7H-100%)
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 100% (8W-18.5H-100%)
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 100% (7W-15.2H-100%)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 100% (7W-15.0H-100%)
Fairview (Sherwood) 98% (6W-12.7H-72% 7W-13.6H-95% 8W-17.0H-100%)
Hicksville 60% (8W-11.5H-24% 9W-14.6H-100%)
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 53% (6W-9.7H-1% 7W-12.1H-48% 8W-15.0H-100%)
Northwood 52% (6W-10.3H-3% 7W-13.1H-82%)
Jefferson (Delphos) 9% (6W-9.4H-1% 7W-13.0H-65%)
Loudonville 8% (6W-8.7H-1% 7W-12.8H-60%)
Riverdale (Mt. Blanchard) 7% (6W-9.8H-1% 7W-12.7H-52%)
Liberty Center 5% (7W-11.3H-10%)
Oberlin 3% (7W-11.5H-14%)
Archbold 3% (7W-11.7H-17%)
Lakota (Kansas) 1% (5W-9.4H-1% 6W-12.0H-25%)
Columbia (Columbia Station) 1% (6W-10.6H-2%)
Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) 1% (6W-10.2H-1%)
Allen East (Harrod) 1% (5W-10.0H-1%)

Region 19 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 16.95
Oak Hill 100% (9W-18.1H-100%)
Fredericktown 99% (8W-16.8H-84% 9W-18.0H-98% 10W-20.9H-100%)
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 99% (7W-16.2H-58% 8W-17.5H-86% 9W-20.2H-99%)
Minford 88% (6W-14.7H-3% 7W-17.4H-82% 8W-20.7H-100%)
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 84% (7W-15.9H-41% 8W-16.7H-64% 9W-20.1H-100%)
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 77% (8W-13.4H-1% 9W-15.8H-33% 10W-19.4H-99%)
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 76% (7W-16.2H-48% 8W-17.1H-75% 9W-20.8H-100%)
Wheelersburg 72% (7W-16.1H-36% 8W-19.5H-99%)
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 60% (8W-15.3H-13% 9W-18.7H-99%)
Caldwell 35% (7W-14.7H-2% 8W-17.5H-79%)
Valley (Lucasville) 10% (8W-14.9H-1% 9W-18.3H-99%)
Barnesville 1% (7W-14.6H-2%)
Fort Frye (Beverly) 1% (8W-14.8H-1%)

Region 20 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 16.31
Coldwater 100% (8W-19.7H-100%)
North Union (Richwood) 99% (8W-16.2H-68% 9W-19.1H-100%)
Anna 96% (7W-14.6H-15% 8W-17.2H-94% 9W-19.7H-100%)
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 89% (8W-15.7H-34% 9W-16.8H-78% 10W-20.0H-100%)
Badin (Hamilton) 82% (6W-14.9H-19% 7W-17.6H-96% 8W-20.4H-100%)
St Henry 73% (6W-15.7H-38% 7W-16.4H-69% 8W-20.2H-100%)
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 68% (6W-12.8H-1% 7W-16.4H-60% 8W-20.1H-100%)
West Jefferson 58% (8W-16.2H-57% 9W-20.0H-100%)
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 44% (7W-13.9H-3% 8W-16.6H-73%)
Miami East (Casstown) 43% (8W-14.4H-4% 9W-18.0H-99%)
Mechanicsburg 40% (7W-13.4H-1% 8W-17.0H-91%)
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 9% (7W-15.2H-13%)
East Clinton (Lees Creek) 1% (7W-14.5H-2%)
Fairbanks (Milford Center) 1% (8W-13.6H-1%)
Versailles 1% (7W-13.5H-1%)

Region 21 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 13.44
Wynford (Bucyrus) 100% (9W-17.9H-100%)
Mc Donald 100% (8W-14.8H-100%)
St Paul (Norwalk) 100% (9W-16.5H-100%)
Mogadore 99% (7W-14.5H-99% 8W-15.4H-99% 9W-17.9H-100%)
Dalton 99% (7W-13.5H-97% 8W-15.0H-99% 9W-17.6H-100%)
John F Kennedy (Warren) 99% (6W-13.7H-98% 7W-15.8H-99% 8W-20.5H-100%)
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 94% (6W-11.3H-13% 7W-12.5H-79% 8W-14.5H-98%)
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 86% (7W-10.4H-1% 8W-12.4H-75% 9W-14.6H-99%)
Calvert (Tiffin) 10% (6W-12.2H-20%)
Monroeville 8% (7W-11.6H-4% 8W-15.3H-100%)
Lowellville 1% (6W-11.8H-11%)
St Peter Chanel (Bedford) 1% (5W-10.3H-1% 6W-15.2H-96%)
Seneca East (Attica) 1% (6W-10.5H-1%)

Region 22 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 11.88
Ada 100% (8W-15.0H-100%)
Carey 100% (8W-16.4H-100%)
St John’s (Delphos) 100% (8W-20.1H-100%)
Leipsic 98% (7W-12.1H-85% 8W-14.9H-100%)
Columbus Grove 93% (5W-10.3H-12% 6W-12.2H-88% 7W-14.0H-100%)
Cory-Rawson (Rawson) 88% (6W-11.2H-27% 7W-12.2H-88% 8W-15.2H-100%)
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 88% (7W-11.8H-63% 8W-13.9H-99% 9W-17.6H-100%)
Arlington 61% (6W-10.7H-12% 7W-12.0H-78%)
Toledo Christian (Toledo) 28% (7W-9.7H-1% 8W-12.3H-83%)
Mc Comb 28% (6W-9.4H-1% 7W-11.6H-40%)
Pandora-Gilboa (Pandora) 9% (6W-9.9H-1% 7W-12.4H-79%)
Edgerton 7% (7W-10.5H-3% 8W-13.8H-100%)
Mohawk (Sycamore) 1% (5W-9.8H-1%)

Region 23 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 10.54
Malvern 100% (8W-14.1H-100%)
Columbiana 99% (6W-11.7H-99% 7W-12.2H-99% 8W-13.7H-100%)
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 90% (7W-10.4H-65% 8W-13.3H-100%)
Grove City Christian (Grove City) 88% (7W-9.6H-33% 8W-9.9H-35% 9W-11.2H-92%)
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 81% (7W-9.7H-14% 8W-11.2H-97%)
Frontier (New Matamoras) 78% (6W-10.2H-43% 7W-11.3H-92% 8W-14.8H-100%)
Bridgeport 64% (7W-9.5H-4% 8W-10.4H-43% 9W-12.2H-99%)
Shadyside 64% (4W-8.3H-1% 5W-11.1H-83% 6W-13.9H-100%)
Tuscarawas Central Catholic (New Philadelphia) 63% (5W-9.5H-10% 6W-9.9H-26% 7W-11.9H-99%)
Newark Catholic (Newark) 44% (6W-10.1H-33% 7W-14.4H-100%)
Wellsville 18% (7W-8.4H-1% 8W-10.1H-28%)
Eastern (Reedsville) 5% (6W-9.9H-14%)
Southern (Racine) 4% (6W-8.6H-1% 7W-10.8H-68%)
Leetonia 1% (7W-11.2H-85%)
Trimble (Glouster) 1% (6W-9.2H-1%)
South Gallia (Crown City) 1% (5W-10.0H-21%)

Region 24 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 11.25
Ansonia 100% (8W-14.2H-100%)
Lockland 100% (8W-18.2H-100%)
Fort Loramie 99% (7W-12.1H-99% 8W-14.3H-100%)
Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 99% (7W-11.4H-88% 8W-12.4H-99% 9W-15.3H-100%)
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 99% (5W-10.9H-70% 6W-12.7H-99% 7W-15.9H-100%)
Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) 97% (6W-11.3H-84% 7W-12.1H-97% 8W-15.2H-100%)
Southeastern Local (South Charleston) 93% (6W-10.0H-41% 7W-11.6H-91% 8W-13.6H-100%)
Covington 61% (6W-9.4H-11% 7W-11.4H-85%)
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 35% (4W-10.7H-31% 5W-13.9H-100%)
Mississinawa Valley (Union City) 8% (6W-8.9H-1% 7W-11.4H-81%)
New Bremen 4% (5W-8.0H-1% 6W-11.7H-88%)
Catholic Central (Springfield) 1% (6W-9.7H-4%)

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