Fantastic 50: Week 8 Playoff Berth Probabilities


Drew Pasteur’s Playoff Odds

Fantasitc 50: Week 8 Playoff Berth Probabilities

The playoff percentages below are based on 10,000 simulations of the
remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.

a team is shown at 100%, this indicates that they made the playoffs in
all of the simulations (but still may not have mathematically clenched
a playoff berth).  By comparison, the percentage for a team that made
the playoffs in 99.98% of the simulations would be rounded down to 99%.

numbers in parenthesis are conditional probabilities of making the
playoffs, based on finishing the regular season with the specified
number of wins.  For example 8W-19.1-73% means that the team would have
approximately 19.1 Harbin points and a 73% chance of receiving a
playoff berth, if they finish the regular season with an 8-2 record.

are listed in order of likelihood of earning a playoff berth (not by
projected seed).  For each region, the projected Harbin point cut-off
is noted.  This is the estimated number of points the #8 seed in the
region will have at the end of the regular season.

These numbers are only as good as the information on which they are
based.  Incorrect scores, wins later forfeited, incomplete schedule
information (particularly regarding non-OHSAA teams), or even error in
the computational coding could render any conclusions inaccurate.  The
owner of takes no responsibility for any damages
incurred based on the use of this information.

Region 1 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 19.93
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 100% (7W-29.2-100%)
Solon 100% (7W-26.1-100%)
Mayfield 99% (6W-20.2-83% 7W-22.9-99% 8W-25.9-100%)
North Royalton 99% (7W-20.4-70% 8W-22.9-98% 9W-25.9-100%)
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 99% (8W-19.4-57% 9W-23.6-99%)
Shaw (East Cleveland) 64% (6W-17.6-3% 7W-21.0-96%)
Warren G Harding (Warren) 51% (6W-16.3-1% 7W-18.9-34% 8W-23.3-99%)
South (Willoughby) 42% (7W-16.5-2% 8W-19.6-53%)
Mentor 42% (6W-19.1-36% 7W-23.5-99%)
Cleveland Heights 40% (6W-17.7-10% 7W-19.5-44% 8W-23.0-99%)
Boardman (Youngstown) 34% (6W-15.0-1% 7W-19.2-36% 8W-23.6-99%)
Parma 13% (6W-16.1-3% 7W-21.3-87%)
Euclid 9% (5W-16.6-2% 6W-21.0-90%)
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 3% (8W-18.4-13%)
St Edward (Lakewood) 2% (5W-17.2-1% 6W-22.5-96% 7W-28.0-100%)
Brush (Lyndhurst) 1% (7W-18.0-6%)
North Olmsted 1% (7W-18.0-7%)
John Adams (Cleveland) 1% (8W-17.9-3%)
Valley Forge (Parma Heights) 1% (5W-17.5-2%)
Garfield Heights 1% (7W-15.2-1%)

Region 2 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 19.39
Whitmer (Toledo) 100% (6W-22.7-100%)
Wadsworth 99% (7W-19.3-77% 8W-22.3-99% 9W-25.4-100%)
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 97% (5W-18.0-37% 6W-21.6-98% 7W-25.4-100%)
Glenoak (Canton) 95% (6W-17.8-34% 7W-20.0-84% 8W-24.1-100%)
Hoover (North Canton) 94% (5W-18.0-37% 6W-19.8-79% 7W-22.9-99% 8W-27.4-100%)
Twinsburg 93% (6W-16.6-11% 7W-18.6-49% 8W-21.3-94% 9W-26.3-100%)
Hudson 74% (7W-16.3-8% 8W-18.9-60% 9W-24.0-99%)
Brunswick 62% (5W-14.7-1% 6W-17.5-25% 7W-20.4-84% 8W-25.2-100%)
Perrysburg 34% (7W-17.7-19% 8W-22.1-98%)
Steele (Amherst) 13% (7W-17.1-8% 8W-21.2-89%)
Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 11% (7W-18.0-15%)
St John’S Jesuit (Toledo) 9% (6W-14.3-1% 7W-19.1-48%)
Fremont Ross (Fremont) 8% (6W-14.9-1% 7W-19.0-43%)
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 4% (6W-16.6-3% 7W-20.8-91%)
Clay (Oregon) 3% (6W-17.7-14% 7W-22.5-98%)
Medina 2% (6W-18.0-22% 7W-23.6-99%)
Findlay 1% (5W-16.5-1%)
Anthony Wayne (Whitehouse) 1% (7W-15.0-1%)
Nordonia (Macedonia) 1% (5W-17.2-9%)
Elyria 1% (5W-15.7-1%)

Region 3 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 19.37
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 100% (7W-26.4-100%)
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 100% (6W-28.0-100%)
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 99% (6W-22.0-100%)
Westerville South (Westerville) 90% (6W-17.6-23% 7W-20.5-85% 8W-24.8-100%)
Hayes (Delaware) 84% (6W-17.0-19% 7W-20.9-95% 8W-25.2-100%)
Springfield 79% (5W-14.5-1% 6W-17.5-30% 7W-20.6-87% 8W-23.8-99%)
Groveport-Madison (Groveport) 71% (6W-17.1-16% 7W-19.8-70% 8W-23.2-100%)
Olentangy Liberty (Powell) 59% (6W-16.6-8% 7W-19.7-70% 8W-24.0-100%)
Lancaster 33% (5W-13.9-1% 6W-18.1-27% 7W-22.5-99%)
Northland (Columbus) 28% (7W-17.3-11% 8W-21.1-94%)
Troy 26% (6W-17.0-9% 7W-20.3-77%)
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 12% (6W-14.2-1% 7W-18.2-29%)
Upper Arlington (Columbus) 8% (5W-15.9-1% 6W-21.5-92% 7W-27.2-100%)
Worthington Kilbourne (Columbus) 6% (4W-14.2-1% 5W-21.2-84%)
Westerville Central (Westerville) 2% (5W-15.0-1% 6W-18.6-44%)
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 1% (4W-12.3-1% 5W-18.5-27%)
Thomas Worthington (Worthington) 1% (6W-15.2-1%)

Region 4 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 23.32
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 100% (7W-28.4-100%)
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 100% (6W-27.7-100%)
Anderson (Cincinnati) 99% (8W-25.6-99% 9W-28.8-100%)
Elder (Cincinnati) 95% (5W-21.7-19% 6W-23.9-85% 7W-28.6-100%)
Centerville 82% (7W-20.5-6% 8W-24.0-75% 9W-27.9-100%)
Lakota West (West Chester) 81% (7W-19.8-7% 8W-22.3-41% 9W-25.0-99%)
Middletown 64% (8W-20.4-7% 9W-23.5-58% 10W-27.9-100%)
Lebanon 50% (7W-20.2-8% 8W-24.0-85%)
Colerain (Cincinnati) 43% (7W-19.3-6% 8W-24.5-90%)
Northmont (Clayton) 37% (5W-19.0-1% 6W-22.1-26% 7W-27.1-100%)
Springboro 16% (8W-19.6-2% 9W-23.3-51%)
Fairborn 12% (7W-18.7-1% 8W-23.4-70%)
Wayne (Huber Heights) 10% (6W-20.9-9% 7W-25.8-97%)
Loveland 8% (6W-18.9-1% 7W-23.3-45%)
Princeton (Cincinnati) 1% (6W-17.1-1% 7W-22.4-51%)
Oak Hills (Cincinnati) 1% (5W-19.3-1% 6W-24.6-98%)
La Salle (Cincinnati) 1% (6W-18.2-1% 7W-23.5-50%)
Glen Este (Cincinnati) 1% (7W-22.4-23%)
Milford 1% (7W-19.4-1% 8W-24.8-82%)
Beavercreek 1% (7W-19.1-1%)
Kettering Fairmont (Kettering) 1% (6W-19.3-1%)

Region 5 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 18.58
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 99% (6W-16.9-15% 7W-19.3-91% 8W-22.3-99% 9W-26.2-100%)
West Geauga (Chesterland) 98% (7W-18.8-71% 8W-19.9-91% 9W-23.7-100%)
Howland (Warren) 92% (6W-14.7-1% 7W-17.5-37% 8W-20.3-96% 9W-23.4-100%)
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 81% (5W-16.8-22% 6W-19.8-90% 7W-23.2-99%)
Ashland 79% (7W-16.8-17% 8W-20.5-97% 9W-24.5-100%)
Aurora 69% (6W-15.0-1% 7W-18.4-62% 8W-22.0-99%)
Geneva 54% (7W-16.4-6% 8W-17.6-28% 9W-20.8-97%)
Copley 48% (6W-15.0-1% 7W-17.9-40% 8W-21.1-99%)
Highland (Medina) 36% (5W-16.2-7% 6W-20.4-97% 7W-25.6-100%)
Canfield 36% (7W-15.3-4% 8W-17.5-28% 9W-22.3-99%)
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 31% (6W-14.7-1% 7W-19.2-80% 8W-23.7-100%)
Roosevelt (Kent) 27% (7W-14.5-1% 8W-17.8-36%)
Ravenna 25% (7W-16.1-1% 8W-20.5-97%)
Cloverleaf (Lodi) 23% (5W-16.0-5% 6W-19.2-74% 7W-24.4-100%)
Revere (Richfield) 2% (7W-16.5-7%)
Garfield (Akron) 1% (7W-15.8-1%)
Barberton 1% (6W-15.9-1%)
Tallmadge 1% (5W-14.9-1%)

Region 6 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 18.15
St Francis De Sales (Toledo) 100% (7W-21.5-100%)
Central Catholic (Toledo) 99% (7W-20.4-99% 8W-24.6-100%)
Maple Heights 98% (6W-17.9-74% 7W-19.6-94% 8W-22.4-99% 9W-26.0-100%)
Rogers (Toledo) 97% (6W-15.0-12% 7W-16.8-48% 8W-19.5-97% 9W-22.5-100%)
Olmsted Falls 95% (5W-14.5-1% 6W-16.2-31% 7W-19.9-99% 8W-23.9-100%)
North Ridgeville 91% (6W-15.0-7% 7W-16.9-38% 8W-20.0-92% 9W-23.5-100%)
Maumee 74% (7W-15.4-16% 8W-18.4-75% 9W-21.9-100%)
Rocky River 62% (5W-15.0-7% 6W-16.2-28% 7W-19.4-83% 8W-23.5-100%)
Avon Lake 48% (6W-15.7-15% 7W-19.3-88%)
Lexington 15% (6W-14.4-3% 7W-18.4-57%)
Normandy (Parma) 4% (5W-13.1-1% 6W-18.3-54%)
Westlake 3% (5W-13.8-1% 6W-17.2-34%)
Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) 3% (6W-16.7-22%)
Avon 3% (7W-16.4-14%)
Sandusky 2% (5W-13.4-1% 6W-17.7-32%)
Springfield (Holland) 2% (5W-13.7-1% 6W-18.1-52%)
Midview (Grafton) 1% (6W-15.9-11%)
Bowling Green 1% (5W-16.0-13%)
Sylvania Northview (Sylvania) 1% (6W-16.5-11%)

Region 7 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 19.20
Logan 100% (8W-22.8-100%)
Louisville 100% (7W-24.4-100%)
Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) 85% (6W-16.6-6% 7W-18.7-52% 8W-22.1-99% 9W-26.0-100%)
Brookhaven (Columbus) 81% (6W-17.0-4% 7W-19.5-67% 8W-23.6-100%)
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 63% (8W-17.9-19% 9W-22.0-99%)
St Charles (Columbus) 60% (4W-16.1-1% 5W-18.7-47% 6W-21.4-94% 7W-24.7-100%)
New Philadelphia 57% (9W-17.9-23% 10W-22.2-99%)
Athens (The Plains) 51% (9W-17.7-15% 10W-21.5-99%)
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 47% (7W-16.4-5% 8W-20.5-89%)
Canal Winchester 36% (7W-15.2-1% 8W-19.4-63%)
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 36% (6W-15.1-1% 7W-18.4-31% 8W-22.1-99%)
Walnut Ridge (Columbus) 36% (7W-16.7-3% 8W-19.5-68%)
Beechcroft (Columbus) 32% (7W-15.9-1% 8W-20.3-96%)
Zanesville 8% (9W-17.7-11%)
Dublin Jerome (Dublin) 5% (7W-18.0-13%)
New Albany 2% (7W-17.9-15%)
Independence (Columbus) 1% (7W-17.4-9%)
Warren (Vincent) 1% (8W-16.7-6% 9W-21.8-100%)
Dublin Scioto (Dublin) 1% (6W-16.9-1%)
Lake (Uniontown) 1% (6W-15.4-1%)
Briggs (Columbus) 1% (6W-16.3-1%)

Region 8 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 13.45
Turpin (Cincinnati) 100% (8W-24.7-100%)
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 100% (5W-16.3-100%)
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 100% (7W-19.6-100%)
West Carrollton 99% (6W-13.9-85% 7W-15.7-99% 8W-17.6-100%)
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 98% (4W-12.7-64% 5W-14.6-95% 6W-18.6-100%)
Ross (Hamilton) 89% (4W-11.3-6% 5W-13.6-67% 6W-16.3-99% 7W-19.4-100%)
Wilmington 80% (5W-11.1-5% 6W-13.9-77% 7W-16.8-99% 8W-22.1-100%)
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 44% (5W-11.8-22% 6W-14.9-94% 7W-18.0-99%)
Walnut Hills (Cincinnati) 23% (5W-10.0-3% 6W-12.4-37% 7W-15.3-98%)
Northwest (Cincinnati) 21% (6W-11.7-15% 7W-14.9-98%)
Carroll (Dayton) 10% (5W-11.0-3% 6W-14.3-77%)
Little Miami (Morrow) 9% (5W-12.0-16% 6W-17.2-99%)
Edgewood (Trenton) 8% (5W-12.1-20%)
Greenville 7% (4W-13.1-46%)
Kings (Kings Mills) 4% (4W-8.9-1% 5W-12.3-28%)
Harrison 4% (4W-9.9-1% 5W-13.2-45% 6W-18.7-100%)
Sidney 1% (5W-11.7-9%)
Western Brown (Mount Orab) 1% (5W-10.3-1% 6W-14.1-70%)
Teays Valley (Ashville) 1% (5W-12.5-22%)
Talawanda (Oxford) 1% (4W-11.1-2%)
Meadowdale (Dayton) 1% (5W-11.9-6%)
Amelia (Batavia) 1% (4W-12.6-22%)
Piqua 1% (5W-9.5-1%)

Region 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 18.66
Poland Seminary (Poland) 100% (7W-23.2-100%)
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 100% (7W-26.0-100%)
Hubbard 99% (6W-16.2-46% 7W-18.2-79% 8W-20.4-97% 9W-22.9-99%)
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 95% (5W-17.7-69% 6W-21.2-99% 7W-24.5-100%)
Field (Mogadore) 94% (7W-16.9-54% 8W-18.5-84% 9W-22.4-100%)
Padua Franciscan (Parma) 94% (5W-16.3-39% 6W-17.8-69% 7W-20.2-96% 8W-23.7-100%)
Buckeye (Medina) 92% (5W-14.0-9% 6W-16.6-47% 7W-19.3-93% 8W-22.0-99%)
Archbishop Hoban (Akron) 91% (5W-16.0-35% 6W-19.2-89% 7W-23.2-100%)
Bay (Bay Village) 23% (7W-16.5-13% 8W-19.5-76%)
Buchtel (Akron) 8% (7W-16.8-13% 8W-19.7-79%)
Springfield (Akron) 1% (8W-17.1-14%)
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 1% (6W-14.3-1% 7W-18.3-56%)
Niles Mc Kinley (Niles) 1% (6W-14.8-1% 7W-19.0-69%)
University School (Hunting Valley) 1% (7W-14.6-1%)
West Branch (Beloit) 1% (6W-14.5-1%)
Jefferson Area (Jefferson) 1% (6W-14.1-1%)

Region 10 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 16.86
Perkins (Sandusky) 99% (7W-17.4-82% 8W-18.9-98% 9W-20.9-100%)
Napoleon 99% (6W-17.3-85% 7W-20.4-100%)
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 99% (5W-17.2-75% 6W-18.5-97% 7W-21.8-100%)
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 99% (6W-16.8-60% 7W-17.6-89% 8W-20.0-99% 9W-25.2-100%)
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 90% (5W-14.9-13% 6W-18.1-94% 7W-21.6-100%)
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 85% (6W-13.9-3% 7W-15.6-26% 8W-18.8-99% 9W-22.9-100%)
Graham (St Paris) 59% (7W-14.3-4% 8W-17.3-81%)
Bryan 58% (7W-14.1-4% 8W-17.2-75%)
Buckeye Valley (Delaware) 42% (8W-15.9-22% 9W-19.7-99%)
Bellefontaine 29% (7W-13.1-1% 8W-16.4-39% 9W-21.4-100%)
Bellevue 15% (6W-12.4-1% 7W-16.6-39%)
Memorial (St Marys) 10% (6W-13.0-1% 7W-16.5-32% 8W-20.5-100%)
Shawnee (Lima) 5% (7W-15.5-9%)
Clyde 5% (6W-13.4-1% 7W-17.7-91%)
Defiance 3% (6W-12.3-1% 7W-16.5-27%)
Columbian (Tiffin) 1% (7W-13.9-1%)
Urbana 1% (7W-13.2-1%)

Region 11 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 16.67
Steubenville 100% (7W-23.4-100%)
Buckeye Local (Rayland) 99% (5W-15.9-53% 6W-17.8-93% 7W-20.0-99% 8W-22.3-100%)
Dover 98% (6W-16.3-48% 7W-17.6-90% 8W-22.1-100%)
Granville 90% (7W-15.1-22% 8W-18.0-95% 9W-21.7-100%)
Northwest (Canal Fulton) 71% (5W-13.7-8% 6W-16.2-51% 7W-19.1-99%)
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 67% (5W-15.0-21% 6W-16.8-63% 7W-19.7-99%)
Sheridan (Thornville) 63% (7W-14.0-6% 8W-16.9-69% 9W-20.9-100%)
Marlington (Alliance) 61% (6W-13.5-2% 7W-15.4-30% 8W-17.7-85% 9W-22.6-100%)
Carrollton 42% (7W-15.1-21% 8W-17.9-91% 9W-21.0-100%)
Salem 41% (7W-15.3-24% 8W-18.9-97%)
Licking Valley (Newark) 26% (6W-14.4-5% 7W-17.4-78%)
Licking Heights (Pataskala) 17% (8W-13.5-1% 9W-16.7-52%)
Harrison Central (Cadiz) 14% (7W-13.9-2% 8W-17.2-78%)
Minerva 9% (7W-14.6-10% 8W-19.5-99%)
West Holmes (Millersburg) 1% (5W-14.5-6%)
Canton South (Canton) 1% (4W-12.6-1%)
John Glenn (New Concord) 1% (5W-14.2-3%)

Region 12 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 15.79
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 99% (6W-18.2-100%)
Logan Elm (Circleville) 99% (6W-16.3-87% 7W-18.1-99% 8W-20.1-100%)
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 99% (8W-15.7-52% 9W-17.5-98% 10W-20.6-100%)
Monroe 98% (6W-14.9-43% 7W-16.0-75% 8W-18.5-99% 9W-21.9-100%)
New Richmond 89% (7W-13.0-5% 8W-15.4-47% 9W-18.1-97% 10W-20.5-100%)
Franklin 72% (6W-13.8-17% 7W-16.2-67% 8W-19.3-99%)
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 44% (5W-12.9-3% 6W-16.0-67% 7W-19.3-100%)
Goshen 40% (6W-12.8-4% 7W-17.1-94% 8W-21.6-100%)
Washington (Washington Court House) 28% (5W-11.9-1% 6W-14.9-30% 7W-18.0-96% 8W-22.3-100%)
Eaton 28% (7W-14.2-18% 8W-17.8-99%)
Miami Trace (Washington Court House) 21% (5W-12.7-2% 6W-15.9-66%)
Jackson 21% (7W-13.1-5% 8W-17.9-98% 9W-23.2-100%)
Shawnee (Springfield) 19% (6W-11.5-1% 7W-15.7-47% 8W-20.7-100%)
Indian Hill (Cincinnati) 16% (6W-11.4-1% 7W-16.0-59%)
Mc Clain (Greenfield) 14% (5W-12.6-1% 6W-15.5-47% 7W-18.2-99%)
Hillsboro 6% (7W-12.4-2% 8W-15.4-42%)
Dunbar (Dayton) 3% (6W-11.9-1% 7W-15.3-32%)
Bethel-Tate (Bethel) 1% (7W-12.9-2%)
Kenton Ridge (Springfield) 1% (6W-13.9-4%)
Norwood 1% (5W-12.0-1%)
Waverly 1% (6W-13.1-2%)
Circleville 1% (5W-12.5-1%)

Region 13 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 14.88
Chagrin Falls 100% (7W-19.7-100%)
Girard 99% (7W-17.4-98% 8W-19.3-100%)
Lakeview (Cortland) 99% (5W-15.8-95% 6W-17.3-99% 7W-19.2-100%)
Martins Ferry 99% (6W-16.4-94% 7W-18.3-99% 8W-21.9-100%)
Woodridge (Peninsula) 98% (7W-13.7-43% 8W-15.8-91% 9W-18.3-99%)
Manchester (Akron) 97% (6W-13.8-28% 7W-15.0-60% 8W-18.0-98% 9W-21.3-100%)
Union Local (Belmont) 58% (6W-13.2-24% 7W-16.5-93% 8W-20.1-99%)
Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) 44% (6W-12.2-6% 7W-13.8-39% 8W-17.8-99%)
St Clairsville 33% (6W-11.5-5% 7W-14.5-54% 8W-18.0-98%)
Perry 22% (6W-10.2-1% 7W-14.3-46% 8W-18.8-99%)
Fairview (Fairview Park) 20% (6W-13.1-14% 7W-16.7-89%)
Memorial (Campbell) 8% (7W-12.4-4% 8W-16.7-88%)
Liberty (Youngstown) 6% (5W-12.1-2% 6W-16.4-82% 7W-20.8-100%)
Garfield (Garrettsville) 5% (8W-12.9-8%)
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 4% (7W-12.5-9% 8W-15.7-71%)
Tuslaw (Massillon) 3% (6W-11.7-1% 7W-15.6-70%)
Newton Falls 1% (8W-11.9-2%)
Beachwood 1% (8W-10.2-1% 9W-14.1-38%)
Brooklyn 1% (6W-12.0-2%)

Region 14 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 15.83
Genoa Area (Genoa) 99% (9W-17.5-99% 10W-20.4-100%)
Clear Fork (Bellville) 99% (6W-16.7-91% 7W-18.7-99% 8W-22.4-100%)
Galion 99% (7W-16.2-82% 8W-18.3-99% 9W-20.8-100%)
Triway (Wooster) 98% (5W-13.8-17% 6W-14.9-44% 7W-17.3-99% 8W-19.8-100%)
Edison (Milan) 91% (6W-13.1-9% 7W-14.5-25% 8W-15.9-77% 9W-18.3-99%)
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 85% (6W-14.0-20% 7W-15.8-71% 8W-18.3-99%)
Orrville 83% (4W-12.9-1% 5W-14.4-29% 6W-17.3-97% 7W-21.4-100%)
Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 55% (7W-13.6-9% 8W-16.5-82%)
Clearview (Lorain) 35% (7W-12.5-2% 8W-15.3-44%)
Black River (Sullivan) 23% (5W-12.2-1% 6W-15.0-28% 7W-18.1-99%)
Eastwood (Pemberville) 22% (8W-14.2-11% 9W-18.3-99%)
Van Wert 4% (6W-12.9-1% 7W-16.4-90%)
Wauseon 1% (7W-15.3-29%)
Fostoria 1% (6W-15.4-32%)
Bucyrus 1% (8W-13.5-2%)
Wellington 1% (6W-13.8-3%)
Keystone (La Grange) 1% (7W-13.1-2%)
Lake (Millbury) 1% (8W-13.7-2%)
Port Clinton 1% (6W-13.4-1%)

Region 15 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 15.43
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 100% (7W-21.7-100%)
West Muskingum (Zanesville) 99% (6W-14.8-82% 7W-15.5-72% 8W-17.3-99% 9W-19.3-100%)
Ironton 99% (5W-13.5-10% 6W-17.2-96% 7W-21.1-100%)
Heath 97% (6W-14.9-52% 7W-15.7-75% 8W-17.9-99% 9W-21.9-100%)
Coshocton 96% (6W-14.3-31% 7W-15.1-56% 8W-16.9-97% 9W-21.2-100%)
Zane Trace (Chillicothe) 64% (7W-14.0-16% 8W-15.8-78%)
Alexander (Albany) 50% (8W-14.2-20% 9W-16.2-85%)
Portsmouth 42% (6W-13.5-8% 7W-15.1-44% 8W-18.7-100%)
Fairland (Proctorville) 42% (7W-13.2-8% 8W-16.8-96%)
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 40% (7W-13.9-15% 8W-16.9-93%)
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 28% (7W-14.7-22% 8W-18.0-100%)
Highland (Sparta) 25% (7W-12.5-1% 8W-15.9-73%)
Utica 13% (7W-11.8-1% 8W-15.8-68%)
Fairfield Union (Lancaster) 3% (6W-10.2-1% 7W-14.8-25%)
Westfall (Williamsport) 1% (7W-12.8-1%)
Piketon 1% (7W-12.1-1%)

Region 16 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 16.19
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 100% (7W-21.0-100%)
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 100% (8W-22.5-100%)
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 99% (7W-16.7-93% 8W-17.7-97% 9W-19.5-100%)
Kenton 99% (6W-15.4-53% 7W-16.9-91% 8W-20.1-100%)
Carlisle 98% (6W-13.7-2% 7W-15.7-59% 8W-18.1-99% 9W-21.6-100%)
Valley View (Germantown) 92% (5W-14.7-18% 6W-17.7-97% 7W-21.3-100%)
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 58% (5W-12.8-1% 6W-15.5-41% 7W-18.5-99%)
London 38% (6W-14.0-9% 7W-17.1-82%)
Waynesville 34% (7W-12.7-1% 8W-16.7-79%)
Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) 31% (6W-13.1-2% 7W-16.1-52% 8W-19.3-99%)
Milton-Union (West Milton) 30% (6W-14.4-13% 7W-15.8-44%)
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 19% (7W-15.0-21%)
Brookville 1% (7W-15.1-14%)
Taft (Cincinnati) 1% (6W-12.8-1%)
Madison Plains (London) 1% (4W-12.7-1%)
Region 17 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 12.68
Crestview (Columbiana) 100% (7W-16.4-100%)
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 99% (7W-14.3-97% 8W-18.0-100%)
Independence 99% (7W-13.9-97% 8W-15.1-98% 9W-17.4-100%)
East Palestine 99% (6W-13.6-87% 7W-15.5-99% 8W-17.6-99% 9W-19.7-100%)
Ursuline (Youngstown) 93% (4W-9.9-8% 5W-14.1-94% 6W-18.1-100%)
Hawken (Gates Mills) 93% (6W-10.4-9% 7W-13.0-83% 8W-16.1-99% 9W-20.1-100%)
Norwayne (Creston) 50% (5W-10.7-14% 6W-12.4-55% 7W-15.7-99%)
Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) 44% (4W-10.2-7% 5W-13.0-77% 6W-16.9-99%)
Waynedale (Apple Creek) 38% (6W-9.8-2% 7W-11.9-40% 8W-15.4-99%)
Trinity (Garfield Heights) 35% (6W-10.4-7% 7W-13.1-77% 8W-16.4-99%)
Mineral Ridge 20% (5W-9.4-1% 6W-12.9-65% 7W-16.6-99%)
Springfield (New Middletown) 8% (6W-11.2-15% 7W-14.8-92%)
East Canton 5% (6W-11.2-11% 7W-15.0-94%)
Northwestern (West Salem) 3% (5W-9.4-1% 6W-12.9-62%)
Cardinal (Middlefield) 3% (6W-10.7-7% 7W-14.3-94%)
Kirtland 3% (7W-10.3-3%)
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 2% (6W-11.4-16%)
Newcomerstown 2% (7W-11.4-18%)
South Range (North Lima) 1% (5W-11.2-12%)
Gilmour Academy (Gates Mills) 1% (4W-12.1-31%)
Rootstown 1% (7W-12.2-39%)
Grand Valley (Orwell) 1% (7W-9.0-1%)

Region 18 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 12.72
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 100% (7W-15.8-100%)
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 100% (7W-14.9-100%)
Tinora (Defiance) 99% (7W-15.1-99% 8W-18.1-100%)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 99% (6W-13.2-90% 7W-15.2-100%)
Crestview (Ashland) 99% (7W-13.1-83% 8W-13.7-96% 9W-16.4-99%)
Fairview (Sherwood) 80% (6W-11.0-14% 7W-13.6-87% 8W-16.8-100%)
Hicksville 54% (7W-9.0-1% 8W-11.8-28% 9W-14.8-99% 10W-18.1-100%)
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 44% (6W-10.0-1% 7W-12.2-41% 8W-15.0-99%)
Northwood 43% (6W-10.4-3% 7W-13.0-75%)
Jefferson (Delphos) 23% (6W-9.6-1% 7W-12.1-34% 8W-15.4-99%)
Liberty Center 20% (7W-11.6-17% 8W-14.9-99%)
Columbia (Columbia Station) 8% (6W-10.2-2% 7W-13.6-81%)
Archbold 8% (6W-9.3-1% 7W-12.1-33% 8W-16.1-100%)
Loudonville 7% (6W-8.7-1% 7W-12.6-49%)
Riverdale (Mt. Blanchard) 5% (6W-10.0-1% 7W-12.7-53%)
Oberlin 3% (7W-11.6-17%)
Lakota (Kansas) 2% (6W-12.0-24%)
Western Reserve (Collins) 2% (7W-11.4-9%)
Bluffton 1% (5W-9.5-1% 6W-12.6-43%)
Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) 1% (6W-10.3-1%)
Allen East (Harrod) 1% (5W-10.2-1% 6W-13.6-77%)
Margaretta (Castalia) 1% (4W-9.7-1% 5W-14.0-89%)
Wayne Trace (Haviland) 1% (7W-9.8-1%)
Elmwood (Bloomdale) 1% (5W-9.9-1% 6W-14.3-81%)

Region 19 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 16.50
Oak Hill 99% (8W-14.8-50% 9W-16.5-79% 10W-19.6-99%)
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 96% (7W-14.8-25% 8W-17.4-89% 9W-20.2-100%)
Fredericktown 95% (7W-13.8-7% 8W-14.7-31% 9W-17.7-95% 10W-20.7-100%)
Minford 94% (6W-14.8-27% 7W-17.5-92% 8W-20.6-100%)
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 89% (7W-15.1-39% 8W-16.6-78% 9W-20.1-100%)
Wheelersburg 80% (6W-13.3-5% 7W-16.4-69% 8W-19.7-99%)
Caldwell 77% (7W-14.6-21% 8W-17.4-91% 9W-20.3-99%)
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 70% (8W-12.8-2% 9W-15.8-50% 10W-19.1-99%)
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 62% (7W-13.5-6% 8W-15.3-36% 9W-18.5-96%)
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 19% (7W-12.6-1% 8W-16.9-66% 9W-20.6-100%)
Barnesville 9% (6W-12.6-1% 7W-16.1-39% 8W-19.6-100%)
Valley (Lucasville) 6% (8W-15.0-13% 9W-18.4-99%)
Crooksville 1% (7W-14.8-9%)
Fort Frye (Beverly) 1% (8W-14.9-16%)
Adena (Frankfort) 1% (7W-14.4-4%)
Shenandoah (Sarahsville) 1% (8W-13.4-2%)
Cardington-Lincoln (Cardington) 1% (8W-13.9-2%)

Region 20 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 15.70
Coldwater 100% (7W-18.2-100%)
North Union (Richwood) 96% (7W-13.7-13% 8W-16.2-82% 9W-19.0-100%)
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 94% (8W-15.5-50% 9W-16.8-87% 10W-19.9-100%)
Anna 94% (6W-12.3-1% 7W-14.7-41% 8W-17.1-97% 9W-19.5-100%)
St Henry 85% (5W-13.7-15% 6W-15.0-51% 7W-16.4-84% 8W-19.8-100%)
West Jefferson 69% (7W-12.3-2% 8W-16.1-83% 9W-19.9-100%)
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 66% (6W-12.9-21% 7W-16.2-69% 8W-20.1-100%)
Badin (Hamilton) 66% (5W-11.5-1% 6W-14.3-29% 7W-17.3-93% 8W-20.4-100%)
Miami East (Casstown) 61% (7W-12.9-4% 8W-14.7-34% 9W-18.1-99%)
Mechanicsburg 31% (7W-13.0-3% 8W-16.7-87%)
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 28% (7W-13.6-7% 8W-16.4-79%)
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 5% (7W-14.2-12%)
Fairbanks (Milford Center) 2% (8W-13.7-4%)
Versailles 1% (7W-13.5-3%)
East Clinton (Lees Creek) 1% (7W-14.0-9%)
Dixie (New Lebanon) 1% (7W-14.9-26%)
Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) 1% (7W-13.5-3%)

Region 21 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 13.53
Wynford (Bucyrus) 100% (8W-15.8-100%)
St Paul (Norwalk) 99% (9W-16.5-99% 10W-19.5-100%)
Mogadore 99% (7W-14.3-98% 8W-15.1-99% 9W-17.7-100%)
Mc Donald 99% (7W-11.8-38% 8W-13.7-93% 9W-16.1-99% 10W-19.3-100%)
Dalton 99% (6W-12.5-70% 7W-13.5-94% 8W-14.9-99% 9W-17.5-100%)
John F Kennedy (Warren) 94% (5W-11.8-36% 6W-13.3-87% 7W-15.4-99% 8W-19.7-100%)
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 90% (7W-10.9-5% 8W-12.8-76% 9W-15.1-99% 10W-18.7-100%)
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 65% (6W-10.5-1% 7W-12.5-41% 8W-14.8-98%)
Calvert (Tiffin) 34% (5W-10.0-1% 6W-12.3-32% 7W-14.9-99%)
Monroeville 9% (7W-11.6-5% 8W-15.4-96%)
St Peter Chanel (Bedford) 4% (5W-10.7-3% 6W-14.5-73% 7W-18.9-100%)
Seneca East (Attica) 4% (6W-11.1-2% 7W-14.5-76%)
Chalker (Southington) 1% (6W-11.4-1%)
Lowellville 1% (6W-11.8-11%)
Ledgemont (Thompson) 1% (8W-10.6-1%)
Lucas 1% (6W-11.3-1%)

Region 22 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 11.95
Carey 100% (7W-14.0-100%)
St John’S (Delphos) 100% (7W-16.1-100%)
Ada 99% (7W-13.2-99% 8W-15.2-100%)
Leipsic 97% (6W-10.8-55% 7W-12.1-78% 8W-14.9-100%)
Columbus Grove 91% (4W-9.1-1% 5W-10.6-25% 6W-12.3-87% 7W-14.1-99%)
Cory-Rawson (Rawson) 79% (5W-10.2-18% 6W-10.9-34% 7W-12.0-75% 8W-15.0-100%)
Arlington 74% (6W-10.5-11% 7W-12.1-68% 8W-14.2-99%)
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 71% (6W-10.0-9% 7W-12.0-70% 8W-14.2-99% 9W-17.7-100%)
Edgerton 32% (7W-10.8-15% 8W-13.9-99% 9W-17.2-100%)
Toledo Christian (Toledo) 23% (7W-9.5-1% 8W-12.1-62%)
Mc Comb 20% (6W-9.2-1% 7W-11.8-58%)
Pandora-Gilboa (Pandora) 9% (6W-9.8-1% 7W-12.2-64%)
Mohawk (Sycamore) 4% (5W-8.6-1% 6W-12.2-69%)
Upper Scioto Valley (Mc Guffey) 1% (7W-9.2-1%)

Region 23 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 10.23
Malvern 99% (7W-11.9-99% 8W-14.0-100%)
Grove City Christian (Grove City) 99% (8W-10.6-74% 9W-12.2-99% 10W-14.9-100%)
Columbiana 94% (5W-9.6-39% 6W-10.2-69% 7W-12.0-99% 8W-14.0-100%)
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 90% (6W-8.6-3% 7W-10.1-62% 8W-11.6-99% 9W-15.5-100%)
Bridgeport 73% (7W-9.3-21% 8W-10.7-71% 9W-12.5-99%)
Tuscarawas Central Catholic (New Philadelphia) 72% (5W-9.2-17% 6W-9.8-39% 7W-12.0-99% 8W-15.5-100%)
Frontier (New Matamoras) 68% (5W-8.9-12% 6W-9.9-48% 7W-11.2-90% 8W-14.6-100%)
Shadyside 60% (4W-8.3-5% 5W-10.6-67% 6W-13.1-99%)
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 49% (7W-9.6-34% 8W-12.8-99% 9W-16.1-100%)
Wellsville 34% (7W-8.6-3% 8W-10.1-54%)
Newark Catholic (Newark) 29% (5W-7.1-1% 6W-10.3-59% 7W-14.1-100%)
Trimble (Glouster) 13% (6W-9.6-18%)
Eastern (Reedsville) 7% (5W-8.2-1% 6W-9.9-40%)
Leetonia 5% (7W-9.5-14% 8W-13.0-100%)
Southern (Racine) 3% (6W-8.3-1% 7W-10.4-62%)
Catholic Central (Steubenville) 2% (4W-7.3-1% 5W-10.4-59%)
Beallsville 1% (5W-9.3-14%)
Waterford 1% (6W-8.8-2%)
South Gallia (Crown City) 1% (5W-8.9-3% 6W-12.6-100%)
Miller (Corning) 1% (5W-8.9-2%)
Fisher Catholic (Lancaster) 1% (6W-8.5-1%)

Region 24 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 11.42
Lockland 99% (7W-13.9-99% 8W-15.5-99% 9W-18.3-100%)
Fort Loramie 99% (6W-11.1-61% 7W-13.1-99% 8W-15.1-100%)
Ansonia 99% (7W-11.5-77% 8W-13.2-99% 9W-16.2-100%)
Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 97% (7W-11.3-79% 8W-12.3-95% 9W-15.2-100%)
Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) 88% (6W-10.5-51% 7W-11.6-79% 8W-15.2-99% 9W-18.8-100%)
Southeastern Local (South Charleston) 83% (6W-9.8-25% 7W-11.3-72% 8W-13.6-99%)
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 83% (4W-8.1-1% 5W-10.1-35% 6W-13.1-99% 7W-16.1-100%)
Covington 70% (6W-9.4-10% 7W-11.7-81% 8W-15.0-99%)
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 57% (4W-10.3-30% 5W-12.8-95% 6W-16.0-100%)
New Bremen 11% (5W-8.4-1% 6W-11.8-67% 7W-15.4-100%)
Mississinawa Valley (Union City) 7% (6W-9.1-2% 7W-11.7-77%)
Arcanum 3% (5W-7.8-1% 6W-10.3-27%)
Catholic Central (Springfield) 1% (6W-9.7-4%)
Jefferson Township (Dayton) 1% (6W-9.0-1%)
Fort Recovery 1% (6W-10.6-18%)
Cedarville 1% ()

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